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Everything posted by he gone.
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I think as an organization, if you have a chance to acquire the best power bat in MLB you do it. Now what is the cost? I'd have to look at his contract and opt outs, but $30mm for him? I think I'd do it. He's young enough - though I feel like a bit injury prone. But as someone said you'd have him during his prime over the next 3-5 years right when the Sox are going for it. Imagine THAT bat at Comiskey... protecting Abreu who is getting on base non stop... All else equal ... if you said I have $300mm to spend on ONE FA or trade? I'd go: Machado Arenado Stanton However the caveat there is that Machado and Arenado are not guarantees ... the hope is that $300mm gets the job done ... but you'll have Philly, SF, NYY, etc. etc. all in play for these guys. I personally take Stanton. Now if they eat $50mm? I'd throw in almost anybody outside our top, top guys. Think about this lineup .... and also think about how quickly this rebuild is almost complete with this scenario... let's just say 2019 Opening Day.. forgive me for the lineup construction ... may be off CF - Rutherford 1B - Abreu DH - Stanton 2B - Moancada LF - Avi Garcia RF - Robert 3B - Burger C - Collins SS - Anderson I mean... have fun getting thru that lineup as a pitcher. Yes that lineup is unorthodox -- at the same time this scenario won't ever happen so who cares... I like putting the best hitters up in the order more. Abreu protected by Stanton who is protected by Moncada (who should be improved)? That's scary.
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Kopech will have a chance to win a rotation spot next spring
he gone. replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Aug 30, 2017 -> 11:27 AM) Makes sense although I don't mind his as a mentor I think its a possibility that it mirrors the John Danks situation, however I think it's more of a possibility that the Sox keep him as a mentor and long relief arm out of the bullpen. The Danks situation was odd because we started 23-10 and we didn't have the room to keep an arm like his on the roster. Next year, unless we start hot? Is probably another year where management sees it as a growth year for the young guys and a season where competing isn't as important as learning, developing, mentoring, losing* for a decent pick. ] Also worth mentioning - he may be better suited for a role out of the bullpen. Pitches 1-30 Shields has 42 ko/18bb Pitches 30-60 he has 28k/25bb That being said the power numbers, the runs , etc. etc. are all about the same... Either way, he's dead as a starter, might as well try him in a different role next year if we don't have the space. Also I'd rather see the likes of Adams, Guerrero, etc. -- basically any young guy over Shields. -
Kopech will have a chance to win a rotation spot next spring
he gone. replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 29, 2017 -> 03:51 PM) I amended it to between 110 and 120 losses unless they do something if they want to improve. I pointed out in the scenario presented the starting rotation would be very good but in this day and age if you went into next season with this bullpen yes they'd lose over 100 games. If the argument is 110 to 120 is too high would u at least agree it's a 105 loss team with this bullpen? As to where the losses come from, I'd suggest they'd pile up in April and continue from there. I guess if the Royals are total s*** and the Tigers total crap the Sox could conceivably go 10-9 or 9-10 against both which would cut into my 110 to 120 losses theory. I'd expect both Minnie and Cleveland to own us. Maybe to the tune of 15-4 or 14-5. I also could see the .500 scenario begin if the Sox as i said in the other post went with the 4 good young starters and add a veteran and also decide to rebuild the bullpen this offseason. Not sure who the lockdown closer is whom they could acquire but they start the bullpen rebuild if they wished. p.s. I maintain "most" fans on this site want our stud young pitchers to be in the minors all next season. It's part of the rebuild mystery. They don't want Giolito, Kopech, even Lopez anywhere near the majors next season. Rodon and four hacks and let the losses pile up. I hate to waste pitches on rodon's arm as well. I hope most of the projected stars all get a fresh start on Day One some April. By then poor Moncada and TA could be frazzled by a lotta losses. Huh? So they'll be 120 loss team. But maybe 110. Possibly 105 loss team. But if they go with the pitchers they are already bringing up (Lopez, Giolito, possibly Kopech + Rodon) and add a bullpen piece then we could be an 80 loss team. You sure you don't want to add in that we could win 90 if we add a nice bat too? It's a very Skip Bayless argument - cover all bases. That way it's a correct argument next year. I guess every board needs someone to stir the pot.. This team is a 65-70 win team this year. 70-75 win team next year And a giant question mark for 2019 based on a ton of factors. -
Kopech will have a chance to win a rotation spot next spring
he gone. replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 29, 2017 -> 03:16 PM) I'm not the first to mention 120 losses on here. And guess what? With this bullpen, it's a 110-120 loss team. I'll take the under. Sox are 12-14 over the last month ... It's very tough to find a 120 loss team as it was mentioned in this thread earlier. We have played almost .500 baseball with no Swarzak, Kanhle, Quintana, Robertson, etc. etc. etc. Also Kanhle, Swarzak, etc. were all finds via FA or small trades. Cooper and the Sox revitalized their careers and flipped them for talent.. you better believe that Hahn and the scouts have been scouring the minors and majors for similar candidates. This team is a 70 win team next year at worst. Hell this year were gonna be a 65-67 win team... I'm not sure where we are worse off next year.... -
Kopech will have a chance to win a rotation spot next spring
he gone. replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I like it. I've said for a while this year that Kopech is the star of that Sale trade. He's the type of talent that could pitch his next start in the majors and he'll still produce. I like the Sox are pushing him and I think he'll respond. I also think he's the type of guy if he does fail, that he'll go back and fix it and succeed. All that being said - I also see this as a motivator more than anything. My guess would be June/July 2018 when he is called up. My guess on Eloy would be next September for a cup of coffee and then back down in 2019 for a few weeks or whatever timeline is necessary for an extra year of control. Next year I can see ending the year rotation with Kopech, Rodon, Lopez, Giolito and ______ -
QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 25, 2017 -> 01:57 PM) Yeah, I was just responding to this: 2: Billy McKinney -- not even in the majors?? People forget how young McKinney is since he has moved twice and hasn't played yet. He's a bit like Gio Gonzalez, probably not as good in majors. This is where online forums get weird cause you can't really express how I'm typing and it's open for interpretation. True I didn't realize he was 23 - but also it was really me going through the Cubs list and going -- I know he was traded last year from them .. wasn't have a good year last year ... and he's not in the majors, right? Not so much not in the majors??? Like I didn't mean he was a bust. I just was like he's not up yet is he? The main takeaway from my posts in a nutshell is this.. we have 30 top ranked prospects right now. If you went through all 30 mlb teams you'd find that most prospects don't pan out to where they are projected to. Some exceed. Some disappoint. But rarely do you find a Kris Bryant or Trout who just keep on producing at each level and never let up. In my opinion we have a few guys like that where I think they'll have success at every level (outside injury) -- Eloy, Kopech, Hansen, Dunning. I think that Yoan, Rutherford, Giolito, Lopez, Cease will underperform against OUR expectations. Now that's not to say they won't contribute. I just think they aren't going to be where fans put them in our own lofty expectations. I'm TBD on Robert - he could be a stud - he could be average - he could be Jorge soler. And then there's the whole other mess of guys ... burger, fulmer, cease, Collins, adolfo, gillaspie, burdi, adams, basabe, stephens, sheets, guerrero, clarkin, skoug, call, bummer, etc. etc. etc. It wouldn't surprise me at all if some of those guys overachieve vs. our top ranked prospects. In the end this team is going to hit on a number of prospects. We've proven to develop pitchers very well. I think fast forward 3 years -- and barring injury that will still be our strength. IMO I'd like to sign a big name FA (Machado, Arenado) at the hot corner. I think you do that and you really minimize the need for a few prospects to hit their ceilings. Again I'm not trying to be negative here... just based on every single team there is going to be a few top 10 prospects that don't make the majors or have a cup of coffee and that's it...so out of .. Moncada, Jimenez, Kopech, Robert, Rutherford, Giolito, Cease, Hansen, Collins, Dunning, Fulmer, Burger ..... ? Who is it? Trust me I'll eat crow all the way to the WS if half these guys pan out to be what theyre supposed to be.
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QUOTE (Knackattack @ Aug 24, 2017 -> 05:22 PM) Is Briananderson Greg? No, I am a realistic fan. We all like to compare ourselves to the Cubs during this rebuild for some reason.. so let's look at their top prospect list ala 2015 1: Gleyber Torres -- traded 2: Billy McKinney -- not even in the majors?? 3: Carl Edwards Jr. - transitioned to 7/8th inning bullpen arm 4: Duane Underwood - Who? 5: Albert Almora: 4 OF/sometimes starter 6: Ian Happ -- playing a role 7: Pierce Johnson --- ?? 8: Donnie DeWees -- ?? 9: Mark Zaguins -- ?? 10: Wilson Contreras -- key player on team 11: Dylan Cease -- now on our team 12: Eddy Martinez -- Not sure 13 Vogelbach -- Seattle minors 14 Eloy --- our top prospect now So you tell me --- is my list realistic? I think so. That list is two years fast forward -- or end of 2019 for us. They have Happ and Contreras as key members. Almora and Edwards as contributing members and Torres and Eloy as key trade guys that netted great players for them. Now I know that list is a bit misleading since 2014 is when they had their cream of the crop... Top ten that year was Kris Bryant, Addison, Almora, Soler, Edwards, Schwarber, McKinney, Pierce Johnson, Volgebach, Caratini Next ten were Candelario, Eloy, Jen Tseng, Torres, Paul Blackburn, Corey Black, Carson Sands, Radenmacher... So all I'm saying is not everybody will slot in how you think they will. Our best player in 2020 might be Rutherford. It might be the 25th ranked guy. It might be someone we draft in the 7th round next year. Don't focus so much on my projections... just focus on the fact that not everybody will be amazing.. How would I rank the Cubs players that were prospects in 2014-15 (not Rizzo since he wasn't apart of their lists) ? Top Tier: Bryant Wilson Contreras Above Average: Addison Russell Ian Happ Carl Edwards Jr. Javy Baez (was tops on earlier lists) Average: Schwarber Almora Rest of the guys? Really nothing. Eloy and Torres turned into great trade chips -- and now one is our top guy. So although I may come off as negative I think I am being realistic. There will be a few guys that are top 10 that won't even make the majors
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I guess maybe we just disagree on what a build around guy is. To me it's the Abreu's, Rizzos of the world. A guy you can count on to consistently come to the plate and perform. Moncada has a real chance to figure it out and be a world beater, just nothing over the past 3 years makes me think it'll happen to extent we are hoping. If you have a core of: Top guys: Abreu 1B/DH Jimenez LF Arenado 3B Abv. Average: Moncada 2B Collins (in regards to others at Catcher -- offense, power, calling game) C Average: Rutherford CF Robert RF Avi DH/LF/RF Play a role on team: Anderson UTIL (SS, 3B, 2B, CF) L. Garcia UTIL (Same) Delmonico DH, 1B, 3B, etc. Basabe All OF defensively Burger - DH/1B Backup catcher Add in our strength of the team - Kopech, Rodon, Hansen, Dunning, Giolito -- bullpen of Cease, Lopez, Fulmer, Burdi, etc. etc. Plus a couple more draft picks? I think the point we are missing as a fan base sometimes is not all your prospects HAVE to hit the expectations we put on them. If just 1 or 2 turn into all stars we are the Astros or Cubs. If we somehow sign a guy - Arenado, Machado, or really solid FA we are in an even better spot (longshot) Right now, these are the tiers I am putting our prospects in. Obviously Robert and Moncada both have the talent according the scouts to be world beaters.. I slot them where they are out my own opinion currently. Also in this situation I'd love to sign or develop or trade for a defensive wizard at SS who can bat .240 and put the ball in play. I'd take up the middle defense over most anything on a future team.
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 21, 2017 -> 02:21 PM) If you do get a chance I'd like you to assess Salvy Perez and Lorenzo Cain and Moustakas and Hosmer for me. Should they be starters? Are they worth a damn? My guess is they will come up lacking. I'd love to see your assessment of the NL all star roster. I'd think most of those guys suck and shouldn't be regulars. I do realize most of the Sox do suck, but I think Delmonico, Avi, the catchers, Moncada, Abreu, yes Davidson are actually not so bad. Perez by the way has 21 homers; Davidson has 22. " I don't know enough about the Royals on a day in and day out basis. But rough overview? I'd say if I'm the Sox I am passing on Cain as he's getting older at age like 31 or 32. He probably can fill a teams needs in the way a Melky does. He has no fit on the Sox or the Royals moving forward. Salvy to Davidson is about as apples to oranges as one can be. Savly is an All-Star catcher. That position doesn't historically produce well so when you get one they are super valuable. how you call a game, your relationships with pitchers, how you catch, frame, etc. Would welcome him on any team. Moose and Hosmer? Hosmer is having a great year. Again this isn't really about other teams. I'd rather be the Royals of 5 years ago and have these guys produce like they are at cheap. When they are becoming FA I think they cost too much compared to what their value is in return. He's a fine player. Not someone I'd want on the Sox at the pricetag hes gonna get. Those are all starters and good players. If the Sox were able to have production out of 4-5 guys like that on their rookie contracts I would be ecstatic. Moose, Hosmer, Salvy were all highly touted guys ... Nicky Delmonico, Yolmer and Saladino and Davidson were not.... The Sox will be more than fine if we have 4-5 of the guys in the minors produce as the royals had ... we can probably pencil in Moncada as a starter. we have Abreu ... now add in 2-4 more and we're cooking. I just don't think the names like Garcia, Sanchez, Davidson, Delmonico are those guys.
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 21, 2017 -> 01:59 PM) I am totally ok with having league average players on my 2019 and 2020 contending teams. A big part of the problem the last 2 years was how many positions the White Sox had filled with guys who were substantially less than league average players, or at least how much they had to spend in money and talent to bring positions up to league average. If Delmonico is a "league average player" in 2020, he would be doing that for pre-arbitration dollars still. Give me a left handed hitting LF who puts up an .800 ish OPS to balance out being pretty weak defensively and that's a league average player and a guy who I'm ok with being on the team. We paid Melky Cabrera like $13 million a year to do that. That's a totally fair point made there and agree with it. However I think a lot of times we as fans get caught up in a few good weeks by a player. Out of all these guys playing right now - we can't have more than 3 of them starting for us in 2020 if we are going for it (not counting catcher - not counting pitching) Abreu .... Avi ... Delmonico if you'd like - I don't have faith in Nicky, but that's fine. I'm fine with finding another few guys to be UTIL players as well ... L. Garcia, Saladino, Anderson I just get upset that sometimes the fan base thinks that a few good weeks out of Davidson or Nicky or Saladino equals their starting 2b or SS or whatever on a contending team.
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 21, 2017 -> 01:56 PM) I know our team truly does suck evidenced by the record, but I find it interesting that the only people we think are any good at all on the Sox are the prospects who've never had an at bat or a pitch in a real MLB game. I'd love to see some assessments of other teams' players. Is anybody acceptable if Jose Abreu is not acceptable? Is anybody acceptable if Avi is not? I'd like to see a list of players on other teams. For instance is Moustakas any good according to Sox fan standards? Is Hosmer? Is Salvy Perez? I know Salvy never walks, not sure about the other guys. Do the Royals (since they are just down the road) have any acceptable players at all by our soxtalk advanced stat standards? I know Escobar must suck in our eyes; Cain must suck in our eyes. Gordon obviously is trash. The advanced stat era isn't very fun cause most players suck. I have Abreu listed as our starting DH and splitting time at 1B when not at DH... I also listed him in the likes of Frank Thomas of guys you build a team around ... And yes, I think Avi is a flash in the pan. It's not a crazy statement if you just flash back to last year when everybody just wanted to cut bait on him. Hopefully something clicked and he's realizing his potential like a JD Martinez did, but I just don't think he has. He still is a hack in the OF with a bullet arm. I'm okay with an Avi in LF OR an Anderson at SS. I just don't want both as part of my starting lineup. If Avi is in my LF then Anderson should be my super UTIL in a perfect situation. I really don't think that these are outlandish takes to be honest. Tim Anderson is hitting .286this month -- average D? if not wild and unpredictable at times? 21 strikeouts, 2 walks... 5hrs. This month he's fine because he's providing power. But what about a bad month? Say July.. when he hit .198 with 22 striekouts, 1 walk and drove in 5rbis? Add in iffy defense and you have a liability on your team. Anderson is too streaky in my eyes with not enough discipline or defense to warrant his down streaks and not enough power to be a game changer or carry a team during his upswings.. That hurts a team that's trying to win it all in 2020. I'd love for him to play 90-100 games -- really ride him when hot and let him work it out on the bench and a few times a week when cold.
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QUOTE (SleepyWhiteSox @ Aug 21, 2017 -> 12:54 PM) No, no, no, no, no. Did you not read his expert analysis?? He's a utility player at best. As is Leury. And Tim Anderson. And Moncada... Nope, if you go read any of my posts on Moncada they've all been the same. This board loves to ride the rollercoaster more than I do (in my mind). I don't buy into media hype or likewise when the media piles on a rough spot. I personally never believed the #1 hype on Moncada. I think Kopech was and will be the best player in that deal. I think Moncada has a solid career ahead of him with the Sox - however I don't think hes a guy you build around. Not Trout, Machado, Frank Thomas, Konerko, etc. I think he'll be a .260/20hr/20sb guy who walks and ko's a lot. I think he'll have a few random seasons where his numbers are really good and he makes ASG's and maybe like 10th in MVP voting. I also think he'll have years like Todd Frazier where he bats .220. So just like this thread on Delomonico? I'm not riding the hype - and when Delmonico is sucking? I won't buy the low. He's a league average player at best. AT BEST. I just don't see him on this team at 2019.
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QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Aug 21, 2017 -> 10:51 AM) I consider myself to be extremely pessimistic but I have to ask...why do you even watch if all it takes is a bad month or 2 for a guy to be completely done? I think those are pretty "realistic" projections. I stand by the post - may be a negative post, but stand by it. Moncada isn't done - never said that. I said he's an above average player. Probably a few ASG, maybe 1 or 2 low end fringe MVP top 10 seasons. But he's not a build around star. We can continue to make excuses for him, and I can be wrong on the exact stats - but he hasn't hit above .300 above A ball if I'm not mistaken. He oozes talent but I think will struggle to be a FRank Thomas, Konerko, Abreu type player. I think he fills in as a good starter though. I know that with the hoopla surrounding him that people WANT to believe in more, I just don't think itll happen. And that's not based 100 MLB at bats. That's based on minor league stats mostly. And yes, I'm just behind a computer and never watched him live in A, AA or AAA, but I think there is something to be said that he didn't adjust all that well at lower levels of competition. The rest of the guys? I'd guess the next most "out there" comment was the Anderson one. Hey, I like him as a competitor and person. But you can only stack so many strikeout guys in one lineup and still be good. I know the game is moving towards all or nothing currently, but Anderson doesn't have enough ALL to make up for his nothing. He needs more power, speed, defense, etc. to make up for that. Again he can be your 7-9 guy, but that's about it. I think were a better team with him in a Javy Baez, Zobrist type role. Where he gest a bunch of games, but isn't a starter unless when he's on a hot streak. Just my opinion. The rest of the guys? Delmonicos, Garcias, Sanchez, Davidsons? If you can find one to stick on the bench and maybe one to fill a role for 2020 ONLY? That's a win. I don't think that's too pessimistic at all.
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Didn't really spend time reading the responses - but no chance in hell Nicky Delmonico is a contributing member of this team in 2020. Every year there is someone new we think could be a player that sticks around on this board.. Last year it was Saladino and how he just had the "it" factor and knew how to play the game right. How he could play 3B for 3 seasons+ or be a starter on the diamond. Saladino is just another 2-3 year UTIL player and will be gone soon. Same with Yolmer. There were positives earlier in the year and it got thrown around that HE could be the solution at UTIL. He is no better, actually probably worse than Saladino in my opinion. Players than have a chance to contribute into 2020 currently on Sox: Abreu - DH with some time (60) game at 1B Moncada - temper expectations. #1 prospect means nothing now that he'll never be on that list again. He's just a former #1. He's going to be a slightly above average player with the chance to have a few really good years. Anderson - Super UTIL - SS, 2B, 3B, CF - I give him next year to prove himself. Hopefully we wont need him as our starting SS. He's a guy who should play 90-100 games a year in UTIL role Hansen - this is my hail mary. Let him play a lot next year. If it clicks? Good. I think he can play the super UTIL role then as well. For those of you who think this is crazy - he was a more highly touted prospect than the above Anderson. I'd be hard pressed to say in a full year that either is much better than the other. Leury - Same - can fight for the super UTIL role. Rodon - #2 or 3 N. Jones - set up man if not dealt That's it in my mind. Players who won't be on team or shouldn't be... Avi - sorry. Don't want him. don't need him. He can be our 7-9 type of player, but don't want him as a key to our success. Davidson - please don't tell me how MLB is an all or nothing league - he's a nothing. 35HRS a year doesn't mean s*** if you strikeout 35% of time Delmonico - Nope.
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Agree with the last few posts. I really don't subscribe to the "brought up too soon" lines. For the most part I think those who are going to succeed do so regardless. Those who fail, will fail. Now there are exceptions - I think a Giolito actually does need time in the minors. Let him adjust when it doesn't matter with the Sox and with the best coaches and best talent around him.
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I am going to try and give a level headed opinion here - maybe some will disagree but I think there is value to what I am saying. First, there are always rankings that anoint someone the next #1 prospect - when one of those guys is on your team you instantly have HUGE expectations of said player. If you look to the past lists, not all are correct. A lot of times the #40 prospect goes on to have the best career. So let's put the rankings to the side for a bit. To me Moncada obviously has all the tools that are necessary to become a top 20 player in baseball. However he's not there yet and I also think he will never get there without a different approach at the plate. Don't quote me on this, but I believe he's never hit above .300 above A level ball. He was able to put up some real nice numbers still outside that though in the minors - but that's the minors. You can have a selective eye down there and take walks and steal bases on catchers who aren't MLB level. My worry with Moncada is that he sits and watches too many pitches. It's nice to see patience but he needs to mix in some aggressive at bats. Now what do I think he'll be in the future? I personally think Kopech was the star of the deal - and I've felt like that from day 1. I think that Moncada is more likely to be an Adam Dunn, Starlin Castro, Javy Baez, Buxton type player than he will be a Machado, Harper, Trout type of guy who is a MVP candidate every year. That's not terrible though, those guys are all-stars on good seasons, above average players, but they aren't the guy you build around. Now all of this is subject to change if he gets the right player or coach in his ear and it all clicks. People can you can't judge from the first 100AB's at age 22. Well I disagree ..... You can't judge his whole career from it, but you can certainly draw some conclusion. 22 is young.. I get it... but SUPERSTARS don't go through this rough of periods. He's not a superstar and I don't think he ever will be. I think he's a guy who makes 2 or 3 All Star Games and contributes as a nice piece on a good team and has a season or two where he can be a fringy MVP candidate. I am calling him a George Springer at best .... and more of Starlin Castro type (with walks) ....
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That was a well put together post. I agree with most of it. Very realistic too. I think Tilson will get his shot. I also think Gilaspie will get his shot too. Asche had his. I think they like Willy Garcia a decent amount too. I can see them trying to hit on a few washed up former 1st or 2nd round picks. We have the luxury of tryin got hit gold while we suck, so I see Hahn pursuing that route this summer
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I didn't realize Arenado is available the next year .... I too actually might prefer Arenado over Machado. I really think the most realistic way we sign any of these guys (Machado, Arenado, Harper) is giving a ridiculously front loaded contract with an opt out. We give them 3-4 years at something like $45mm a year. It pays them handsomely, but also lets them opt out at age 29-30 again for one last 8 year mega contract. This works well for Machado and Harper who are younger.. not sure Arenado would go for such a deal. In that plan we get 3-4 years of a superstar that corresponds with our biggest push for a world series. The hope would be they cash in and then 3-4 years later they opt out so they can get another long term mega contract.
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If I am a contending team I'd want someone like Melky for sure. He's a pro, is consistent, has a good arm, and can be had for cheap. Sadly it won't be good for us.
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Let me start this off with - I am just posting this because we are all currently still in the dreaming process where everybody we acquired turns into everyday players that make the ASG. Moncada is Cano and Kopech is Sale and Jimenez is Stanton and Robert is a stud, etc. I know it's very likely that some of these guys turn into Byron Buxton and some turn into Carson Fulmer. But while dreaming... What would it take to get a Harper or Machado - and I'm not talking contract $$ wise. That's $400-500mm. And who would you prefer and why? The Sox have never made a commitment bigger than Abreu, so the chances of giving a contract 8X that amount? I'd think it's a moonshot. But Hahn did mention probably having to supplement via FA moving forward as the next step in the plan... So for me, I'd think it'd have to be something like this: - Sox prospects all are hitting on their ceilings - AKA Moncada, Robert, Rutherford, etc. etc. etc. all are living up to their lofty expectations kind of like the Cubs where things really came into place a year early. So next year 2018 those guys come up and produce and we finish near .500 - I think season ticket plans and prices would have to be locked in and up crazy amount - I think that JReinsdorf would have to be committed to selling the team at a peak. Acquiring a superstar, having a team that is winning like crazy, in the middle of a Chicago baseball renaissance, and then cashing out To answer my other question - I'd rather have Machado. Give me a SS/3B with defense over OF. I'd also put the percentage of this at 5-10% tops. Yankees will nab one of the guys and then the pirahnas of the Cubs, Giants, BoSox, Dodgers, Phillies will swarm on the other. The only way I see getting it done is something creative with a opt-out. Like 7 years, $275mm but front loading the first 3 years at say like $50mm and then the opt out at age 29. You get Machado in his prime years when the team has its best window to compete and then he cashes in on his next deal. Again - this is my dreaming phase now - reality hits when Moncada is striking out at 33% and cant hit a lefty.
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QUOTE (South Side Fireworks Man @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 08:56 AM) The Sox never seem to value defense enough. One of the reasons for their lack of success over the years. I do agree with this to a point. I hate being the guy who complains - (Tatis Jr.!!) - but I feel like Hahn is loading up on some very power heavy, low defense guys. Eloy is supposed to have an arm, but be slow and not a great fielder - so maybe LF. Maybe an Avi/Melky defense is what I envision. Anderson is rangy but have seen his troubles his whole career minus last year. Moncada I hear is suspect Abreu will probably be gone or a DH so that's fine. Burger already has questions - so is he our 1B? if 3B that kind of scares me. Rutherford I think is supposed to be rangy with a weaker arm - so maybe a case where he is average like Eaton in CF but really good in RF? Robert - hard to project as he's still growing but probably a better corner OF Collins - his knock was D but has been proving ppl wrong. Don't know how he calls a game though. They always say the best teams have talent up the middle - SS, 2B, CF, C .... The positives I guess are the arms we are acquiring are generally high power guys. Kopech, Lopez, Gio - those are all KO guys. Not many Buehrle types in our system. Who knows though. Like always there will be someone who surprises, someone will turn into Jorge Soler, etc.
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QUOTE (daggins @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 11:21 PM) So going from one bandbox to another. He clearly has work to do but lets not pretend he doesn't have the talent to do it at the highest level. THIS. You either got it our you don't. (think that's from a curb episode even if I butchered the exact wording) He has flaws. We all have heard about them, but just like Buxton, there's not much to prove in AAA anymore. Buxton was the #1 for how many years? I think Moncada is kind of the same as him - he probably has the tools to be the best prospect, but hasn't put it all together. What else doyou wait for though? I'd like to see him improve too, but a lineup of Sanchez, Saladino, Hansen, etc. doesn't do anything for me. Those guys are UTIL at best. Let Moncada take his licks with no pressure, learn from new MLB coaches. You never know when something clicks with a new coach. For example look at Kanhle. I believe the same for Lopez right now too. And Fulmer. I think that Lopez could benefit from Cooper instead of AAA coaching. Fulmer as well. Fulmer is a high makeup guy. He's a competitor. I don't think he's going to fail because we borught him up too early to learn in the majors. Other hand? I think Giolito could use some seasoning. Let him clear his head. He to me, is more the basket case that you ruin by rushing.
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QUOTE (KnightsOnMintSt @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 10:36 AM) With so many good pitching prospects, we are bound to have some guys in the bullpen. Where do we think they end up? Here is what I think... Kopech- Starter Giolito- Long Reliever Lopez- Starter Fulmer- Reliever Cease- Reliever Hansen- Starter Dunning- Reliever Adams- Reliever Stephens- Starter I like the topics you've started over the past few days. Don't make it over this way to the prospect board as much as I'd like but I do like the discussion. At this point my guesses are: Kopech - starter Giolito - starter - I know a lot have been down on him but I think he's the classic case of a Liriano or Gavin Floyd type. A guy who has the stuff and snaps in and out of it a lot. Hot and cold stretches. Very sensitive to whos catching him, home/away splits, etc. etc. Lopez - Starter Fulmer - I think the experiment will end as a starter by next year - reliever Cease - TBD - don't know a lot about him Hansen - Just by sheer numbers wise I'd think reliever but who knows Dunning - For sure starter The last two I don't know enough about to give an opinion Another thing to think about it is injuries (Burdi) that are inevitable, DL trips, and trades. I always go back to the Rays as my example. They have 2-3 pitchers ready to fill their rotation spots if and when Archer is eventually traded. I like that model as a lower market team. We're never going to spend with the big guys - we're the Brewers, Rays, A's type team with the ability to top out as like a Twins, Cardinals type budget if all pieces fall into place.
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My list is contributions to the Sox over the next 2-5 years, not their entire careers as I don't think many will be lifers here. Kopech - he's got the special sauce. sale type of talent if he can figure out his walks. if he does that will be a top in baseball. even without learning that he's got the ability to work out of jams with his stuff. potential to be a top 10 pitcher, regardless should be our 1/2 in the next few years. Moncada - he's a game changer. he'll strikeout but he'll also walk and steal bases and put the ball in play. we get him when his legs matter too. Jimenez - everybody seems to be high on him but honeslty don't know enough about him. may be the best of the bunch- im just not very educated Dunning - think he has the best chance of being a Quintana type. Just get the work done, not overpowering, but solid. kyle Hendricks, Q type Lopez - I like him a lot, think he's pretty much on the same path as Rodon - can be a 2/3 type guy but needs to control Giolito - don't think he'll ever be an ace, but gavin Floyd is probably a good comparision Robert - have a feeling he's soler 2.0 Cease - if he sticks as a starter then he may climb Basabe - should be a solid 4 OF for a few years at the very least Not as high on Robert as everybody else yet. let him prove himself a bit and then maybe I will be - but for now I remember the hype on people like Jorge Soler.
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I picked 2019. Unlike most posters you actually took the conservative route with these pitchers/batters. I feel like Giolito will be up in 2018 and probably even this year. Kopech as well. The key to me will be a FA to bolster the team. The downside thus far are the Basabe's, Collins, Call, etc. etc really haven't been lighting the world on fire. Hopefully some of them find stride but right now it's the pitching that has me most excited. For some reason we really know how to churn out guys and I think that Cease can probably be added to that list. Hopefully in a few years we're in a situation like the Rays are now where they have excess pitching in De Leon, Faria, Snell and Honeywell sitting and waiting to be called up while they have Archer, Odorizzi, etc. etc. pitching in the majors. They are at a point where this offseason (probably not mid season since they're playing well), but this offseason they can trade Archer for some nice bats and be a real force. Hopefully that's us with Rodon in a few years.