steveno89

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 09:42 AM) I disagree with both of you. The idea that it had no value to the player is questionable. Knowing what we know now, they should have not signed and it was a discount. Knowing what we knew then: - Sale was dominant but still very questionable on his durability. He got an immediate raise and guarantee of a certain amount in majors. - Eaton also was injury prone. And after one good year they gave him immediate raise and discounted FA years - Quintana, a pitcher out of nowhere to have a really good two years with no stuff. Same as above. For the players and clubs, they get certainty over the next 6 years or so, with the exchange of some risk. Not every player will want that, but these will still happen. We signed these players before they had the established track record that could help them get a much larger contract. These players decided it was in their best interests to guarantee their financial futures vs. rolling the dice and coming up empty. For a young pitcher the risk of injury is significant and there is no guaranty you make it to free agency. Taking the $30-40 million still ensures that you will be financially secure for the rest of your life, don't discount that.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 09:35 AM) IMO cubs aren’t in a position to care about a two year deal. This is their window. You can’t go hoping on a bunch of bargains to hit. I expect the Cubs to be very much in on guys like Arrieta and Darvish. Exactly like you said bmags, this is their window and they should open up the checkbook.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 10:54 AM) We were unsure brinson was even coming back for Quintana now people want him for Fulmer? I don't think Brinson was ever on the table from the Brewers for Quintana. Fulmer hasn't proven anything yet, or at least enough to warrant any trade interest.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 09:43 AM) Heyman subtlety setting up a JBJ for Schwarber trade. Edit: nightengale not heyman Why would Boston do that? JBJ surely has more trade value than Schwarber after his replacement level 129 games in 2017? I get Cubs fans are obsessed with him, but outside of playoff heroics he just hasn't been very good.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 09:36 AM) Same. You are just trading Abreu to trade him at that point. Chavis is a guy I wanted for one of our bullpen pieces. I could easily see a guy like Chavis reverting back to his 2016 self and putting up a crappy season statistically given the fringy hit tool. If his defense were at least average it might be a different story, but as is I'd consider him a risky prospect. I think we would be open to dealing Abreu + Sanchez (possibly Avi) if players like Benintendi/Devers were made available. I highly doubt that happens, but if Dombrowski is serious about contending he will need to respond to the Yankees moves.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 09:25 AM) A little off topic but when you think about the deals, it still amazes me. I know I'm old but he is getting paid at least 6 million dollars AAV to perform for 60 times per year at most. Last year he pitched in 45 games. I know it's nothing compared to most but it is crazy if you think about the numbers. The cost of bullpen help has skyrocketed in recent years, and I don't think that is a trend that will stop. A good, not great closer can reasonably expect to earn at least $15 million per year now in free agency.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 12:38 AM) It would probably require at least one full healthy season AS A CLOSER before he regained most of his value from 2 years ago. That's a lot of strain to put on someone who has been through as many major injuries as Nate has recently. MONDAY, 7:09am: The deal is complete, pending a physical, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal will be for two years and $21MM. Morrow will earn $9MM in 2018 and 2019, with a $3MM buyout or a $12MM vesting option for the 2020 season.

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 04:50 AM) frazier has some contact issues but so does moncada and many other prospects. frazier still has a top30 prospect last year. I would not trade eloy or moncada for him of course but kopech and almost any other sox prospect I would probably do in a 1 for 1 trade since especially kopech and other pitchers are a really big risk too. using just ops to judge prospects also isn't a good way. Tyler White (astros dude) has produced a 900 OPS at every Level and he still rightfully never was a top100 prospect. results are important but top prospects have Tools and he has a lot of them and it isnt like he never hit at all. I absolutely would not trade Kopech for Frazier straight up. Although Kopech has proven nothing at the mlb level yet, neither has Frazier. Like other posters have stated, he is our best chance at developing a cost controlled TOR starter in our system. With the extreme cost of good starting pitching on the free agent market, Kopech should be close to untouchable unless we are dealing for a #1 starting pitcher. Frazier's hit tool is fringy, and it's hard to ignore his 39 game mlb cup of coffee in 2017 in which he was below replacement level. I'm not buying into the hype.

QUOTE (beautox @ Dec 10, 2017 -> 11:31 PM) Here is what I would like to see happen Avi & Smith are moved to the cards for RHP Jack Flaherty, OF Magneuris Sierra & LHP Austin Gomber. Avi gives them a nice bat in right field while not costing too much in terms of prospects and Smith allows them to keep Kelly who is only 23 down for more maturation and service time considerations. Flaherty is a solid mid rotation piece, Sierra has already acquired time at the show but has a ton of projection left and Gomber is solid looking lefty that is age appropriate and could likely find himself at the back end of a rotation or in the pen. Abreu & Yolmer are moved to the red sox for LHP Jay Groome, 3B Michael Chavis and RHP Bryan Mata. If the yankees are able to grab someone like Cole this will only force the issue even more; Boston needs power. I think the giants after missing out on Stanton put a lot of their resources at JD Martinez. Abreu gives them stability and power at 1B and Yolmer can hold down second while Pedroia recovers while adding additional value in case of injury around the diamond and late innings. Groome isn't going to help the red sox in their current window and Chavis is going to be blocked at 3B/1B/DH for the foreseeable future. Mata is very raw and projectable but is on a similar timeline as Groome. Salary relief to the Dodgers for Gonzalez & Kazmir (37.5M) for taking on their sunk costs and saving them 20% on their luxury tax overage the sox pick up OF Yusniel Diaz & C Keibert Ruiz; going by last years the point of Pittsburgh surplus values they are both worth roughly 41.2M. From a dodger perspective they're giving up their 5th and 6th best prospects but getting under the luxury tax and making room on the 25 and 40 man rosters while giving Bellinger full time at 1B and writing off Kazmir as a loss. Sox also get the potential to flip both of them at the deadlines, if not they're free agents at the end of the year along with Shields when our payroll will be roughly 23M. Draft RHP Cale Coshow from the yankees in the rule V. 2018 Opening Day DH - Gillaspie# C - Castillo 1B - Gonzalez* 2B - Moncada# SS - Anderson 3B - Saladino LF - Delmonico* CF - Sierra* RF - Garcia# SP - Giolito SP - Lopez SP - Fulmer SP - Shields SP - Kazmir* Abreu + Sanchez for that package seems very underwhelming. Groome is young, but has yet to have any professional success since he got drafted in 2016. I question Chavis' hit tool and defensive position big time. I just don't like the matchup for a trade in Boston's system, and tossing them Sanchez for essentially nothing does not make sense to me with him coming off a 3 WAR season.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 07:07 PM) No they won't. Stanton has dealt with injury issues in the past. The track record for sluggers performing after age 30 long term is not great either. If Stanton does Great he opts out in 2020 and gets even more money, or if he regresses you are stuck with him for the next decade. There’s plenty of risk in his contract.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 04:44 AM) Would just end up being another situation I think I think many Sox fans are expecting us to sign machado next offseason and I am having my doubts. The money and years might get to insane levels, along with opt outs and no trade clauses. We should be interested, but also should not be foolish enough to ink ANY player to a 12+ season deal.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 07:10 PM) Draft Guerrero, then Burdi, then one of the three pitchers in the BA article. Then offer Guerrero back to yourself and put him back in AA. That could be a possibility if the Sox wanted to keep him. He really needs to pitch in AAA this season instead of being tossed into the majors. I think the Sox have their eyes set on other players in the rule five draft though

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 07:25 AM) question with kelenic is whether he can play CF with an additional 20 pounds of muscle mass. trout can obviously but he also had speed in spades. when he hits like trout that obiously doesn't matter but trout really is a 99th percentile outcome. I think chance is that if kelenic is seen as a CF he is a top5 pick, if they think he is a corner OF with 20 pounds more he is a top15-20 pick. When drafting a high school outfielder that high, I would be very reluctant to select a player in the top five unless I really felt they could profile as a center fielder. Players need a hell of a bat to profile as an mlb corner regular, giving you far less margin for error.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 05:53 PM) Depending on people's views on Rutherford in the future, Fraizer is a good prospect who could be the LF for the next 6+ years. I don't think Yankees are gonna want James Shields as a starting pitcher though (or even Carson Fulmer). To me Clint Frazier is an overrated prospect due to the questionable hit tool. He has yet to show he can handle mlb pitching and any team would be foolish to trade quality young pitching for him.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 05:30 PM) Baseball will never be like the NBA because it’s far easier to acquire star caliber talent and the fact that salaries aren’t capped removes the incentive for established stars to create superteams. Right now, we just have a lot of teams echoing what the Astros & Cubs successfully did. At some point in the near future some of these rebuilding clubs will join the upper ranks and create more parity across league. Things will never be as bad as the NBA. Not every rebuild will go along the cubs and astros blueprint though. Right now the white sox, padres, braves, Phillies, soon royals , etc. are undergoing full blown rebuilds. Some will work, others will completely fail. The Stanton deal looks great for the Yankees right now, but I think they will end up regretting the trade several years down the line when he seriously regresses and still has 5-6 years left on his contract with a full no trade clause. I’m very nervous about the white sox pursuing a top free agent next offseason for huge money, opt outs and with complete no trade clauses that make the deal totally favor the player in terms of downside. How often do mega deals actually work out for a team before they really regret the signing?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 05:43 PM) Eric Thames did not destroy Japanese league pitching as he has never played in the Japanese league. That was Korea, my bad But my point is how well does japanese production translate to MLB?

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 05:02 PM) LOL, and also the idea that that is "pulling out all the stops". Maybe I'm crazy, and admittedly I have never seen him play, but are these japanese league stats THAT impressive to warrant such lofty scouting reports? I mean Eric Thames absolutely destroyed japanese league pitching, far more than Otani ever has. I'm not knocking pro japanese baseball, but the competition level is far below the MLB. His 3.3 BB/9 is merely average supposedly for japanese league pitchers as well. Pitching grades: Fastball: 80 | Slider: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Splitter: 65 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 70 Hitting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Run: 65 | Arm: 80 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60 I'm by no means calling him a bust, but I think there will be much more of a learning curve for him than is being projected.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 05:18 PM) Honestly, their fans are kind of over trying. They've been finishing 2nd in a lot of these things lately and people seem to be getting fed up. This one you obviously can't pin on them but ya. Sad truth for them is that no major stars really want to play in St. Louis

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 03:18 PM) He will wear down a lot sooner than other players with the double duty. I think he’ll be a pitcher only after 4-5 years once his hitting and pitching suffer from the excessive workload and longer season. A nice story but I think his career will be shorter than what you would normally expect. That’s a lot of wear and tear and injury risk being a 2 way player. I've never seen him play, so it's hard to fathom that he actually lives up to the enormous hype. Daisuke Matsuzaka came over with enormous hype and only produced 9.3 WAR (Baseball Reference) in 8 seasons. Splitting time batting and being a starting pitcher will be brutal in the long haul, as a 162 game season plus spring training, plus potential playoffs take a huge toll.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 03:09 PM) They sent out half a dozen players to gain international cap space, and completely struck out. They also missed out on a guy like Maitan who signed before they could bring him in potentially. Meanwhile the White Sox sold off 3 sets of cap space and gained three prospects for something they weren't going to use anyways. Interesting choice to pick the Angels, as their farm is one of the weakest in the mlb. Even with Richards back and Ohtani, the pitching staff is pretty suspect. They lost Petit, who pitched 91 solid innings for them in free agency as well. The Astros should have a stranglehold on that division for the next few seasons, even if the Angels went out and signed relief help and Darvish. Best case they would be looking at a wild card I'm thinking.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 02:54 PM) Angels should probably add another free agent SP. Go all out while they still have Trout. Where's their payroll expected to be at for 2018? Do they have room to add Darvish for $25-30 million per on a 6 year deal?

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 02:12 PM) Wow. That's like picking the White Sox over the Cubs. At least he didn't pick the Cubs

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 01:28 PM) Agreed, it seems much safer both with regards to AAV and overall safety to acquire hitters in free agency than it is to acquire pitching. Tyler Chatwood got $13 mill a year over 3 years. There may be some possible upside to that move, but the dude has been a league average pitcher at best. To actually get a top flight arm takes $20-25 mill a year or significant prospects. I think the price for a #2/3 starter in free agency will be $20-25 million per year, with #1 starters getting $30+ easily

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Dec 7, 2017 -> 05:55 PM) Wow, Dee Gordon and $1mil international bonus money for just Seattle's #2 who scouts are low on and two other prospects not on their top 30. Obviously the rankings are outdated and all three could be on, but that seems relatively cheap. Makes you wonder what they are asking for Yelich and Ozuna. Shame that Miami didn't have the pitching,. because the rest of their roster is actually filled with solid players: Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto, Bour, Stanton

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 09:13 AM) This is honestly why I'm scared about passing on Kelenic. It seems so similar and he has done nothing but crush the ball and play good defense but no one has him rated in like the top 5. He was already in the finals in several home run derbies and he looks like he could still add bulk. I've seen 65 grade run times out of him, but many predict he is going to slow down. He can steal a base, play CF, and still hit for a high average even with game power. The only real knock I've seen on him is that he is from Wisconsin and might not face the best competition. Kelenic will have scouts all over him this season since he is projected to be a top 15 draft pick. I think by the time of the draft we will have a much better sense of what sort of player he can be.