Timmy U

Elijah Tatis?

Here's what I think everything goes wrong is: Colome is 2nd half Colome all season, Herrera is still bad, Marshall and Cordero face serious regression, Giolito regresses, Anderson's batted ball luck evaporates, Robert is not ready, he hits for a low average with a lot of strikeouts, Keuchel's ERA matches his FIP, Cease and Lopez do not improve, Madrigal is at the low end of his projection sub .700 OPS, and Mazara does not improve, and at least one injury for Moncada or Eloy. Even with good seasons from Abreu, Grandal, Eloy, and Moncada, that team wins 75 games in a tough AL. Now, I don't think all that's going to happen, but it's all plausible. Now reverse it: Robert's an immediate impact player, Giolito is an all star, Kopech and Cease pitch close to their talent, Herrera is the guy he was last September, Mazara improves, Madrigal's closer to the higher end of his projections, Anderson's batted ball profile is a semi-permanent skill, Keuchel is rejuvenated... well, that could be a 95 win team. Lot of variables for the Sox. Maybe harder to predict than any team in the past several years.

I think the Sox have a huge cone of uncertainty. Right now, I would say around 85 wins. If everything goes right, I could see them winning as many as 95, but if everything goes wrong, I could see them winning as few as 75, especially considering how deep the league is. However it turns out, it should be exciting.

Mariners signed him to a one year deal like 3 weeks ago.

Kopech’s control is hard to predict. Generally, that’s the last thing to come back after TJS, but he’s 18 months out from surgery. By his own admission, he had a small case of the yips in the first half of 2018, after that his control was quite good. If I were betting, I would take 2020 Kopech command/control over 2020 Cease.

You mean the Bob Dylan song, right?

It is possible they decide to send Mendick down instead, I suppose, but I doubt it.

Herrera looked good the last month, maybe he bounces back. I am wary about throwing a lot of money at free agent relievers. I think you bring a lot of arms into camp and let them sort it out. Their best set up men last year were people no one saw coming like Bummer, Marshall, and Jimmy Cordero. Herrera was the big free agent. I could see Burdi, Hamilton, Guerrero, Foster, and non-roster guys fighting it out with Covey and Fulmer for the last spot in the bullpen. You gotta figure a lot of guys are going to rotate, so depth is more important to me than one “name” reliever.

I for sure believe they are doing this because they do everything I am against. Sox lineup hard to create because they have like 2 high OBP guys. I would go against right handed pitching: 1. Moncada 2. Eloy 3. Abreu 4. Grandal 5. EE 6. Anderson 7. Mazara 8. Robert 9. Madrigal.

Nah, see Padres, San Diego. Of course, they didn’t pay $26 mil for Tatis Jr. We paid them to take him off our hands.

I have always said that the low mlb outcome for Madrigal is Darwin Barney

Not a fan of Keuchel and I fear he has late period James Shields potential. I don’t think the 2022 squad is going to benefit by his presence. That said, probably makes them better this year.

To get the year back, you’re talking a third of the season. 10 starts probably. Now maybe he shows up in spring and has no command, fine, send him down. But if he is one of your best 5 and you send him down over service time, then do what you need to do, but don’t tell me you are doing all you can to compete.

That is $6 mil exactly. You nailed it!

I am willing to accept the games they’re playing with Robert. It’s only 15 games. The Kopech plan is b.s. He had surgery on September 19, 2018. Rodon had surgery almost exactly 8 months later, yet Rodion is going to be ready by August 1 and Kopech has to stay down until June 1? It does not compute. He still is going to throw pitches in AAA. Those still count. They just value service time more than winning this season. Maybe they’re right to do so, I just don’t like them lying about it.

Those are not competitive reasons, they’re financial ones. I do understand why they are doing it, but you can’t argue it improves this year’s win total.

Okay, I’ll play: if they are hell-bent on competing this year, how come Kopech, Robert, and Madrigal are all starting in the minors? And we know that before Soxfest. If they compete, it’s a bonus. To them, it’s the final year of the rebuild.

I know it is sacrilege to say it, but Bo Jackson.

Hopefully, he’s replacing the Covey/Detwiler/Santiago innings and not Nova. The post-Rodon-injury 5th starter was such a black hole that anyone is an improvement and Gio figures to be a significant improvement. Be interesting to see if they get anyone else or roll with Covey/Detwiler until Kopech is miraculously “ready” on June 1.

I actually think this is a decent depth signing. He has potential and cost essentially nothing.

Well, I think we know who is going to be taking Kopech’s spot for the first two months of the season.

I also don't want to watch 2 years of Collin McHugh or Julio Tehran, etc. We simply disagree on the strategy. Holding Kopech down to claw back the year is tantamount to admitting that you're not fully competing in 2020. I don't prefer that.

Ugh. Is two months of Dylan Covey worth the extra year of control for Kopech? While I detest the practice with position players, I get it. With pitchers, you're going to use some of the bullets in Kopech's arm in Charlotte on the chance that he'll be healthy and effective in 2026? That's not a sure thing by any means.

Here’s my thought: you have to spend money one way or the other. Either spend it on the front side on somebody way better than Julio Teheran or spend it on the back end by giving it to Kopech. Remember, clawing back his service time has him down until June. I can’t imagine watching any 2 of the guys you mention for two months when I know I have Kopech. At a certain point, you do have to pretend you are being competitive for the sake of the other players.

To me, what’s likely now is a full year of Kopech. If you are trying to claw back a year of service time, it is way easier to justify that in a “competitive” year when you have a Wheeler than when you have Dylan Covey or whatever. With Rodon coming back, if Kopech reaches his innings limit, you can just shut him down. Hard to imagine that, breaking camp, the Sox will have 5 better starters than Michael Kopech.