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Everything posted by steveno89
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When is rock bottom of the rebuild: 2017 or 2018?
steveno89 replied to Dominikk85's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (GermanSock @ Jul 21, 2017 -> 01:46 PM) At some point it should go up again but when is the bottom reached? Will 2018 be an even worse tank year? I could see it making sense to really load up on rule 5 picks next december and hope one becomes odubel herrera or quintana and sticks. I think realistically moncada contributes next year but none of the other prospects will be up yet so there isnt much to expect from that plus you play a whole year without quintana, frazier and a bullpen. Also another top3 pick in 2019 could make the sox system maybe the best ever. In 2019 then the guys slowly should arrive so that the sox slowly get better again with high 70 wins and then maybe make a cubs 2015 like splash in 2020. Do you agree with that timeline? What should the plan be for next offseason? I think they should maybe sign a couple cheap buy low veteran pitchers (starters and bp) that could bounce back and then be flipped for farm depth pieces next deadline. Also as I mentioned I think 2 or 3 rule 5 guys wouldn't be a bad idea. The next two months are going to be a rough ride as the White Sox will struggle in nearly every aspect of the game. Losses will pile up propelling us to a top 3 draft pick. In the offseason we will be active in the rule 5 draft, and possibly minor free agent signings similar to Holland to fill out our roster. We have dealt most of our major trade chips, but Sox will be open to more moves if the right deal comes across. 2018 will also be a struggle, although we should start to see some of the fruits of the farm emerge as players like Lopez, Moncada, etc. will get a to continue their development at the mlb level. Expect plenty of losses and an ugly season similar to 2017. Look for progress through our farm system as players in low A/high A ball ideally get promoted up the ladder and continue developing. Offseason after 2018 should be when we start to get very active with free agents. 2019 season should be a step forward, ideally back to around .500 baseball, possibly better if everything breaks right. -
QUOTE (iWin4Ron @ Jul 21, 2017 -> 11:50 AM) I see regarding McCutchen. Would AJ Pollock, Adam Jones, or Charlie Blackmon be better defensive options? Personally, I'd like the Sox to try to shore up CF/ C with strong defensive+offensive players in free agency and have a strong plan at SS/2b. Jones and Blackmon will be 33/34 years old by the time they hit free agency, so I'm not sure how long of a deal they will ask for. Anything more than 3 years would be a big mistake. I hate paying a premium for a player that is very likely to decline.
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2017 -> 10:05 AM) Here's the problem with spreading it around. We have something like 10 starting pitcher candidates, who by 2021 many of them barring injury are going to need stints in the big leagues to see if they're worth anything. We may still add a veteran "hold this together" guy to the rotation, but until some of them flop we have more than enough arms to not need to sign anyone. Now let's go to the lineup. We have guys in the top 100 who play: 2 outfield spots (Rutherford and Jiminez), 2b, Anderson, our most recent draft pick plays 3b as of now (moveable?), and a couple guys who catch. Not all of these guys are going to succeed. One or two may drop out by the time they get to AAA. But a lot of them are going to make the big leagues. Not all of them are going to succeed when they make the big leagues. Someone in there is likely to get 3 years of time in the big league roster and Gordon Beckham this thing. But how are we going to know which one if we don't give them the time to see? Counting positions and temporarily ignoring DH, we've got 1b (maybe filled if someone moves there), CF (maybe filled by someone for defensive purposes), and C (maybe Collins comes around?). In other words...almost all of our positions have someone who by 2019 or 2020 at the latest there will be a kid taking over. And that isn't counting guys who are here and having decent success now like Garcia, or any 2018 or 2019 first round picks who might come fairly polished if they're out of college. Those kids will not all succeed. You and I both know that. But if you sign someone to block a player, you're either saying you're moving a guy or that you're giving up and trading a guy. For most of these guys, the only way we will know whether or not they will be solid big league players is to bring them up to the big leagues when they are ready. There just aren't a lot of positions right now where we don't have an heir apparent. To me, that means that planning to "Spread the money around" on paper does not work with these Sox. If you're thinking it'd be great to sign a $15 million corner OF, $15 million infielder, and 2 $15 million starters, I'm going to ask where you're putting the guys they're blocking. On paper, I think the "huge splash" makes more sense. Find me a guy who slots into our #3 or #4 slots in the lineup and dominates at a single position, then put the 7 rookies who need playing time around him and see what happens. I get what you are saying, but free agent additions will have to be made. Not all of our prospects will nicely pan out at the mlb level like we want them to. I expect the team to be active in free agency after the 2018 season to make significant additions to what the front office feels is needed. Right now it's too soon in the process to evaluate, but 18 months from now we should have a better grasp of what our roster needs.
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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jul 21, 2017 -> 10:03 AM) Good call. Fisher and one of Martes/Paulino would make sense as headliners for Gray. Who knows, there are other teams interested in Gray so Luhnow may have to pony up or stick with carousel of starting pitchers rotating on and off the DL. Hmm, Gray would fit right in with that rotation. I would imagine that Fisher + Perez would be an attractive package of headliners for the A's. Gray's pricetag should be lower than Quintana's with a year less of control and more injury history.
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QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 07:30 PM) Buster thinks Astros could get Britton. Martes makes sense Astros absolutely should go all in, this seems to be their year in the AL. I'm not sure I would empty the farm for Gray though. I'd much rather land Quintana.
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 21, 2017 -> 09:22 AM) Machado will only by going into his age 27 year in 2019. I'm just not sure given the huge amount of money/bidding war that it makes the most sense for the Sox to sign any player to a mega deal. We could absolutely hate that contract if the player gets hurt or declines in performance. I'd rather spread the money around to several players who can help the team to win vs. one player who is a $40 million drain hole for the next decade. I'll reevaluate an opinion when we get closer to the mega free agency class.
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The holes of the system:shortstop and catcher
steveno89 replied to Dominikk85's topic in FutureSox Board
QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 04:54 PM) SS will be solved when we have the first pick of 2018 :^) Brice Turang would be a really good pick. I've seen multiple articles saying there are 7 or 8 guys who would be the best player in the 2017 draft that are in the 2018 draft. It's a good year for us to be tanking. -
FS: Details on the NYY prospects acquired last night
steveno89 replied to NorthSideSox72's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 03:45 PM) He's reporting to BIrmingham Polo will sadly be our best hitter in AA. We have a very weak positional lineup in AA right now. -
QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 02:24 PM) Eloy is a better prospect than Tucker, so it all worked out in the end. Is he? I'm not 100% sure I would have been very interested in a Tucker + Whitley ++ package from Houston
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 04:27 PM) That's one of the two ways to look at it. I'm perfectly happy with the deal and have no issues with it whatsoever. Frankly, the Sox are looking at 4 elite talents offensively now. It's a huge if, because prospects bust, but if those 4 guys do all pan out and hit their 90% projections, you are talking about an offense that's probably top 5 in the AL already. If a few of the other guys become OK regulars - guys on the team now, guys in the minors, guys they haven't acquired - you have a top 2 offense in the AL. My only concern is that Cashman is a smart GM, and really never trades the "wrong guy" so to speak. Not saying Rutherford won't pan out, but it does give me some pause.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 04:13 PM) See, I think you can make arguments for either side. The White Sox were looking at a guy in Frazier who was probably going to be worth a C- prospect, and Robertson maybe a C+/B- prospect if the Sox pick up half of his salary, and combining those two might get you both of the other prospects that you'd get. I don't think you're getting Rutherford for those two combined. Meanwhile, the Sox traded Tommy Kahnle who has literally been good for half a season. Given, he has been very, very good, like among the best relievers in the game, but it's half a season regardless, and they hardly gave up anything to get him, so if his inclusion gets you an A prospect plus a B- prospect and a C prospect, then I think it's worth it. On the other hand, Robertson and Kahnle are both still very good relievers and Frazier was still putting up positive value despite barely cracking the Mendoza line. The Sox got a very talented prospect in Rutherford but he's still in low-A plus a couple of other flyer sort of prospects, so yeah, you can say the Yankees won that deal. Frankly, the Sox got a guy they coveted so it's hard for me to say they lost that deal in the short-term, but I get how you can say they didn't win the deal or they perhaps didn't maximize value. Jason Martinez of MLB trade rumors had this to say about the trade... "Rutherford is a top 25-40 prospect in baseball. They got him for a reliever with a few very good months, a rental in Frazier and shed Robertson's entire salary. I love this deal for the Sox"
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Anthony Swarzak to Brewers; Sox receive Ryan Cordell
steveno89 replied to username's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 11:37 AM) Would you take a guy in that range for Swarzak? I know I would love that return. I'm hoping we can land a B- level prospect for swarzak. Someone with upside for sure. -
QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 10:25 AM) Except all those guys were on the wrong side of 30 and didn't have much athletic ability. Harper is one of the most athletically gifted players in the game. Sox I'm sure will be interested, but I think the $ gets to an insane level for Harper/Machado. They might be better served to spread the money around to get several pieces.
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 10:18 AM) Yeah, my guess is we wanted Torres and Rutherford, and they pushed Mateo. Who knows, maybe because of Timmy we were asking for a guy like Frazier. It is really hard to know what the Yankees situation would be because of TA. Yankees would have had to part with Torres ++ in order to land Quintana, which they obviously were not willing to do Atlanta put Albies on the table, Cubs put Jimenez on the table, Yankees put Rutherford...hard to really top the Cubs package though
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QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 09:31 AM) It just feels like every contending teams outfield is awesome though. Melky could be a really good bat off the bench? You could do much worse than him for a three month rental
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QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 09:23 AM) If I am a contending team I'd want someone like Melky for sure. He's a pro, is consistent, has a good arm, and can be had for cheap. Sadly it won't be good for us. Melky has been raking lately as well. He might have a few teams interested, especially if an injury happens in the next week.
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QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 09:19 AM) I am excited about Polo. It's an excellent name. I am digging Polo as well. If I had to bet which one out of Rutherford/Clarkin/Polo would at least play in the majors it would be Polo. He seems very underrated and could become a quality bench bat/pinch runner who can handle time at each OF position. He does not walk a ton, but has shown he can make solid contact with a little pop. I think he ends up being better than Basabe
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QUOTE (oldsox @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 08:54 AM) Padres and Giants open a crucial four game series tonight. I would not be surprised if we are very much in contention for the #1 overall pick, especially if we are able to move Melky/Swarzak/Avi/Abreu. We are at 38 wins, and I have my doubts that we will get to 60.
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 08:50 AM) I understand. That doesn't mean the deal will be a big win if Clarkin turns into a 5th starter and Rutherford busts. Clarkin is not a bad pitching prospect by any means. His issue has been staying healthy. Obviously Rutherford is the price here, but the Sox have extensively scouted the Yankees system and are obviously high on Rutherford/Clarkin/Polo. Polo is an underrated player in my opinion. Small sample size, but he has been raking in 14 games since being called up to AA, putting up an OPS of 1.006. He has plus speed as well and solid contact skills. Likely will not be a starter, but I could see him playing the role of quality fourth outfielder. Rutherford only recently turned 20 years old, so time is on his side development wise. Scouts like the approach, bat speed, swing and makeup for sure. Look at it this way, would you rather have traded Robertson + $12 million for Luzardo and Ward...only to be stuck trying to package Kahnle/Frazier for something? I'm content with the return as of right now.
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QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 08:36 AM) Rizzo has been calling on D-Rob for months and Hahn insisted on Robles on the return, hence why it didn't happen, Rizzo didn't budge and settled for Madson/Doolittle Idk if we insisted Robles, but we certainly wanted one of Robles/Soto/Fedde/Kieboom in return.
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 08:19 AM) I don't think this is a fair way to approach these deals. If Rutherford busts, but Clarkin turns into a 5th starter, this is a big win? This deal was not made in a vacuum, Hahn knew what other offers for Robertson/Kahnle/Frazier were on the table. He stated this was the best overall offer and package they had received. We always want more, but sometimes a compromise is best. Rutherford + Clarkin + Polo + $20 million in salary relief is what this boils down to
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QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 07:12 AM) If Sox eat as much of Robertsons deal as we did on Nats proposed deal, I think we are happier with return. I'm sure we offered to eat salary, but likely it wouldn't have helped the return in this instance that much. If Rutherford and/or Clarkin pan out this deal is a big win
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QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 04:59 PM) This article compares Rutherford's stock to Giolito this past offseason http://nypost.com/2017/07/19/sonny-gray-ma...kees-next-step/ Rutherford is only 20 years old and has plenty of time to develop into the player we hope he can be. Not sure how execs could sour on such a young player already? He'll be just fine.
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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 02:25 PM) One of the guys on the Score when he heard the list of Sox players thought it was going to be Gleyber Torres. One wonders how close that was to reality, and what addition the White Sox would have had to make...? Even if the Sox ate money I doubt the Yankees would be motivated to deal Torres when his value is down. Sox I'm sure would have been all over him if he was available.