VAfan

I believe the plan for RF is Cespedes, the Cuban they just signed. Eaton is the bridge. Colas might also be in the mix if they are able to sign him during the next window.

$250M is over 10 years, or $25M a year. Machado was signed in 2019, so it would have been a total of $50M so far. Every signing is spread out. So, yes, you can absolutely look at spending on Grandal, Keuchel, Abreu, Encarnacion, etc. As structured now, with so many young guys locked up, the Sox payroll will increase by $70M in 2024-25 just for Anderson, Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, and Giolito's arbitration numbers, even if they aren't able to extend Giolito. Now some guys will come off the books by then - Grandal, Keuchel, and Abreu. But there will be other additions to fill holes, and other guys whose costs will increase. The point is, the Sox are spending the money, and will be spending more money in coming years to keep this contention window open.

It's time for the Sox to play Vaughn and Collins. Every player has to get their start sometime. Vaughn would have been better than EE LAST year. There's no reason to keep him down again, even for Nelson Cruz, who is a) too expensive, b) possibly a roider, c) 41, and d) unable to field a position. Collins has done everything asked of him in AAA. We aren't asking him to catch 160 games. He can catch 40 games, and DH until Vaughn arrives and then blend with Vaughn while he gets up to speed. We want another lefty bat. Well there is Zack Collins staring us all in the face. Why not recognize that he's already in the room? Also, someone above posted that Vaughn might hit 7th, followed by Eaton and Madrigal. If that's what Tony decides, okay. If it were me, I'd hit Roberts 7th, and Vaughn/Collins 6th, for two reasons. Vaughn and Collins will have likely have higher OBP than Robert, for him to drive them in with HRs. And Robert has the speed to steal and score on Eaton/Madrigal singles. Add in Anderson and it puts all the Sox speed together in the lineup with no one in between them to clog the bases. Lastly, I don't carry water for anyone. I'm just a fan of the Sox, and I'm back on this board because I'm excited about the team. If my team sucks, I don't gravitate to fan blogs to complain. I just do something else. But when my team is good and exciting, I like to write about it.

I don't agree with those projections. They've already been wrong once about Tim Anderson, as they predicted he would fall off this year and all he did was get better. For TA, you can't run algorithms. You have to look at the player. He's still just scratching the surface. As for Abreu, I expect a drop off, but not by 40 points. The thing about Abreu is that until 2020, he had no cover, and he was playing on a bad team. Give him a pennant race and a deep lineup, and opponents can't focus all their energy just on stopping him. The pitcher is worn out trying to get through our lineup and Jose is there to pounce on his mistakes. And in a pennant race, Jose is jacked up more consistently. Keuchel will also not match his 1.99 ERA, but he only needs to stay in the 3s with our offense and bullpen, which is what he's done since 2014 with one off year in 2016. In other words, the key for Keuchel is more about innings than ERA. He just needs to stay healthy.

Somehow my original post from Feb 1 got tacked onto this post, even though it was 1000x more comprehensive. I wondered what happened to it, and thought I had deleted it by accident. So I wrote another post with the same theme, but going about it a different way, and it also didn't get posted as it's own thread but got tacked into this one. I guess that's better than having them both deleted. But by doing it this way, I'm not sure many people have read it, because the post they got moved into was only a sentence.

Let's take a look at where the Sox could be better/worse this year. Here's my ranking based on the difference between the 2021 player/coach and the 2020 version they are replacing. I've included expected improvements from existing Sox players. BETTER 1. Lance Lynn over Dane Dunning. Dunning had a nice 2020, but even if he'd returned, he wouldn't be the workhorse Lynn will be. 2. Ethan Katz over Don Cooper. This is speculative until we see what Katz can actually do with our young pitchers. The ranking is based mostly on how he helped transform Lucas Giolito, and how many pitchers he might help. 3. Tony LaRussa over Rick Renteria. I'm guessing this may receive the most ridicule, but count me among those who think a HOF manager who will soon have the most wins for a manager in the integrated years of baseball, with 6 Pennants and 3 World Series titles with an AL and an NL franchise, 4 time Manager of the Year and voted in the top five 12 other times, among many other achievements, will do a better job, especially in tight regular season and postseason games than Rick Renteria. 4. Yoan Moncada v 2020 Yoan Moncada. Of the players who may improve this year, you have to put Moncada on the top of the list. In 2019, he had a .915 OPS, 140 OPS+, 4.8 WAR. In 2020, and that probably wasn't his ceiling. This dropped to .705, 94, and 0.7. I hope/expect him to get back to his 2019 ways. 5. Luis Robert v. 2020 Luis Robert. Robert wasn't bad overall in 2020, but he had a horrible stretch in Sept/Oct, going from a 1.015 OPS in August to a .409 OPS in Sept/Oct. He finished at .738 OPS for the year. Expect him to start to figure it out and push that OPS up into the .800-900 range. 6. Dylan Cease over 2020 Dylan Cease. I think Katz will work some magic on Cease and get him to start to realize his potential. 7. Michael Kopech over whomever was at the back end of our rotation. Whenever Kopech comes up, he will be much better than the many pitchers we used last year at the back of our rotation. It's just a matter of time until he's competing for the TOR. 8. Liam Hendriks over Alex Colome. Colome doesn't rank among the top relievers in the game, and wasn't valued enough by clubs to get more than the modest contract he signed with Minnesota. He was excellent at converting saves, however. But Hendriks is seen as the best reliever in baseball at the moment, and should be more reliable in high-pressure playoff games. 9. Andrew Vaughn over Edwin Encarnacion. EE fell off a cliff last year, with a .627 OPS and 70 OPS+. He hit only .157. Andrew Vaughn is going to easily eclipse those numbers even if he has a few rough patches as a rookie. 10. Adam Eaton over Nomar Mazara. Eaton had a bad 2020, just like Mazara. But it was still better than Mazara's dreadful .589 OPS and 64 OPS+. 11. Aaron Bummer v. 2020 Aaron Bummer. He just needs to stay healthy to vastly improve on last year. 12. Garrett Crochet v. 2020 Garrett Crochet. The Sox current plan is to use him in the bullpen in multi-inning roles to prep him for starting in 2022. If he stays healthy, he'll improve the bullpen no matter how he's used. 13. Eloy Jimenez v. 2020 Eloy Jimenez. Eloy had an excellent year. But he didn't hit the most HRs on the team like he said he would. He may in 2021. 14. Carlos Rodon v. 2020 Carlos Rodon. We don't really know what we might get out of Rodon, but anything would be better than what he gave last year. If he pitches like he did in 2018 or before, his improvement would likely rank higher on this list. 15. Reynaldo Lopez v. 2020 Reynaldo Lopez. As with Rodon, Lopez doesn't have to do much to improve on his 2020 season. At the moment, he looks to be starter depth rather than having a spot in the rotation. Another Katz project. 16. Tim Anderson v. 2020 Tim Anderson. As great as he has been, I don't think TA has reached his ceiling yet. 17. Adding Jerry Narron as catchers coach. To speed the development of Zack Collins and others, the Sox added a new specialty coach who has helped other catchers. The Sox also added an analytics person, which may end up being a positive, but will never be something one can evaluate. WORSE 1. Zack Collins v. James McCann. This will be the biggest drop off on the team. But the Sox need to give Collins ABs to let him develop and see what they have. 2. Jose Abreu v. 2020 Jose Abreu. Abreu will remain great, but hard to see him repeating his MVP numbers. 3. Dallas Keuchel v. 2020 Dallas Keuchel. He's not going to post another sub-2 ERA. UNRATED There are other players you could rank on the better or worse scale, but I didn't. These include Yasmani Grandal, Nick Madrigal, Adam Engel, Leury Garcia, Danny Mendick, Lucas Giolito, Cody Heuer, Evan Marshall, Jimmy Cordero, Zack Burdi, Matt Foster, and Jace Fry. I would put letting go of Gio Gonzalez and Steve Cishek in the plus category but there is no 1-to-1 replacement. OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSION This may seem to be an overly optimistic and rosy analysis. It is certainly optimistic and rosy. The question is whether it is "overly" so. Injuries could certainly derail some of these projected improvements. But for the players who stay healthy, I think the improvements I've ranked here can be reasonably expected, with some more significant than others. According to my rosy expectations, the Sox will improve at Manager Pitching coach Catching instruction SS 3B LF CF RF DH 3 starting pitching slots, and 1-2 depth starter slota Closer Top lefty set-up man Second lefty who throws 100 mph Meanwhile, I only expect them to drop off at: Backup catcher 1B 1 starting pitching slot When looking at the offseason, analysts tend to just focus on the new players. But the White Sox are loaded with young developing talent that hasn't reached its prime, and that's where their biggest improvements are likely to be seen. For example, I ranked the addition of Lance Lynn #!, but the Sox' most expensive signing - Liam Hendriks, only #8, because we had a good closer, with the Eaton signing at #10, and Rodon deal at #14. If those were the only changes from 2020, the Sox would not be the contenders many of us expect. It's the additions of Kopech and Vaughn, the new coaches, and expected improvements from lots of existing players that will make a much bigger impact.

To answer the question - NO, we did not "go cheapnot signing another bat." Any "bat" we signed would just take ABs away from Collins and Vaughn, who need ABs to realize their potential. We have a very deep lineup that was second in the AL last year despite getting very little from Encarnacion and Mazara, a Covid-weakened Moncada, and Luis Robert's rookie ups and downs. Vaughn should provide more than Encarnacion, and we have enough players to tide us over for a month before he comes up after the service time delay. Eaton will hit better than Mazara and platoon well with Engel. Moncada should rebound. Robert will hit much better in his second year. Eloy is still getting better, as is Tim Anderson. The Sox are going to crush the ball. And think we'll run more to put put pressure on pitchers. If the bottom of the order is Robert, Eaton/Engel and Madrigal, with Anderson the 4th guy, that's a lot of speed and the ability to hit and run. And, if anything happens, players can be added during the season. You aren't locked into your roster on opening day. For the same reason, we didn't need a Quintana or another mediocre starter who would just get in the way of the development of Cease and Kopech. Rodon may finally work out and provide decent back of the rotation production while Kopech gets ready. We've got other guys to fill in if needed, much like Dunning did last year. That's a much better approach than just buying marginal vets. We did that last year with EE and Gio and those were wastes of money.

You don't sign Cruz because Vaughn is the guy this year, just like Robert and Madrigal were last year. You don't sign the 1 year pitcher to block Kopech. When you have young studs, you bring them up.

I agree the contention window opened in 2020, and the Sox spent on major free agents - Grandal, Keuchel, Encarnacion - that they hadn't before, and committed much more to extend Jose Abreu than most fans thought wise. They also locked up two cornerstones in Robert and Moncada. This year they added Lynn. It's a one-year deal but gives them an inside track on extending him if it makes sense. They added Hendriks for several years. Eaton, meanwhile, is just a bridge player. But they are also bringing up Vaughn and Kopech and giving Collins a chance as backup catcher. The payroll is going to grow considerably as all the young guys move gain experience, and as their contracts call for. Take any of the studs they have on long term deals. Moncada - 2021 $6.8M, 2025 $25M Robert - 2021 $3.5M, 2025 $15M Jimenez - 2021 $4.3M, 2025 $16.5M Anderson - 2021 $7.25M, 2024 $14M Just for these 4 guys, 2021 $21.85M, 2025 $70M (fudging b/c Tim Anderson signed only through 2024). Add in potentially doing something about Giolito, who only receives 4.15M in 2021 and you have the potential to increase payroll with just 5 guys by $70M. If looked at this way, you can see why the Sox weren't in on Springer or Bauer, especially on long term contracts. They have been willing to supplement the core with short term free agents - 3-4 years tops - who they desperately have to replace with younger players in their cost-controlled years. So Lynn and Keuchel are bridges to Cease and Kopech and Crochet becoming TOR starters. Eaton is a bridge to Cespedes and/or Colas (if we sign him). It's hard to believe Collins will ever be a front line catcher, but he has 3 years to learn under Grandal before the Sox have to decide. Vaughn will eventually take over for Abreu. We all think the Sox are a major market team and should act like one. But we all know the Sox play second fiddle to the Cubs financially, even when the Cubs are bad and the Sox are good. Chicago is likely never going to become a Sox town. Though another World Series title would help. So I don't fault the team for it's approach. They have financial limits. I might not like them, but I can understand them. I don't think they are just cheaping out. I just want them to spend the money they have wisely, and to develop the players they have to play their best, and to win games with good management. I'm excited about the prospects for this team and think we have a shot. I think we'll win the division by several games and are set up well for playoff baseball. But that's another post.

So far, the Sox have not taken a risk on a 9 figure contract. I'm not sure you can conclude from that that they never will. I mean, the Sox haven't had a team worthy of that kind of commitment to put them "over the top" since their 2005 WS team. They've only won 90 games once in that span, and it was 2006. I actually think Lucas Giolito could be the test case because the Sox should be contenders for the next 3 years with this roster.

Maybe my post wasn't clear. I am not advocating trading Giolito this year or next year. But in 2022, if the Sox can't extend him, I guarantee that will be one of the top debates on this board.

Back in February 2019, right after the White Sox lost the Manny Machado sweepstakes, Rick Hahn gave the following quote: "The money will be spent. It might not be spent this offseason, but it will be spent at some point. This isn’t money sitting around waiting to just accumulate interest. It’s money trying to be deployed to put us in best position to win some championships." Here's a link to the article I pulled this from. Manny Machado' contract called for him to get $300M over 10 years. That was Feb 2019. Now the Sox didn't commit to $300M, which is part of the reason they lost. Their offer was speculated at around $250M. So let's use that latter number to assess whether Hahn has in fact spent that money. In 2019, the Sox had an active payroll of just over $70M. (All numbers from Spotrac.) In 2020, their active payroll was $107M. In 2021, it is $117M. I'm leaving out several spending categories from these numbers -- Injured list, reserve/exempt, retained salaries, player pool, and signing bonuses. So, if you compare just that number, the Sox went from $70M up to $107M in the first year after they lost on Machado. That's a $37M increase. What did they spend that money on? Yasmani Grandal: $18.25M/year Dallas Keuchel: $18M/year Jose Abreu extension: approx $18M average for 3 years Luis Robert contract Yoan Moncada extension Edwin Encarnacion: $13M Gio Gonzalez: $4.5M Nomar Mazara: $5.5M Aaron Bummer 5-year extension with 2 club options at $7.5M each Lance Lynn: $8M for 2021 Liam Hendriks: 4 years, $54M Adam Eaton: $8M avg for 2 years Attempt at signing Zack Wheeler, who took the Phillies offer of $23M/year. Signed Keuchel and Gonzalez instead for about the same amount. If you look at these numbers, I would think it would be pretty easy for Rick Hahn to defend the comment he made in February 2019. The Sox active payroll is $47M higher than it was when he said that, and with built in escalators for all the players they have locked up long term, or who will enter arbitration over the next several years, that number is just going to go higher during this window of Sox contention whether or not they add more free agents. See my 3-5 year window post here. I know we all want the Sox to spend more. Me included. But, in fairness to Rick Hahn, I don't think he was lying to the fans. I think the plan all along has been to spend about what they've spent while trying to put the best club on the field that they can for that money. I think they've done better at that this year than last year, when they wasted money on EE, while Gio and Mazara were busts.

The biggest question for the Sox that is upcoming is whether they are going to extend Lucas Giolito. This would be the year to do it. But with the CBA between players and owners up for renewal, and Giolito perhaps wanting to test free agency to maximize his earnings, it could be very hard to do. If the Sox are going to lose Giolito to free agency, they will have to consider trading him, which means after the 2022 season, to get any return.

If it had only been the Oakland game, it wouldn't have been as clear about Renteria. But it was also the 4 game series with Cleveland, when we lost all 4 games. One game we had a 2 run 10th inning lead and gave up 4 to lose, capped off by a 3-run HR off Jose Ruiz!! WTF was Jose Ruiz doing pitching to Ramirez? Another game we lost in the bottom of the 9th with Gio Gonzalez in relief. A 3rd game we gave up a 3 run late inning lead because he used Carlos Rodon. With that Rodon meltdown, why he put him in for Cody Heuer against Oakland only to see him largely blow that game is beyond me. But those were fireable offenses.

I think the idea of trading some talented players over time to gain young guys who can form the next core is a really intriguing one. The Sox have done that better than they have drafted. So that would seem to be a necessary part of the talent acquisition mix. Drafting alone and international signings, plus free agency, cannot likely sustain this, especially since with success the Sox will no longer be drafting near the top. I would also add that it makes no sense to spend much money on what I've called "dubious veterans" who cost a lot but just block talented players that need to develop - Vaughn, Kopech and Collins being the 3 guys who need to play this year. Signing Jose Quintana would be an example of that. If you are going to add a veteran, it needs to be someone who is talented enough to make a difference, like Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel, or Yasmani Grandal, or the extension of Jose Abreu, or the closer Liam Hendriks, who makes the rest of the bullpen better. The Sox have clearly arrived at their contention window. Development and improvement of their young core is going to be the key to their success.

I just posted the Sox 3-5 year window, showing who's under contract and for how long. I think the Sox will be open to seeing the payroll naturally rise as their core goes into arbitration or is extended. But that's also a reason why they aren't going "all in" in 2020, especially when it is uncertain how many fans they will have.

Massive price difference for not a massive performance difference. There could be, if Bauer could continue stringing 2018 or 2020 campaigns out into the indefinite future. I just think there's a lot of risk with Bauer at $30+M per year.

If you look at Spotrac, you can see who the Sox have under contractual control over the next several years. Starting Lineup - SS Tim Anderson - 2021, 22, 23, 24 - 3B Yoan Moncada - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - 1B Jose Abreu - 21, 22 - LF Eloy Jimenez - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - C Yasmani Grandal - 21, 22, 23 - DH/1B - Andrew Vaughn - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - CF Luis Robert - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 - RF Adam Eaton - 21, 22 - 2B Nick Madrigal - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 Bench - Utility Leury Garcia - 21 - C Zack Collins - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - OF Adam Engel - 21, 22, 23 - Extra bench player??? There could be room for another player here. Starting pitchers - Lucas Giolito - 21, 22, 23 - Dallas Keuchel - 21, 22, 23 - Lance Lynn - 21 - Dylan Cease - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Carlos Rodon - 21 - Reynaldo Lopez - 21, 22, 23 Bullpen - Liam Hendriks - 21, 22, 23, 24 - Aaron Bummer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - Evan Marshall - 21, 22 - Matt Foster - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - Cody Heuer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Jace Fry - 21, 22, 23 - Jimmy Cordero - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Zack Burdi -, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 Transition Pitcher - Garrett Crochet - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 - Michael Kopech - 21, 22, 24, 24, 25, 26 2021 Payroll allocation - $123M 2022 Payroll - $116M - no arb 2023 Payroll - $86M - 10 arb 2024 Payroll - $85M - 7 arb ************ Assuming they exercise options: In 2022, they could lose: Garcia, Lynn, Rodon In 2023, they could lose: Abreu, Eaton, Marshall In 2024, they could lose: Grandal, Engel, Giolito, Keuchel, Lopez, Fry I did this little exercise to see graphically where the Sox stand over the next few years. In 2022, the Sox will probably look to extend Lance Lynn. He will get a lot more than the $8M he's getting this year. Leury Garcia can likely be brought back if they like him for a similar number. Whether Rodon returns is a wild card. In 2023, will the Sox let Jose Abreu walk? Not likely. But Eaton and Marshall will likely be replaced. But this is the year when 10 players could hit arbitration, when salaries will rise quite a bit. In 2024, Grandal and Giolito will be up. Giolito has to be the priority. Grandal will likely need to be replaced. Engel, Keuchel, Lopez (if he's still around) and Fry can be replaced. Overall, the Sox appear to be in tremendous shape through the next 4 years with the core of their young players growing together. If the Sox stay on this plan, their payroll commitment will naturally increase over those 4 years as young players get into arbitration years and the Sox need to extend their best players, like Lucas Giolito. If pitchers Garrett Crochet and Michael Kopech turn into TOR starters, the Sox will be able to move on from Keuchel and Lynn, but that's not likely before 2024. From this, I think you can argue that the Sox should spend more money and raise their payroll commitments from the $120M range to a higher platform. But you can also argue that the Sox have done a great job with the money they have spent. They don't really have any bad contracts, and they have a lot of really good ones. I'm just excited that the core of this team is locked up for at least the next 4 years! GO SOX!!!

Sorry, you did say Archie Bradley. I thought you meant Jackie Bradley Jr instead of Eaton in RF.

You aren't really fitting into what the Sox did. Hand + Bradley > Hendriks. First off, you don't save any money. Brad Hand was $10.5M for one year. Hendriks, with a bonus, was $12M. Bradley hasn't signed so we don't know his cost, but it's going to be for a lot more than $1.5M. We'll see if Bradley is a better hitter, He had a decent 2020, but was a sub hitter the 3 years before that. Anything > Eaton. You've chosen Bradley. If you are saying Hand and Bradley could have been had for less than Hendriks and Eaton, I would agree. But I don't think you would have better players. Better defense with Bradley, but probably not better hitting. Anyway, if that's your trade out, it's a reasonable difference of opinion. Lynn v. Snell or Darvish. The problem here is that Darvish himself breaks the bank. You can't add him without sucking up 2/3 of the $30M. That means you can have Darvish and a RF, but no closer. Or Darvish and a closer, but no RF and not even Rodon for pitching depth. (You would have had to trade Dunning to get Darvish). Snell would cost a lot more prospects than we can afford to give up. I think you need to concede that Lynn was the best move for the Sox. Sign and trade? You've already blown the budget, so there's no option of signing Cruz or Ozuna. And Cruz is a short term player at best. Vaughn gives you 6 years of control. Losing cheap controllable assets like that is the best way to ensure a short contention window. Lastly, Tony LaRussa is not an abomination. You may not like him as a person. But as a major league manager, he's done very well.

Nice try, but you can't redo 2020. The question was what would you have done differently THIS year. Plus, keep Ricky?? You lost me there. Ricky obviously couldn't manage tight games. We were swept by a weaker Cleveland team, and lost the third game to Oakland because Ricky panicked and it panicked the team.

I've never understood the reasoning behind signing Bauer. He had an excellent 2018 season, and a similar one in a shortened 2020. But every other year his ERA has been above 4. He's now 30 years old. Should we expect him to go on a monster tear for the next several years? Who knows. Plus, if you sign Bauer for multiple years, there goes any extension for Lynn, and the Sox may be hard pressed to extend Giolito. If he was free, I'd take him. Or if the Sox had unlimited funds, I'd take him. But I think he comes with a lot of opportunity costs that make him not the wisest investment.

I have high hopes for Vaughn, but expect some growing pains, so I guessed 100-110. If he posts it, it will our best DH since Jim Thome. Wow, what a black hole for the Sox. Time to bring some light!

If Collins ends up stinking it up, the Sox can easily add such a catcher during the season. But it's past time to find out what they have in Collins.

Kluber is a multiple Cy Young award winner, who had 5 straight years -- 2014-18 -- that were better than any Sox pitcher we have. For that kind of upside I would be willing to make an adjustment. For Mike Minor?? No way!!