steveno89

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 02:37 PM) How are they going to be terrible if Robertson, Frazier and Abreu all rebound? Seriously that's like 4 wins if those guys "raise their value by the deadline", if Tilson can do anything positive in CF that probably makes up for losing Eaton by itself. Yea they'll get worse losing Sale no doubt but they wont completely fall to being one of the worst three teams in baseball. For them to win fewer than 70 games not only will Frazier, Abreu and Robertson not rebound, it'll probably means they got worse. Or worse yet Rodon and Anderson fall apart. Or nightmare scenario Q gets hurt. That's just as a team managing to """achieve""" a win total. If you want to talk about the offense falling into the woeful Philles/Brewers/Padres nightmare tier, especially with the great Minnesota Twins rotation serving up meat for 19 games, we are talking a cataclysm on offense. Like an absolute bloodbath where nobody is hitting anything. If that happens then you can bet there wont be much value getting improved for the deadline. Nobody seems willing to rectify this at all. Everyone just seems convinced that all the players they want traded will have MAGICAL years of resurgence and value raising, and that Rodon will have a massive season and that all their losses will become of the GRR VILLIANS like Avi and Tilson. Its all fantasy, its trying to convince yourself that what you want to happen for the Sox will happen. As other posters have said, nobody is talking magical or enormous seasons from Robertson, Frazier, Melky, etc. Even modest improvement or solid performance would help their values at the deadline The Sox are pretty clearly going to be willing sellers at the deadline barring a miracle performance in the first half, and it is not a given that you will have tons of other sellers willing to deal mlb pieces. Abreu could be a big bat at 1B or DH, especially if he is playing like he did in the second half of 2016 Modest improvement in batting average and OBP from Frazier, combined with the power could make him a valuable deadline piece. He brings a veteran presence and could play 3B, 1B or DH. Melky could play LF or DH and provide .280 - .340 numbers with a little pop for a contender Willing to rectify this how? Trade everyone for scraps right now and then do what? The Sox are fortunate you aren't making rash decisions for them

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 03:18 PM) Yah, a guy like Juan Soto would be interesting. Interesting idea Soto is at least 4 years away from the majors, if not more. He was awesome in rookie ball, but is only 18 years old and will need time to develop. The bat and power seem legit though Severino is a defense first backup catcher at worst, at best a solid mlb starter

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 12:35 PM) Oh that's pretty easy. He's been getting worse every year the last three years and last year he ran hot/cold all season falling apart at the most inopportune times. And his stuff doesn't look half as good evidenced by his exploding walk rates and near doubling of the line drive rate off his fastball. You can tell me all you want about his terrific 2011 season, but I dont think it has much bearing on what he'll do in the midst of a clear decline at age 32 with mounting injuries exacerbating his problems. How do you explain Robertson's strong finish to the season after August 12th? He only gave up 2 runs over his final 16 innings 16 ip , 11 hits, 7 walks, 22 k's, only 2 ER to finish the season That is rock solid production

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 11:35 AM) If you only look at the AB's where Jose Abreu got a hit he bat a perfect .1000 on the year! Incredible! Robertson is a case where I am 100% comfortable waiting until June to say I told you so. I hope to god its on a different team, even if they want to compete in 2017 (stupid, but whatever) they are better off shipping him out so hopefully that's what happens. I wonder what Rizzo would've added to the Eaton deal if the Sox would've included Robertson and not stuck to the silly "only sell one a piece at a time" mentality that really doesn't make too much sense. Pretty sure on behalf of all of SoxTalk, we are happy you are not the White Sox GM Hanging onto Robertson and not tossing him into the Eaton deal has been deemed a really good move because he can have nice deadline value on his own

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 11:26 AM) How to Talk Baseball in 2017: 1) Pull up Fangraphs leaderboards 2) Regurgitate Allen definitely isn't an elite closer, but he's also definitely better than Robertson and no WAR figure calibrated to evaluate starting pitchers will convince me otherwise. From August 12th onward Roberston only gave up 2 earned runs in roughly 16 innings pitched with much better peripheral stats I really think Navarro's awful framing shares a significant amount of blame

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 11:26 AM) How to Talk Baseball in 2017: 1) Pull up Fangraphs leaderboards 2) Regurgitate Allen definitely isn't an elite closer, but he's also definitely better than Robertson and no WAR figure calibrated to evaluate starting pitchers will convince me otherwise. Robertson is a solid, mid range closer or could be a very good setup man He's only 32 years old and likely has a few more productive seasons left in the tank Clearly he was a victim of our awful pitch framing in 2016 as his walk rate increased to nearly 5.0 BB/9 He's struck out 10.9 batters per 9 ip, which is really good To say Robertson sucks is flat out wrong, if he controls giving out free passes better in 2017 he should bounce back

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 11:17 AM) There are players I have faith and there are players I dont. Robertson falls into the second category because he sucks. Robertson and Cody Allen produced the same WAR in 2016 (Fangraphs)...does Allen suck too?

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 10:50 AM) That is one massive assumption for a pitcher who is very bad. I think it is reasonable for Robertson to cut his walks down in 2017 below 4.0 per 9 ip Robertson could be one of the better relievers on the market. Every season bullpen help gets traded. Have to have some faith, otherwise this rebuild will be dismal for you

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 10:45 AM) He is convinced he is a reliever. So thus, no top 100. http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/nl/washin...reynaldo-lopez/ Pleskoff seems to think Lopez could be solid as a starter or a reliever FV 55 - A consistent member of the pitching staff

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 10:41 AM) Which goes a long way towards confirming the market that the Sox were trying to trade guys like Frazier, Cabrera, Robertson etc pretty much sucks, and it isn't some ridiculous conspiracy to try to win next year. Robertson's market should be better at the deadline assuming he pitches fairly well in 2017 Contending teams are always looking to add bullpen help for a stretch run. I don't think he brings back a Chapman or Miller type of return, but he could be one of the better relievers on the market.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 10:32 AM) He had Kopech ranked #45 at midseason last year, and wrote that after seeing him in the AFL that he showed top of the rotation potential, so I don't think he sees Kopech as a reliever. http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/pleskoff-s...michael-kopech/ Pleskoff's scouting report from October 2016 on Kopech is pretty much glowing FV 60 - An All Star Quality Power Pitcher

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 10:26 AM) Will he rank Kopech if he thinks he's a reliever? Kopech absolutely has the frame at 6'3" , 205 lbs to start in the majors His floor is as a reliever, but I firmly believe he will stick as a starter and do well

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 10:09 AM) The Tigers were an interesting mention that article. It was a pretty strong rumor that they were looking to move anyone and everyone this off season, even Miguel and Verlander. They moved basically no one. Verlander is still owed a ton of money on his contract and the Tigers want top prospects for him while also trying to contend

QUOTE (Sox-35th @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 07:33 AM) That plan sets our franchise back another half decade. I get what you're doing, but that's not happening. Even talking fantasy those years would big time set our future back. Goes without saying the six aren't dealing moncada or to prospects anytime soon

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 10:02 PM) Lol, that Astros package would make me cry in happiness. That astros package could start the conversation for trout

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 04:09 PM) And as of right now, there really isn't a market for Melky or Frazier. Melky makes most sense for SF, but I don't think management really likes him after 2012. Melky and Frazier could certainly be solid trade chips at the deadline as a rental, especially in the event of an injury Maybe Frazier is having a big season in a contract year? I could see him being an attractive bat to a contender that needs a 3B, 1B or DH Nate Jones and David Robertson could be deadline bullpen help for a contender. Every seasons you see teams looking to add quality pen arms for a stretch run.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 04:07 PM) Who would you guys comp Collins to? Mike Napoli I think is a reasonable comparison to make for Zack Collins

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 04:03 PM) We go from Sale to Holland and Eaton's defense in RF to Avi's defense in RF. Whoever replaces Eaton's spot in the lineup isn't going to have as good a year as him. We have holes at C, DH, CF, basically 2B, and RF (and potentially SS if Anderson takes a step back). This team won't be better. I said magically haha As the roster is constructed today, we probably still win 70 games

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 03:35 PM) I think the Sox should lose a lot of games. People say itsomething OK as long your pick is top10 and that is not wrong but the higher the pick gets the higher the difference in value. The difference between 20th and 10th pick is much smaller than between 10 and 1. Of course plenty of times the number 1 pick busts and the 3 becomes a star but statistically the number 1 overall pick is by far the most valuable. For example the 10th picks produces 6 war over the control years on average which isn't even a league average player and the number 1 overall produces 20 war which is a star player. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...of-draft-picks/ That doesn't mean the 10th player can't become a hall of famer but the chances are statistically much lower. Also every draft pick higher means more pool money which allows for more overslot signings in later rounds (for example difference between first and second overall is more than a million which basically is another second round pick). Of course the rebuild still doesn't hinge on one pick and the Sox can still succeed if the become 7th but the worse you are the the higher the incentive to be really big because the difference between 6th and 12th is not as significant as 6th vs 1st. So the Sox shouldn't lose on purpose but it wouldn't be the worst thing if they make it all the way to first or second overall. Even if we trade nearly all veteran players I do not think the White Sox will be the worst team in baseball. San Diego is trying hard to win less than 50 games with that starting rotation

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 03:54 PM) If all the Sox players have big seasons they won't be a bad team and there will be no deadline selling. If anything they'll buy. This won't be the Yankees last year, not with Ken Williams around. Then you'll get all sorts of nonsense like a big Frazier extension and selling the farm for aging sluggers. I don't trust the same FO that made the Shield's trade to not overreact fo a hot month or two. If the Sox are magically winning in 2017 then you absolutely run with it and see what happens If we are somehow in first place at the deadline then you certainly reevaluate your plans, but I doubt that will be the case. Far more likely that we are 15 games under

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 08:44 AM) Law thinks he's a reliever. I doubt he's on there if we haven't seen him yet. Fansided has lopez at #11 overall, hard to see a guy like that out of the top 100

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 08:29 AM) http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6248 No White Sox in Law's 41-60. I'm expecting just Moncada, Kopech, and Giolito. He has Fernando Tatis Jr at #47. Yes, that Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis jr in the top fifty? Wow

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 04:43 PM) Yeah, I'm hoping NYY or LAD are back in play at the trade deadline. LAD has a slew of starting pitching but also a lot of question marks. It's no huge surprise that BOS and WAS are the two teams to really pay up at this point. Prying top prospects out of small market teams who aren't even sure-fire contenders is a tough climb. Getting Pittsburgh to part with Meadows + significantly more is not going to happen. They totally rely on young cheap talent and cannot afford to sign big ticket free agents generally. The trade match just is not there at this point Boston is primed to win right now and can afford to give up Moncada + Kopech because they will have a multi year window with which to replace those prospects or sign big time free agents

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 04:13 PM) Pretty much everyone left are small market franchises reluctant to trade away a bunch of prospects -- HOU, PIT, COL, ATL. And HOU is really the only immediate contender in that group. Perhaps that changes at the trade deadline with injuries, slumps, etc. Or a team like HOU mighFrankly, the Sox might want to wait and see how t realize they need a SP after all. I agree and have acknowledged that it is unlikely Quintana gets traded before spring training unless a new suitor emerges The small market teams like you mentioned are clinging to their top prospects and do not feel the urgent need as they might in a playoff race The Sox might want to wait and see how some top prospects perform in 2017 before pulling the trigger on a Q deal. He will still have tremendous value a year from now unless he gets injured or has an awful year. It's not always easy to line up two organizations needs and wants in a blockbuster trade. Hard to make each team feel like they "won" the deal

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 02:04 PM) It's become clear to me that a trade with the Pirates is not happening. With Meadows and Bell reportedly off the table and Glasgow having control/command/change-up issues, Huntington and the Pirates are just not a fit. I still think it's possible Q is traded, just not to the Pirates. Still curious about what the Braves may have offered. Not really buying the Newcomb rumor since he's the closest to the majors and expected to replace one of the geriatrics at some point this season. Hahn has 2-3 years to trade Quintana if he wants to The market may very well be tapped out right now and it might actually be best to reevaluate at the trade deadline Fleecing a contender at the deadline would really feel great