he gone.

That would put us at a 50/50 shot for both (.5 * .5 =.25). I think 5-10% is more realistic. 50% for machado .... 15% chance for harper ... plus payroll constraints... JR history... us being the Sox... I'll say 6%.

I wouldn't be shocked, but I also wouldn't understand it. If it takes Tucker I think its a mistake. Also I don't really get these teams that were going after Realmuto either.. why not sign Ramos for 2-3 years like the Mets. So much less to pay.

Not sure to be honest. It's the team that has everything.... MLB talent, AAA talent, depth... I'm not sure what they could want from us. Abreu clearly, but that doesn't make us any better. I guess they'd be looking at bullpen and arms? They just have a glutton of talent in the OF so I'm not sure what they do with it all. It's how the Blue Jays ended up with Teoscar Hernandez for Liriano rental. Not like Hernandez is some world beater, just a decent talent for a month of Liriano. Feel like a Kemp or Fisher probably wouldn't cost that much if you can find the right match.

I hope the Sox at least talk to the Astros. They should know our team pretty well from the Avi Garcia discussions. I'd look into, in this order, Derek Fisher -- really like his bat and intangibles all around. He's been stuck in this weird up/down role for them for two years now. This would be a buy low situation. Tony Kemp - He could step right in and fill CF pretty admirably in my opinion. I think they like him, but not enough to not bring in Brantley Josh Reddick - I think at this point it's almost where the Astros would have to throw in some money too. I think he has two years, $13mm a piece left. I don't think he's worth that money, but maybe I'd take him on at $8-10mm a year for two years if we don't get Harper. Stick him in LF or RF with Eloy. Again, not actually advocating that, but saying I'd maybe kick the tires on it. The first two on that list though I'd definitely WANT. The Astros are going to have a tough time fitting all those guys in the outfield along with Gurriel in LF every now and again. They now have Brantley, Reddick, Springer, Fisher, Kemp and Tucker. You could also have Marisnick for a bag of balls, but not sure how that's any better than having Engel really. Just some additional power.

Time for me to buy into the hype of this being a real possibility! eiojafweofjiaweofijwefio rollercoaster of emotions.

It'd never happen, but that would be kind of my preference and really cool. Pay each like $180mm for 4 years then have opt outs where it basically forces their hand to opt out. In 2020 you'd have Harper in RF, Eloy in LF, Robert in CF, __ at 1B, Madrigal at 2b, Anderson SS, Machado at 3B, Collins at C -- moncada at DH or something and your pitchers would be up and ready. Would be a fantastic 4 year run. Then as those youngers guys age and are ready for arbitrtation and extensions you have Machado and Harper off the books.

You know what's strange about this offseason? At the end of Game 162 it'd be my guess that the majority of fans wanted Machado over Harper. But after the playoff fiasco and Johnny Hustle comments coupled with the reality that Harper is a possibility the board and fans have really jumped onto the Harper bandwagon wayyyyy over Machado. I too almost find myself favoring Harper. I tried coming up with why ... the most I can figure is this: Harper, based on this track record and training, workmanship, etc. probably has a chance of aging more like a Thome or an Pujols- someone who puts in the work, in a professional, etc. On the flip side Manny seems like he'll age like Miggy Cabrera. Someone who probably has more raw talent than Harper, but after receiving a huge contract will let himself go and get a bit sloppy. One of those guys who can just produce in his sleep, but may have a season where he bats .225 because he got really lazy. That all being said, I think just by pure fit, Machado is clearly the better piece. With our outfield prospects and the overall landscape of OF's Harpers value isn't as great as Machado. He'd fill a void at 3B we haven't had in a LONG LONG time. I'd go 11 years, $345-360mm, Opt outs after years 4 and years 6 $150mm over the first 4 years, $66mm over the next 2 years, and then $130mm over the last 5 years. It assumes after the first opt out he'd have 7 years and $210mm left -- or about $30mm a year. Even with contracts escalating I think he'd be hard pressed to find a better deal at age 30. You front load that contract paying him like $40mm in years 1 and 2. I like the front loading idea a ton --- I'd pay Harper or Machado upwards of like $60mm in year one when we have nothing on the books if it gets them in the door. The more money we pay now the better flexibility it has for the future when it matters.

He's the kind of guy that 8/10 won't work out because of injury and age, but the kind of guy I still think the Sox should explore if we don't do well on the Manny and Harper signings. Tulo graded out as an above avg. defender going back to his last healthy season. His bat was always dangerous back in the day. The chances are that he's no more than a Yolmer type, but when you have no real 3B, he's not a bad cheap option to bring in.

That would be kind of cool to go all Tracy McGrady on him. Have like 20-30 fans show up in the dead of winter on a Monday afternoon

Isn't that kind of what I said though? I think our best case scenario is the second tier... teams 6-12. Those are the teams that stretch during a good run. That's what we were in 2005-2010 and before when we were in the thick of it. I personally wouldn't evne want to be a Top 5 spending team. I'd rather be in the second tier with the Astros, NYM, Toronto, etc. The prices to attend a Cubs or Yanks game isn't even funny. I'll take subpar ball for 5 year stretches if it means I can arrive late, sit wherever I want and afford a game.

This. Which is why it's probably best not to sign both guys. We will never be in the category of the Cubs, Yanks, BoSox, Dodgers. Just not going to happen. Our best case scenario will be Astros, Cardinals, Seattle, Toronto, NYM. Basically teams that stretch their payroll to fit their situations. Right now we're the Royals, Brewers, Cleveland, TB, Pit of the world. The Astros have handled this amazingly thus far. They are doing their best to be the Cardinals who I personally think have done the best at this over the past 20-30 years. Constantly retooling, calculating, making decisions of when to go big (offers to price, Stanton, etc.) and when to back down and trade assets or let them go (Pujols). That's the dream scenario for the Sox. Your room for error if you sign two massive FA is almost zero. Better to just sign one.

There's been rumors involving both the Padres and A's that they've discussed Profar. so he is available. Not sure the price.

True and false. Yes we'd be fine now. I think you just look at the Astros situation because they are probably the most similar to us. Meaning Houston is a big market, but generally does not spend like one. However they'll open up the checkbook to if the timing is right to make a prolonged run. I think that's probably the situation JR is in right now with his age. I can see him going on a 5-10 year binge of trying to get a WS (ala the Tigers) and then handing the team off or selling it. So that being said, the Astros started with almost nothing too. It's not year 1 or 2 or probably even 3 for the Sox that gets expensive with Harper and Machado. It's when the Eloy's start going to arb as well as your Kopechs, and Lopez, and Burdi, Moncada, Rodon, and Robert ,etc. etc. etc. You also have to think you'll likely add yourself a Verlander or some other veteran pitcher like a Greinke or whoever for a playoff run for a year or two on a trade... things add up quickly. They're talking $170mm+ in Houston which I think the Sox would do in the right situation, but still is a stretch. Also somewhere in the 10 years of Machado and Harper you're looking at signing Rodon, Kopech, Eloy, Moncada, etc. etc. If those guys all turn out well then you're making the call between 32 year old machado and 26 year old Eloy... It's not all about today - its about setting up the team for long term, reoccurring success.

I know this wasn't what this thread was about - but I'd love for the Sox to kick the tires on Jurickson Profar. Timing may be bad as you're buying high, but I think of him as an upgraded Leury and Yolmer combined. He brings you the ability to roster an extra arm in the bullpen because his ability to play 3b, ss, 2b, 1b, as well as the corner positions. For those of you that don't remember he was a MAJOR prospect who debuted at age 19. Some injuries and mixed results, but finally had a breakout year at age 25 last year. almost 600 Ab's with 88 strikeouts (LOVE TO SEE THAT), hit 35 doubles, 20 homers, stole 10 bases without getting caught once... hes a FA in 2021. So you'd get 3 controlled years out of him. Not sure the cost of him to the rangers.. but I'd love to grab him. He's not going to be a world beater but the kind of swiss army knife you love to have on a team. Play 100 games and can eliminate a bench spot.

That list isn't bias at all hahaha. Assuming all money is equal and the true destinations are Phillies and Dodgers and Sox and .... ? Cubs? Winning would be #1 in my book. As such I'd go Dodgers. Sox decent farm system means zilch. If it did the Twins and Buxton/Sano would be a first place team by now and we'd all be wearing our HOF Joe Borchard jerseys. Dodgers among those teams have proven their ability to spend, win, and do both consistently. Cubs with new ownership and revamped Wrigley are probably the second best bet. Phillies have also shown they'll spend when necessary. The sox come in dead, dead, dead last if you're trying to guarantee winning and spending over the next 10 years (contract length) Now you can make the argument he'd be the MAN on the Sox and own a team in a big market. That's Sox far and away. Good place to play in the summer ........ I'll go with LAD... there's a reason 12,000 fans show up through Memorial Day. Chicago and the AL CEntral is an absolutely brutal place to play in April and May. Minneapolis, Detroit, Cleveland ..... Just playing devil's advocate, but taking away our own Sox fandom --- there's no effing chance on earth I'd play for the Sox if I were him and wanting to win a championship. JR has never proven he'll spend to put a winning team on the books consistently. The weather sucks. The stadium is in the bottom 10. The division is one of the worst in the league for marketability...

What if Machado is the next Heyward.. Harper is a safer bet. Honestly, we've gone the safer route for my whole life. if there's a time to go balls to the wall its now. Also, Harper is a better fit financially regardless of need or future stats. He is a face to the franchise which drives revenue outside of the normal stuff. Reinsdorf is a business man. Even if he flops or just does okay, he brings in more than enough revenue to cover his salary. I think that's one reason JR is so enamored and willing to go for this.

This is like the NFL printing two sets of Super Bowl winning hats, shirts, etc. It costs the Sox what? $2,500 - 10k to print out materials? Why not do it ahead of time if you really are making a half billion dollar investment. If doesn't work you shred them all. Better to be prepared in a business sense. If news breaks you want to be able to flood clients with Harper stuff.

if we haven't made a formal offer I think you can guess how far Harper is from signing. January 15 would be my over under.

I really think it's just because the Addison Russell thing happened here in Chicago and there was more media coverage locally.

I tend to agree with Hahn -- no LONG TERM options. However I do like Keuchel. I can see how people would be lukewarm on him coming off last year and I'm sure people smarter than me have researched spin rates and walk rates etc etc. However I do like that he's not your flame throwing Sale type. A guy like Sale wanting a big contract scares me more than Keuchel to be honest. A groundball guy who isn't a world beater is a nice piece. Now is it a 5year, 100mm piece? Probably not a luxury the Sox can afford. In terms of short term pieces I think you really do spin your tires on Shelby miller and Graveman. Cahill and Bucholz are examples from last year where this approach worked. For that reason alone is why I pass on them this year though -- value went up too much. I'd consider both at the right price but think someone will overpay.

This. I took a ton of heat saying I'd consider Addison Russell. I have a feeling more than a few people who were anti Addison are okay with this move.... which makes zero sense if you're playing the moral game. Either way, my stance is still the same. Do your homework. Build a team with character. I wouldn't exclude anybody because of their past if you truly believe they are trying to make a change and have made a change.

As time goes on this is what I think... A) neither harper or machado are signing this week, but both have a very, very strong idea of where they're going. They probably have 1 and 1A for scenarios. Harper: My guess is that right now the Sox/Phillies have very similar offers out there. Which is higher, who knows. I do honestly think that Harper will come to the Sox if those were just the two options on the table. However what his rush to sign? Yes it's screwing over teams like the Phillies and Sox to wait around -- but that doesn't matter to him. I think he'd be fine taking either of those two offers, and would be a White Sox sometime around the new year. That being said I think he's clearly waiting for the Dodgers or Cubs to make moves to free up cap space and would easily sign with either of those two teams for slightly less money. The fact the Dodgers are so clearly wanting to move pieces around?? Scary. Harper would be close to home. Hollywood. It's a match made in heaven. Odds: Dodgers 60% Cubs 15% White Sox 15% Phillies 10% Machado: Same story basically. I think the Phillies and Sox have the best current offers out there. I truly believe the only other team in the hunt is the Yankees. Again I think the chances are about equal and will come down to whoever puts the most money on the table, but I think Machado is going to wait around to see if the Yankees can make some moves and acquire him. If they're out he'll take the most money on the table. Odds: Yankees 70% White Sox 15% Phillies 15%

rumor talk is the lowest common denominator of communication. The harper thread is like a TMZ message board right now.

Thank god for the Nova news ... this Harper thread over the past three days has been one of the worst threads ever on SoxTalk. No talking about his defense, how to structure the contract, discussion about how his signing would affect future payroll constraints, what his signing would mean for our younger OF prospects, etc. etc. It's just back and forth of broken English discussing pretty poor and vague rumors and saying the same thing over and over. Every post is like 180 characters like twitter or something. Been an incredibly bad thread.

don't think that's how we'd utilize him, but I do wonder with JR historically not paying pitchers if we ever try and implement what the Rays did and what, I think, a lot more MLB teams will do in the future -- the piggyback approach. Seems like a way to limit a SP value -- maybe easier & cheaper to retain pitchers that way.