he gone.

Also, just to add to the above, you know what I'd like to see? Drop Anderson to like 5th in the order. I want him to focus on his approach of driving the ball more. He's had a lack of power for several months now ... I'd like to put him in a position where he's got to take a different mental approach.

Dunning: I think we all know a bit about him. For some reason though since he's got down to TX he's lost his signature control. Each of his seasons with the Sox (including minors) he had a whip under 1.19. It's been 1.43 each of the two years in TX. Does it matter? We struck out 12 times yesterday and took ONE walk. Incredible. I still dont get how Mennechino has a job. Baseball is like golf - you roll through swing coaches nonstop because a slight change can have massively different results. but i digress .... back to dunning. Dunning has walked 3+ in 6 of his last 8 games. He's also allowed 10, 7, 10, 8, 9, 8, 8 baserunners in those same games. Which is to say if we have an approach (we wont) we should have good traffic on the bases. Fundamentals (yikes) are going to play a role here ... good baserunning, smart decisions, etc. Unfortunately the things Dunning is good at we're bad at, and things we're bad at, he's bad at. For instance his chase rate is in the 78th percentile. He's going to throw sinker 40% of the time (HELLO ELOY!) and slider low and away 28% of hte time which leads to all those chases ... (OH NO MONCADA). Other than that he basically throws changeup low and inside. Easier said than done, but don't chase that slider and we're in great shape. his xBA on the slider is .217. His sinker just hasn't been very good in each of the last two years. Expect to see Sheets today in RF. Lefties hit .294 against Dunning and overall Dunning has a much worse WHIP against lefties w/ a 43:29 K/BB and a 1.70whip. Against righties he has a 1.17WHIP and 50/14 K:BB. We have to get to him early. Dunning has a respectable 4.70ERA in the first time around but hones in the second time around with a 2.85ERA. His day/night splits don't benefit us with a 3.90ERA at night (5+ during day) and his home away splits also are tough with a 3.42ERA at home v. a 5.12ERA on the road. On paper? This will be a frustrating game ... much like this whole season I guess. Sox Tidbits: Eloy mashes sinkers (point in case yesterday) as does Abreu. Those two will continue to be the key for the offense and will need to remain hot. Moncada does fine and will need to be in there regardless with the switch bat. Yaz on the other hand can't hit a sinker to save his life (nor any other pitch right now) but fear he'll be in there with L bat as well. You'll see Sheets in there no doubt. Pollock does very well against sinkers too and should be in there in CF over Engel. Don't kill the messenger you're going to see Leury Legend today too. He actually hits sinkers alright (.333BA this year !!) I think Robert was already sitting today? My lineup: SS: Anderson (I'd honestly consider dropping him if someone else wanted to step up ... just for a few games to shock him) CF: Pollock DH: Eloy 1B: Abreu RF: Sheets LF: Vaughn 3B: Yoan (woof) C - Yaz (woof) 2B: Leury Going to guess something like Rangers 4, Sox 2. Hope I'm wrong. Pick to Click: Eloy and wait for it ... Leury

By the way, for those who gamble, really like the total base prop this evening on Eloy and Abreu. Each are paying +110 for over 1.5 bases. Abreu's patience scares me a bit in terms that he may walk 1-2 times and then it puts a lot of pressure on the other at bats for him to hit 2 singles or a double/homer. But someone like Eloy and his hot streak seem to be perfect for tonight against Otto. in fact, he's hitting .476 against sinkers this year. not a huge sample size, but this is a great matchup for him, He has hit the over on 1.5 bases 6 of last 7 games. Should be protected by Abreu/Robert tonight in lineup as well. If Robert can get a single ahead of him I think it'll force Otto to throw over the plate more and Eloy is locked in lately ...

Surprising for sure. Looking back on recession data generally jobs lag by 5-9 months. History doesn't always repeat, but it rhymes. This is obviously a weird time. Still feels uncertain to me with a ton of variables that can take this in any direction. Too unstable to make any long term decisions. Cash seems like the play still. If i had to take a guess is the market continues its bounce from the bottom over next 30-60 days. I do think post harvest and into to the new year will be rough and probably retest the previous lows with a wick down for a bit in Q1 2023.

Otto Notes: Features sinker 26% of the time, Slider 24, Fastball 23%, Curveball 14%, and Changeup 13%. By far and away his sinker is his best pitch with xBA of .199. Outside of that? his curve and slider can work from time to time, but not nearly as scary. He likes to work the sinker in on righties, usually up and in. His fastball is wild, but leaves a good amount center. We need to sit on a fastball and be patient. Not that this Sox team knows how to do that. Overall righties have a .315BA this year and a 1.8 WHIP. Patience is a virtue today. The type of game Moncada, Yaz, Abreu, Vaughn should excel in. Anderson, Robert, Eloy need to relax today. Otto will walk guys. He's alked 38 in 72ip. The thing Otto does surprisingly well is control his pitches MUCH better with guys on. Seems to go shift to putting the ball over the plate more. With runners on base he has 30k's against 7bb for a 1.237 whip. With bases empty he seems to nibble a bunch more a 1.73whip. Much like many pitchers his ERA in the first go-round is much lower. 3.70ERA, second go-round its 5.96, and although he hasn't got late in the games very often he's gets knocked around after. Generally normal there. Home splits are 7.50ERA v. 4.00era on the road ... a bit surprising. Final tidbits, xERA is 5.63, pretty awful. Game plan should be to sit fastball, be patient on that sinker inside. If he can't locate that, then we should be in a good position to take his other offerings Cease? We know the story. He's good. Lineup: In no god damn way should Sheets sniff this lineup as a lefty. We have a ton of righties and that's a good thing in this matchup. Sheets can come in for a pinch hit later, but in no way do i want to see his face. Take the defense in Engel in RF. I'm looking for Anderson, Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, Robert, Vaughn, Yaz, Engel, Harrison; I like moving Moncada up for a guy with control issues as long as Yoan knows the game plan is to be patient. Otherwise stick him near the bottom. Although I like Seby, I also think you have to go with Yaz for same reasons as Moncada. I like getting Engel a game here with Cease on the mound and to give him an OF that can field. All goes well and this should be a 6-2 type final hopefully. Go go sox.

you don't send robert on a plane to get one game in, then get sick and stay in Charlotte and then fly him back to Chicago and say, hey, a 1 game rehab is enough. He didn't even need a rehab, so it seems a bit pointless. more to the story is the likely answer. and probably not good news. And if it is good news, than the sox remain undefeated in idiocy... a one game rehab?

we were always going to need more than 1 to win, so to me, i'm not worried about the runs until the rox score a 5th run.

Gio and his 2022 pitching profile do not play well for this game in coors. hopefully i'm wrong. would like to see him use his changeup a bit more today. its usage is down this year against the past few and his expected stats on it are his best. senzatela on the other hand has kind of mastered coors field. not like he's great overall, but his era at home is closer to 4 and on the road closer to 7. like someone said, we'll need runs today. have a feeling 7+ will be needed for a chance today.

This is how i view some of the guys on the team ... Eloy = Carlos Lee Giolito = better version of Gavin Floyd Moncada = Crede (not profile wise, but in terms of never meeting potential)

nah, i believe this. This team ain't it. it's broken and station to station, doesn't take walks, doesn't work counts, doesn't play defense, doesn't run out balls in play, don't hit the cut-off men, do not run bases well, do not read signs well, has a manager without a pulse in his body, in the media, or team and we are maxed out in terms of payroll. i actually fully think this is JUST the time the Sox would go all-in and mortgage whatever few pieces of a minor league system they have left all to lose to a much better Yankees and Astros team. (blue jays too) in the ALDS in 4 games. Feed this into my veins!

to be fair here, if tony sits him the board would yell "soft!" and these guys need to play through! and then he plays and they say how he needs to sit. winning cures all

yep, only way I can see Joe Kelly going anywhere is taking another "meh" contract. That's why I put Castellanos in that scenario. That said, Nick doesn't really make the Sox better. You get another subpar fielder, that costs more than Eloy. 4 years, 80mm for Castellanos for 4 years, $58mm for Eloy 1.5 years, $13mm'ish for Kelly Phillies need bullpen help. This would give us a better defensive RF (sadly) because that's how bad we are in RF. Only real issue is the fit for Phillies for Eloy. They're hiding Schwarber in LF currently. Eloy would have to be DH. They are similar to us that they have way too many station guys.

The funny thing is he's like what ... 35 years old? His references are of that of a 50 year old.

i'd normally say the above is using revisionist history ... but I don't think any of us think that. I'd have to dig through if i commented on Leury contract, but I remember thinking that's a lot of guaranteed years for Leury. Money to me is actually fine. He had proven himself enough over a decade to demand $5mm, just not for 3 years. I think i was generally net positive on Kimbrel trade and picking up his option. In a world of infinite money i can't fault hahn there. his terrible half year really killed his value but thought pollock was fair and we turned out okay there (even if pollock sucks right now) Joe Kelly? I never liked. That was in response of them knowing they had to trade Kimbrel and that also took away some leverage for the Kimbrel trade. Relievers are failed starters ... they have flaws. to give a substantial percentage of your payroll away to a bullpen is a risky decision. you better be sure it works. if it does, you're the yankees of a half decade ago ... however i still don't see any rings on those yankees fingers in the past decade and they have more room for error with higher payroll harrison was a definite hated decision by me. i still think its dumb. i dont care hes playing better. he was cut two years ago by a last place team. dead weight. he had one good half season ... which we've seen many people do ... and then sucked post trade deadline. he's a zero WAR guy. at least it was just a year, so can't hate too much. but bad signing. The truth is with Rodon on this team we're probably in 1st place and even with all the shitty offense and terrible injuries etc we probably have a top 3 (and legit) shot at the world series. without him? we don't. less than 5% chance. The cost to acquire a guy like rodon via trade? detrimental to the farm which is also nonexistent. it was a poor FO job during covid and last year, especially covid when contracts were going cheap. our window was opening, the players were cheap, and we had our thumbs up our asses.

in theory, i don't mind the idea in a vacuum ... however his underlying stats are pretty bad and of late has had some trouble with fly balls/exit velocity. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/madison-bumgarner-518516?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb I dont think AZ would really be in the driver seat to get ANYTHING in return. I think it would be MadBum, Peralta, and cash for nothing. He's taking home $45-50mm over the next 2.5 years to be Johnny Cueto. The market value for Cueto is probably like $7mm AAV right now. So you're paying $27mm over ask. I'd need every bit of $25mm + Peralta to consider that deal.

Going to give this one some actual thought... Here's the easiest fixes, then to more complex/ to ripping it off entirely. Despite last years success I look at this team I think to myself it doesn't fit the mold to win a Championship with Tony at the helm with how he manages. So the question then becomes, do you can Tony, or re-tool to fit his needs? I'd be most in favor of starting with a mix-up of coaching staff. The Firing Squad Route: Probably the least realistic. doesn't JR have a long track record of barely ever firing in-season? I know it's happened a few times, but don't think it happens very often, nor to one of his cronies. So TLR is here to stay in 2022. I personally think he transitions to the payroll elsewhere for 2023 ... in classic Sox mode, fail upwards. So if were firing now, it's the hitting coach. Menechino has to go as do the base coaches. It's not a huge thing, but we need to show urgency and those are bottom guys on the totem pole. Also heres the stats for team walks ... 22 Cleveland 2.89 2.00 3.00 3.09 2.72 2.80 23 Boston 2.88 1.67 3.00 2.50 3.22 3.17 24 Texas 2.84 2.67 3.00 3.04 2.64 2.67 25 Baltimore 2.79 3.67 2.00 3.00 2.60 2.78 26 Cincinnati 2.79 3.00 3.00 3.08 2.47 3.41 27 Miami 2.74 1.00 0.00 2.76 2.72 2.78 28 Oakland 2.49 4.33 4.00 2.70 2.29 3.36 29 Detroit 2.42 2.33 1.00 2.67 2.15 3.02 30 Chi Sox 2.41 2.67 1.00 2.63 2.19 3.60 There's no way the Sox should be in last in the majors with the amount of all-star caliber guys we have. Moncada and Yaz healthy can go a long way here, but overall this is awful. Assuming we shuffle TLR after this season I'd unfortunately settle for a guy like Naquin even though he doesn't move the needle for me. It allows Sheets to be sent to AAA. Outside of that? if Yaz is truly healthy I'd cut Reese McGuire. You have your lefty bat, and you roll with the hotter bat for the remainder of 2022 in Seby. Neither are likely the answer, but you can't waste a roster spot. So cut him and bring in an arm ala Cueto.. that might just be VV for the time being. Otherwise its a warm body thats similar. We need innings ... and lots of them. We have no chance of any success if we use Cease/Kopech to their max before end of season. That's it. Then you just hope that pure talent and a hot/healthy streak sneaks you in the playoffs. Cross your fingers and hope for the best knowing you likely lose in the ALDS. This roster is flawed and not a WS contender, but squint and maybe all the stars align for 3-4 weeks. The more complex way: This is actually my preferred method. The FO should know their guys more than me, but overall you can't have a roster consisting of: Abreu, Eloy, Burger, Vaughn and a version of Yaz that can only catch half the games. It's not going to win you anything, not this year and not next. To me one of Eloy or Vaughn has to go with whoever sticks around being the fulltime DH and playing field maybe 2 games a week. They are valuable enough names where you should be able to find a great return that makes both teams better. I'd prefer Vaughn sticks around, but obviously you're selling low on Eloy. Burger likely has no home either. You can't keep a bat like that around as backup DH/3B, it's just of no value to the overall team. Allows zero flexibility. He's a classic flip guy for a bullpen arm. You have to build an OF that makes sense. Pollock is likely back next year and that's not entirely the worst thing. He should be your everyday LF knowing that he's going to be injured and give you about 110 games max meaning your 4th OF is super important. Engel is not that guy either. I was out on him, then loved him, now am back out. If he's your 4th OF, fine, but it's not preferable. Robert is CF and RF NEEDS TO BE an actual major league talent. Unfortunately if you look around there's not much out there lefty OR righty that fits the bill for us and the other team. Eloy to me has always been Carlos Lee. And Carlos Lee for Podsednik is kind of where my head is at. On surface it may not be a 1 for 1, but overall it makes the team better. The one name I could come up with was Cedric Mullins. Both are controllable for a bit and maybe they like Eloy for his power potential. That said .... they have Hays/Santander on the corners already. Eloy I guess would just slot into DH for Mancini. But trading Mullins doesn't really make them a better team... or give them cheaper/longer control. And the top guys they have coming up are corner OF. So ... ya ... unlikely. Maybe someone like Boston and Jarren Durran? Speedy guy who has talent. If you have an OF of Robert and Duran chasing down balls there's not many touching the ground ... Nick Senzel ... he's about as hurt as Eloy always is too. Same idea though. Former 2nd overall pick. Currently in CF for Reds, but can play 2b too ... like the flexibility. Is there something in Colorado? Maybe Brendan Rodgers and ? for Eloy? He'd be a monster out there. I just don't love their OF guys. Hold my beer on this one ... it's insane to say out loud ... but Mike Trout. I almost think they could do a 1 for 1. And maybe I'm off my rocker, but $35mm for 8 more years? Not Jerry's style. But that franchise is in disaray and if they're not getting Ohtani to extend? Then they're going to sell him ... all of a sudden they're probably seeing what they can get for Trout. I'm not sure anybody can name what a fair price is of taking $270mm contract of an oft-injured 31 year old for 8 more years is though. Nor do I think it's necessarily even a contract I'd risk taking. That said ... Trout in RF, Robert in CF?? wowzas. How about Castellanos? Not a great year out in Philly ... maybe they sell low and can pick him up more along the lines of a Jake Burger + Joe Kelly type of price? Or Graveman ... he's a righty, but I bet you could get him on the low right now. Bryan Reynolds obviously, though again, I don't see the upside necessarily for Pirates. Esteury Ruiz on the Padres? A righty again ... a guy who stole 71 bases in like 60 games this year so far in the minors. batting like .350 ... can play 2b and OF ... Dylan Carlson on the Cards? I don't see the Cards wanting Eloy with Oneil in LF, but maybe as DH? He's a switch hitter, young, controllable. Josh Lowe on the Rays ... probably would have to add a few bullpen type arms on from them. Or maybe add Vidal Brujan as well? It's a lot to chew on, but the main idea here goes back to that Carlos Lee trade.. we can't have a bunch of station to station DH types on this team. Abreu is still Abreu so that's not opening up the DH slot, and good ... that's a good problem. But then you need to trade on of the big lugs to get the bases moving, the ball in play.

All announcers are kind of an acquired taste. I'm sure we could go back to 2019? or whatever year he started calling the Sox games and our takes were completely different. For baseball especially it becomes almost part of the ambience of the game itself. It's a routine of ours as fans to sit down and spend 2-3 hours with them almost nightly. Benetti has a great cadence, line of questions, makes the game approachable to the average fan, but also doesn't dumb it down. His banter and time filling is strong and works well with Steve Stone. Ultimately in a perfect world I'd introduce a 3rd broadcaster to the booth to balance out the old dad jokes and add even more perspective to the booth. Overall he's a B+ to A- for me. Really my only complaints are the sense of humor is an acquired taste and he tends to beat a dead horse a bit. I think we're going on like game 300 of them singing the nationwide jingle and then rating right after "pretty good, brought the A game today" If I never had to listen to another Nationwide jingle and subsequent critique of it I'd be happier. haha. Agree, less filler and he's really damn good. aka, football, basketball, etc. Lucky to have him, and now that he's established himself as his own person? I wouldn't actually mind him either coming up with a few of his own tag lines or maybe incorporating a few Hawkisms to kind of turn into "white sox'isms" for generations. They don't have to be overused, but a few ducksnorts or can of corns would be nice. Think you can put it on the board every few homers would be nice. a tasteful usage could be nice.

yah not sure what's going on. he clearly got married via all the posts ... so he can't be THAT sick. he also clearly chose to get married during ASB ... and why would sox give him a honeymoon? the sox are in the middle of trying to win and he's an okay bat. but of course sox brass are tight lipped.

That's a good point.. I just looked up his D stats ... I take back my post. Even if his bat is special and he brings a Lefty/Switch to the table I can't have an OF with Bell AND Eloy. We're for sure getting Adam Engel 2.0 Lefty arent we in Naquin?

Bell makes so much sense. If there was a bat I'd overspend on it'd be him. Fills the Switch/lefty and corner OF. It's the kind of move that actually puts you on par with some of the best teams. Getting a guy like Naquin ... who is exactly who i think we get ... doesn't put you over the top. It just gives a better chance at winning the ALDS. Same things when talking about pitchers. Quintana just fills innings like VV does in my opinion. The idea of someone like that is really just to eat innings to allow guys like Kopech and Cease to be fresh for the playoffs. If you're not going out there and getting a top arm, then whats the real point? Davis Martin and VV can do that job almost as well.

okay, sure. haha. that's a lot of work for a post where it'll never happen regardless. lol. but sure - in spirit of wasting time on a board it's a well thought out post and you are correct ... we have SOME shot in an upside down world where Jerry Reinsdorf is signing people and living with the cast of stranger things ... my post was more hyperbole in that the sox do not offer big contracts, do not take salary, washington doesn't care about dumping salary, and we have no prospects.

yep. agree all around. that's why i put that next line saying they're not a cheap franchise. They've cleared all contracts except those two. they'll eat 70mm a year for a few years gladly because they care about winning. sox would also never offer a deal like that because we don't like spending money so to add corbin PLUS a soto PLUS extend him? its laughable. all around we stand like 27th out of 30th in a trade partner for soto

I love these type of threads. Win two in a row and lets roll! When we traded Sale we got the (former?) #1 prospect in baseball and Kopech who was what at the time ... top 30? Seeing as we have Colson clocking in at #99? Ya, it's not happening. if all 30 teams put together an offer with minor leaguers ... we'd likely be a bottom 5 offer. The way it'd work, and the only way it'd work ... is if the Sox decided to take on Strasburg contract, Corbin contract, etc. and then also probably give up a piece like Vaughn + Colson. Theoretically that may be worth it to them. that said they are not a cheap franchise and thus clearing a bad contract v. getting actual prospects (multiple projectable ones)? They're taking the prospects every day.

not going to lie i was losing it pregame with sheets in RF, made me shut my mouth quickly. still don't love it though. we can't continue to put him in RF when you have engel, pollock and eloy healthy. the leury in LF is even more inexcusable. but a win is a win and it was an awesome day out. the park was very empty in my opinion for that nice of a day/saturday.

when compared to MPG in the models of cars being driven today (mostly 2017-2022 models) and then taking into nominal inflation .. not todays inflation, but your standard 3% or so, the gas prices are actually lower today than when July 2008 hit $4.11 a gallon. Either way demand destruction is real. I'm not sure you'll see above $6 gas again in Chicagoland anytime soon. You'll likely see a combo of summer blend going away, tax holiday, etc. All will keep that price hovering around $5. My personal guess though.