VAfan

Until yesterday, I wasn't excited about adding Encarnacion, as it will keep the Sox from finding out what they have in Zach Collins. But I've come around to the idea of EE as a full time DH, back up 1B. With a 26-man roster, it's possible the Sox could still carry Collins and use him and Grandall to cover DH/1B against some right handers, as Abreu and Encarnacion aren't likely to play more than about 120-125 games each. What I think the Sox should do is get a second-year option on EE to improve his trade value, so if the season is not going well in 2020, we can flip him, or, if he does well, we can keep him and still work in Vaughn in 2021.

I'm sure there are better numbers guys out there than me, but I thought I would start a thread about whether the 2020 Sox will be able to move above league average in runs scored, runs allowed, and HRs. Here were the numbers in 2019. Runs scored - Sox 708, league avg 782 Runs allowed - Sox 832, league avg 782 Home runs - Sox 182, league average 226 Why look at this? The first two numbers could be plugged into a Pythagorean projection to estimate wins and losses. The third number is pretty useless for analysis, but just fun to consider. But, since there's no real way to estimate runs scored for the new team, I'm just going to ball-park home runs as a kind of proxy. Not Sabermetrics at all, so don't crucify me. First, let's see who played in the field last year. Name G GS Inn Positions Yolmer Sanchez 149 141 1256.2 2B Leury Garcia 138 134 1158.2 CF-RF-SS-LF-2B-3B-DH Jose Abreu 125 125 1103.2 1B-DH Yoan Moncada 130 129 1095.2 3B-DH Tim Anderson 122 122 1050 SS-DH Eloy Jimenez 114 114 967.2 LF-DH James McCann 106 102 905.1 C-DH Adam Engel 86 65 608.1 CF Ryan Cordell 91 63 599.1 RF-CF-LF Welington Castillo 48 46 395 C-DH Jon Jay 45 42 364 RF-LF-DH Charlie Tilson 51 41 358.1 RF-CF-LF Ryan Goins 46 34 326.2 3B-SS-RF-1B-LF-DH Jose Rondon 45 36 314 2B-SS-3B-LF-1B-P That is a pretty pathetic lineup, wouldn't you say? There is no official DH here, just a lot of guys who took turns. Yonder Alonso had 251 plate appearances and hit 7 HRs. Let's start to compare, using a lineup the Sox might employ. CF - Garcia/Engel - (8/6) combined 14 HRs v. Luis Robert - est. 22 HRs (hit 30 in the minors last year) 3B - Moncada - 25 HRs v. Moncada est. 30 HRs (more experience and hopefully more games) 1B - Abreu - 33 HRs v. Abreu est. 33 HRs (played only 125 games, and will have better support in the lineup) LF - Jimenez - 31 HRs v. Jimenez est. 40 Hrs (played only 114 games, should play more, and bat exploded at the end of the year) C - McCann/Castillo - (18/12) 30 HRs v. Grandal/McCann/Collins est. 38 HRs (25/10/3) (depends on whether the Sox sign Encarnacion; number is higher if these guys are primary DHs) DH - Alonso, et al - 7 HR (not sure how to isolate Sox DH HRs) v. Encarnacion est 32 HRs (he hit this many in only 100 games, think Sox will sign him and he could exceed this number) RF - Cordell/Jay/Tilson - (7/0/1) - 8 HR v. Mazara/Garcia/Engel (20/6/6) est 32 HRs (Garcia/Engel will also get time in other OF spots) SS - Anderson - 18 HRs v. Anderson - est 22 HRs (Anderson played in only 123 games) 2B - Sanchez 2 HR v. Madrigal est. 5 HR In 2019, these totals account for 168 of the Sox 182 HRs. 2020 estimate? 254. If the Sox get around 14 HRs from others like they did in 2019, that would move it up to 268. That would have left them 5th in baseball in 2019. I don't expect the Sox to get to that number, but I do think 250 is possible if the ball is the same and they sign Encarnacion to play DH and back up 1B. If you applied the increased rate of HRs to overall scoring (254/182 x 708) it would yield 988 runs. Not possible. The Yankees scored 943 runs on 306 HRs. The Twins scored 939 runs on 307 HRs. If you take the Yankee ratio of scoring over HRs (943/306) and multiply it by an estimated 254 Sox HRs, it would yield 782 runs, or exactly the league average last year. Of course, this is not scientific AT ALL. It's just a fun exercise to begin to look at the new Sox lineup (with the additional projection of Edwin Encarnacion) compared to last year's version. On the pitching side, let's see who the starters were. Name ERA GS R ER Ivan Nova 4.72 34 107 98 Reynaldo Lopez 5.38 33 119 110 Lucas Giolito 3.41 29 69 67 Dylan Cease 5.79 14 51 47 Dylan Covey 7.98 12 54 52 Ross Detwiler* 6.59 12 54 51 Manny Banuelos* 6.93 8 39 39 Carlos Rodon* 5.19 7 22 20 What do you have now? Lucas Giolito should remain about the same. Ivan Nova is replaced by Dallas Keuchel, who had a 3.75 ERA. Reynaldo Lopez will hopefully take a bit step forward. Gio Gonzalez and his 3.5 ERA is taking the starts of Dylan Covey, Ross Detwiler, and Manny Banuelos Dylan Cease should take a big step forward. And then we have Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon coming back during the year to fill in and push the weakest link(s) to the bullpen if they can. We also have Grandal and his pitch framing to help out most of these pitchers. Is that going to reduce the runs allowed by 50 or more on the season? I should help a lot more than that. But a lot depends on improvements by the young pitchers and the ability of Keuchel and Gonzalez to continue at the levels they've been. This is a pretty unwieldy post, I'll admit. I just wanted to start a conversation on the overall improvements the Sox have made, and how much it will help their bottom line. It doesn't put us near the top of baseball, but it should move the team into above average territory for runs scored, runs allowed, and HRs.

I agree with this completely. I don't understand why so many fans want to just push Collins out when the team hasn't given him a real chance. He walks a ton, which is something missing from the Sox. He's a lefty, which the Sox need. 2020 is going to be a testing year, with Robert, Madrigal, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, and Rodon all providing uncertain production. Adding Collins to that mix doesn't change much. And he might turn out to be a really good hitter. The Sox need to find out. Plus, the Sox really need a 3rd catcher, or Renteria won't DH Grandal on his non-catching days. He refuses to DH his catcher without a backup on the bench. I'd much rather see the Sox continue to try to develop their young players than blow their limited funds on old DHs.

Lots of good comments on the post. I agree with most of them. I'm all for the Sox being aggressive, to give us a chance, if everything clicked, of sniffing the postseason next year. But they need to be smartly aggressive by adding pieces that have a multi-year shelf life and leave some payroll flexibility. Then again, I'd be all for Gerrit Cole if he was willing, even if it took $5M more per year than the competition. Having that true ace can make all the difference.

I don't post much here anymore, so if I missed a thread on this, forgive me. But with the hand wringing over losing Wheeler to the Phillies, I thought I would toss this post out there. Aren't we expecting a lot as fans to think the Sox will be contenders in 2020? On the hitting side, we are projecting Robert in CF and Madrigal at 2B. They might be great players, but they aren't any more likely to be stars out of the gate as rookies than Moncada was. Moncada didn't turn into a stud until this last year, his 3rd year in the majors. Plus, if the Sox want extra control, they might hold both back at the start of the season. We also seem to be expecting Zack Collins to step in as the left handed DH and do something. His 76 OPS+ in 27 games last year suggests this may be a tad optimistic. That's 3 slots out of 9 on offense. And that assumes we sign a right fielder who is ready to do some damage in 2020. The pitching staff situation is probably worse. We have Lucas Giolito as the only returning pitcher with an ERA under 4.0 last year. That requires us to project in Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez, some unnamed starting pitcher or pitchers we're going to sign. Even if Kopech and Cease are great, how many innings will they be good for? Carlos Rodon is shelved till mid-season and can't seem to stay healthy. Giolito only got to 176 innings. Where are the 200+ innings pitchers? (Granted, there aren't that many in the majors any longer.) Let's say we even added Wheeler, which we haven't. That still leaves us projecting a lot on the other starters, all of whom are unproven. The bullpen is also missing some pieces. This could be patched in one offseason, but will it be? It seems to me the Sox are still a year away from making any kind of serious run. They should be building the team accordingly, and we shouldn't expect more.

To Balta, Looks like a huge uptick until you look at the numbers. 1 mph average increase. Abreu's has been playing and producing in that environment. Why think he can't continue, especially with better players around him?

Paul Konerko had the best offensive season of his career at age 34. And his 4th best season at age 35. With better hitters around him, why couldn't Abreu perform well over the next couple of years? That leaves his third season as the biggest question of this deal. But is it really crippling for the Sox? I live just outside DC and watched the Nationals win the World Series. Ryan Zimmerman was overpaid for the last several years, but the Nats don't win the World Series without him. Abreu is the glue not just for the Cubans, but probably for all the Latin players on the team. A team is more than just stats. I'm not thrilled by this, but I'm also not of the opinion that it stinks, or handcuffs the Sox. Abreu is still an asset -- there are plenty of guys we've had the last few years who haven't been -- so the more assets, generally the better off the team is.

As long as Tatis was brought up, I am posting this from a piece in the Athletic today that makes me sick all over again. I still think the Tatis trade may leave the Sox short one super player from being real contenders. Only another World Series appearance title would push this horrific error into the past. (Yet the Padres aren't much better than we are, even with Tatis and Machado.) 2. Fernando Tatis, SS, San Diego Padres WAR: 4.3 OPS+: 161 Slash line: .320/.383/.600 Tatis has been a human highlight film in the field and on the bases, with 13 doubles, six triples, 22 home runs and 16 stolen bases. He’s one of the most complete rookie players we have ever seen, and he’s accomplishing things that no other shortstop under the age of 21 has ever done, such as his 22 homers, which already surpass Alex Rodriguez’s 21 in 1996. Tatis also has a staggering 30 multiple-hit games and has failed to hit in just 16 of the games he’s played. It’s amazing to think Tatis missed a month because of a pulled hamstring. His energy, enthusiasm, quick-twitch muscles and athleticism make him a must-watch.

I'll never be over it. Like Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. Except worse.

The Sox have been so bad that I've stopped paying attention to baseball, even though it was my favorite sport for a long time.

I'm sure it has, but it wasn't it's own thread since the Machado deal went down.

I don't post here much any more. But I decided I just wanted to put this out there. I was disappointed the Sox didn't get Machado, even though I think the guy has some attitude flaws. But what burns me as a Sox fan was the team's horrific blunder of trading Fernando Tatis Jr in the deal for James Shields. It was all brought home when the Padres, not the Sox, ended up with Machado too. If you think of it this way - if the Sox still had Tatis Jr, they would have had a lot less need to go after Machado. Here are Tatis's numbers in AA at age 19 88 394 353 77 101 22 4 16 43 16 5 33 109 .286 .355 .507 .862 179 Here are Machado's numbers at age 19 in AA 109 459 402 60 107 26 5 11 59 13 4 48 70 .266 .352 .438 .789 176 If you didn't know who was who, you'd have to prefer Tatis's numbers to Machado's. That one ill advised trade is one of the reasons the Sox's rebuilding plan may never work. The Sox are AT LEAST one major controlled talent from being contenders any time soon. And it may turn out that Tatis Jr. is better than any of the young talent the Sox actually have, with the possible exception of Eloy Jimenez. What the heck were the Sox thinking? I can't think of any other prospects the Sox have traded who have turned into studs. It's possible Tatis won't turn into a stud either. But right now, I sure wish he were still with the Sox.

Fernando Tatis Jr for James Shields.

For relievers, you trade them after you have increased their value as closers. That means trading Robertson and moving up Jones or Kahnle, and when their value rises after they show they can handle the 9th, then you trade them. A setup guy, no matter how good, won't bring as much back.

Here's a crazy thought that's been in my head for some time. Only now have i had a moment to put it into a post. With the rebuilding project stalled after only Chris Sale and Adam Eaton were traded, I started wondering if the White Sox could more than compensate for their loss if a bunch of their other players played better than they did last season. For example. 1. Jose Abreu. .657 OPS in March/April, .711 OPS in May, .700 OPS in July. But 1.061 OPS in August, .885 in June, and .887 in Sept/Oct. Finished with an .820 OPS overall. Clearly, there's a lot of potential improvement there. He stunk it up 3 of the first four months of the season, then got insanely hot. 2. Todd Frazier. Might not hit 40 HRs again, but he could do better than a .757 OPS, as he beat that 3 of his previous 4 years. 3. Tim Anderson. He's the starting SS from the get go. Jimmie Rollins isn't getting 150 ABs to flush down the toilet. 4. No more Dioner Navarro, and is 67 OPS+. Alex Avila was much better as a hitter, but got only 169 ABs. Framing wise, both Navarro and Avila were bad. 5. No more JB Shuck putting up a 52 OPS+ over 224 ABs. 6. Carlos Rodon, with a better framing catcher, could do better than a 4.04 ERA. 7. James Shields might be awful, but can't really be worse than 4-12 and a 6.77 ERA. 8. Derek Holland. What if he pitches reasonably? 9. The bullpen. No Matt Albers. Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam back. Nate Jones further away from his injury. Should be deeper and better. 10. No more Robin Ventura to kick around. Of course, the Sox are hopeful to unload a lot more talent before the season either commences, or ends. But as the team stands now, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that, with no expectations, it could surprise. What do you think?

Don't mean to sound like a cynic with that title. I'm excited by the haul Rick Hahn has gotten for two of the White Sox' most valuable players. And it had to be done. Plus, he's just getting started. I'm just pointing out that for the 3rd year in a row, Rick Hahn has made the most waves at the Winter Meetings, and gotten everyone talking about the White Sox. But then the season comes around, and things haven't worked out so well. Of course, this year, we will at least not have any expectations for on-field success! (On a side note, of the tradeable players, I think Nate Jones is the one who doesn't make much sense, as his value would likely increase if Robertson is moved and Jones proves he can close.)

I think the Sox don't have any good choices. But I've come to the view at the moment that their most likely path is to try again to patch holes in the offseason and go for it again in 2017. Chris Sale and Quintana will always be tradeable, so there is no rush to unload them, and their value won't be lower next season. The only guys you could unload for some value before their run is up is Frazier and Lawrie and Melky. All are signed through next year. What would they net? Would it be enough to go for the tear down now, as opposed to next year, if the Sox fail again? I think any tear down is looking at another 3+ years to anything competitive, under best case scenarios. At that point, Rodon is nearing the end of his first contract, Anderson is starting arbitration, Eaton will be over 30. In short, there will be no one left from this current team that will be a bargain player the way that Sale, Quintana and Eaton are now. And waiting another year to start the rebuild will give you another year of development of whatever we have in the minors. And since all those guys are years off, that's a plus, not a minus. If we had several guys on the cusp, a tear down now might yield a more rapid return to relevance. I don't see that. So, the Sox should play out the year. Unload any guys with 1-year contracts who won't be back for whatever you can get. But keep all the pitchers and the 2-year guys, make what moves you can in the offseason, and try again. As part of going for it in 2017, however, the Sox have to try it with a different manager. Ventura has had 2 years of tweaked teams to show something, and he's failed. Not sure a new manager will make the difference, but it has to be tried. Going into next year, the Sox could be stronger. SP - Sale and Q will still anchor. Shields can be a solid #3. Rodon needs to be a lot better. Gonzalez might be kept as one of the options for the 5th slot. This would be better than they started 2016. BP - lots of guys injured at the moment. Return to health should improve this unit. Plus Fullmer and Burdi might strengthen it. Fullmer might also be considered as a 5th starter option. Lineup keepers. Anderson, Eaton, Melky, Frazier, Lawrie, Abreu. Not great, but potentially servicable. Key here is Abreu. He has to turn it around or the Sox aren't going to have a decent offense. Lineup turnover. CF, DH, C. Those are the 3 biggest holes. They need to be filled with quality, not afterthoughts. Guys who are BETTER than the 6 keepers. To conclude: when you are 3 good players and a new manager from having a contending team, it's not time to throw in the towel and start over. Better to go for it. If you miss, it won't have really cost you anything.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 18, 2016 -> 02:59 PM) From my point of view, it's more like this: I predicted a roughly .500 team in our preseason thread, and today I'm looking at a roughly .500 team. Any who thought the Sox were going to win by sheer force of raw talent alone were lying to themselves, but this is a team who still has a shot at a playoff berth if it simply plays as well as it's capable. The odds are against us (as they are against practically every team) but not overwhelmingly against us. That was ALWAYS the outlook. It's okay to think that it was a garbage plan all along, but this is what it's been the whole time. I don't like the recent streak either, but I'd rather turn on the next game and hope for a win while it's still summer and I can still do it. Plenty of cold, dark, miserable months ahead to brood in. Nothing wrong with being an optimist. My post was more just my personal take at this point, that it's over for the Sox for me this year. I don't live in Chicago, so it's hard to catch games, and relatively easy for me to tune the team out. As I've written in a couple of posts, I'm as disappointed in the "stars" of this team as in anything else. The guys who are supposed to carry a team have been underwhelming, with the exception of Sale and Quintana and a couple of others. Maybe a better manager would wake them up, maybe not.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 18, 2016 -> 11:26 AM) White Sox will likely not win another game in any of our lifetimes.

Losing the last series before the break to Atlanta, including a Sale loss when we scored 8 runs, was bad enough. But losing 3 in Anaheim after the break by scoring 1 run in 3 games is really the death knell. There is no hope for this version of the White Sox to compete for anything in 2016. No hope for playoffs. No hope for even a .500 record. Glad I am not in Rick Hahn shoes. He has no good options.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 15, 2016 -> 11:21 AM) Abreu went from star to average, Garcia went from dogs*** to old, smellier dogs***. I get your point, but let's be honest here: no one is looking replace Abreu. We will replace Garcia as soon as we possibly can. Frankly, we probably should be. If the Sox knew this year's Abreu was the guy we would have for the rest of his contract, then it might have completely changed the evaluation whether to re-tool or try to tweak things and go for it during this "window." Because, frankly, the only cheap guys we have performing above their pay grade are Sale, Quintana, Eaton, and probably Nate Jones. Pretty hard to build a championship club from so little, when the team doesn't have the TV or gate revenue to buy upgrades at enough slots to complement these guys. Abreu is unfortunately no longer clearly part of the solution. Maybe, hopefully, he'll find a way to turn it around. Because if he doesn't, replacing Garcia isn't going to make a whit of difference.

"killing the Sox" -- headline was too long. Here are Abreu's numbers: Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2014 ★ 27 CHW AL 145 622 556 80 176 35 2 36 107 3 1 51 131 .317 .383 .581 .964 173 323 14 11 0 4 15 2015 28 CHW AL 154 668 613 88 178 34 3 30 101 0 0 39 140 .290 .347 .502 .850 135 308 16 15 0 1 11 2016 29 CHW AL 86 380 342 33 93 19 1 11 52 0 2 22 77 .272 .326 .430 .756 105 147 13 9 0 7 5 Here are Garcia's numbers: 2013 22 CHW AL 42 168 161 19 49 4 2 5 21 3 2 5 38 .304 .327 .447 .775 109 72 5 1 0 1 0 9/8 2014 23 CHW AL 46 190 172 19 42 8 0 7 29 4 1 14 44 .244 .305 .413 .718 105 71 5 2 0 2 1 9 2015 24 CHW AL 148 601 553 66 142 17 2 13 59 7 7 36 141 .257 .309 .365 .675 89 202 13 8 0 4 3 *9D 2016 25 CHW AL 71 276 250 31 58 8 1 5 28 2 2 22 70 .232 .301 .332 .633 74 83 7 3 0 1 0 D9/7 Abreu has gone from a .964 OPS his first year, to .756 this year, a drop of .208. His OPS+ has gone from 173 to 105. Garcia went from a short-season high of .775 OPS in 168 ABs, to this year's .633, a drop of .142. His OPS+ went from 109 to 83. I'm here to argue that what's killing the Sox more than anything is the lack of their "good" players producing. SSS had a post on Abreu today. This is also a follow-up on my earlier thread about how the White Sox will not win until their players produce. That blamed more than Jose Abreu, who I'm singling out today. The problem for me is that Avisail Garcia was never intended to carry the team. Sure, he's a hole in the lineup that the Sox should fill. But if the players the Sox counted on to carry the team were in fact producing at the level they have produced in the past, the Sox' record would be a lot better, and it would make even more sense to fill the hole caused by Garcia. As it is, replacing Garcia will offer a slight bump up, as will finding a replacement CF, but the Sox will still founder because their CORE is NOT PRODUCING. Chris Sale is, but he's the exception. You can't win if your players can't at least play to the level you could reasonably expect based on past performance. Right now, Jose Abreu is NOT a middle of the order hitter. And that's a HUGE problem.

Pitching will be more consistent in the second half. The offense will be as well. Sox will be close enough to add a bat.

I wonder why so many of the players the Sox have acquired have underperformed once they got here. Even the great guys like Abreu are no longer pulling their weight. When has Todd Frazier ever been a .198 hitter? Even Eaton just totally stunk it up at the beginning of last season. Same with Melky for most of last season. This strikes me as the MAJOR problem for the White Sox. On paper, the Hahn moves have not been so bad if the players he acquired performed to projections. I mean, when has David Robertson ever blown a 7-1 lead in the 9th inning? It's just bizarre what has happened. The topper, of course, is the James Shields acquisition. The guy has been a horse for years. 200 innings could be counted on. Not a top notch guy any longer, but you would think he'd be a plus as a 4th or 5th starter. Yet he's looking like one of the most spectacular flame outs in major league history. BIZARRE.

QUOTE (LVSoxFan @ Jun 20, 2016 -> 09:32 AM) While that's correct, if it were just a matter of good players living up to their ability, we wouldn't need managers/coaches. I think you realize how important management is when you hit a bump like we did in Texas, from which we never recovered--apparently. I'm totally on board with the need for players to produce but our management issues are so deep-rooted and in such decomposition at this point that I can't even begin to address the players on the field. Somebody mentioned the last time we made the playoffs being 2008. While technically correct, we basically stumbled into that appearance (after the admittedly awesome Blackout Game) and then got smoked first round, predictably. I don't think player performance is all on the manager or coaches. If it was, then those guys are SERIOUSLY underpaid. No, I think the players have to perform up to expectations for a team to have a good season. And the White Sox have been loaded with underperformers. But you really have to wonder if blowing it up and replacing these players will help anything, or will it just bring in a new group of guys to underperform. Same would be true regarding adding anyone this year in hopes of improving. I think the Shields fiasco could be the straw that broke the camel's back here. Unless the team can somehow show he's injured and get some kind of insurance settlement, that move has sapped most of the spending money that might be used to help the club. Plus, you'd still have the underperformance issue. Personally, I wouldn't do anything to change the club unless the players started taking ownership of their own wins and losses. You can always fire Robin Ventura, but I'm not sure that move would accomplish anything.