VAfan

QUOTE (Special K @ Jun 3, 2015 -> 02:54 PM) Sox are 23-27. They've played 50 games. Since 1995, less than 10% of the teams that won their division had won 25 games or less after 54 games of baseball played. As for wildcard spots after 54 games played, less than 25% of the teams that made the wildcard had 25 wins or less. The odds and history are not on this team's side. And, as I said, Sox do not appear to be the "exception to the norm" with respect to these statistics. So tell me, why are my comments stupid? Because the rest of the AL is largely .500, which was NOT the case in most of the years since 1995 at this stage of the season. As I mentioned in my own post a few days ago, when were 3 games under, one 8-2 run, assuming everyone else stayed the same, would put us 3 games over .500 and in the playoffs. So, the Sox may in fact finish poorly or out of the playoffs. But it's FAR TOO SOON to make that assumption. The reason the team is under pre-season expectations is because almost the entire offense is underperforming career norms. If several or most of those players rebound to career norms, the Sox will become contenders.

I think the Sox might be bad, for many of the reasons given above. I just don't think we're close to being "out of it." And I think the potential for improved play is there for the reasons that many of us saw before the season. If we got even career average hitting out of our lineup, we'd pretty quickly move into contention. Where we go from here is anyone's guess. What I'm mostly reacting to are the multiple "trade everyone" posts I saw when I came here yesterday.

Fortunately for my sanity, I haven't been watching these first 49 games that closely. They have certainly been putrid, especially on offense. But that actually gives me cause for optimism. - We're only 3 games under .500. - The Minnesota Twins are in first place, and lead us by only 7 games. - The AL East is led by two teams that are each only 1 game over .500. - The AL West second place team is only 2 games over .500 - There are only 3 AL teams more than 5 games above .500 - In other words, we are within 3 games of all but 4 teams in the AL, and 5 teams make the playoffs - The offense CAN'T remain THIS BAD. Eaton, Melky, Abreu, LaRoche, Alexei, Gillaspie, Flowers, Soto. ALL have hit better than this. - The only guy who is possibly overachieving is Avisail, and who's to say he can't get better? - The starting pitching is starting to come around - Chris Sale threw a masterpiece against Baltimore. He's not going to finish with an ERA in the mid-3s. He seems to be past the setback from missing spring training. - Samardzija is not going to end up with an ERA closer to 4 than 3. - Quintana may still be the unluckiest starter in baseball, but his ERA in the 4s is not where it's going to end up. - Carlos Rodon is now in the rotation, and is likely to give us a lot of good starts - John Danks just pitched his first shutout since 2011, and looks capable of pitching at least as well as last year, when he was a .500 pitcher. - The bullpen can pitch better than it has. And we may have reinforcements coming at some point this year. - Our expected W-L is 19-30, but we're 4 games better than that. Not sure if that's good or bad, but I'm taking it as a good sign, since we are maximizing the return on the performance we're getting. If I were the Sox brass, I wouldn't be planning on making any kind of fire sale. I would stay the course, and expect the team to shake itself out of its offensive doldrums. When it does, the starting pitching and bullpen could still let the team get on a roll. One 8-2 stretch would put us 3 games over .500, which would rank us 5th in the AL. This is a very different team than last year. Melky, LaRoche, Garcia (who didn't play much last season), Soto, Sanchez/Johnson, Beckham at 3rd, Bonafacio, Shuck -- all are new. Samadzija, Rodon, Duke, Robertson, Jennings, Albers (DL) are all new. That's more than half of the roster. It's far too soon to throw in the towel, just 49 games in. Let's see what happens through the All Star break. I hope Hahn is looking to improve, not cut and run. GO SOX!!

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Apr 22, 2015 -> 12:22 PM) I don't think you were wrong about this team. I just think it's taking them a bit of time to get their s*** together. But once they do I think we can all expect good things. This does not mean the Royals and Tigers are not going to be very tough to beat, but they both have flaws just like the Sox. Each has had their hot streak. Soon we'll have ours. This.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 20, 2015 -> 01:09 PM) The bullpen should be pretty stacked now, probably better than it's been since the White Sox won it all. Now if the starters can step up, and the offense can get it going, this team should be cooking with gas. Better than 2005? That was a very successful bullpen in part because the starters were all so strong that they didn't have to tax themselves too much. But it would be VERY hard to top the record the 2005 club had in 1-run games. Edit -- you are saying since 2005, not better than 2005. Possibly. Have to think about it longer.

Don't get all the freaking out in this thread. This move makes perfect sense. Even Chris Sale came up as a reliever. Keeps Rodon's innings down so he's potentially viable at the end of the season. Allows him to acclimate to MLB hitters in small doses initially. If he's lights out, you can quickly test him in more stressful situations. If he's still got a learning curve, you can use him in situations that don't cost you games. There are a LOT of reasons to get him up to speed in a series of relief outings before you shift him to the rotation. It also allows you to better evaluate which starter he should replace. I'm just thrilled he's not using up his innings in Charlotte.

But is someone actually going to claim Drabek? With Putnam scuffling, and Drabek bad, the Sox pen isn't nearly as deep as it needs to be. We need Jones and Crain and a good Petricka in a bad way.

Kirk Gibson for manager? No way, though I'm not a fan of Robin Ventura's managing. Only reason I'm posting here is my son had a "Kirk Gibson moment" in Little League a couple of years ago. It was a LL playoff game, AAA level, and my son's team was tied going into extra innings. While at bat, he fouled a ball off his instep and fell down in a heap, writhing in pain. He lay their agonizing for a seeming eternity. Then he slowly got up and tried to put a little weight on his foot. He could barely limp around to walk it off. But, he was going to tough it out and step back in the batter's box. He's a lefty, like Gibson. But he's always been the shortest player on his team. On the next pitch, with a man on base, he hit the ball over the center fielder's head!! It wasn't a homer, and because he couldn't run, it was only a double. But it drove in what became the winning run. His team went on to win the championship. And my son had his "Kirk Gibson moment."

There are so many ways this team is better. Here are 15 random points. 1. Samardzija is taking the spot of Scott Carroll and Rienzo and some other dogs we trotted out. 2. Sale is unlikely to get used for 127 pitches in a game and land on the DL. 3. Q in the 3 hole will face weaker competition, turning many of his no decisions into wins. 4. We actually have a closer. And a lefty 8th inning guy. 5. The revamped bullpen, while likely to be a work-in-progress early on, could make a 10-game difference on it's own. 6. The top 4 hitters all get on base at a .350 clip or above. 7. LaRoche has about the same power as Dunn, but with a much better average, and far fewer K's. 8. Abreu is in the conversation for being the best hitter in baseball. 9. Avisail Garcia is going to be a MONSTER, and will really help the offense click. 10. We have a quality backup catcher who might be better than the starter. 11. The infield D could be a little shaky outside of SS, but we have defensive subs for all those spots. 12. Micah Johnson has to be a ton better than what we got out of 2B last year, and if he isn't, we have plenty of options. 13. No more Dayan Viciedo defensive lapses in the outfield. 14. We have Carlos Rodon available as soon as mid-April if we need him. 15. We have other minor league guys who might help us late. I'm not sure it will all come together right out of the gate, but I think this team will click at some point and be very solid.

QUOTE (flavum @ Apr 4, 2015 -> 02:32 PM) I'll take his 2014 season this season in a heartbeat. Now will he put up 20 quality starts again? We'll see. Maybe he just needs a little regular season adrenaline. Don't give up on Danks just yet. I agree with this. He just needs to be a .500 pitcher, and eat innings at the back of the rotation. With a stronger offense and better bullpen, the Sox might actually win more of his starts this year.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 3, 2015 -> 01:49 PM) I like Avi batting behind Alexei because Alexei being in motion much more frequently than Abreu/LaRoche should open up some more holes on the infield for Avi. I think Ramirez should hit 6th, or even 7th if Gillaspie is hitting righties like he was until July last year. Garcia might be the second best hitter on the team. If he's not there yet, I think he'll get there, passing Melky because of his power. He's poised to have a monster year with 4 high-OBP guys ahead of him. Ramirez can still get his RBIs a little lower in the lineup.

We don't need another pessimism thread. There's already one of those.

QUOTE (flavum @ Apr 3, 2015 -> 12:10 PM) How did you feel about this team 10 years ago? Bolds- new to the Sox Podsednik, Iguchi, Everett, Konerko, Dye, Rowand, Pierzynski, Crede, Uribe Gload, Harris, Perez, Ozuna, Widger Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras, Hernandez, Garland Politte, Cotts, Vizcaino, Marte, Hermanson, Takatsu DL- Thomas I doubt ANYONE saw the amazing run of 2005 coming before it started. - Wire to Wire - Best record in baseball - Had the lead in something like the first 35-40 games of the year. (Have to look up the number.) - Won first game of year 1-0, first game after ASB 1-0, and last game of WS 1-0. - Ended season through playoffs with two 8 game winning streaks sandwiched around a 3-2 loss that would have been a tie had Contreras gone home with a comebacker early instead of trying for a DP that didn't work. - 4 straight complete game wins against the Angels in the ALCS. - Dustin Hermanson as closer early. Bobby Jenks getting picked up for nothing to be the closer late. - Podsednik with 0 HR in the regular season, but 2 in the postseason, including a walk-off one against Brad Lidge. - The freak plays that really helped the Sox in the postseason -- Dropped third strike to Pierzynski, and phantom HBP against Jermaine Dye. - Iguchi 3-run homer against Wells that brought the Sox all the way back out of a 4-0 hole. - El Duque's masterful bases loaded no out relief job at Fenway to help sweep out the defending World Champ BoSox, and lead the ChiSox to their first playoff series win since ... 1917! - Don't stop believin theme song. I could go on and on about that year. When it was over, I wrote a 17-page remembrance to the season so I wouldn't lose those memories.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Apr 3, 2015 -> 02:06 AM) If history repeats itself - LaRoche will have a slow start. That said, he'll at least be a 6 week whipping boy. I've got higher hopes for him thou and was a big fan of this move. What are you talking about? LaRoche in 2014: March/April - .312, .413, .495 May - .341, .417, .585 If that's a slow start, I think we'll all take it!

I voted 90 wins. Why not? Better to hope for the best than be "right." I think the offense could be awesome. I love the top 6, believe Avisail Garcia is going to break out, and Ramirez is going to drive in a ton of runs in the #6 hole. Gillaspie will probably not be as good as he was early last year, but with a platoon partner, should hold up till the end of the year and put up overall better numbers. The bench is better with Soto and Bonafacio, and Johnson is going to be so much better than Beckham on offense. It looks to me like we can bash, and manufacture runs. The pitching will be good enough. Having a closer will make the all the difference.

Thanks for the comments. I've enjoyed them, and learned quite a bit as well.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 05:24 PM) Guys with more than 300 plate appearances at leadoff last season, sorted by total offensive runs. Threw baserunning runs in there too to show that Eaton is near the bottom, to nobody's surprise. Why 300 PA's? I don't know, seemed appropriate. It really depends on how you want to define what a leadoff hitter is. If you want to reject a bunch of other guys because they didn't hit first in a high enough percentage of AB's, what's even the point? I see a few guys on that list that did a better job than Eaton but as long as he shows last year wasn't a fluke, we'll be happy. Thanks for the chart. Nice addition. As for rejecting guys who don't hit leadoff enough, someone else is filling the leadoff slot for that team, so why not try comparing apples and apples? Eaton is never going to be one of the best hitters in the game. But he could become one of the best leadoff guys. Obviously, he has to stay on the field first.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 01:59 PM) It's really hard to rank him relative to other other leadoff hitters as there aren't many pure leadoff hitters today. Trout, McCutchen, Gomez, and Ellsbury are definitely your best leadoff hitters when they are leading off full time. If you are only looking at the full time lead off hitters, there's only a handful of them; Revere, Hamilton, Gordon, Span, Jose Reyes, are guys on top of my head that I would put over Eaton at the moment. It's also hard to rank him based on half a season of sample size, not to mention rank him as the best in the league. FWIW, he fared extremely poor in Fangraph's BsR (baserunning rating), which combines uBR (baserunning excluding stealing bases) and wSB (value from stolen base). Let's see how he does in his second full season. Trout didn't have a single lead-off AB last year. McCutcheon hit 3rd in the lineup every game he played last year. By that measure, we'd be debating Jose Abreu as a lead off hitter. Carlos Gomez hit #1 for 418 ABs, and posted an excellent .358 OBP. He also hit clean up for 150 ABs. Jacoby Ellsbury led off 202 ABs last year, and posted a sub .300 OBP (.298). The Yankees moved him to #3 for 365 ABs, where he posted a more respectable .342 OBP. I understand the reluctance to rate Eaton on only one season. But only Gomez really rates as lead-off competition. As for the others: Revere - .325 OBP Hamilton - .292 OBP Span - .355 OBP Reyes - .328 OBP Gordon - .326 OBP Over 600 plate appearances, Eaton's .362 OBP leads to 20+ more times on base than Revere, Reyes, or Gordon. Of course, they all have more steals. But they also don't have Eaton's slugging percentage, as all come in under .400 SLG. Span gives you steals and over .400 SLG. So I think there is a fair debate here.

I started with Adam Eaton, and how to rank him among MLB's best lead off men. Next up is Jose Abreu. Where does he rank just purely as a hitter, leaving out any defensive metrics. For those who like WAR, Abreu ranked 6th as a rookie in offensive WAR. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/...f_top_ten.shtml He was #1 in slugging at .581, second (to Victor Martinez) in OPS at .964, tied for 4th in HR at 36, 10th in OBP, and 6th in batting average. And all of this as a "rookie" who had never played nearly as many games in a season as last year. I'm sure you stat guys can dig up other numbers to look at. The big question is how will he and the league adjust in his second season and beyond? My personal view is that he's just getting started. What's your take?

Adam Eaton had a tremendous season last year. Overall he hit .300, .362 OBP, .401 SLG. But in the second half, those numbers went to .347, .396, .447. Incredible! If you just go off the idea that a lead off hitter's job is to get on base, then Eaton's .362 OBP was the best lead off number in the American League for pure lead off guys. Jose Altuve was slightly better at .377, but he led off only about half of his ABs. Even if you add in National League lead off hitters, only Christian Yelich at Miami is able to tie Eaton's .362 clip. And you have to wonder if we are more likely to see Eaton's torrid second half going forward than his weaker first half. Sure, Eaton doesn't run much. 15 SB and 9 CS. That's bad. But with 10 triples, which only Dee Gordon exceeded, he seems to have plenty of speed. So where do you think Eaton stands. Is it possible he's already the best lead off hitter in the game? If not, who is better? (And in case you are thinking Mike Trout, he didn't lead off even once last year.)

Here are my preliminary answers. 1. I think the Sox want it to be Johnson. But it's more likely that someone will hold down the fort until Johnson is ready. Sanchez, probably, but if Saladino proves he can hit, it might be him. Beckham and Bonafacio provide insurance in case one of the young guys is not ready. 2. I think the Sox want it to be Soto. But if he's not healthy, none of the other options look great to me. Kottaras only had 38 plate appearances last year for 3 different teams. 3. I think Crain will make it back, but possibly not right away. The Sox can probably stash him on a DL list if he needs more time. I think Nate Jones will also be in the mix late in the season. 4. I agree with those who say Rodon won't break with the club, and when he comes up could start in a bullpen role. But if the Sox are contending, I think they'll want to use him as a starter in the second half. If he looks really good, maybe Danks or Nieto will be traded. 5. LaRoche looks like he'll probably play most of the time, though his splits against lefties were pretty bad (but they were slightly better than Gillaspie's splits). I'm not sure the Sox have someone on the roster to fill his platoon slot, but I bet they'll keep looking. If Johnson makes it at second base, I could see him sitting against lefties with Beckham and Bonafacio subbing for him and Gillaspie. That would currently leave JB Shuck as an option, but he's a lefty too. I even checked Soto's splits, and he didn't hit lefties well. 6. Shuck appears the only guy to fill that role now, but I think the Sox keep looking here, with whomever they find becoming the LaRoche platoon partner. 7. Bullpen? Robertson, Duke, Jennings seem set. Petricka and Putnam slot next for me. It'll be a huge dogfight for the last 2 slots between Guerra, Crain, Albers, Webb, Surkamp, and perhaps other guys picked up off the street. 8. I think Eaton, Garcia, Abreu, and Sale will all be healthier. No need to have Sale throw too many pitches in a game now that we have a bullpen. Abreu should be better adjusted to a 162 game season, and LaRoche can let him DH more. Eaton may have hammy issues again, but I expect he's learned from running into walls. And Garcia better not be diving for baseballs. 9. I have an optimistic hope for Matt Davidson, even if it's based on no evidence. The Sox could use a righty power bat on the bench. Johnson now has to worry about the younger guys that were way behind him being much closer after his wasted year. 10. I'd look for a 4th outfielder/rightly platoon with LaRoche and starting and bullpen pitcher reclamation projects. But I also think the Sox might come up with another major surprise during the season. The only reason I think this is that Hahn and Williams do not like to sit still.

As we approach Spring Training, a lot of things are set for the Sox. We know our top 3 starting pitchers. Eaton, Cabrera, Abreu, LaRoche, Garcia, Gillaspie, Ramirez, and Flowers are all pretty set as starters. Robertson is our closer. Duke and Jennings have strengthened our bullpen. Bonafacio is making the team in some capacity. So what hasn't been answered? Here are 10 questions that need to be answered. 1. Who's going to emerge as our starting second baseman? Sanchez, who ended last season there? Micah Johnson, the speedy lefty? Bonafacio, who's probably better in a utility role? Saladino, who's coming off injury? Or even Gordon Beckham, in a bid for the Sox to torture us once again after we thought we were done with him? 2. Who is going to stick at backup catcher? Soto? Brantly? Nieto? Kottaras? 3. Will Jesse Crain be healthy enough to help us this year? Will Nate Jones? (This is a two-fer.) 4. How will the Sox deploy Carlos Rodon? Will he stay in the minors long enough to give another season of control? When will his major league debut be? Will be in the bullpen, or as a starter? Will he displace Nieto or Danks if he starts? 5. Gillaspie and LaRoche don't hit lefties very well. Who subs for them? Seems like Bonafacio and Beckham are both candidates to platoon with Gillaspie. But what about LaRoche? 6. Who is going to be our 4th (or 5th) outfielder (assuming Bonafacio will also sub in the outfield a fair amount). 7. How does the rest of the bullpen shake out behind Robertson and Duke? 8. Will these players all be healthier this year? Adam Eaton? 123 games. Avisail Garcia? 46 games. Jose Abreu? 145 games. Chris Sale? 26 games, 174 innings. 9. Will guys like Matt Davidson and Eric Johnson get their careers back on track to where they can be seen at least as future help, if not being ready to help this year? 10. Who else are the Sox going to add to help the club in 2015? Answer all 10, or pick and choose which ones you like, or add some others. Should be an interesting season!

It's amazing how much discussion there is about Dayan Viciedo ... That being said, I think he's going to make the roster this year as a 5th outfielder, RH sub at DH against lefties, and insurance in case something were to happen to Avisail Garcia again. As bad as Viciedo is, he's not that much worse than Garcia was last year. And the Sox have no one else who could step in and play the season as a fill-in starter if necessary. I think the Sox are still hoping Viciedo does as well as he did in 2012, or better. At that rate, aside from the defensive liability, which will be eliminated by having him DH mostly, he would be acceptable. Still too pricey, but acceptable, and better than anything else the Sox have at the moment.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 5, 2015 -> 02:43 PM) I believe it is possible in the same sense that Hector Noesi could win the Cy Young this year; that it's an entirely plausible possibility because he pitches for a MLB team and is virtually assured of a spot in a starting rotation. What limits it's likelihood is the fact that Hector Noesi is not a very good starting pitcher. Yes, Scherzer to the Sox is a possibility in that he is a good pitcher and he is a free agent. That he is going to cost an astronomical amount of money and will require a minimum of a 6 year deal and very likely a 7 year deal (or more) and that the Sox have never signed a pitcher to a contract that exorbitant in their history and likely won't for quite some time now makes it a virtual impossibility. I wouldn't be surprised is Scherzer's multi-year demands are not met by any team, leaving him to consider a one-year deal and re-try. In that scenario, I could see the Sox in the mix, as we would have the lowest draft pick loss of any team, and would be sure to get back a higher one when Scherzer isn't re-signed. Still a longshot. But not impossible.

QUOTE (WBWSF @ Jan 4, 2015 -> 12:12 PM) Hahn has definitely upgraded the team this off season. Still, if the White Sox are going to contend for a playoff spot in 2015, the team needs another starting pitcher. Noesi and Danks are not going to get the team into the playoffs. Hopefully Hahn can get the team another starter before opening day. I think Hahn and the Sox are counting on Rodon becoming that starting pitcher for at least some of 2015. That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see him begin in the bullpen, to save his innings until later so he could start games till the end of the season if he did well. No one else is worth the money they are asking as free agents, so I doubt the Sox go that route. And any trade would cost prospects Hahn has taken pains to protect.