he gone.

Alright, today's action. I'm on, in order of confidence: Jays/Rays over, Giolito over 6.5K's, White Sox ML, Astros/Twins under 2.5 F3 innings Astros/Twins: I have to look up the record of Twins without Buxton. Was crazy last year, and this year too. I don’t think it’s just a coincidence. Both pitchers aren’t going to walk many and will strikeout their fair share. Both offenses are struggling, Astros specifically. But overall the Twins are overrated when it comes to their offense – they hit home runs and live and die by the homer. Greinke isn’t a guy who historically lets up fly balls, he keeps the ball low, grounders, though that does lead to baserunners, and thus his 4.03 ERA. Greinke line drive rate high – Also his numbers 2nd and 3rd time through the order are bad. Really bad 3rd time through. Probably plays well for a playoff series though. Both guys don’t do well later in their outings. Maybe F5 under. Also all that being said, -172 is a lot on the Twins. I get that Maeda is better & the Astros aren’t great this year, but still seems like a lot of juice. Also no Josh Donaldson today. Between no him or Buxton? Last year went 48-23 with buxton and 13-15 w/out him. Overall they have .564 winning percentage with him, and a .453 w/out him. Maybe F3 under? I’ll go 4-3 Twins Final. WHite Sox/A’s: I’ll start saying that the Sox are 14-0 in games where they oppose a starting lefty. A’s are also pitching a rookie … albeit a very good rookie. He’s raw though, got nasty stuff, but very much liable to let up runs … he’s let up 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 8 starts. And one of those good starts came against the Dbacks who are just terrible. I like runs from the Sox. Likewise, Giolito making his first playoff start too. He’s been good, but since that no hitter? 29IP, 15 runs scored, which is like a 4.75ERA or so. Oakland offense has been struggling very much so the last 10 days. And the Sox also. But I think 7.5 for a game total is low. I’ll also test my bias & hope the Sox go 15-0 against lefties this year, especially at -110. Giolito is not going to let up hard contact, low and slow. Giolito can go 6ip+. Giolito on road, ERA is 2.50. Sox offense has been just terrible, even against lefties in last 300 PA. A’s struggling just as much. That scares me. I think the lean has to almost be Sox. Sox bullpen not doing great of late either. A’s bullpen of late really bad too. Hmmm….. I’ll go with a 6-3 final, White Sox and Gio getting his K's. Jays/Rays: Jays have been one of the most potent offenses this year and Bo Bichette is back. Blake Snell has not pitched more than 5.2 innings this year… he’s also let up multiple runs in 5 of his last 7 games. Shoemaker isn’t going more than 5IP either, making only one start since an injury he had in August. Between rust and just being an okay pitcher, I’d say 4ip, 2er is probably a good guess. Shoemaker allows a ton of hard hit and elevation. Then it’s a bullpen game. 7.5 just seems really low. Flip side +175 also seems like a good value, maybe a F5 +1.5 for Jays? Jays offense is doing great, underlying stats not so much. Rays offense is struggling. K’s a lot. Yuck on offense. Rays bullpen has been on fire of late. Jays bullpen real bad of late. F5 Tor +1.5? Still think 7.5 over Over 7.5 Best guess: Rays 6, Jays 4 Yanks/Cleveland: I’ll just pass entirely. No reason to get involved in a game like this. Some ducksnort will drop and an errant throw and the final ends up 2-1 some team. Don’t feel like betting that game. Though at even money, and dependent on how the early slate goes, if forced, give me that Yankees offense all day over Cleveland offense.

If you give McCann an extra million and the guarantee you're trading him to the team he wants to go to? I don't see the downside. The other team very much so would still pay. if you're giving ... 3 years, $33mm to McCann you will definitely give 3 years, $34mm plus an arm like a Heuer, a pick like Gavin Sheets, Steele Walker, Stiever, Burdi, Alec Hansen, Jake Burger etc. Those meh, maybe, okay, might make a difference, might find it, might fade out prospects. Just enough shine to see the light types. It's not conventional thinking for baseball, but very normal in NBA. There's definitely a market for McCann, and that market will still be there in the age of NL DH + scarcity at catcher.

If they truly go Manaea game 1 i will be very happy. we also have to take advantage of that. If i were them I'd be going Luzardo, Bassitt & then matchups via bullpen/Montas/Minor/Manaea game three. (though I'm not sure how quickly after this series the next series starts ... i think it's like Monday? I stand by this if there are 3 days in between) For Sox i think you approach the same way, Gio, Keuchel and then bullpen game of Dunning/Rodon/Crochet, etc. I actually wouldnt mind mixing that up too ... putting the bullpen game two against bassit and then keuchel game 3.

To be fair, do you want to watch Chris Bassit, Tommy LaStella, Mark Canha & Co. v. Sox .... or do you want to watch Bieber v. DeGrom. Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Judge, Stanton, Torres, etc? I think 95% of people would rather watch the Indians and Yankees. And eyes drive money which drives the TV times.

This is a great post. Like the Padres making all these recent trades - at some point - and with no help from no minor league season - we're going to have a roster crunch for the 40 man & have to make some tougher decisions.

I still wonder how a negotiated sign and trade would work in MLB. Let McCann set his market in FA, match what he was going to get, and then trade him to the few teams he was considering. It's zero risk. Someone will take him and we should at least get a mid level prospect back. I mean I think very realistically he could net you a David Dahl and/or Garrett Hampson. Solves a UTIL guy and RF (although be it stop gap ala Mazara)

I don't care about high walk rates that much. A walk from Madrigal or a single from Madrigal are the same thing. What they could use is a guy who takes more pitches. But we can't be that choosy. This team needed/s a few more guys who can consistently get on base. Madrigal checked that box very well. Vaughn should do the same for this team. Robert taking the next step will help that. Really a perfect type of RF could be someone like Nick Markakis as a stop gap. Not flashy, but gets on base.

The consensus is RF is the big hole (too bad we didn't sign Bryce Harper, man that would have solved literally everything for a decade). Looking around the depth charts though I just don't know who would be available + at what price. https://www.rotoworld.com/baseball/mlb/depth-charts I went through this and when you start eliminating teams that won't trade with us (division) + teams who are in the hunt and unlikely to trade a nice piece in RF + guys who are even worth trading for? The list is quite small. On the surface you'd think a lot of teams have good RF, but really, it's not that easy. Conforto and Polanco stick out as targets. But with new Mets management, not sure they're looking to trade him in his final year. Polanco to me isn't a solution, so not worth it. Dahl, Avi, Hilliard, etc. as i mentioned earlier... nothing that exciting out there that truly makes us a better team.

Truth. When the Sox were terrible I adopted many teams to kind of watch on a semi-regular basis just to mix it up. Rockies were one of them ... just terrible management there. They never commit to anybody. Arenado should've been traded 2-3 years ago at peak value. Amazingly they wasted another year this year ... Matt Kemp, Kevin Pillar, Ian Desmond, etc. They continue to bring in these old vets that should only be complementary pieces, not taking roles from Hampson, Rodgers, McMahon, Hilliard, Tapia, Dahl, etc. etc. etc. They would benefit from a Rays like evaluator. They should've been trading their bats (arenado/blackmon,etc) for sinker baller guys like Dakota Hudson and anybody who keeps the ball on the ground. The team really is just so poorly ran. Hell, the Sox could probably add Arenado to their roster for free and move Moncada to RF if they wanted to explore that option. (he has that opt-out which also isn't ideal) Not saying that's the right call, just saying RF isn't really prime for picking this offseason with perfect fits ... Springer to me is the only fit that makes absolute sense. Outside that, Marte? Then its really just finding one year solutions again. The next year would be Conforto ... but not much else. So really, we need to figure out RF via trade, or hope that Adolfo or Rutherford somehow find it (maybe on micker, but doubtful that we have more than an engel in rutherford). Order of preference would be Springer, Trade, wait and see approach.

Was slow on reading this thread. Great synopsis. Agree with everything you laid out. My thoughts to add to it: UTIL IF - Mendick fills that role pretty good, don't see the need to go out and get anybody, but maybe you go and get a veteran guy as well there. SP - I think its feasible that those guys listed can get the job done and you have talented arms in waiting, just think if we truly are going to contend you add another arm. My own plan would be to start Keuchel, Giolito, Dunning and then have Cease/Rodon/Lopez/Kopech/Crotchet, etc. all just piggy back. Keep their inning limits down through a long season, but also drive competition. If someone breaks through, give them more innings. Bauer is clearly the other move and the only name I think is worth the $$. Don't go wasting money on a Robbie Ray (were linked to him in trade rumors, would be a disaster). I'd consider Alex Wood too, just to fill 70IP, maybe he's healthy at the right times and you get a nice playoff arm. Maybe roll the dice on a Kluber. But again, don't think any of it is necessary. if you're spending money go get the guy who can put you over the top. RF - Only real options are Starling Marte (not sure if that club option moves to the Marlins at 12.5mm or not) Springer, and Castellanos which who knows if he ops out of 3/48mm. I guess you can throw in Brantley too, but that's a sloppy RF. M. Ozuna is an option too - but again, throwing him in RF isn't ideal. I'd take any of the first 3 options. Other than that I think the reality is you have to go out and make a trade for a RF via prospects. Guys I'd consider: David Dahl/Garrett Hampson/Sam Hilliard - buy low candidates. Probably doesn't cost much, however it feels a little Mazara to expect them to breakout. That being said the Rox suck at developing their young guys. They never let any of them get consistent at bats. Also doesn't help that none of them have really made a case for consistent AB's. Hampson intrigues me as a guy who can cover CF, RF, 2B, etc. nice utility guy. Avi Garcia - He'd literally be free, just have to pay his $10mm salary on 1 year basis. Could be worse fixes. Mitch Haniger - who knows what you get off of injury, but probably buying low. MIght be worth it.

I'll take those tank picks. Championship rosters need 20 guys who can do a job, and do it consistently and well. You only need 5 or so guys who are superstars. A few power, impact bats, a few power pitchers. We should have those in Eloy/Robert/Abreu/Giolito/Anderson. The rest need to be able to work counts, get on base, etc.

I'd like to see the Sox do something along the lines of the Rays next year. Bring back Rodon one more time (yikes, i know), have Crotchet, Kopech and him all work as openers. Maybe something like 1-4 innings per appearance. Lopez too. Your rotation should remain with Gio and Keuchel as starters. Dunning can be one, but he may be better off piggy backing off on of the aforementioned guys while he builds his innings up. Cease? Wild Card. But I just think, why limit roles for these guys? The last three spots can be held down by a group of 4-6 *possible* long term starters (rodon, kopech, dunning, cease, crotchet, lopez). (lopez is probably out) But in this scenario you can get all those guys 100+ innings and start leaning on ones that break away from the pact for more.

I understand that angle too. I think a lot of Sox fans got wrapped up in the fact we were hot for a few weeks. I think we have to balance who that came against. It's a sign of a good team to beat up on the bad ones. But realistically this team is exactly what I still think it was going into the season .... young, inexperienced, etc. It was going to be up and down and i think if we played 162 this year finishing around the 85 win mark is probably what this team really is. The issues are what have hurt the Cubs/Twins in the past... aka, you can't just rely on home runs. even in today's game. you have to be able to be situational hitters, smarter AB's, and put the ball in play. HR teams can get hot and that can carry them for weeks on end, but when cold you turn into the Cubs of the past few years. I've said in the past, and continue to say even now, this isn't the year. Next year isn't the year either. This is the year to have nice stretches and bad stretches and to learn from them. Next year is a year where realistiically, in a perfect scenario we could win it all, but the following year is the real year. Things I wanted to see this year: Cease/Dunning/Rodon/Kopech learning, growing, figuring out how to pitch at the major league level sucessfully, and showing they can do it for a full season. I can't say that has happened much. Kopech didn't suit up. Rodon was hurt again all season. Cease has been Lopez of a few years back - he has the stuff, but not really putting it together. Dunning looks like a guy who can be a mainstay as a 3/4 guy. one out of four pitchers taking that next step is really disappointing. I would have liked to see two of the guys solidify their role as pitchers who are mainstays. Giolito/Moncada - I wanted to see them repeat their success and take that next step into true studs. I think we can confirm that this year with gio. so take that as a positive. moncada? To me he's turning into Joe Crede. Which isn't necessarily a knock - it's just that he's not going to be Arenado/Machado or some stud 3B as we hoped. He can still be a decent piece on a Championship team. I just don't think he's going to be the reason we win. Nonetheless he should be able to hold down the corner spot fine enough in that 6/7 hole in the lineup IMO. Robert/Madrigal - get a feel for what we have there. I think I'm confident in both guys that their play into the future well. Robert is what I thought - now it's his turn to readjust to pitching and pressure/weight of doing it consistently. I really wish he had a full year ... but confident next year or the following year you'll see him "figure it out" completely and take that step to being a top 20 bat in the league. Madrigal just is about as worry free as you can have, and i think thats important. RF - still a hole. Still a disaster. Engel though looks like he can be that nice 4OF on a championship team which to me is a huge step compared to coming itno the year. Eloy - The defense is disappointing, but i like his approach at the plate a bit better. Still cant say I'm not disappointed with his progress. Overall I give the Sox a B on the year, but in no way do i really think we'll be able to grind it through the playoffs and come out the other end.

Am one of the few that don't really care if we win the division? I really don't care what seed we play. I'd love to play the Astros, Blue Jays, Oakland, Twins ... those are the teams I'd want in a 3 game series. Outside of that? I don't really care if we finish 2 seed or 7 seed or anywhere in between.

Been traveling and with geolocating, now gambling for IL. I'm on the Dodgers big tonight. Montas has been knocked around and the last few weeks for the A's have been a struggle to get bats on balls. I like this value here too since they're giving Oakland a lot of credit. Also on Nola early, and the over in the Marlins/Braves game. Lots of walks to be had in that game, think there will be some runs scored. Marlins actaully been hitting pretty well of late, not power numbers, but doubles. Let's get back on the right track!

Whoa. Talk about under the radar. I had him pegged in my memory as a slightly above average player.

Few thoughts: 1 - this has a lot more angles to explore than just the surface. Meaning, at the surface, my first reaction is this is stupid! Now if we were the Sox of a year or two ago, or even this year in Spring Training, i think we selfishly say, this is cool. I like it. Basically meaning, it benefits the fringe teams, which i think is kind of ridiculous considering the length of the season. However, on the flip side, extended playoffs also means a few more things. It almost turns into hockey playoffs - meaning, any team can win, and if any team can win, then you probably see more teams like the Pirates holding onto assets like Gerrit Cole and less teams like the Sox/Royals/Tigers completely tanking for a period of time. More competitive teams, equal more competitive and fun regular season games. So i think, at least on the surface extended playoffs = less super teams and better "bad teams" which i think is good overall. 2 - we dont know the structure yet. I personally would not want to see a three game series stick around post this year. variables are too high in a 3, hell even a 5 game series. I'd much rather see 7 game series, minimal time off between series and games, throughout the entirety of the playoffs. In this scenario I think the variables are lessened. Basically, if you have 7 games, and no off days, then theoretically a team that maybe snuck in is going to have a tough time against the Dodgers. So in the NL for example, let's say the Brewers sneak in this year as an 8 seed and the Dodgers are the 1 seed. Maybe in a 3 game series things go haywire and milwaukee advances. I think it's much more unlikely that over a 7 game series, with no off days, that milwaukee wins 4. Rotation depth, team depth, etc. All the things that got you to the playoffs SHOULD ultimately win you the series. Now not always true, but thats the beauty of it. Kind of like hockey playoffs. 3- you have to shorten the season to accomplish this. I don't want to see the current format and i want to minimize the variables, therefore in order to fit it all in you have to chop off about 12 games. make it a 150 game season and you can use that extra week for the playoffs. If those few suggestions are followed: 7 game series, minimal off days? Then i think i am very for extended playoffs. If you keep it with the same structure as this year? And then allow off days like in the past? Then I'm very against it because you're not rewarding the long season in any way.

15-16 -- just big yikes yesterday. weird how when gambling is momentum too. Don't get it. Try to stay as neutral as possible, but just didn't see Flaherty getting mauled. Just a rough rough stretch. But onward and upward. Yankees run line parlayed with Rays run line (the latter scares me a bit, but Voth has been getting mauled) Yankees TT Rays TT Sox ML

Wonder some takes on comparing these guys to past Sox guys and/or other guys + what kind of career you think they may have.. I’ll start with a few: Eloy Jimenez – Carlos Lee: I see him as a solid, solid bat. Guy who can have a very long career, make a handful of All-Star Games, maybe have an outside MVP type season, probably better suited at DH in the long run. Dunning – Buehrle/Garland/Quintana: not necessarily comparing stuff here. Just in terms of guys who kind of get it done quietly. Even if he has 5 great years in a row, I feel like he’ll never get the national accolades. Yoan Moncada – Joe Crede: When hot, he’s hot and can carry a team. But a guy who maybe gets injured too often and is inconsistent. The talent is no doubt there, is capable of all star seasons, being a long term piece, but never really breaks out to that next level Nick Madrigal - This one will be a very loose interpretation. Hopefully others can provide a better comp. This one only applies to 2020-21 …. Pods/Iguchi. In the sense I think he’s the GLUE of the team. So, the unsung guy that provides a very important role, but isn’t really noticed. Luis Robert – Frank Thomas/Ken Griffey Jr.: Now this isn’t a 1:1 type comparison. They’re different players for sure and bring different things to the table. But in terms of just true baseball, god given talent, he’s an Acuna level player. Tatis, etc. He’s an all-decade team talent. Injury history scares me.. but outside of that I think he has the talent to be the face of the franchise for the decade. I look at him, then I look at eloy. He makes Eloy almost look average. You can see the talent oozing out of him. He’s a MVP type candidate year in and year out while Eloy is a All-Star candidate year in and year out. Just my opinion obviously and not a knock on eloy. Tim Anderson – I really don’t have a comp for him at all. Would be interested in peoples takes. I can’t really find a comp to him on the Sox. I almost think Vlad Guerrero as a non-Sox comp but that might be super generous. I’m trying to think of free swingers who just have the “it” factor. I’m going to say something controversial here … I think Tim Anderson is close to the level of pure talent as Luis Robert. I think he can consistently be in the MVP race … and that’s not just on this year or last year, I think it’s based on the adjustments he’s made, the speed, the power, etc. Feel free to add names!

Season record: 14-13 (0-4 on one dodgers game -- still think i have to put that down because outside of that the numbers aren't bad -- and it's not like I'm piling on picks of -180 or -220 to get there. Also I'll die on that sword because it was like the twins game last night where run a simulation 1,000 times and usually the twins are putting up 8 instead of 1 run. very easily that 14-13 record could be 18-9, everything was there, just not the luck. okay last time talking that game... was so bad it had me taking off gambling for much of the past 3-4 days. Todays games: Cubs/Indians F5 under - simply put darvish is on fire, carrasco is hot of late too, both offense leave a lot to be desired Angels TT over - offense from them has been iffy, on & off, but they take walks, dont strikeout, etc. however what they don't do is elevate the ball and that is bumgarners worst trait this year. he's allow 4HR!! per nine. just getting barreled and shelled with his 86mph fastball. if it wasn't for the groundball/linedrive/flyball splits from the angels offense i'd probably put like 5 units on this game Cardinals F5 run line -0.5 - flaherty on the mound + cardinals hitting LHP very well this year lines up for a nice game IMO. I can see a 3-1 or 4-1 type score after 5. Mets and Phillies over. Both bullpens struggling, both offenses hot, both pitchers past their prime, though porcelllo beter of late. almost took the mets here, but just think there should be enough scoring to go around to hit the 10 runs. I did do a decent sized parlay on these .... which is dumb. But i really really like flaherty, darvish and dislike bumgarner ... to me, the kicker will be that last game Mets/Phillies that bursts the bubble. But i got like 13:1 odds on it, so lets cross some fingers. being selective on 3 game parlays is usually the way to bolster my pockets, stretching here adding the 4th. may come back & bit me.

I think my order is this ... Giolito, Dunning, Keuchel, Cease, Gio, etc. Cease is a disaster waiting to happen. not saying he doesn't have good stuff, but I think he's still likely a year or so from it all clicking finally. Hopefully it clicks for him like it did for giolito and not like lopez. But I'd want Keuchel on the mound in a game 3.

Hand up - I'd have to dig into my posts from 2-3 years ago, but i was wrong on TA. He's always been one of my favorite players on the team, i just didn't see this next level as a possibility. Right now, just on eye test I give the slight edge to TA as the MVP on this team, and therefore the league.

12-11 season record (0-4 on one dodgers game FWIW), so individual games not actually bad. Todays Games: Angels TT over at Rox. Freeland has been a bit of an enigma. Great rookie season, terrible second season, and thus far really good on road, awful at home. I just tend to think between him and the Rox bullpen runs will be scored. Cardinals ML - Hudson has been very godo this year. keeps the ball down and gets ahead of the count with first pitch strike. like him a lot this year. Mets TT over - I don't want to mess with going against the Jays and that offense, so I'm cheering for offense on Mets side. R. Ray on mound. hes awful, throws as many balls as strikes. mets have a good ofense. was a bit scared to bet against ray last time out because it was his first time with the jays after the trade, thought maybe they saw something correctable, however he was just as bad. Phillies F5 - stay away from that bullpen, but give me the youngeter howard and that offense against urena for 5 at okay ML.

Where he is hitting in the lineup is a Ricky issue. I'll echo the 70% of the season thing. it's semantics. 45 games into the season is what? mid-may or so? Look at his splits for his career. he starts slow historically. throw in a truncated spring training? based on his career trend line he should be heating up just in time for the playoffs which is a good thing. who cares about the regular season when everybody gets in? April - .236ba/.430slg/.752ops May (where we are now) - .250ba/.496slg/.827ops June - (playoff time) - .277ba/.554slg/.932ops Obviously it's not great right now, and we have McCann too, so yes, probably he should be rotating a bit more, but he's got a long track record, whcih even at his age should hold some water. But it's a one year deal - this isn't like adam dunn. What would I do? mix in mccann more, move EE down a slot or two. Get EE 4-5 games a week still. hes the type of power bat that can really make a difference come october.

Yikes on yesterday. I ended up watching that Dodgers game, and yikes is the only way to describe it. They had 2nd/3rd nobody out, nothing, bases loaded 1 out - DP, 1st and 3rd one out and did a double steal! Thrown out at the plate. Bumgarner served up EIGHT hard hit balls. 9 base runners in 5 ip. fjeoaijfeaiojfweojifa is how i feel. Just terrible luck there. Given the exact same game a day later? I'd do the same bet over again. But that is why gambling is gambling - any given day a perfectly lined up match up runs into a brick wall of bad luck. Didnt help that dustin may was also hit with a comebacker on the first batter of game and it was a bullpen game for dodgers.... eojfaowe 1-5 yesterday.. just awful. how easily though that couldve been 5-1 with a few breaks, but i have to keep the honest total Season record: 11-11 (sad!) Only doing one play today. That game murdered my balance - just want to keep it light and regroup for the weekend. I'm going with the Phillies in the Nola game of the doubleheader. they havent officially announced if it'll be castano or smith, but either or, phillies have a great offense, terrible bullpen, but id think nola should be able to do 6 of the 7 innings and hand it over to workman, or maybe full game. So let's roll & get back on track.