he gone.

Great game out of Andrus. sometimes hot streaks trump matchup history. glad to see it, was huge in getting that win.

forgot, matt chapman game 2 as well. total bases

Andrus, while hot, has awful numbers against Marco. I'd put Romy at SS and Harrison at 2b. Elvis batting .158 over 38AB's. Have a feeling this game will be pretty low scoring. 3-2 type final. They're going to have to rely on Marco a bit today as they used their bullpen for 1ip at a time yesterday night. Both teams had to travel late to west coast for this game. I'd guess that Mariners didn't get to their actual homes until like 3-4am. Let's hope we win this first one to keep momentum. We've got Gilbert and Luis Castillo ahead ... we can definitely split those, but makes this first game very important. You lose tonight and split the next two and you're losers of 3 of 4 after your nice momentum. Game 1 here is likely the most winnable and we need to show urgency here and play our best game of the series.

9/5 bets: Like: adley rutschman game 2 against berrios TB over 1.5 arenado, dickerson, pujols over 1.5 bases. anibal sanchez settling down of late. only 6 hits let up over L3 starts. these guys have great stats against him historically, but earlier this season didn't deliver. out of these i like them in the order presented from most to least. pujols just has old legs .. hard to get 2 bases for him. Love: just like yesterday i take the guys who show up on the L7 through L30 for hot bats. Hitting doubles, making contact, getting on base etc. Check that against the league leaders in doubles, and then go through H2H historical matchups... if there are names on all 3 lists then they get to this list. Todays guys are: Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman and then a fudge factor on Justin Turner, Xander and Betts. The latter do not have a long history H2H, under 10abs ... again, if you parlay 3 of them and it hits? It pays out like 80-100X. With one hitting yesterday the odds are it shouldn't hit for another 2.5 months .... so don't go crazy on it. I like throwing them in round robins as i feel the combo is somewhere within those 6 guys. Or do them as singles ... if you hit 2 of 6 you should still be up on the day. On the fence: adrian houser over 2.5k's. colorado really struggling on offense of late, but coming back to coors is always a risk. just think he has enough to get 3k's. same on taillon. hitting the over at 3.5k's under in sox/seattle. both teams traveling late to seattle. historically seattle not great against lynn, nor are we against marco gonzalez. in particular andrus and abreu have a tough go. add in that ballpark ... dead ball ... feels like a 3-2 type final.

By the way ... this hit. dumb luck for it to be on my first post on this thread. but it paid 80X. $20 bet = $1,600. You'd be playing in the green for a LONG time with that bet. As a recap: mcneil, edman, goldschmidt, dickerson, mookie, xander, ty france all hit 1.5 abreu and lowe each had a hit alonso, lindor, vaughn went hitless Day one in the books at +82 units

been doing very well all year on prop bets. the key is taking in a lot of information and then filtering it down to the best. for example my daily routine is: MLB.com - review all head to head matchups. take all the matchups that are strong head to head and put to side. filter those results out to those with larger sample size (15abs) and above. ballparkpal.com - check ballpark conditions. check for wind conditions, rain, temp and how it affects how the ballpark plays cbssports.com - check game logs for pitchers, L4 starts. look for any trends. filter out who is a flyball guy, sinker baller, etc. (aka Stroman/Mikolas today - both will allow balls in play by their nature). pitcherlist.com - check what these guys have to say in terms of starts. some guys CSW data, etc. isn't great so good to have that perspective. Find a pitcher that isn't pitching well of late and underlying data isn't great - go to baseballsavant.com and check out his pitching profile. what does he throw ... if he's throwing sliders or sinkers or whatever the pitch at a high clip and its xwOBA xera type numbers are bad? then go to the corresponding team and run their L7 stats, find a hot bat, and run his baseball savant page to see if any of those hot guys are hitting those sliders/sinkers/etc well. Run L7 and L14 stats on bats across the MLB. Who has the most total bases over the last 7 and last 14? Run the doubles leaders for MLB on a full season and L30 basis. If there are names that are inside of that venn diagram (great H2H matchups with a larger sample size, L14 days Total bases, L30 doubles leader) then I'll bet them. Today that list is Edman, Boagerts, and Betts. Betts only has a sample size of 10ab's against Clevinger, so breaking one of my own rules, that said he has maybe the hottest bat in baseball over the last two weeks. For the sake of this board ... if these guys make my list they've been through the ringer. The doubles parlay is the ticket. Hit one bet at 100X? You are in the green for quite some time. If this equation hits even 5x all year? Your return is 500X - 150X losses... +350X $20 bet = $2000 and hit 5X = 10,000 Lose $20 * 150 games = $3000 = $7,000 profit on a $20 unit bet or +350X (Boagerts is 1 for 1 with a double so far today btw)

I do a lot of gambling and a lot of gambling research. figure I'd share it if people want to tail. this is good info for both daily leagues and prop bets too. Guys I like today (9/4) Lindor, Alonso, mcneil - all do very well in H2H pitching matchups. Of those I like McNeil the most. Alonso total bases over 1.5 Tommy Edman total bases over 1.5 and Corey Dickerson. Goldschmidt should have a nice day at the plate too. Nico hoerner going off at +160 on Total bases. Hits almost .500 against Mikolas LOVE LOVE LOVE Mookie, Xander and Edman to hit over 1.5 or to have doubles today too. You can find doubles bets on many sportsbooks and they pay +300 - +450. There's a combo in here ... I've done a doubles parlay and if you pair 3 guys together and it hits its usually paying about 100X. $25 bet wins $2500 or so. Find a book with those three and a doubles bet and either RR it or parlay it and it'll pay very handsome. Very much like the overs in STL and MIA games. Atlanta has a good history against Pablo and Miami surprisingly has hit Fried alright. Stroman and Mikolas have been poor against their respective opponents. On the Sox front loving Abreu and Vaughn. Abreu does very well against Bundy in career and has hits in 8/10 + over 1.5 Total bases in 4/5. Pays about even. Same with Vaughn. Hits in 8/10. Last but not least for Total bases Ty France and Nate Lowe.

Is Daniel Palka for real? Is Matt Davidson for real? No, the answer is no. 1 month of hitting well isn't real. It's one month of hitting well.

Heard it was sore legs.

Absolutely not. This team is in no way better without Abreu.

You'd be surprised. I think you definitely can find a partner. You have a guy who has consistently produced 3 to 4 WAR a year at a position of weakness, even amongst the top contenders. He's on a one year deal, the shift is ending and this poor production is due to his legs. i dont think anybody would deny that ... now are his legs done, done? or is this a poor health year? team doctors should be able to tell an interested team that. i know it's hard to zoom out but guys like grandal and yoan have a track record and although those two are the LVP of this year, they also are the key to next year. you can't just trade them for scrap. your best chance at success next year rides on those two guys. so you need to find a coaching staff and training staff that can fix that issue. i've been wrong before, but i just ton't see grandal being this bad next year.

You have to take this whole year with a grain of salt. Pollock has a career of results under his belt. So do guys like Kelly and Grandal, etc. Don't let injuries and a corpse as a manager (plus Tony Gwynn as hitting coach) lose sight of that. It's just not plausible or smart to tear this whole team down when the majority of the payroll is tied up and the trade values are at their lowest. You're pot committed. Trading Moncada for nothing and putting Burger in his place just kills your D in the infield. That's not the solution. Same with trading Joe Kelly or Grandal, Pollock, etc. They're all here for just one more year (mostly). You have to roll with that. Trading Grandal to some team for a AA guy with " a good arm but control problems" and dumping that salary to then go sign Omar Navarez and Adam Frazier doesn't make this team better, it just doesn't. Realistically the best thing to do is roll the entire team back with different managers/coaches at the helm and build back trade value and payroll flexibility going into 2024. If we're the same lifeless fish flopping around in June/July of next year then you dump Kelly, Graveman, Hendriks, Grandal, Pollock, etc. to the highest bidder and make creative trades to reshuffle the whole core move-forward. But you just can't do it yet. The team has too much talent on paper and are too pot committed to tear it down now. You're going to see the same roster and a lot of "Hahn speak" this offseason. The best we can hope for is a new manager and a competent RF.

tony wont be back. season ticket renewals and/or playoff deposits will be the wakeup call they need. i expect two things to get back in my good graces before next year if they want to sniff my $$ ... a) can the entire staff, and admit the failure openly. take responsibility. b) trade or sign for a competent left handed right fielder. c) won't happen. make a big shakeup. for real someone like Ohtani. Or Trea Turner. Again, i know the last point aint happening, but this team with a new manager and one actual competent all star caliber player in RF or 2B is back to the top for WS contenders next year.

I went with Grandal. It's not just the BA, its the lack of power and the fact he doesn't hit anyhting other than singles, is slow, double plays, etc. injured. Just brutal. Pollock is my second choice. With all the injuries to Eloy and Robert, etc. the fact he didn't step up stung. He had a chance to really make those losses less. (engel too). third was leury. can't fault him. he's just bad. that's a TLR problem more than anyhting.

Disclaimer* None of the below matters without a change at manager. Assuming they do so, here are my thoughts: I DO NOT think this team needs a total tear down. Hell, we're 6/7? games back of the division and the markets are still giving us better odds to win the WS than Cleveland. The markets talk the truth and this team has talent. I won't go into the boring stuff, but the whole staff needs to be sacrificed. Katz can stay, but the rest need to go. We need a nutritionist, strength and conditioning staff, etc. and we need to hire full analytics team. Read up on Voth going from the Nationals to the Orioles. Baseball is like golf and all individuals on this team are different. Some may need 2/3 pitching coaches in their ear, others may need none and just Cueto giving them advice. All are different, and as such, think it'd be smart to have 2 pitching coaches and 2 hitting coaches. You're limited to 6 uniformed coaches per game, but doesn't mean you can't have more. Now onto the roster. It may feel like we're on a desert island, but it's really not that bad. Simple moves ... resign Abreu and Cueto. Cueto xFip and xERA are not great. He may even be likely to throw 4.25ERA ball next year and beyond, but that said ... rubber arms are worth something. And if he's going to be able to give you 175IP you take that in the 5 slot and don't look back. Now I don't think we exactly created a great atmosphere for him where he's going to accept less than market value, but if you can get him in the range of 2yr, $18mm you take it. (for those of you who think that's high - think joe kelly, think leury, think VV, etc.) One less spot to worry about. Secondly you sign Abreu. You don't let your best hitter and leader walk. you just dont. i don't care his age compared to vaughn and the fit go-forward, etc. You resign your franchise guy who has said he'll take a discount. I'd be giving him $15-20mm a year, some kind of player/club option deal where it's basically a year to year deal but that he's getting paid for his services fairly. The hot topic guys: Grandal ... i get it, this board hates him. catchers fall off cliffs. he looks like hes running in sand. his knees are shot. i get it all. that said catcher is not an easy position to just go out and fill. look at the mets, yankees, houston, etc. those are the top teams in baseball and they've had trouble for years and years. grandal is under contract, let's get him an offseason of rest and lets call a spade a spade. he's an overcompensated 90-110 game catcher. that's it. he's not your DH now on off days. he's not your power guy. He's a 7/8th in the lineup guy. good news is the shift is going away and he gets shifted on a ton. get him to 22 doctors and figure those knees and a routine and let's just get slightly above average WAR out of him. Moncada ... ahhh, third base and the white sox ... always. i've always struggled to like the guy. but his D is solid and he has a good eye, maybe too good of an eye. robot umps would help him. he needs to expand his zone a bit (which is the opposite of most this team). But you just take what you have. it's not a hole. he falls into that 7/8th in the lineup. he's also in the boat for nutritionist and yoga guy. go see ceases yoga guy. not sure if his diet changed from twinkies yet, but seriously, he needs to fix that shit and who knows. im fine w him like grandal. Vaughn/Eloy - I'm a sucker, but i think you can't trade eloy at his lowest trade value. even coming back strong lately, hes been so injured ... you have to keep him for one more year. then you can see what his trade value is go-forward. he's a DH, so is vaughn (at least with Abreu). it's not great, and it's one of the things holding this team back. previously ive said you need an eloy for podsednik type trade ala carlos lee... i wouldn't be mad at that, but i think it's worth one more year. You just slot Eloy at LF and Vaughn at DH and don't look back. rotate around with Vaughn at 1B for when Abreu need DH days. Done. Again to create a hole just becuase this year was brutal. Robert - obviously nothing. Anderson - obviously nothing. Rotation - leave it. I doubt it'd happen, but maybe even try and sign Gio to a 4yr/60mm type deal. i know, i know ... but think of us saying that last offseason ... i doubt he takes it. he believes in himself, but i'd try it. Cease/Kopech/Lynn/Cueto/Giolito with Crochet and Davis Martin, etc should be able to be an okay rotation. Bullpen. leave it. we dont need to spend money there. the guys are fine. let it be. kelly will be better (by default) and we don't need focus there. This roster sounds the same so far huh? I sound crazy huh? The deal to be made is so simple. 1 - Sign Conforto. Lefty, OBP, Right Fielder. Check, check, check. Guessing he's in for a pillow deal of like 1/$20mm ... even better. It fits our window and allows us clarity. (1a) you can convince me Joey Gallo, but i just see Adam Dunn and i Just see it not being a great fit on this roster ... 2 - I think we already have to do it, but resign Pollock. He's going to need to play 75-100 games with our OF and injuries. I'd add Tyler Naquin as well. Same idea. You need someone who can start. No more Engel, No more Sheets, No more Leury ... just none of it in my outfield. 3 - Goodbye Sheets, Burger, Engel, Harrison. They're not good. You're not going to get much for them. maybe can get a bullpen arm out of one? 4 - 2B - as much as i'd love to go after a guy like Trea Turner, it's just not happening with JR. So just give me any of our meh minor league guys. OF - Eloy/Robert/Conforto/Pollock/Naquin IF - Moncada/Anderson/Romy/Abreu/Vaughn/Leury (shoot me) C - Grandal/Seby/AAAA guy So you're thinking to you self ... that's the same team. Yes, yes it is. Because this isn't the time to tear down the team. We built this thing over 5-6 years and we have one more year of really going for it before decisions need to be made. The problem is TLR and staff and we all know it. We need a hitting coach that focuses on real data and not singles and a manager that is alive. We also need a RF w a lefty bat on a short contract (ideally) ... and that's available too. If you structure deals for Abreu, Conforto and Cueto at 1 year with some sort of options ... then after 2023 you have: Yaz - $18.25mm off the books Abreu - $18mm (lets just pretend it's a 1yr 18mm and option stuff) off the books Pollock - $10mm off the books Kelly $9.5mm off the books Conforto $20mm off the books Leury - only $5mm, 1yr to cut. Total: $80mm 2024: Lynn - $18mm off the books Hendriks - $15mm off the books Anderson $14mm off the books Graveman $8mm off the books Total: $55mm None of these guys have trade value to return young talent to turnover into anyways, so you have to roll with them. we are stuck for next year based on this plan. The flexibility opens up afterwards. sometimes the best solution is the one right in front of you. and in this case, it was the solution we were all looking for this past offseason ... sign conforto and fire this staff.

agree. i'm not seeing a dime on this on the loans i inherited via marriage ... hold zero ill will. I am happy for everybody who is getting relief. In all likelihood I'll be paying into my 50's out of my paychecks. them the breaks...

Yep, my guess was what is likely to be confirmed - $250k all in for filing jointly. Also agree with above ... fine and well for some, but in general this $10k is more or less Biden following through (right before midterms, shocking!) but to a lesser degree than a campaign promise. Trying to play both sides where he can get the most votes without pissing off too many people. As mentioned ... it doesn't fix the underlying issue (still going to be a problem in the future) nor does it alleviate the loans. Best case scenario for scum that run based on egos and votes. keep you on the hook so you can continue to make empty promises!

Plz answer if you have season tickets. And also please be honest. Like i know it's en vogue to say you're cancelling, but let's say they go out and somehow trade for Ohtani or fire Tony, or actually make a big splash in FA ... are you still confident in your answer? I know for me my answer is a definitive NO. I've been sharing/bouncing around 6-15 games for a few years now but I can't even get face value for the games. Even besides the fact they stink, are no fun to watch and bring me no joy i also look as an investment and i can't find ppl to go to the games with and can't get my money back. would rather just pick a few games based on weather, series, pitching matchups, etc. rather than be locked into a set of games. I'm just curious to see what the take is on the board. I know some people are invested for 5, 10, 20 years on tickets and just wondering is this the breaking point? I'm not naive to think we all go back on our words ... but I've given this franchise a good 25 years now and save a few years ... not many have been all that fun/enjoyable.

wait until you see andrus then ... haha https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/elvis-andrus-462101 What we should be hoping for is lightning in a bottle for a 2-3 week period. That said lightning is just as likely to come out of Sosa, Romy or Elvis. Per those stats it looks like hes trying to lift the ball based on the launch angle being so out of line w his career. it's a the expense of everything else. He's not good ... at all ... all you can do is hope he has a few good weeks

hahaha. i'd like to be an insder. naw, i just follow a bunch of beat writers of all teams on twitter. elvis had made noise for about a week and they just cut piscotty (l believe it was him) a week ago. Andrus was rumored to be next. Right place right time, got lucky it being an hour before it happened.

villar could be worth exploring. can you do minor league swaps still in august? i thought you could ... he caught on with the mariners after angels cut him.

forgot about that ... i kind of like that one a lot.

mlb is tough, let alone for a rookie. why the colas hype, while fun, isn't very cut and dry either. sure there are some guys who come out of the gate hot (michael harris, vaughn on braves) from AA, but mostly it's tough. I think the Sox have to just ride with whatever they choose ... one guy needs the 5 games a week.

they're getting closer to dragging me back into this mess 3hrs a night ... mentally i dont know if i can take it. 5 games upcoming against the astros and cleveland? If they go 3-2, taking 2/3 from Guardians ... I'll reluctantly begin caring again. We'd be a half game back. (assuming indians clean up against daniel norris today)

Elvis Andrus can be had for free ... that's not your answer though. It could be an answer for 3-4 weeks though? He's going to be released any day now.