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Everything posted by VAfan
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Another blown save tonight by Bellisario. After a long stretch of appearances where he gave up no runs. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id...onald-belisario Since he's been the closer, he's had only one scoreless appearance in 5 tries. Webb, on the other hand, has been scored on in only 5 of 19 appearances all year, and only 3 times since his first two appearances of the season. Yes, his WHIP is higher than others, but he's done a very good job of not being scored on. You could make a case for Petricka, who's been scored on only 4 times all season in 22 appearances, with a better WHIP and ERA than Webb. Both seem better than Putnam, who's been scored on 4 times in 15 appearances. But, please, don't keep trotting Bellisario out there. He doesn't pitch nearly as well as closer as he did as a set-up guy.
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The kid's too young to get the 9th inning jitters, like Lindstrom and Bellisario have. Not much more needs to be said. The only question is when will Robin Ventura realize that this is his best option, and it's not even that close. Maybe Nate Jones could be considered if and when he comes back and re-establishes himself. But that doesn't seem on the immediate horizon. In the meantime, the Sox cannot afford to lose winnable games like today's, because when we get to the end of the season, it's likely the Sox will either make the playoffs as a wildcard, or be within a few of these losses of doing so.
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Who hired the new hitting coach? If it's Hahn, that has to be added to the list as a HUGE positive. However, I agree with the person who didn't like the Ventura extension. Living in Virginia, I don't get to see that many games. But in the games I've seen, as often as not I felt Ventura really blew the game management to the point of helping LOSE the game. What's amazing to me is the Hahn has put in place the position players who could compete, with the major need now the revamping of the pitching staff. Since the Sox have tended to be better at developing pitchers than position players, this is an excellent approach. C - Tyler Flowers new hitting success makes him a viable option at catcher. 1B - covered with Abreu for 6 years of his prime. 2B - a possibly rejuvenated Gordon Beckham, and several options nearly ready behind him SS - still have Ramirez, who is experiencing an offensive resurgence. One of the best SS in the game 3B - Conor Gillaspie adds a necessary LH bat, and we have a power hitting righty who is nearly ML ready LF - Dayan Viciedo may have started to figure it out offensively. CF - Eaton, IF he can stay healthy, is a fantastic sparkplug leadoff guy RF - Avisail Garcia is still very young, but has potential to round out a solid outfield DH - Adam Dunn is not as bad as most of us make him out to be. We need a lefty power bat here if Dunn is gone next year. Hahn's additions are: Abreu, Eaton, Avi, Gillaspie, and some depth. The hitting coach gets some credit for the improvement of: Ramirez, Viciedo, Flowers, Beckham, and possibly Dunn. For that, we gave up Peavy, Rios, Santiago, Reed. Konerko came back for a fraction of his prior deal.
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Beckham feels no added pressure from Semien/Johnson
VAfan replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Just for clarity sake, I'm not defending Beckham. My point is that I think the Sox will continue giving him the chance to play and see if he can't take these small stretches of very solid offense and turn it into a full-season stretch of offense that makes him worth keeping. He's definitely in a "prove it" situation, and with the guys behind him, whether he feels any added pressure or not, he almost certainly knows it. Seems like the Sox are in a win-win situation finally. Either Beckham turns it on and becomes the player we all hoped he'd be when he was drafted, or he peters out again and we have Semien and then Micah Johnson in the wings to improve our 2B production. -
Beckham feels no added pressure from Semien/Johnson
VAfan replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I was thinking of posting on Gordon Beckham with the title: Gordon Beckham: Have We All Given Up On Him Too Soon?? But since this thread already exists, I'll post it here. We only have a VERY TINY sample size, but these are Beckham's May numbers. 54 7 17 2 0 3 6 2 1 6 0 0 .315 .351 .519 .870 Aren't these the kind of numbers that we all HOPED we might get from Gordon Beckham when we drafted him? We also saw these numbers pre-all-star game in 2013. Pre All-Star 158 19 53 9 1 2 13 6 1 26 5 1 .335 .357 .443 .800 Again, not a very big sample. Plus, we all know that you can put up a lot of horrible hitting stats for Beckham to counteract these. But I just wonder whether Gordon Beckham might be a late bloomer as a hitter. We can see how our new hitting coach has helped the approach of other guys in our lineup, like Viciedo, Flowers, and Ramirez. Why not Beckham? I think the White Sox are still hopeful that Beckham will become the player they thought they had when they drafted him in the first round many years ago, and they are going to give him this year to prove it. Accordingly, unless he tanks again, I don't think he'll be traded this year. I think they'll give him a full year, and decide whether to keep him another season or move him in the offseason. There may be a growing backlog of second basemen in the system, but I think the Sox will want the best player available at each slot, regardless of cost. If that turns out to be Gordon Beckham, he may remain in Chicago far longer than any of us expected. -
I think the odds of the Sox trading Ramirez this season are almost nil. 1. The Sox may be out of the AL Central race at some point, given the Tigers pitching, but they aren't likely to be out of the wildcard race at any point where a trade could still logically be made. 2. You don't trade a guy who's playing above his contract, where the Sox have no one who could come close to replacing his production, offensively OR defensively. To trade Ramirez, in other words, is to CREATE A HOLE, when the object of moves is to FILL HOLES. 3. Trading the Cuban would send a very bad message. The Sox have several Cubans now, and with Jose Contreras and El Duque, had several other Cubans recently. This is a plus for the team. We got Abreu for a bargain. Would he have signed with the Sox without that Cuban connection? Would Viciedo have signed? This would not be a good baseball move. The Sox aren't so poor that they need to unload Ramirez's contract. And it would be very bad for fan enthusiasm. It's really a HORRIBLE idea.
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The other factor here is that Dunn would likely give the Sox a discount, given how badly he played for them over a significant part of his current contract. Which might make his next contract a bargain, believe it or not.
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BTW -- not sure many responses understood I'm not pushing for Dunn to be back. It's more like a warning -- get ready guys, because not only is he not likely to be dumped at the trade deadline (Sox will have to be out of playoff chances by then) -- but given the likely limited options for LH power DH/LF free agent bats who would sign with the Sox next year, Dunn is very likely to remain one of those options. Sure, Viciedo might be a better DH option. But then the Sox would need a LH power-hitting free agent left fielder ready to sign with them. Going into next year, the Sox are overloaded with right handers: Abreu, Ramirez, Viciedo (assuming he beats out DeAza), Garcia, Semien (assuming Beckham is dealt), Flowers (assuming he continues to hit reasonably well), and Davidson (if he overtakes Gillaspie). We have only one certain LH bat in the lineup - Adam Eaton. That leaves DH/LF. It HAS to be a LH power bat. Even if Gillaspie is kept on in a part time role, the Sox have to have a power lefty. I'm just saying that Dunn is going to be in the mix. Not that I want it. I just think it's very likely.
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Here's a post to try to win "Mr. Popularity" on this site -- NOT -- LOL!! I've already posted a thread about how I think the Sox may be buyers, not sellers, at the deadline this year. It depends on them still being within range of contending for a playoff appearance this season. And with the tight AL Central and the Sox new offense, that seems very possible. So I thought I'd double down on a bit of counter-thinking, by suggesting that Adam Dunn might be back next year on a more reasonable contract -- something like $8-10 million -- for a shorter period -- like 2 years. (If the Sox could get him for less than that, it would be even more likely that he'd return.) My thinking is this: 1. The Sox will need a lefty power bat to support this new offense. 2. Other than Dunn, the Sox do not have a lefty power bat on the team or in their system who could step in next year. 3. Who else is going to be available to fill this void? The player has to be a proven DH, better than Dunn, or close to Dunn and cheaper, who is willing to sign with the Sox. As much as we've all hated Adam Dunn, he's not hitting like 2011 any more. This year, he's putting up a line very similar to the ones he put up in Washington in 2009 and 2010, which caused the Sox to sign him in the first place. At this point, there are too many ifs to draw a reasonable bead on this situation. A. We don't know how well Dunn is going to hit over the rest of the year. B. We don't know who else might be available as a free agent lefty DH (or left fielder, if Viciedo is moved to DH). C. We don't know if the Sox will play well enough over the rest of the year to make having a short-term power hitting lefty DH make sense. But it's still a worthy topic of debate. Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating for the Sox to keep Dunn. I'd rather have a better alternative. I'm just not sure the Sox are done with Dunn (any more than they were done with Konerko after last year).
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Will Sox be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline?
VAfan replied to VAfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (beautox @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 08:55 PM) the sox should be selling high on a resurgent Dunn and Ramirez if it brings back a solid return. Its always better to trade a year to early than a year to late and if Alexei is on pace for a 3.5-4WAR season there is no better time than cash in the chips with him, Especially with the log jam of MI prospects behind him. Ramirez is only 32. At the moment, he's the second best SS in MLB, behind only Tulowitski. No one you mentioned can replace his value. The Sox should certainly develop the player who will take Ramirez's slot when he's done playing at a high level, but that's likely to take the very years that Ramirez is still signed for. The Sox have always wanted to contend for the playoffs while they rebuild. With Ramirez, they can. Without him, they can't. -
Will Sox be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline?
VAfan replied to VAfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (RockRaines @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 09:21 PM) Believing in resigning Dunn stops your entire post from being realistic. Adam Dunn has no spot in this organization past this summer. Maybe yes and maybe no. But it's no less realistic than the idea of signing Chris Davis from the O's as a free agent. That's a total pipe dream. The way I look at it is: 1. The Sox are going to need a left handed power bat next year. 2. They don't have anyone on their team (other than Dunn) or in the minors who can possibly fill that void next year. 3. That means they will need to get someone. 4. What are the options going to be? Give me 3 names more likely than Dunn who are lefty power hitters, ready to play DH all year, with better numbers than Dunn puts up by the end of this season. Obviously, no one can fill that in yet, because there are unknown variables in there. I'm just putting it out there that Adam Dunn is going to be one of those possibilities. Gag and wretch if you want. I've done plenty of that myself watching Dunn these last few years. I just think the Sox don't look at Dunn as the 2011 version. -
Will Sox be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline?
VAfan replied to VAfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 09:20 PM) Davidson? Yes, of course. -
Will Sox be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline?
VAfan replied to VAfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
From Rick Hahn today. Seems to support the thrust of my thread... (Lots of ifs in here - which I agree with. Sox have to continue hitting and playing well. But "if" they do, I expect us to be buyers, not sellers, at the deadline.) If the White Sox continue to play impressive baseball as they have over the first 27 games this season, general manager Rick Hahn and the White Sox front office will have an important decision to make. Their reshaping program that began last season was aimed at sustaining long-term success and winning multiple championships, not just providing a quick fix. But if Hahn's '14 squad proves to be a viable contender, not fool's gold with a hot start as Hahn discussed as a barometer during Spring Training, then the White Sox might have to part with some of that young nucleus to supplement a current playoff push. It's a balancing act, according to Hahn, who truly appreciates how sacred the chances are to win World Series titles along with White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf and executive vice president Ken Williams. "We are still very early in the season. We are still getting to know our own club," Hahn told MLB.com on Tuesday. "We are still dealing with some health issues, both ones we already have dealt with and others that inevitably will spring up. We are still getting to know the rest of the division and the league and what they will look like. "Should we get to the point one month, two months from now, where we are in this thing and we are forcing the issue in terms of a chance to win, where we feel like we have a legitimate chance to win, we absolutely will look at ways to improve those chances in '14. Would we mortgage the future to do that? Probably not. "It really is a balancing act," Hahn said. "You don't want to pass on a chance to win. They are sacred. At the same time, this is a long-term proposition we are trying to build here, sustain over an extended period, and we don't want to hamper our ability to do that." Hahn believes that if the White Sox are in a position to conceivably win sooner than others expect, it will be because of the performance of players who will be with the White Sox for an extended period. He also believes the organization has positions of depth, where even if they aren't looking to move young players, those needed to bring back veteran commodities in return, they have the depth in those areas to fill in if the move is necessary. As for having money to spend in July, the White Sox haven't gotten to that point yet. "Let's put it this way," Hahn said. "Over my now entering 14 years here, when we've had a chance to win, there have been resources available to augment and improve those chances. We haven't had the conversation yet in terms of how much we would need economically much less where exactly we would spend it." -
Will Sox be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline?
VAfan replied to VAfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Ideas in this thread I think are just WRONG. 1. Sox will trade Alexei Ramirez. This isn't happening. Ramirez is a key building block on a playoff caliber team. If you trade him, you've taken a major step backward. There is no one on the club or in the minors who could possibly take his place, and no team is going to trade us a young Alexei Ramirez for the older Alexei Ramirez. I expect the Sox to ride him as long as he's playing well. I believe that he's also been a factor is luring other talented Cubans to the team, which cannot be underestimated. 2. Sox will trade Adam Dunn at the deadline. This is still possible if the Sox collapse, but the premise of my thread is that is less likely to happen than continued contention in the tight AL Central. If you look at Dunn's line so far, he's hitting as well as he has in many years -- really at the level that led the Sox to sign him in the first place. As the only power lefty in the Sox lineup, I don't see the Sox letting him go this year, since there is no alternative available. Indeed, here's an idea I may float in its own thread -- if Adam Dunn completes the year with a line like he has so far, and had in 2009 and 2010 for Washington, or even 2012 for the Sox -- I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox brought him back on a two-year deal for less money - say $8-10M/year. And I think Dunn would happily sign for that to be part of an up-and-coming team. We have all had our limit of Adam Dunn, but you can't deny that the numbers he is putting up at the moment make him a valuable part of our new lineup. My view is that the Sox will tinker around the edges during the season in an attempt to improve this year and beyond. They might trade Beckham because they have the replacement on the roster. They might move DeAza if a better left fielder can be had, or if Jordan Danks is given enough time in the lineup to outplay him. But these are insignificant moves, as neither guy has much value. As I see it, the Sox rebuild among their regulars is mostly complete. Who's a for sure next season? - Abreu 1B - Eaton CF - Garcia RF - Ramirez SS Next level of confidence - Viciedo LF (might DH if we get a lefty power bat who plays a better LF) -- starting the season, this was a huge question, but his new approach puts him solidly in the mix. - Semien 2B -- even with his Ks, it's pretty clear that Semien is going to become our regular 2B. Next level - Davidson/Gillaspie 3B -- this position will be in flux until one of them really establishes himself. - Flowers C -- if Flowers hits reasonably well, he fills the catcher spot That leaves potentially only one slot that needs to be filled - DH (or LF) - with a lefty power bat. If Adam Dunn continues hitting like he has, he'll be a possibility for that spot. I know this is counter to what most guys here have been thinking. But I don't see the Sox as having any major players they can trade at this point -- other than guys who (a) shouldn't be traded because it will create a huge hole, like Alexei Ramirez or (b) wouldn't bring much in return, like Adam Dunn, since he'd only be a short-term rental. The Sox are going to need to finish their rebuilding project by (a) signing a key free agent or two, (b) continuing the development work with guys like Erik Johnson and Webb, © drafting well, and (d) continuing their reclamation project ways to fill in role players. -
Will Sox be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline?
VAfan replied to VAfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that the Sox will be trading quality prospects for short term rentals. I am, however, thinking that if the Sox are in reasonable contention for a playoff spot, they will be looking to add pieces cheaply to give themselves a better shot at actually winning. That would mean, in turn, NOT trading Dunn or John Danks. Everyone else they could trade isn't going to make any difference in the grand scheme of things, one way or the other, with the exception of Alexei Ramirez, who I don't think they'll trade whether or not we're in contention. Now that he seems to have re-discovered his power stroke, he's worth keeping. He may not continue playing like the second best SS in baseball (behind only Troy Tulowitski), but if you traded him, there would be a significant drop off at his position. You don't build a contender by weakening yourself at such a key position. And that's not even factoring in the Cuban connection, which could be very significant. Would Viciedo and Abreu have signed here if Ramirez had been dumped? -
Everyone seems to assume that the Sox are not done unloading contracts, and will be looking to help other teams at the deadline this year by moving major league players for prospects. I'm not so sure that will be true. It's all based on the assumption that the Sox will be out of the AL Central race by July. But why is that necessarily going to happen? The Sox offense looks nothing like it did last season. We have a new hitting coach. We have a stud offensive player in Jose Abreu. We have an excellent lead off hitter in Adam Eaton. We actually have some left handed bats in Gillespie, De Aza, Dunn, Garcia, Nieto, and Danks. Alexei Ramirez has rediscovered his power stroke to go along with his higher average. Dayan Viciedo is hitting better than most of us hoped he could. Tyler Flowers will likely return to earth, but not likely at the pathetic level he showed last year, but at a very reasonable level that suggests the Sox may have a real catcher. Semien's emergence makes Gordon Beckham expendable. We haven't even seen Matt Davidson yet. Even without Avisail Garcia -- the Sox' offense has not collapsed. On the pitching side, things have looked bad, but they seem repairable. Chris Sale should return. Quintana is still solid. John Danks is pitching better than he did the last two years. That leaves two starter holes to fill. But with a solid offense, you may need only league average guys to fill those slots. And the Sox have multiple options. The bullpen is another major concern, but bullpen guys should be relatively easy to pick up. Plus, Jones should get healthy and help stabilize the late-inning group. The Sox have Gordon Beckham to trade at the very least. This seems to me to be a team that could hover around .500 throughout the season. And with every other team in the AL Central at a similar level, it doesn't look like the Tigers or anyone else will run away with the division. If Ken Williams were still the GM, you know he'd be thinking about how to make a run this year. With Rick Hahn, we don't have the same track record. But Hahn hasn't dumped anyone for far-off prospects. He turned Peavy into Garcia, a major-league ready RF. He turned Santiago into Eaton, a major-league ready leadoff guy and CF. He traded Addison Reed for Matt Davidson, an almost-major-league ready 3B. Davidson could still come up this year and supplant Gillaspie at 3rd. The Rios trade was largely a salary dump, but it made way for Avisail Garcia in RF, and gave us a switch-hitting utility infielder. If the Sox were buyers, what would they need? A quality starting pitcher, a couple of bullpen arms, and someone better in the outfield than De Aza or Jordan Danks. That may be all that is required to contend until the end in the AL Central. The Sox won't have to mortgage the future to go this route. Dunn is going to be a free agent anyway, and wouldn't return much as a late-season rental. John Danks is the only other player with a rich contract, but he has shown enough so far that, with a little more improvement, might be worth keeping. Trading Beckham wouldn't be selling, it would be turning an asset where we have a ready replacement into strengthening the team somewhere else. Until the Sox are out of the race, I'm going to think of them as in the race, and hope the Sox act accordingly.
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I couldn't even see the game, but the choices by Ventura make no sense. Webb should be the closer NOW. He's the only relief pitcher who has done his job. Lindstrom should be the 8th inning set up guy. The rest of the guys should cover the 6th-7th, depending on what is needed. Someone who can throw multiple innings should be kept in reserve as the long guy for potential extra inning games, or to use if the starter can't make it through at least 6. Applying that principle to last night's game, Robin would have gone to Lindstrom to start the 8th with a two-run lead and no one on. Let's say he gives up the same run that was allowed by the 4 relievers Robin used. Webb would then have started the 9th. If he blew the save, he could have pitched the 10th. At that point, he would not have been gassed, and you would still have had 4 guys in the pen. Clearly, the Sox are lacking quality relievers. But this is not the first time Robin has burned through multiple relievers just to try to get an out or two before the 9th. Personally, I thought one of the things Ozzie did well was manage the pitching staff. Of course he had a better staff, especially in 2005. But he also used them well. The starters went 100 pitches no matter what they had, and then he went to the bullpen. This kept the pen fresh. I think they had the fewest innings of any team in the majors that year. Or were close.
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Why don't the Sox know how to add lefty bats to their lineup? Of all the new "core" guys they've added, only 1 is a left handed hitter -- Eaton -- and he's replacing one of the few lefties the Sox already had -- De Aza. The Sox have now "filled" all the normal spots usually filled by lefties -- 1B, RF, 3B, LF -- with right handers. The only spot they have left for power hitting lefty is DH, which is currently filled by a lefty power hitter, so when Dunn moves on, we won't be gaining any left handed power. When AJ was here, we had a decent lefty hitter at catcher, but that's pretty rare. So my answer to whether you can win with this core is NO. The Sox need to have more power, a better balance of lefties, and more guys who know how to walk. Until they do, their offense will not be able to compete.
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Will the Sox Eat Salary to Bring More Talent
VAfan replied to CaliSoxFanViaSWside's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 5, 2013 -> 02:26 PM) Baltimore really makes a lot of sense as a location for Dunn Just what I was thinking. -
QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ May 28, 2013 -> 10:43 AM) You do know he had an OPS north of .900 along with 6 HRs and 15 RBI in the time frame I specified, don't you? The point I would make about Dunn is that his power production is just as useful at the bottom of the lineup, because HRs by necessity score runs. But his strike outs just kill any chance of putting together innings where you get a couple of hits, perhaps steal a base, and drive runs in that way. Dunn is next to useless in that capacity, esp. since his walk rate is down. Give me Rios, Viciedo and Gillaspie back to back to back and you've got a chance to score. But what Ventura has done has isolated Rios from anyone behind him who can actually move him over or in with something less than a HR. I would generally agree, however, with the sentiment that the Sox aren't going to be able to compete with Dunn and Konerko not hitting like valuable 4-5 guys. Still, that doesn't excuse the person I blame most in this post -- Robin Ventura. If you think about it, Konerko certainly has no future with the Sox, and once his contract is over, neither does Dunn. So why not move Viciedo and Gillaspie into bigger roles, since they likely have a future with the team that goes beyond this season? As I said, he's playing names, not the players he has before him in 2013. And THAT's BAD MANAGEMENT. It's bad enough, that if he did it all season, I think I'd start looking for someone else to take the helm.
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We all know that Adam Dunn is not hitting well. 164 ABs, .159 .254 .402 .656 -0.5 WAR 64Ks. He's not the worst hitter on the team. Below him with -0.7 WAR is Konerko, and Jeff Keppinger (2 walks) is at -1.2 WAR. What I don't understand is how Robin can trot out a lineup card with Dunn and Konerko in the middle day after day after day. We've played 48 games. Why are these guys still near the top of the lineup? In NFL football, once teams acquire players, they tend to play the best players, regardless of contract or draft pedigree. They don't care who you are, just what you can do on the field. Robin needs to apply some of that to the Sox lineup. In terms of performance in 2013, this is what the Sox lineup should look like. 1. R - Ramirez - .323 OBP, .675 OPS 2. L - De Aza - .712 OPS 3. R - Rios - .885 OPS 4. R - Viciedo - .797 OPS 5. L - Gillaspie - .788 OPS 6. R - Konerko - .658 OPS 7. L - Dunn - .656 OPS 8. R - Flowers/Giminez - .614/.717 OPS 9. R - Greene - .637 OPS When Beckham returns, you could slot him last, but if he hits, move him up. Jeff Keppinger should be a bench player right now. This would be a much more logical lineup. If Dunn and Konerko start to hit better, move them up. For right now, Viciedo and Gillaspie are hitting much better and deserve the 4-5 slots in the order. Why Ramirez over De Aza at the top of the lineup? First, his OBP is much higher, .323 instead of .292. Second, he has 8 steals to De Aza's 5. And with De Aza behind him, if Ramirez get's on second, then De Aza's pull tendencies are helpful to move Ramirez over. Plus, De Aza has 7 HRs to Ramirez's 1. Better to have the power guy up with someone on base. I count the current lineup as a MAJOR strike against Ventura's managing style. He's managing names, not the actual team he has. And it's got to be costing us games. We've scored an AL-worst 177 runs. He's got to do everything he can to squeeze whatever production he can out of this pathetic lineup.
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There used to be serious dialogue on Sox Talk. Let's just say I'm more disappointed in the response to this post than I am in the performance of the White Sox in 2013. Out of 79 replies, I counted about 5 that had anything substantive to say. It's pretty sad.
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Forgive me. It's still early May, but already my mind drifts to the rebuild that is coming soon for the Chicago White Sox. It's the rebuild that Kenny Williams never undertook, because Kenny always wanted to retool and tweak, not rebuild. But Kenny's not the GM anymore. And unless he tries to control Rick Hahn, I think Hahn is not the same guy. He's going to realize soon that more significant changes are going to be necessary before the Sox can compete again. What are the Sox' assets? 1. Sale, Quintana, Santiago. Three young lefties who are cheap and under Sox control for several more years. Quintana hasn't done it for a full season yet, nor has Santiago, but both have pitched enough very good games to be excited about their upside. Chris Sale was a Cy Young candidate his first year as a starter. 2. Alex Rios. By far the Sox best hitter. Not sure how much longer he's tied up, but I expect the Sox will keep him just so they have a quality hitter, and because their young outfielders aren't ready yet. 3. Dayan Viciedo. A young power hitter who still needs to improve plate discipline, but the only other hitter on the team with offensive value. At least potential offensive value. 4. Young bullpen arms. Reed, Jones, Veal, et al. Jones is having a shaky year, but he has the stuff to get it figured out. 5. Alexei Ramirez. Great defensive shortstop. Led AL SS in RBI in 2012 despite a down year for his power numbers. Sox don't have anyone to replace him, so I'd keep him. 6. Conor Gillaspie. A potential everyday third baseman. Lefty bat is sorely needed. Would like him to have more power, but he looks like the best hitter other than Rios on the team right now. These are the guys you are likely to keep during a rebuild. The next rung is guys who might have trade value. 7. Paul Konerko. With his contract up, and his slow start this year to go along with his injury-hampered finish last year, it looks like Paul Konerko's great run in Chicago is going to be over. I really like him because he's the only player to consistently come sign baseballs for my son when we catch the Sox in Baltimore or DC. Classy guy. I'll be sorry to see him go, but it's time to deal him at the deadline. 8. Jake Peavy. I'm torn about this one, mostly because Peavy took a bit of discount to stay in Chicago, and really wanted to help the team. The problem is he's only signed for two years, it's a big contract, he's pitching really well to maximize his trade value, and the Sox aren't like to contend this year or next in a rebuild, so you might as well move him. He's too old and with too much injury history to want to extend past this deal, so he isn't going to be a cornerstone guy when we're good again. But I'm still torn. 9. John Danks. He's going to have to come back and prove he can pitch again, which might not be soon enough for him to have much value as a deadline deal guy. But Chicago has to get out from under his contract. He's just not worth it. As a lefty, he should still have value. 10. Alejandro De Aza. As a center fielder and lead off guy, he should have trade value. Since the Sox have several minor league outfielders who might take his place, he's a candidate to move. Dewayne Wise can fill in until the young guys are ready. 11. Gordon Beckham/Jeff Keppinger. We just signed Keppinger to play third. But it appears that Gillaspie is a better choice there, for a few reasons -- better defender, lefty, better hitter at the moment. When Beckham comes back, the Sox have a choice. Only one of these guys should be in the running for second base; the other should likely be dealt. With Sanchez in the minors, perhaps both will be gone soon. My own take is that Beckham hasn't proven he's worth an elevated contract. I'd give him one last chance to see if he can cut it this year. Sox really needed him to be a young building block. He's got the D, just not the O. Too bad. 12. Matt Thornton and Jesse Crain. These guys will have some value at the trade deadline, and absolutely must be moved. If you are doing a full rebuild, you might as well move Matt Lindstrom too, since he's 33 and could bring something back. Then there is the worthless guy the Sox just need to deal because he's killing the offense. 13. Adam Dunn. The Sox have to hope he pulls out of his tailspin and puts up decent HR and walk totals by the end of July so that someone will take him and at least some of his contract off the Sox hands. If not, the Sox may just need to eat his deal. Because he's death to this team just like he (and Rios) killed us in 2011. It's just a horrible message to everyone else to trot him up to hit clean-up every day. Finally, there are the space fillers who you keep until you have a replacement. 14. Tyler Flowers. He would be an acceptable starting catcher on a team where everyone else could hit. On the weak-hitting Sox, they can't really afford his bat. Still, he could perhaps pull out of his hitting funk, and in the meantime, he's a good defensive catcher on a cheap deal. Even if the Sox upgrade, Flowers might stay on as an above-average backup. 15. Dylan Axelrod Axelrod has pitched very well so far. But he's never going to be much more than he has been -- a fill-in pitcher. Still, there's no reason to dump him until you have something better, since he's cheap and likely has little trade value. It's really pathetic to write such a post on May 8th. The Sox are only 5.5 games out, just 4 games under .500, with very good pitching (4th in the AL), especially now that Santiago has taken Floyd's spot in the rotation. The problem is that the hitting is just horrendously awful -- last in the AL -- 60 runs behind the Tigers in only 31 games. And it's not correctable. Sure, Konerko will hit better than a .646 OPS, Jeff Keppinger is not a Mendoza line hitter, De Aza can hit better, Rios could get hot, and Viciedo could get healthy and add pop to the lineup. But that's a lot of ifs. Even if all that happened, we aren't catching the Tigers or any wild card contender. We have 7 regulars with OBPs below .300 -- Keppinger, Viciedo, Dunn, Flowers, Konerko, De Aza, and Ramirez. Only Gillaspie and Rios among the regulars get on base at a respectable pace. But what's the main reason for a rebuild? It's because Konerko is done, and so is Adam Dunn. We need studs to replace both of them, and even then we'd need better complementary pieces to compete. We really need to get away from the low average, low OBP, high strike-out power guys. Power is nice, especially in US Cellular, but it's not everything. Our offense needs to be much more well-rounded. Guys with pop, OBP AND average, like Paul Konerko in his good years, or Rios after he sorted out his hitting stance. If you made these deals, and also took Floyd off the books, the Sox would suddenly have a lot of money available. And with a young pitching core, could potentially rebound reasonably quickly. So, while this is WAY TOO EARLY -- feel free to rip me for it -- just save this and return to it in July when the firesale may commence.
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Adam Dunn is certainly back to his horrible 2010 ways with a batting average below .200 and a major drop-off in walks from last year. I totally agree that he should be moved down in the lineup. And whatever he's doing to lower his walk total -- by being more aggressive at the plate -- isn't upping his contact rate or his hits rate. So he should just go back to being a HR/walk guy with a decent OBP. At least that way he'll make fewer outs. But the problem is not limited to Adam Dunn. The Sox have multiple guys with all-or-nothing approaches. Dayan Viciedo and Tyler Flowers, for example. And so far, Jeff Keppinger has been stinking it up as well. Why not field a lineup with all the contact guys at the top, and the thumpers at the bottom? DeAza Gillaspie Rios Konerko Ramirez Keppinger Dunn Viciedo Flowers Why not reward players who are actually hitting the baseball with higher positioning in the ilneup, and demote those who are stinking it up? If they start hitting the ball, they can move up. Lefty-righty is less important than hitting/not hitting.
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Lots of comments on Alexei bunting, but to me that wasn't the worst of the choices I laid out. Here's my ranking: 1. Letting Axelrod pitch to Harper (and then Zimmerman) in the Washington game. Led to 3 runs and the game. Santiago had a very good chance of getting Harper out, as he struck out LaRoche on 3 pitches when he came in. 2. Pitching around Kipnis and pitching to Swisher with Jesse Crain. Also directly cost the game. 3. Having Alexei bunt. This just reduced the odds of the Sox scoring. We still might have lost. 4. Bringing Crain in. Crain should be more reliable than he has been.