steveno89

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 11:33 PM) I'm actually surprised Johnson is rated so poorly. I expect him to be around #50. Davidson seems fair. Would have expected to see Semien in the 90s, but no big oversight there. Semien needs to follow it up at AAA Charlotte this season and he will be in the big leagues and/or rise into the top 100. He doesn't have one skill that stands out, but seems to be 50 grade or better across the board. I'm a bit surprised that Johnson isn't higher up as well, certainly a top 50 prospect in my eyes. He is 24 this season, and older than many other prospects, but he already has a major league frame at 6'3" 235 lbs. My grades on him are: Fastball 91-94 with decent movement and location: 60 Curveball is more than just a below average show me pitch and should be league average 50 Slider is a true plus pitch for Johnson and he locates it well 60 Changeup 50 and could get better with Cooper's teaching Control 60 Overall 60 I see him being an above average mlb starter who can eat innings with his strong frame. Solid #3 starter with the potential to become a #2 caliber. I like Erik Johnson better than the #56 prospect RHP Jake Odorizzi on the Rays. Johnson has a stronger frame, better fastball and better international league numbers this past year (both are similar prospects overall though and profile as solid middle of the rotation guys) Davidson should start the year in AAA for at least a month or two before he is rushed to the big leagues.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 04:47 PM) Agreed with you up until this point. We have a few, and I would expect one or two more to emerge as real prospects by midsummer. Still, BPA is the only way to go, and I kinda hope that turns out to be a pitcher. Ok take Danks out of the projected starting rotation, it was just an example. But outside of Johnson, what starting pitching prospects do we have that get you at all excited? I like Danish, but still feel his sidearm action and quick release still project better as a reliever long term. Beck hasn't shown the upside to be anything more than a #4 or 5 starter at best in the show. Yes, he did look much better after getting promoted to AA, but this incredibly low strikeout rate at A ball has me concerned. He needs to show solid improvement this year to be considered legitimate in my eyes. Outside of these two, who in our system even projects to make the major leagues as a starting pitcher, let alone excel? While I'd be happy to draft Turner, this shows how much we need to stock up on quality arms in the farm system. I like Keaton McKinney later in the draft, he has a solid frame, the best changeup of all HS pitchers and great control.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 02:18 PM) I'd want Kolek over turner simply because I have more confidence in the Sox turning Kolek into an ace than Turner into Jose Reyes 2.0 But I'd love either if they hit their ceiling. I've warmed up to Kolek for a variety of reasons. The top of the draft is where you can and should be looking to take very high upside pitchers. The cost of quality pitching has gone through the roof in the past five years and you can never have too many quality young arms in the system. After Johnson we don't really have much in terms of starting pitching talent in the farm system, so adding Kolek would be a major boost to future pitching depth. I wouldn't be upset with selecting Turner, but I'd rather shoot for the potential #1-2 starting pitcher and develop him. Sale - Kolek - Quintana - Johnson - Danks could be the rotation of a serious contender in a few years

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 09:20 AM) I think Trea Turner looks like a special player. Hoffman has not impressed me. He has to have a really big year or else he's more like a 2nd rounder to me. I like turner, and he may have the highest floor of any positional player in the draft. I would be happy drafting him knowing his chances of making the majors is very high. In this draft it would be hard to pass up a premium arm though. I still have questions about Hoffman's lack of dominance over two college seasons. Yes he posted a 12.21 K/9 in the Cape Cod league, but also was more hittable than you would like giving up 20 hits in 24 innings pitched with a 3.70 ERA. The 9-9 record, 3.37 ERA, 184 innings pitched, 159 hits allowed, 60 walks, 139 strikeouts, 1.19 WHIP, 6.80 K/9ip over two college seasons concerns me a bit. Yes, I know he changed his mechanics prior to the Cape Cod league season, but his strikeout numbers need to substantially improve before I would draft him that high up. The reason the Sox will draft a pitcher I feel is that outside of Erik Johnson, and possibly Tyler Danish, the farm system doesn't have much in terms of high upside pitchers.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 09:20 AM) I think Trea Turner looks like a special player. Hoffman has not impressed me. He has to have a really big year or else he's more like a 2nd rounder to me. I like turner, and he may have the highest floor of any positional player in the draft. I would be happy drafting him knowing his chances of making the majors is very high. In this draft it would be hard to pass up a premium arm though. I still have questions about Hoffman's lack of dominance over two college seasons. Yes he posted a 12.21 K/9 in the Cape Cod league, but also was more hittable than you would like giving up 20 hits in 24 innings pitched with a 3.70 ERA. The 9-9 record, 3.37 ERA, 184 innings pitched, 159 hits allowed, 60 walks, 139 strikeouts, 1.19 WHIP, 6.80 K/9ip over two college seasons concerns me a bit. Yes, I know he changed his mechanics prior to the Cape Cod league season, but his strikeout numbers need to substantially improve before I would draft him that high up. The reason the Sox will draft a pitcher I feel is that outside of Erik Johnson, and possibly Tyler Danish, the farm system doesn't have much in terms of high upside pitchers.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) I see the Marlins taking Hoffman at #2 overall, leaving us with our choice of players after Rodon and Hoffman. The more I think about it, I take back what I posted in the other board about Kolek. He does have tons of talent and could develop into a #1 or #2 starter in a few years. You cannot teach the physical tools that he has, and I could see either Hoffman or Kolek flourishing in our system

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 01:30 AM) My pick right now for sure is Hoffman. Jackson would be nice if he could stick at catcher. I see the Marlins taking Hoffman at #2 overall, leaving us with our choice of players after Rodon and Hoffman.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 08:42 AM) I want them to pick the best available player. Christian Colon was considered a high floor SS prospect too. He appears to be ready to start his career as a bench player, or perhaps as a AAAA player. Not for the #3 overall pick obviously, but I like each of these three pitching prospects alot http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/1/8/52875...-pitching-a-fit Newcomb will likely be gone by the time we make our second pick, same with Medieros, but I really like the idea of taking Cameron Varga This spring season will do wonders in clarifying how the draft will shake out, and there are always players who have huge seasons and put themselves in the discussion for top picks that previously were not on the radar. I like Kolek, but I don't see them taking a high school pitcher that high up. Rodon will be gone, leaving (for now) Hoffman, Jackson, Turner, and don't leave out Tyler Beede. The definitely can see the Cubs taking Tyler Beede #4 overall since he is reasonably advanced in his development and would only need a season or two in the minors before jumping into the rotation. Kolek would likely take longer than the Sox would like to develop despite having an explosive arsenal. High school arms tend to scare the crap out of me, there's too much unknown to take such a risk that high up for me. I could be wrong on him though. I'm a bit concerned about Hoffman's lack of dominance against sketchy competition in Conference USA. Why isn't he striking out more batters? I need to see a step forward to solidify him as the second best pitcher in this draft, not just hear about his great stuff. Gatewood I am not a fan of because of the questions surrounding his hit tool. The power gets tons of praise, but I just picture him never making enough contact and fizzling out despite being seen as a "5 tool talent". I'd much rather have Turner who doesn't have much power, but will hit for average/plus speed/solid in the field Jackson is an interesting bat for sure, and I could see him developing into a star. His value that high in the draft is really at catcher though, not a corner OF. Corner OF are much easier to find and develop than premium catchers, but due to the doubts about his ability to stay at catcher I think the Sox pass.