VAfan

I don't "expect" Brantley either, because there will be bidders for him, especially if the NL keeps the DH. I just think: A. The Sox would love Brantley if they can get him for their price. B. Brantley would make more of a difference than a mediocre starter.

BTW - I think the Sox are a bit short of where they could be with another strategic addition. And I also think the Sox are not done adding to this team. But I'm also reminded of the 2005 club. Who thought that team was ready to win the World Series??? - Frank Thomas was hurt and played in only a handful of games. - Jose Contreras, who became our staff ace, was coming off a season with a 5.5 ERA - Jon Garland was coming off a 12-11 4.89 ERA season - We went through 3 closers, with the first 2 not even appearing in the postseason - We finished 9th in runs scored in the AL, where we had finished 3rd in the previous year. But our pitching went from 11th in ERA to first, from 4.91 to 3.61.

What will not happen? Brantley?

Where does the $8M come from? Lynn's salary? Obviously, the Sox spent money after they traded for Lynn, so they could have allocated more for SP. And there is no indication that the Sox are really done adding, even if you listen to Rick Hahn talking about being okay with what they have now. I think the Sox were interested in Kluber and would have matched the $11M the Yankees paid, and perhaps exceeded it. I think Kluber preferred the Yanks for a couple of reasons, just like Wheeler decided to take somewhat less money from the Mets than we offered him. So, I believe the Sox will spend more. Just not $30M more on someone like Bauer.

I think the Sox are going "all in" in their own way. It's just that "all in" to the Sox is not what it is to the fan base, who is happy to spend unlimited amounts of money because it isn't ours. Hendricks is an all in move. Lynn is an all-in move, even if we extend him for a couple years. Eaton is even an all-in move if you don't have the money for Springer because the other OF on the market can't really play RF, and because he's not so expensive you couldn't also get Hendricks. Kluber would be been the ultimate all-in move if they could have kept him from going to the Yankees, because if he's returned to 2014-2018 form he could top our rotation, and because it would deprive the Yankees of the starting pitching they would need to beat us. Tony LaRussa was definitely an all-in move, because you don't accept the risk he poses if you don't think his experience can get you to the WS. I happen to think the Sox are a couple of moves short of being "all-in" for this year, to give themselves the best shot at the playoffs and WS. But I'm not privy to their financials or what they can do. How much more can the Sox spend to truly be "all-in"? That's the question. My personal remaining wish list was Kluber, who could be a bigger steal for $11M than Lance Lynn is for $8M. And Michael Brantley, who should be available for less than his $16M salary from the last 2 years. I would give him the $13M we had allocated for Encarnacion's option. What the Sox shouldn't do is spend money on mediocre pitching just to have another starter. Whomever they look to add needs to be an upgrade over the alternative. For example, if the Sox are going to sign a DH/LF or DH who plays some other position, they need to be a solid upgrade over Vaughn's rookie year. Similarly, if the Sox are going to spend real money to sign another starting pitcher, they need to be a solid upgrade over Cease/Kopech/Lopez when you factor in the potential improvements those pitchers might make under our new pitching coach. They really should be someone you would consider starting in a playoff game. At this point, with Kluber gone and Bauer being the only FA pitcher left who would give us a World Series boost, I would probably focus on adding a bat like Brantley's, because that would give us the biggest upgrade.

His idea about pitching every 4th day reminded me of the Baltimore Orioles back in the day when Earl Weaver was manager. In 1971, they had 4 starters who each won more than 20 games. Mike Cuellar, 292 IP, 3.08 ERA, 20-9 Pat Dobson, 282 IP, 2.90 ERA, 20-8 Jim Palmer, 282 IP, 2.68 ERA, 20-8 Dave McNally, 224 IP, 2.89 ERA, 21-5 Those 4 starters started 142 of 162 games. In 1970, they had 3 starters start 39 or 40 games each. In 1969, they started working up to this. That was 50 years ago, and the game has obviously changed. But it's not as if it is impossible for someone to pitch every 4th day. I don't think the Sox are going to sign Bauer to a multi-year deal. But I have wondered if the market never materializes for him, if he might not be willing to take a 1-year deal at the end of the day. In that case, just like Corey Kluber would have made a lot of sense for the Sox, Bauer might also, albeit at a higher price tag. We certainly can offer the World Series contender part of his wish list.

I'm not a doctor, but I disagree. I think Kluber will be a stud for the Yankees, better than Tanaka. It gives them a second potential ace. It's possible Kluber has fallen off, but for 5 years running before then he was always a Cy Young contender, winning twice. Kluber at his best was better than any pitcher we have. He could have made the Sox staff the best in baseball. But it also looks like the Yanks had the inside track and New York keeps him closer to home. I think he's a bargain at $11M.

Kluber is such a logical move for the Sox, and fit is so good for him, that I texted my son today my belief that the Sox will sign Kluber. Let's review the fit. For the White Sox: 1. 2014-2018 one of the top pitchers in baseball, with 2 Cy Young awards, more than 200 IP each year. So the potential upside is tremendous, even at 35 in April. 2. Familiar with the AL Central, as all but 1 year in Cleveland. 3. He's not going to need a monster guaranteed deal to sign. Will likely have tons of incentives, and might potentially offer an option. This may be the key ingredient in why the Sox would pursue Kluber over Bauer. 4. Sox need a more reliable 4th starter given uncertainty about Kopech, whether Cease can make improvements, and the possibility that Lopez is next to worthless. They don't need a 4 year guy, however, as they expect their young starters -- Kopech, Crochet -- to develop into major roles. They need a 2-year bridge guy. 5. It he pitched at all close to what he did in 2017 or 2018, he would cement the Sox as AL Pennant favorites. 6. Insurance in case they can't get Lance Lynn to extend for a year or two. 7. Could help mentor young Sox pitchers. 8. Would be 4th Sox starter who could get Cy Young votes next year. For Corey Kluber: 1. Chance to join young team locked in for the next 3-4 years that is ready to compete for the World Series. 2. Great bullpen in place to preserve his leads and turn them into wins. 3. AL Central, where he's super familiar. But an upgrade over Cleveland. 4. No pressure to be a top-of-rotation ace. Could slot anywhere from 1-4 in the Sox rotation. Can help mentor young pitchers. 5. Great catcher to pitch to. (One of the reasons Keuchel signed with us.) Make it happen JH!!

The thing about starting pitchers, is someone usually gets hurt. You really need 7 or more solid starters to make it through a season. If you sign Kluber and he's great, Cease still has the inside track to be the #5 guy, with Kopech the one who has to work his way back. If Katz makes Cease into a monster, great!! The Sox will find a place for him.

Boston is not ready to contend. I don't see why Kluber would want to go there unless he just wants innings to regain his value. At his age, he shouldn't be playing for his next contract, he should be trying to win the WS. With the Yankees, he'd be under so much more pressure than he would in Chicago. Only Cole is for sure better in NY. In Chicago, he could be 4th.

Corey Kluber would be the prototypical White Sox move. Relatively low cost, high upside pitcher who would likely take an incentive laden deal. I have no idea about his health, but he was lights out from 2014-18, with more than 200 IP each year, 2 Cy Young awards, etc. In Chicago, he doesn't have to be a top-of-rotation guy, but if he regained his form, he could be. He's a good mentor for Chicago's young pitchers. Plus, the White Sox would seem to have what one might expect Kluber to want - the opportunity to win a World Series that so far has eluded him. I'd be all-in for whatever it would take to sign him.

Happy we got a closer. This was the most essential need left, IMHO. He can be the biggest difference maker, because he keeps everyone in the bullpen in a proper role, and you have that guy not just for the season, but for the playoffs when the pressure is really ratcheted up. The length is certainly a risk. But a necessary one to get him. Next splash for me would be Brantley. I don't see the Sox winning Bauer.

I think the Padres see their window as the number of years of control they have over Tatis, Jr. I think they can see the writing on the wall that there will be no way for them to re-sign him when be becomes a free agent. Snell and Darvish get them 3 years, which are most of the years they will still have Tatis, Jr. After that, they may try to trade Tatis, Jr. and rebuild.

Trevor Bauer isn't getting a 5-6 year deal at any price. He's never been nearly consistent enough for a team to bet on him for that long. He should go back to his idea of 1-year contracts, and rent himself out as the guy who gives a contending team a better chance to go all the way, where the team doesn't have to take any long term risk.

David Dahl is a Colorado player with Colorado splits. He had a .751 OPS on the road, 1.000 OPS in Colorado. And that was his good year. If you look at his career splits, they are worse. Dahl is cheaper than Eaton, but away from Colorado, he's never been better.

I think this is reasonable. I wrote my own post on why I thought the Sox should re-sign Colome. I don't think it has to be limited to a 1-year deal. Crochet could be the closer at the end of this year, but he should be groomed to be a starter by 2022. On the other hand, I would be fine if the Sox sign Hendriks. They need a closer. No one else on our roster could be relied on to close, and Crochet can't do it for a year. He couldn't even make it through 2 innings against Oakland.

The Sox have so far gotten Lance Lynn on the cheap at $8M. Adam Eaton is costing only $7M. The Sox shed a lot more payroll than that, so they could potentially continue to add. Having a closer has to be the highest priority. Who knows how much Hendrix would cost if he's their target. After that, most people would target another pitcher because who knows what they will get from Cease and Kopech, and you don't really want to be using Reynaldo Lopez. But according to tweets, the Sox may still be considering Michael Brantley. That would mean holding Andrew Vaughn down in the minors longer. Vaughn looked ready last spring, but he will be 23 in April, and has only 250 minor league ABs, nothing above high A. The Sox could choose to season him for another full year while they "go for it" with Brantley. Brantley brings a high average, high OBP, and some pop, and he crushes right handers. He's actually got bigger splits than Adam Eaton. So the Sox could theoretically still add Brantley and fit him as an OF/DH platoon with Eloy and Engle. But there probably isn't the roster space to then also add Vaughn, who would just get seasoned in the minors for another year. I would think the Sox offense would be stronger in 2021 with Brantley over Vaughn, and the R/L balance would be more even. So, who knows? I just want the Sox to get the closer next so we can stop being concerned.

2018 is Bauer's only great season out of 9, if you discount this year because it was shortened and only against limited opponents. Lynn has been the more consistent pitcher. Bauer might be the better choice going forward for the next 3-4 years, but he isn't reliable enough to give a big 4-5 year contract to, and has said himself he'd prefer a one year deal. So if it's Lynn at $8M for one year v. Bauer at $25M (just pulling a number out of a hat) for one year, I know which deal I'd take if I were the Sox.

It might go Robert, Eaton, Madrigal, Anderson. That group should put tremendous pressure on pitchers since all of them can run and the last 3 should have high OBP numbers.

If you expected the White Sox to start paying out contracts like Boston, the Yankees, and the Dodgers, then you are just being naive. Lance Lynn has the second most WAR of any starter over the last two years. He's been more consistent than Trevor Bauer, who everyone ranks as the top FA pitcher. He's signed for only $8M, which means the Sox can afford to extend him for a couple of years. They could also use the money saved to extend Giolito, sign a closer, and make other moves. The White Sox have an exciting team with a young core that is going to get a lot better. They were 2nd in the AL in runs last year with holes at DH and RF, an off year driven by Covid illness from Moncada, and Robert's up and down rookie season. They have Andrew Vaughn ready to step in at DH, and Adam Eaton to pair with Adam Engle in RF. Their offense will be better. Lynn makes their starting rotation MUCH better. They have the pitching coach who turned Giolito around now working with all the young arms the Sox have compiled. And to lead them, they have the most accomplished manager in the integrated era in Tony LaRussa. I'm pumped about the Sox. If you and the many other naysayers on Sox Talk want to keep b****ing, go right ahead.

Here are two stat lines using Baseball References averages over 162 games. 14 W - 10 L, 3.57 ERA, 196 IP, 73 BB, 194 K, 116 ERA+, 3.62 FIP, 2.67 K/BB ratio, 24.2 career WAR in 9 seasons 13 W - 11 L, 3.90 ERA, 202 IP, 77 BB, 217 K, 113 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 2.82 K/BB ratio, 17.5 career WAR in 9 seasons. Which of these two stat lines would you rather have? Which one is Lance Lynn and which one is Trevor Bauer? ********** Lance Lynn has the first line. Now, he's older, and will turn 34 in May. Bauer will turn 30 in January. But he's also a whole lot cheaper. And if you think that Bauer is just going to repeat his Cy Young numbers on a full season when having to play outside the AL/NL Central, then look at Bauer's 2019 season, which was split between Cleveland and Cincy (with no DH): 11-13, 4.48 ERA, 213 innings, 83 BB, 253 K, 106 ERA+, 4.34 FIP, 3.09 K/BB ratio, 1.1 WAR. Here's Lance Lynn's 2019 season 16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208.1 innings, 59 BB, 256 Ks, 141 ERA+, 3.13 FIP, 4.17 K/BB ratio, 7.5 WAR. So, why is everyone clamoring for Bauer over Lynn? Younger, yes. Cheaper, no. Better pitcher, maybe. More reliable, no. The Sox have Lance Lynn for one year at $8M. They can probably extend him for another two years for Keuchel money, or less. If so, they would spend less for three years of Lynn than Bauer will likely get over the next two years, and may end up with the better pitcher.

I could see switching Robert and Vaughn, with Robert staying in the 7 hole where he played most of 2020. The reason is his speed, and Vaughn's likely better OBP. If Robert hits 7th, you have Eaton/Engel, Madrigal, and Anderson following. Those are the fastest guys in the lineup. They can all run, which means you can put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers. And if you put them together, there's no slow guy in the middle to gum things up.

Let's talk about how not paying Eaton a ton might help free up money for other things. 1. Closer is now the most important hole the Sox need to fill. I hope/expect it will be to re-up Colome for 2 years. He won't cost a fortune. 2. Giolito needs extending. This may not cost much of anything in the short run, but the more money the Sox save now, the more likely they are to extend Giolito. 3. Lance Lynn should be extended for a couple years, to match the years Keuchel is here. 4. What about James McCann? I wonder if he's completely out of the running. It's likely he is, but he would fill more than a backup catcher role. He would be a good DH straddle with Grandal/Abreu until Vaughn is ready. 5. Another starting pitcher? I don't really want the Sox to sign someone like Quintana, because it's just likely to delay Kopech from taking his role in the rotation. But the Sox may need more depth if behind Giolito, Keuchel, and Lynn they have only Cease, Kopech, and Lopez. They have more minor league guys on the come, but will they be ready in 2021? When you have the core the White Sox have, it's okay to put role players around them. Eaton may be a jerk, but he's a highly competitive jerk who wants to win and helped the Nats win a World Series in 2019. He also knows how to work a count and draw a walk, which is a skill that more Sox hitters should learn.

I wanted Joc Pederson over Adam Eaton. More power, lower OBP. But Eaton isn't the worst option. People are saying his defense has declined but he's got to be better than some of the other options. Springer wasn't happening. As for the locker room cancer, he played on the WS winning Nats 2 years ago, so whatever his personality, it didn't derail the Nats from winning it all. And he was not only on a WS winning team two years ago, he was the #2 hitter on that team. On the White Sox, he's unlikely to hit at the top of the order, though one never knows how TLR will construct the lineup. But he's more likely to hit #8, ahead of Nick Madrigal, giving the Sox three speedy high OBP guys in a row in 8, 9, and 1. That should give the Sox some ability to manufacture runs and not rely completely on the HR for their offense. Being a platoon player with Adam Engle will also likely keep Eaton fresh and slow his decline. He was a very consistent hitter for the 6 years prior to 2020. This deal also comes at a reasonable cost, which could allow the Sox to spend their money elsewhere, but I'll address that in a separate reply.

Dane Dunning in 2020. Here are his games. 1. Beat Detroit 5-3. No decision. Pitched 4.1 innings 2. Beat the Royals 5-2. Pitched 5 innings. 3. Beat the Royals 7-4. No decision. 4.2 innings. 4. Beat Pittsburgh 8-1. 6 innings. 5. Beat Minnesota 6-2. 7 innings 6. Lost to Cleveland 4-7. 4 innings. 7. Beat the Cubs 9-5. No decision. 3 innings 8. Lost to Oakland in the playoffs 6-4. Pitched .2 innings, gave up 2 baserunners and was pulled. He was given 6.56 runs support in the regular season games he started, never receiving less than 4 runs of support. So, in 8 games, Dunning made it to 5 or more innings 3 times, or 37.5% of the time. He gave up 0 runs twice (plus Oakland), and otherwise gave up 3, 3, 2, 4, and 5 runs. ************* Meanwhile, I'm not going to lay out all of Lance Lynn's starts. but in 13 starts, he never pitched LESS than 5 innings. He AVERAGED about 6.2 innings per start. Dunning gave up 17 runs (15 ER) in 34 innings. Lynn gave up 34 runs (31 ER) in 84 innings. But 10 of those 34 runs were in his last start against Houston. Otherwise, he gave up the following run totals in his starts, 0, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 1, 1, 3, 10. (His only 2 bad games were against Houston.) He received 4.26 runs per game in support, with 1 run twice, and 3 runs 4 times, plus 4 runs 3 times. In 7 games, Dunning had 4 runs once, 5 runs twice, plus single games of 6, 7, 8, and 9 runs. So, if you gave Lance Lynn the kind of run support Dane Dunning received in 2020, he would have been 11-2, or maybe 10-3. Plus, let's look at Lynn's 2019 season. 16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208 innings, 246 Ks, 141 ERA+, 7.5 WAR. Lance Lynn is a horse. He has the potential to pitch 200 innings. Go into or complete the 7th inning in a ton of his starts. ********** So how to evaluate the trade. 1. The Sox are MUCH better in 2021 with Lance Lynn. They have a workhorse pitcher they can slot into the top 3 spots who will keep them in just about every game, and will save their bullpen. 2. Lance Lynn costs only $8 million for 2021. This is way below what his market value should be given his recent production. This won't prevent the Sox from making any other moves they want to make. 3. Lance Lynn might be extended past 2021. He'll be 34 in May, so he won't command a huge deal for years 2022, and 2023. He should be the kind of pitcher the Sox can afford. Of course we'd all like the Sox to spend more, but we're likely never going to get there. 4. Dane Dunning is a maybe pitcher. Who knows what Dunning's upside is? It's probably not higher than a 4th or 5th starter, maybe a ceiling of a #3 starter. But for 2021, he wasn't going to give the Sox 30 starts, and he seldom pitched even 5 full innings. 5. Dane Dunning is older than Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech and only a year younger than Reynaldo Lopez. If Dunning were 23 or 24, you might be able to take his numbers and project him to become a better pitcher. But he's about to be 26. Lopez had pitched seasons of 188 and 184 innings by Dunning's age. So, even though you have more control of Dunning, he's not going to be a full time starter until 2022 at the earliest, when he'll be 27. The White Sox have lots more arms on the way who may have higher ceilings than Dane Dunning. 6. Dane Dunning is NOT Shane Bieber. I just had to respond to the post that suggested Dunning's upside was Bieber. Bieber is YOUNGER than Dunning and has already pitched 406 ML innings compared to Dunning's 34. To even make that comparison is just ridiculous. ********** 7. Should the White Sox have just signed Trevor Bauer? Bauer, will be 30 in January, pitched since 2012, career ERA of 3.9, only had a sub-4 ERA in 2 of 9 seasons, total WAR of 17.5. Lynn, will be 34 in May 2021, pitched since 2011, career ERA of 3.57, has had a sub-4 ERA in 8 of 9 seasons (missed 2016), total WAR of 24.2. Also, in 2020, Bauer's best year, he fattened up by pitching against DET 2x, PIT 2x, KC 1X. He also faced MIL 3x, Cubs 2x, and White Sox 1x. Lynn has been the much more consistent pitcher of the 2. When you do a cost comparison, Lynn comes out well ahead of Bauer. ************ My bottom line. I'm good with this trade. I hope the Sox extend Lynn because I think he'll remain effective for a few more years. Just look at Charlie Morton's years when he was 33-35. Lynn could be as good, and will pitch more innings than Morton. I also don't believe Dunning is ready to carry much of a load, is pretty old for a guy just starting out, and the Sox have 3 RHPs ranked just below Dunning in their pipeline in Kelley, Stiever and Thompson, who are 19, 23, and 20. Plus we still have Kopech and Cease who have more upside. So, GO SOX!