steveno89

QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Dec 17, 2016 -> 10:32 AM) Without Sale and Eaton, but with Moncada and a lot of possibilities for the bullpen and rotation , the Sox , at least in theory, have a chance to win a lot of games. Let's assume they do and fans start getting excited like we did last season. Do the Sox then try to plug in a DH or RF player via trade to improve the team or do they try to tank the season by making trades involving Frazier, Robertson and Mellky that will likely only bring back less than elite prospects ? You won't see moncada until late may or early June at the earliest. It would be unforgivable to waste a year of his service time. If the sox are winning, then great. But 99 percent chance it does not work out that way and we are headed for 60 wins

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Dec 12, 2016 -> 12:51 PM) He is completely overshadowed by Moncada/Kopech, but dude is a legit prospect. Loud tools and if he puts up numbers in 2017 I'd expect to see start popping up on the back ends of top 100 lists. If he can take that currently 45 hit tool and bring it up to a 50 grade league average we will be looking at another top 100 prospect that has the potential to stick in center field

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 05:21 PM) Just telling you what I've heard. It sounds like a lot of people, including the Red Sox, put Benintendi over Moncada anyway, and I like Law also puts Devers over Moncada. Moncada has an unreal ceiling. I currently like his abilities better than any other position player prospect because of the legitimate five tools. He will need to reduce the strikeouts, but he also knows how to draw walks. If the power and defense develop, he is going to be a monster in our lineup

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 17, 2016 -> 09:12 AM) This x100000 Sox fans get impatient after a week without another franchise altering move

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 17, 2016 -> 08:41 AM) Probably. I bet he takes a 1 year deal with a lot of incentives though with a decent base salary. I wouldn't mind giving it to him. Rockies and nationals need a closer badly

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 05:07 PM) Might be true, hoping there's a sudden frantic bidding when some team finally provides that final wanted piece and we try to get it countered. Pittsburgh could be a sleeper team, or the Yankees Mets could gut their system with a: Rosario, Smith, Dunn and Nimmo package? Toronto could totally gut their system? Rockies? Astros?

QUOTE (GermanSoxFan @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 04:58 PM) He has no power. Without power his now decent walk rate will go down a lot in the majors. Pretty good fielder and good runner. I just don't see much upside there. His upside (best case) would be that of an above average fielding SS or 2B leadoff type hitter that hits .300 and steals bases That is a valuable player, and he was young for the AAA level by two years, but his struggles in AAA would concern me a little bit He was awesome in AA, but a .650 ops in AAA is reason to think Would I love him in the Sox organization? Absolutely. But, he needs to prove he can handle AAA pitching this season If he becomes the next Dustin Pedroia, I will eat my words

QUOTE (Baron @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 04:53 PM) Seriously that's your ceiling for Albies? With a scouting grade of "20" power, it's not easy to put a ceiling on Albies His ceiling would be Altuve, with far less power

QUOTE (GermanSoxFan @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 04:48 PM) Albies as the headliner for Q would make me livid. IMO his absolute ceiling is Alcides Escobar.. There is not much upside in his bat and we all know the Sox need those kind of bats badly. I like Albies alot, but the utter lack of power does limit his upside considerably. Every other tool it there, and he can be an above average fielder, but I'm not having him be the centerpiece of a Quintana deal Rodgers would be a perfect centerpiece for the White Sox

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 04:34 PM) I don't think that ATL is a serious buyer for Q, I just find their farm interesting for its lack of high end bats but very interesting young prospects in bulk. It is a farm with a ton of potential, but also a ton of question marks

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 04:11 PM) If his catching was up to par with his bat he'd have gone #1 overall. If Collins was a 50 grade arm and 50 grade catcher he arguably would have gone #1 overall I agree

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 03:45 PM) I didn't have much interest in the Braves for Sale because I knew they weren't giving up Swanson. But for Quintana its a whole different story. Albies + Allard alone is tempting, not to mention getting Acuna or Riley thrown into the deal. Allard's back issues do not concern you? Realistically Atlanta is not a serious buyer, as I doubt they would be willing to fork over what it would take to land Quintana My asking price would be (assuming no Swanson): Albies + Newcomb + Maitan + Riley + Acuna Atlanta would balk at that, but I'm not even sure I'd take Albies + Newcomb + Maitan for Quintana. Newcomb needs to get the walks under control, walking a batter every other inning in AA is a recipe for MLB disaster as hitters are much more patient

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 02:59 PM) Catching coordinator is the same guy - John Orton. He gets high marks for his development of defensive improvements for Tyler Flowers (who blossomed into a very good receiver), Josh Phegley (who went from awful to serviceable) and others. Also maybe worth a side note, Cole Armstrong - a former catcher - will be the hitting coach in Birmingham, where I suspect Collins will spend much of his 2017. Collins will start in A+ Winston Salem, but I do see him making the jump to AA at some point mid-late season

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 02:50 PM) I just threw the Rangers out there as an ironic twist to the Astros stance on Q. Definitely not counting on the Rangers jumping in though that could change in July if Q is still in Chicago. Never bought into the rumors concerning the Braves. They have spent the last few years collecting MiLB talent for their rebuild and then factor in the one year wonders they acquired via trade and FA. No team goes out and trades for one year of Jaime Garcia as well as sign the likes of Colon/Danks/Dickey if they are contenders. Those four pitchers were brought in to buy some more time for their young pitching to further develop. I think a case can be made that they might have temporarily tossed their hat into the mix in an effort to drive the price up on their division rival Nat's. The Braves were never serious suitors for Sale, or Quintana for that matter. They seem content letting their minor league talent develop, although alot of it is considerably far from the major leagues (Allard, Anderson, Maitan, Soroka, Wentz, Muller, Riley, Acuna). None of those players project to break into the majors before the 2019 season, if at all.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 02:31 PM) Push for it the next 2 years. I don't see any reason for him to be up before 2019. I see Collins' bat raking in the minors this season. He was aggressively put in A+ Winston Salem after getting drafted and put up .258 avg - .418 OBP - .885 OPS all after playing an entire college season. Small sample size, but impressive Let him work on his defense for at least the next two seasons, and then unleash him in 2019

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 02:27 PM) Interesting to see BA's list here. Collins ahead of Kopech, Basabe at #7, and Adams ahead of Dunning are interesting. But more to the point, I don't think I've ever seen a Sox top 10 list look so good. I don't agree with Collins being ahead of Kopech at this point. If Collins does well this season I can see him shooting up the MLB top 100 rankings considerably though. His bat and patience at the plate are legitimate. If Collins can stick at catcher defensively I really feel like he could be a superstar player. I'm very excited about what he has the potential to become.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 02:19 PM) http://www.baseballamerica.com/viewpoint/r...VWVFZhKWsxKw.97 Man, starting to look good. Soon we may be in place where our 15-20 guys are players like May/Engel that have potential to turn bats around and become major leaguers. It's crazy to think about what trading Quintana, Frazier, Melky, Robertson could do to our farm system Getting super hypothetical here: Q to the Rockies for Rodgers, Hoffman and Freeland Robertson to the Nationals for Pedro Severino and Andrew Stephenson Frazier and Melky get dealt for ???? Still likely getting a decent return New Sox System would look like: 1) Moncada 2) Rodgers 3) Giolito 4) Lopez 5) Hoffman 6) Collins 7) Kopech 8) Fulmer 9) Burdi 10) Basabe 11) Freeland 12) Adams 13) Dunning 14) Stephenson 15) Severino 16) Tilson 17) Hansen 18) Engel 19) Fisher 20) Stephens Fanasty thinking, yes...but wow that would be a deep system

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 01:36 PM) That's true, but the flip side is that the prospects are more likely than Quintana to exceed their projected surplus values. There's more upside and downside risk with prospects, and the projected surplus values, at least in theory, are supposed to take that into account. So you basically get some middle number somewhere between best and worst case scenarios. The range for a Quintana is much narrower. Even still, the known and more proven value is in Quintana over the next four seasons than the combined value of 3 prospects. Sure, one of them could develop into an all star caliber player and it would be a win for the White Sox. If I am dealing 4 seasons of prime Quintana, the return should be along the lines of Sale and Eaton.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 12:39 PM) Rangers system at such an odd point in development. The team that I still go back on is the Braves. Not from a "will they" standpoint as I think their Sale interest was a starry eyed new stadium acquisition ploy, but trying to figure out much value I would put to incredibly high up side incredibly risky players like Meitan or Vlad Guerrero Jr from Blue Jays. But Albies/Meitan, does that get you in door with other teams? Maitan looks like a very good prospect, but he has not even turned 17 yet. There is far too much risk projecting a player that young to the major leagues. Albies looks like he could be a really good player, and I will give him the benefit of the doubt because he is still young, but his 2016 performance at AAA was not great. The speed, makeup and defensive ability are not questioned, but if the bat doesn't play his value will be limited. I don't doubt that he will make the majors eventually and contribute, but he needs to prove he can handle AAA pitching this season to take the next step. Maitan is a toolsy wild card, and a serious gamble. If I'm dealing Quintana I would want a more proven prospect.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 11:31 AM) Add me to the list of surplus value being an overvalued indicator. I would welcome a report on these excess value applied retroactively to previous years of trades to see how accurate they would have been, and that should ultimately ignore performance of trade itself. The method of thinking also looks at a potential trade in a vacuum, and does not consider how multiple suitors bidding will drive up the price

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 11:15 AM) Wow, people overvalue prospects. I don't like that that article doesn't take into account a very important economic concept while using the surplus value concept. This guy puts ZERO discount for risk on the Astros prospects. There should be a significant discount for risk on any prospect, at least 30%. That's the faulty logic in the article The chance that Quintana delivers on his surplus value over the next 4 seasons is way higher than the chance those three prospects pan out and produce. I agree a further risk discount should apply to Tucker and Martes as Tucker has never played above A ball and Martes and never pitched above AA. Proven mlb talent should always come at a premium, and at age 28 it is wrong to assume that Quintana could not provide 5+ WAR seasons. The past three years he has averaged 4.5 WAR per season. age 28-32 seasons are the peak of a players prime generally, right before a decline is expected, it's not crazy to think Quintana could produce 18 WAR the next 4 seasons, or perhaps more.

QUOTE (striker @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:51 AM) here is another good one. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/12/16/13..._source=twitter That article assumes that each of Musgrove/Martes and Tucker will be mlb contributors to a certain degree. Three 2 WAR players do not equal the value of one 6 WAR player, as 6 WAR players are vastly harder to find. That package really underwhelms me compared to the Sale and Eaton returns. If we don't get superior value we should hold out for better

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:42 AM) I agree. I don't see guys like Gonzalez, Frazier, and Melky really bringing much back if it is now or in June/July. An injury in spring training or early in the season to an OF or 3B could make Frazier or Cabrera a very attractive rental replacement for a contender as well. Being able to acquire a capable starter under contract for just 2017 could end up being a godsend if a core player goes down.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:42 AM) I agree. I don't see guys like Gonzalez, Frazier, and Melky really bringing much back if it is now or in June/July. They are not going to return premium prospects, but they are not worthless either. Frazier is entering a contract season, and I expect him to do better in his second season with the Sox. Small sample size, but Frazier hit .281 avg - .341 OBP - .526 SLB with 7 home runs in the final 30 games of the season, a positive sign.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:20 AM) Agreed. Rockies seem to be in "go for it" mode with that offense (or at least should be). Maybe they're waiting a Trumbo or Encarnacion signing before focusing on starting. A Rodgers + Hoffman or Pint + solid third piece (I'm thinking Freeland as we could use a solid left handed prospect in our organization after loading up on righties) If they balk at including Hoffman or Pint, I would ask for Rodgers + Tapia + Marquez + Freeland Those are both acceptable packages for each side that could be considered win-win. Rockies get a #1-#2 starting pitcher under cheap control for the next four seasons, greatly adding stability to the rotation. White Sox get a slew of quality prospects and continue the rebuild