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Everything posted by he gone.
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Zack Wheeler: To the Phils (5yr 118); Sox had made BIGGER offer
he gone. replied to Soxnfins's topic in Pale Hose Talk
MadBum is a guy who doesn't get enough love right now. Not saying he's a better fit, but I think he's a better value. You can probably get away with MadBum on a 4 year deal at $65-70mm vs. Wheeler who's bids are going to be closer to 5/110. $40mm is no joke, plus one less year could be very nice when it comes to resigning some of our own young talent. -
Cole Hamels to the Braves, 1 year $18 Million.
he gone. replied to ChiSoxFanMike's topic in Pale Hose Talk
He would be a very Sox signing - overpaying for someone who has had home/road split issues going back to TX. Aging. Short term signing that really doesn't put us in a position to win anything, just wasting money. Save that $30mm over two years in 2020 and 2021 and apply it towards 2022 and 2023. No need to flush money down the toilet for someone who isn't going to be on a championship roster. Also Hamels has said in the past that he's willing to go year to year to join championship rosters ... the 2019 sox are not that. They are a 77-85 win team. This is just a really poor way of posturing through the media. True story I'd rather have Nova or James Shields (half joking) --- eat innings at $3-6mm on a one year deal. outside of adding a wheeler or strasburg or cole you just need a #5 guy who is there to compete, throw some QS, and put pressure on Lopez/Rodon to keep their spot. Also to help fill innings while Kopech is on a restriction plus who knows how his control is after a year off - he could very easily be one of those back and forth MLB/AAA guys throughout 2020 until he rights the ship. -
Zack Wheeler: To the Phils (5yr 118); Sox had made BIGGER offer
he gone. replied to Soxnfins's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Wheeler should be a nice addition if we get him. I'd do upwards of about $21mm and 5 years if necessary, however I don't think his value really is more than the $15-18mm range. The problem is that he's the best "realistic" candidate for so many teams that his contract is driven up ala Eovaldi last year. Signing someone like Wheeler and then re-signing Nova would be a great way to close the book for SP this offseason. You'd have a decent rotation and actually oculd even compete for the division in a best, best case scenario this year. The problem though is that it doesn't put you over the top for the future - Sox would still need at least one of their in-house options (Kopech, Cease, Rodon, Dunning) to take the next step forward like Giolito did and then also have Giolito take another step forward this year too. If your in-house options don't take that step forward the Sox would need to go out and acquire a Gerrit Cole. Wheeler is a nice option for regular season and even maybe an asset here and there in the playoffs as a 3rd starter. Just wish he wasn't going to be bid up so much.. Another name for thought: Alex Wood. Career era is great and nice ground ball pitcher. Can probably be had on a nice 1 or 2 year deal. Perfect kind of deal for the Sox IMO. Value wise and fit wise I'd almost rather have him. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml -
Pot meet kettle.
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Okay, well then what if Grandal's knees age like every other catchers have and he's just a DH? Grandal being the second coming of Jesus reminds me of the time SoxTalk was obsessed with Cespedes. Grandal is a fine player -- we need to temper the expectations - he's likely to be less than a .250 hitter and have a OBP of like .345 and hit 20 homers. Honestly he'll probably just put up a year like McCann did last year.
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To play contrarian what if the MLB moves to robot umpires. Take framing out of it and what is Grandal?
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Again, temper the excitement on Grandal and probably kick up a notch on Abreu. This board has watched probably 5 total games of Grandal in the background from their couch in the past 5 years but everybody is an expert on a guy with a career ops under .800 and who couldn't secure a multi-year deal last year. He's a solid catcher. There aren't a lot of those in the league. We have one that is better than most. He's not Mike Trout. He's not Yelich. He's not even Posey or Mauer in their primes. He's a solid catcher though. aka, in my tier 2.
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Everybody is free to their opinion. My personal Tier 1 doesn't have one Sox player in it. My tier 1 is reserved for players like Trout and Bregman and Bellinger and Betts, etc. As well as Verlander and Coles of the world. i would say we potentially have difference makers like that in Eloy, Kopech, Giolito, Yoan and Robert.
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Take the emotions of this Abreu contract, and the emotions of signing the Grandal contract and meet in the middle. That's where your heads should be at. Neither are winning or losing us a Championship. These are Tier 2 guys (Jose in his age is a Tier 2 guy). You need a number of these solid, dependable veterans on a winning team. The key still remains having a few guys breakout into Tier 1 stars. So far it looks like we have a few of those guys and we just have to hope they continue to develop. If we do those things we should be in a good position in a few years to go out and sprinkle in what you need at the time via minor league depth - whether that be a speed guy, a bullpen arm, a LHB, a Power bat, a contact guy, a TOR starter .... whatever the situation calls for. Don't worry - this is alright. We are still on the same path as long. Jerry paying Jose in 2022 shouldn't hold us back from spending to put together a championship roster in 2022. If it does, then we never really had a shot to begin. You either believe the money is there to spend or you don't. I'm cautiously optimistic.
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Didn't seem necessary to give him a third guarantee year, would've liked to see 2 years with a handsome "buyout" which would be more or less a thank you gift. This whole contract seems like the thank you gift though. I get what he did for you, and at a bargain for 6/68, so if JR wants to throw him some extra money I can see that (as long as it doesn't come out of future budgets), it's not great business, but i can see that angle. But in no world is Abreu worth $16-17mm a year when Edwin Encarncion is going to settle for 1 year and like $8-10mm. This won't end up being a TERRIBLE deal, but it's definitely taking undue risk and paying over market salary. But whatever. If there's someone to have faith in work ethic in -it's Jose. He's going to try and earn every last dollar and put in the work, let's just hope he doesn't break down too bad. The man deserves a run with the Sox when they're good - hopefully he can be the 2022 hero with like a walk off home run.
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not gonna happen, but my Christmas wish list is to sign Rendon, slide Moncada to RF and then sign Wheeler. Wait one year, and then go out and trade a few of your better minor league guys for the equivalent of what Cole was to the Astros or Sale was for the BoSox. Top ACE you traded for, Giolito, Wheeler, Kopech, Cease Robert, Moncada, Rendon, Eloy, Abreu, Grandal, (DH - EE??), Timmy, Madrigal
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Yes, they sat Grandal in the playoffs and then let him walk because they had prospects behind him... Grandal signed a 1 year deal - the Dodgers could have had him on a two year deal if they wanted to move on when the prospects were ready. The Dodgers were not fans of Grandal - they did not like how he called/received a gamd. Idk what to tell you. So... your argument is grandal is the best catcher in baseball but the Dodgers had prospects in their system so they let him walk. The Dodgers just played Russell Martin for nearly half their games. Good take a month ago by you when I said the sox should sign Grandal as a tier 2, complimentary guy and that he'd fit the mold to make the team better... you posted the following... But, now that we sign him you're all in. HAH!! Spare me. Your takes are cold, flip flop, and are consistently off base. They are statistically, factually wrong, but I don't want to rehash this over and over again.
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And was I wrong? I predicted almost in order the final remaining teams. 4 teams had a chance going into the playoffs this year. Astros, Dodgers, Nats ... and Yankees, but mostly because of their bats and bullpen. The rest needed everything to break right. Rays and Braves were the next closest. We're not up to snuff with any of those teams and won't be until 2022 (assuming no injuries and young guys continue to progress)
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I'm saying at the end of his contract .. so his ages 33 and 34. Look at Catcher historical results -- even the best like Posey really age poorly. Mauer is another example. Of course I hope it doesn't happen and maybe it will be less if we have him at DH a bit more over these next few years. But I think there's a real shot his HR total and ability to get on base drops with age and you're stuck then paying a big tab for a DH and occasional backup catcher.
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That's not exactly true. Pitching staffs are a HUGGGGEEEE driver of WS champs. The ones that were weaker had really, really strong offenses - aka the BoSox a few years ago. This year even with a perfect scenario and 90 wins we can't expect Kopech to have anything left in the tank (and innings limit) same with Cease. This year isn't the year. It should be more fun, but isn't the year. Nats - strasburg, corbin, scherzer BoSox - Sale, Price (this is a weaker year, but amazing offense) Astros - Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers, Morton Cubs - Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Lackey Royals - Cueto (this is really the exception) Giants - Bumgarner, Peavy
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Astros, Yankees, Dodgers. That's why. Also add in Braves, Nationals, Rays, A's, BoSox to an extent, Cubs, etc. We may win. Hell sign a few more people in the offsesason, sign Madrigal and Robert to deals (or just bring them up and start their clock) and yes, in a perfect world we could win 85 games. I'm not here to win 85 games. I'm here to win World Series and that window begins in 2022. (2021 is an outside shot dependent on future trades, FA signings and progress of some of our young guys, mainly our arms - Kopech, Cease, Giolito, Dunning, etc.) I'd just rather spend money that makes sense for the 2022-2025 time frame. I'm okay with this signing, but i don't want to hear the Sox cry poor going into the 2021-2022 offseason.
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I'll be the negative guy and get sh*t on for it and I don't care. This signing is a C- in my opinion. Again in my opinion. The good: It signals that we aren't going to sit around and accept anymore losing seasons. It gives us a nice OBP guy, fills a position of need and LHB. The bad: This move works for 2 years or so, but those probably won't be the two years we need him the most. In those years you're basically signing yourself up for an $18mm DH/1B and backup catcher who is going to hit .240, with like a .320 OBP and hit 15 home runs tying up capital in 2022 and 2023 when we really need that money the most. Aka, you're getting Yonder Alonso or any other average hitter that would cost 1/3rd of that. Again in a very Hahn move we could've just kept Navarez and applied $65-70mm elsewhere, but here we are. This isn't about 2020 since we're not winning any playoff series, so it's kind of a waste to get the best out of someone when it doesn't matter. Just my two cents. I'll take the signing, but it better not limit us in 2 years when it truly matters.
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I heard if Collins is in dugout even that the Sox pitchers' arms will fall off. I don't see how any of them can even throw a strike if Collins is behind the plate. Sox won't even win 50 games with Collins at catcher. He's the plague!
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Didn't think of this angle. White is a great comparison. Voglebach too. It's crazy how many talented guys don't seem to work out in the MLB. (I get that Voglebach had a good year - but still a man without a position and took like 8 consisent years of him pumping out great stats to even get traded for a bag of balls to the Mariners) Catcher or bust for Collins IMO - so might as well sink or swim with him in 2020 and figure it out (actually how 2019 shouldve been utilized)
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Which could be a real issue. If you look up Francisco Mejia's time with the Padres this year, when he was behind the plate the pitchers ERA's were all up like 1-2 runs. It was actually kind of crazy. But, then, damn how bad are the Sox at assessing and handling talent. If this is the case and he's really that bad at catcher why wasn't he in LF or 1B or 3B or somewhere learning to be a mulit-tool. The White Sox brass seem like they are ready and willing to give up on him before it even begins. To me, if he has a good arm and calls a good game, we can fix the other stuff. Go hire one of hte retired Molina brothers and teach Collins.
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serious question - what is his downfall at Catcher defensively? Does he call a bad game? bad framer? bad at blocking balls? bat at throwing guys out? All of the above? I'm just trying to figure out why everybody doesn't like him. Beacuse otherwsie you have a guy who can hit probably .240 with an OBP of like .340 with a bit of pop and LHB at the catcher position. I guess I jsut haven't paid attention that if he's really THAT bad at catcher.
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this post is a bit confusing to me. Gray actually has decent statcast numbers behind him, while Freeland, does not and by all accounts was actualyl really lucky his rookie year. Gray barrel % is above league average at 3.9% and sits right there with scherzer and strasburg. Now his hard hit percentage is bottom 20, which means balls are being hit hard, but not on the barrel which although not great, is also probably a sign of him throwing good pitches. What you want, or what you aim for in my opinion is ground ball out pitchers. Because with a good, rangy infield (which we should have) you can consistently count on those being outs. Now these aren't the type of guys you necessarily want to go for you in game 7 of the playoffs, but these are nice innings eaters who get you to that level. Dakota Hudson is a good example (not that hes available), but he pitches to contact, groundballs, gets outs, but is prone to a few seeing eye singles and bad games. ACtually Ivan Nova was top 10 in the league in ground ball outs, which really isn't a terrible resigning to eat innings. But others that are or may be availble are Ryu (5th) S. Alcantara (13th) Wade miley (17th), Wheeler (24th) Martin Perez (23rd), Musgrove (32nd).
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Unfortunately it likely won't be haha. I've been prone to pushing this thing along quicker in the past, but at this point, and this is a big IF, IF we are truly going to believe in JR to do this the right way, then that right way is to wait a year and go insane on Mookie Betts. Castanellos is a nice bat, makes good contact, hits a shit ton of doubles, good teammate, hard worker, etc. He's fine. But why plug a hole with a guy that we saw what his open market trade value was vs. Mookie? This 2020 team is not winning a WS so there's no reason to add long term, big spend FA yet. If we as a board look at last offseason we probably went into it thinking Moncada was a toolsy, but likely overrated bust and a replacement level or so player at 2B .... this offseason we think he walks on the moon and are okay with passing on Anthony Rendon at 3B. Same with Giolito .... we have a totally different outlook on Reynaldo Lopez too. The thing is we need to do that again & see what we have in a bunch of guys. The good news is that this year probably represents a year where baseball shoudl be fun to watch all year with the Sox. So enjoy the last season of cheaper tickets, short bathroom lines, competitive baseball and watching the likes of a Collins, Madrigal, Robert, Eloy, Cease, Kopech learn and struggle and grow. Outside of a few guys (Cole, Rendon ... maybe Strasburg ... ) there aren't a whole ton of guys I think we should really be breaking the bank for because it's likely to be more of an impediment to our true Championship window which begins in 2022 (2021 if all goes extremely well) True window goes back to what I'll always say **** 2021 might be us looking like the Braves and winning 90 games or the Astros winning 85-86 their first year when they lost to the Royals in the ALDS, or Cubs before their WS year. The talent will likely be there, but has to cure, learn how to win, be able to have pitching depth, etc. It may happen, but would be highly unlikely... 2022 is the year. (also that is assuming all players take positive steps forward... again... you look at the Cubs and almost any other team ever.... you have players who take steps forward, but also those who fall off..... Cubs fans thought their window would be ongoing forever.... look how quickly someone like a Happ or Schwarber not doing their job... or Addison Russell ... or even to an extent Kris Bryant .... etc etc. guys will regress. Moncada might not be the stud he was last year. Giolito may fall into old habits... things happen. injuries happen. That's why when you do win a WS its so damn satisfying.. everyhting has to fall into place. So my stance is to urge patience. We don't need another Herrera at $9mm a year for 3 years ... we need to save that money and apply it next offseason and the offseason after that.
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Exactly. Aka, see the Padres. They got fancy and flashy with their signings and now when they should be going out and signing big guys are strapped because of Hosmer, etc.
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EE has all the markings of a Sox signing. There are literally no suitors for him - I can basically think of maybe... 2-3 legit teams at most. Yankees, Toronto, Tampa. Those are the three that you can make an argument for. Literally every other team has ZERO need for him. He does have experience in the AL East plus with two of those teams, but I find it hard to seriously consider Tampa spending on him because they have so many cheaper alternatives. Toronto probably makes the most sense if he enjoyed his time there. But outside of that, the Sox have a very clear path to signing him for maybe like a 1 year, $7mm deal with a $1-2mm buyout as incentive with a 2nd year mutual option for like another $6-8mm. I'd rather have him than Moose just due to the length of contract. 1 year should allow EE to take on 30-40 games at 1B, Abreu can man 1B this year and then move into a DH role if and when Vaughn is brought up. Nice stop gap. Smart, affordable, productive. All makes sense to me. We don't need to sign any world beaters this off season, we just need to learn our young talents ceilings (Madrigal, Robert, Kopech, Moncada, Anderson, Collins, etc.) at the MLB level so we can assess for the real WS run of 2022 (or possibly 2021). Be patient and give these guys one more year and then we can plug the holes via FA and trade where necessary. I know people want to push the peddle down right now, but Astros, Yankees, Rays, A's, Boston and even Cleveland if they keep their pitching intact, are all wildly more qualified in the AL than we are in 2020. Not to mention the Dodgers, Nationals, Braves. Move slow, move cautiously, don't go all-in too early like the Padres did where you're now paying the price for bad signings that are getting in the way of your true window. This is the year you sign a few stop gap veterans who fill the bill and if truly you are going to spend for a few years in a championship window? You save that money now and apply it later. So give me EE, give me Betances, give me a 1-2 year corner OF which means Puig or Adam Jones or Gardner. Give me a nice veteran arm that gets the job done. Win yourself 81 games, learn to win, learn from vets. Build up an innings base on Kopech and Cease. And then take your giant step in 2021 to where you're dropping $325mm on Mookie Betts, where you're trading 3-4 top prospects for a controllable arm ala Gerrit Cole to the Astros. Go sign yourself an expensive FA pitcher. And really relish those 4-5 years of being in the race each year. Next year FA class - Rizzo, LeMahieu, Mookie, Justin Turner DH, Cespedes DH, Brantley, Springer, Bauer (which by the way is a JR wet dream if he truly only signs 1 year deals each year), Kluber, Minor, Morton, Paxton, Quintana, Richards, Robbie Ray, Stroman, Archer. I mean to me... that's the year you plug your holes... You can acquire a SP on the trade market or in FA for much cheaper if those are the options available next off-season. I say be patient and you can have the leauge's best OF for 2021-2026 in Eloy, Robert and Betts. your Infield would be Moncada, anderson, madrigal and Vaughn. You can sign yourself any of the other bats listed above as your DH in some combination. TRade your farm for a top SP. Sign yourself Kluber or one of the guys listed... all of a sudden it's: 1)Top Trade target SP, 2) Giolito, 3) Kopech, 4) Kluber, 5) Cease as your rotation. I for once am saying just to be patient. Collect your 81 wins this year on a small payroll and then take your d*ck out and flop it on the table and declare to the MLB that you're the kings of 2021-2025.