VAfan

I live in Virginia, hence my screen name, so I don't get to watch that many Sox games. We get WGN here, but I don't sign up for anything more. I also take my son to at least one Sox game every year, either in Washington, or Baltimore. (He gets someone to toss him a batting practice ball and then gets guys to sign. This time, he got Konerko, Sale, Viciedo, and Sanchez. Pretty good haul.) I went to Thursday's game in DC, then watched last night's game in Cleveland on WGN. Both games, in my opinion, were "lost" by Robin Ventura's bad game management decisions. Yes, the players play and win or lose the games, but Ventura's decisions put the team in much worse shape than it might have been with different decisions. WASHINGTON GAME 4th inning, game tied 3-3. Axelrod above 90 pitches already, and it's lucky the Nats only have 3 runs. Dan Haren on third, Werth on first. Two outs. Bryce Harper up. In this situation, with Santiago essentially ready in the pen (and if he wasn't ready, he should have been, since he warmed up in the bottom of the third when Washington scored 2 runs), AXELROD HAS TO BE LIFTED FOR SANTIAGO. Axelrod was spent, and the best Washington hitter - a lefty - is up. Game is tied. What happens when Ventura leaves Axelrod in? Wild pitch - 4-3. Intentional walk. Double. 6-3. Game over. After Zimmerman hits the game-winning double, Santiago comes in and blows away LaRoche on three pitches. Sox lose 7-4, the difference being the 3 runs given up when Axelrod was not replaced. CLEVELAND GAME 8th inning, game tied 0-0. Connor Gillaspie hits a leadoff double. Next guy up is Ramirez, who has one of the 5 hits off Masterson. After Ramirez you have AUTO-OUT Gimenez, and then DeAza. In this situation, with three batters to try to bring in Gillaspie, your best RBI guy is Ramirez -- BY FAR. He's also had a single on the night. So what does Ventura do? He asks Ramirez to BUNT!???? This is a HORRIBLE decision. First, Ramirez is a horrible bunter. I've seen him bunt into a triple play. Second, as mentioned above, Ramirez is the Sox best chance of getting a hit to bring Gillaspie home. What happens? Ramirez pops the bunt up to the catcher, one out. Gimenez grounds to second, easy out. DeAza is out, threat over. Even if Ramirez is successful bunting Gillaspie over, a pulled in infield would have prevented Gimenez's weak grounder from scoring Gillaspie. So a successful bunt was not the answer here. Having Ramirez swing away was the correct move. But that wasn't the only error Ventura made. The night before, Jesse Crain pitched the 8th in Washington. He gave up multiple hits and an insurance run to Washington. Crain IMHO is no longer a reliable set up guy in a tight game, any more than Matt Thornton is. I consider these vets to be the weak links in the Sox pen, not our strengths. What does Crain do? Give up the winning run to Cleveland. But THAT's not all. Ventura also made the wrong call about who to pitch to in the bottom of the 9th. With Bourn on 3rd and two outs, Ventura had Crain pitch around Jason Kipnis and pitch to Nick Swisher. Kipnis is hitting .125 on the year, while Swisher is hitting .258. And it's not as if this is just some early season aberration. Kipnis has one full year in the majors, while Swisher is THE veteran on Cleveland. Plus, as a former Sox player, Swisher is the most motivated guy in this situation. It's just insane to pitch around Kipnis and let Swisher beat us. TWO GAMES. TWO SOX LOSSES. 4 BAD MANAGERIAL MOVES. Recap: 1. Left in Axelrod when he was toast and Santiago was ready. Cost 3 runs. 2. Had Ramirez bunt with man on second and no one out in 8th inning of 0-0 game. Gimenez on deck. Scoring chance blown. 3. Had Jesse Crain start the bottom of the 9th of 0-0 game with everyone but Thornton available. 4. Had Jesse Crain pitch around Jason Kipnis to face Nick Swisher with two outs and winning run at 3rd. Admittedly a small sample size, those these aren't my only beefs. I'd add in the decision to have Dunn hit ahead of Konerko (on another thread) as another of my beefs with Ventura. I'm not calling for Ventura's head here. There was a lot of stability and sense of calm he brought to the team that helped us win last year. I just wish he'd make better moves. What do you think? Is Ventura a good game manager?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 10, 2012 -> 10:37 AM) Upgrading the pen with a more experienced arm isn't a bad thing, but it should be way down the list of priorities. I disagree. I posted something awhile back arguing that the bullpen is likely the place where the Sox could make the biggest difference between 2012 and 2013. I think our bullpen lost 23 games, 10 by Thornton alone. The Tigers were almost as bad, but Oakland, Baltimore, NY, and Texas were all far better. You could argue that the difference between the Oakland and Baltimore pens and the Los Angeles and Tampa pens put the former in the playoffs and kept the latter two teams out. Most of the rest of the team is set at this point. If you added a veteran arm who might close, you could jettison Thornton and use the young guys to set up, especially now that they have a year under their belts.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 11, 2012 -> 12:09 AM) If you're looking to package players together, you trade Viciedo; if you're looking to acquire a player in a straight one for one swap, you deal De Aza; if you are looking for a prospect or two, you deal Rios. How are the Sox going to compete offensively in 2013 if they deal Rios for a prospect or two? Rios was their most consistent hitter, by far. Prospects, by definition, are not ready to produce right now.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 08:10 PM) This thread begs the question of "what do the Sox need the most?" I would say it's not just in acquiring bodies. This is what we need the most in order to be a team that could finish 20 games over .500. Because of Flowers' great arm I won't say the Sox's biggest need is catcher. 1.) we need a third baseman who can hit and is able to field better than Youk, who was no Brent Morel with the glove. 2.) We need Floyd and Danks to be healthy all year long. The re-signing of Peavy means we do not have to acquire another starter if my first sentence comes true. 3.) We need Viciedo to emerge as a special hitter while repeating the year he had with the glove. We won't win anything with him being the Viciedo of last year. 4.) We need a reliable righthanded reliever, somebody named Joaquim Soria, although I realize that ship has sailed. Somebody just like Soria. Gotta get one. We also could use a reliever NOT NAMED Crain and Thornton, to become RELIABLE. I think our closer is fine for 3-4 more years until his arm falls off, the malady affecting most all closers. 5.) We need Beckham to hit better. There are too many nights our big boppers have pop-up-itis or strikeout itis. We just have to have a decent hitting second baseman to be legitimate contenders. Those are my list of needs for the team. I think they are fair. I'll add a few to this list. 6. We need Paul Konerko to stay healthy and hit like the monster he was early in the year, not the declining out-maker he was the second half. 7. We need Adam Dunn to hit his weight -- .285. Ok, that's not going to happen. I'll take .240, with the same power and walks as last year. I'd also like Robin to drop him to 5th. 8. We need Rios to repeat his 2012 performance. 9. We need Jose Quintana to repeat his pre-All Star form (4-1, 2.04 ERA), not his post-All Star form (2-5, 5.01 ERA). 10. We need to replace Matt Thornton in the pen. He's 6-15 the last two years, with 8 blown saves. If we played .500 in the games Thornton decided last year, we would have ended the season tied with the Tigers.

I didn't realize until I looked how many games Wise started after he came over from the Yankees. Some of this was because De Aza went on the DL within a few days of Wise's arrival. But even after De Aza returned, Wise kept getting starts. From August 11, when he came over, until October 3, Wise started 38 out of 51 games, and he didn't play in only 6 games. De Aza missed 25 games in this stretch, Viciedo missed 7 games, Rios missed 2 (last 2). In that same stretch, Jordan Danks played in only 18 games. And he only received at bats in 8 of them. (18 ABs, 2 hits.) I think Wise proved he was a servicable 4th outfielder in that stretch of games. His average is not high, and he doesn't walk much, but he hits with a little power, showed some clutch ability, ran very well, and fielded well. What more do you want for 700k?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 06:47 PM) I agree with that -- the pen could have been much better and it includes bigger holes that would be easier to upgrade than those in the rotation/lineup, 3B notwithstanding. I wonder, though, how much of that bullpen performance can be efficiently improved through acquisition, given how volatile RP performance tends to be from year to year. I'm afraid the Sox could pay up big (either in cash or prospects) for a couple guys coming off good years who are nearly as likely to flop as to dominate, when their current pen may not actually be facing much worse odds. This is interesting: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 Just using the Orioles/Sox comparison, their bullpens produced 6.4 and 3.6 WAR, respectively. So, that basically means that those values were the average amount of marginal wins that those teams' bullpens would produce given their numbers in the current run environment. Obviously, the reality is context driven and much was different, as the Orioles pen ended up winning them many more than 6 games. But, numbers-wise, that pen's performance was only a 2-3 wins better than Chicago's on average, which is the way you have to look at it if you want to project success, since you can't predict context. I think what this shows is that the bullpen can really save you or kill you whether it's good or bad, depending on how situations and events play out. This is just an area that's really difficult to predict and thus very risky to invest in. The range of outcomes may be very similar whether the Sox go in with the league-average-ish pen they have now or with a costly one based on guys that were good last year. It's just a scary place to put your resources, and I think I'd be more comfortable rolling this year's crop out than taking that type of a gamble. I'd rather see those resources put toward 3B/C/SP, even if the money won't go quite as far. Appreciate the fangraphs link. I agree about the risk of investing in bullpen arms. Matt Thornton's current contract is a horrible investment, for example. He was great until he signed it. Since then, he hasn't been able to close, and he lost 10 games out of the pen this year. Still, I think if there were a more experienced "closer" available that wouldn't break the bank, he might be the perfect addition. We went into 2011 with Thornton as the closer, and that didn't work. We went into this year with Santiago as the closer, and that didn't work. Reed emerged, but is he really solid? Fangraphs rates him at 0.9 WAR, with Nate Jones and, ironically, Matt Thornton ahead of him. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 I would just like to see the Sox have a real plan. This season the bullpen seemed like an afterthought, and it cost us. I also think Robin didn't do the best job managing them.

Let me throw some more stats here to sort out the difference between the 32-11 Baltimore pen and the Sox 25-25 pen. Games entered with the lead: Baltimore 218, Sox 219. Games entered with a tie: Baltimore 78, Sox 82. Games entered behind: Baltimore 196, Sox 165. So, Baltimore's bullpen did have more chances to win games, because they entered more games when Baltimore was trailing. But, if they didn't do a better job of holding the other team, Baltimore -- which scored 712 runs to the Sox 748 runs -- wouldn't have been able to win 7 more games in relief. As for the losses in relief, Baltimore entered the game with the lead as often as the Sox bullpen pitchers did, and only slightly fewer times in a tie game. This does not explain the difference in losses -- 11 for Baltimore, 25 for the Sox. Baltimore's pen clearly did a better job of giving the O's a chance to win games, and blew far fewer games. The Sox pen needs to be better in 2013 for us to compete.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 06:26 PM) Don't really care about 3 or 4 or 5 years ago. But the point is true, chances are Floyd will give you more innings, the question is how many less would BMac give you. Assuming they are better innings, if he works for less money, and you can get something useful for Floyd, you can live with fewer innings as long as its still a,decent nimbler. I'm not sure you can assume McCarthy even gives you better innings in US Cellular. He wasn't any better than Floyd in Texas. For example, in 2007, he started 22 games, pitched 101 innings, with a whip of 1.56 and an era of 4.87. In 2009, he started 17 games, 97 innings, whip 1.36 and era 4.62. Since becoming a full-time starter, Gavin Floyd hasn't had any year as bad as those two McCarthy years.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 06:26 PM) Right but now Floyd has elbow issues. His lowest season was his most recent. McCarthy missed most of last season with a freak head injury, which would have to be considered not to be a long-term issue if someone is willing to sign him. I don't think career innings makes sense here, I think we have to look at the situation and see how likely it is to be a problem going forward. Brain surgery doesn't concern you at least as much as a first-time elbow issue? This is one area where neither of us have enough information to evaluate the health of the respective players. However, I strongly disagree about discounting career innings. McCarthy is just not a proven full-time starter, despite only 1 less year in the league than Gavin Floyd. Floyd has done it 5 years in a row. In US Cellular.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 06:24 PM) I'm not saying that the Baltimore pen wasn't better, I'm just saying that looking at W-L is a bad way to tell because W-L is a proxy, not a measure of isolated performance. How much more/less run support did the Baltimore bullpen get? What was the difference in leverage index? Which teams did they beat and which did they lose to? If you want to compare the bullpens, you should look at how their pitchers actually performed. Fair enough. I'm not saying my analysis is the most sophisticated one available. However, I do think my point is still salient. The Sox need much better bullpen performance if they want to contend next year, and this is probably the area where the most difference could be made, since the rotation and lineup seem pretty set.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 06:16 PM) If he could give you 170 innings, he is most likely an upgrade from Floyd, but he could give you less than 100 and no one would or at least should be surprised. I guess if they do sign him, it will be Herm's big job in 2013, I don't even trust him as an upgrade over 170 innings, which I would consider unlikely. The main reason is that he's only been good in Oakland. When he pitched in Texas, he wasn't any better than Floyd, even at markedly fewer innings per year. Gavin Floyd is an enigmatic pitcher. For stretches, he's horrible. But for other stretches, he's the best pitcher the Sox have -- better than Peavy, almost as good as Sale. For the money we've signed him for, I hope the Sox give Floyd one more chance to put together a season made up of more of the good stretches than the bad ones. His upside seems pretty significant to me, whereas about the worst we get is a guy who eats innings, wins in double figures, but also loses about as often as he wins. For a 4th or 5th starter, that's a lot better than we might get if we cut him loose.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 05:58 PM) Right, that's why hopefully the Sox jump on it. If you get that deal done, you increase Gavin's market. The advantage that the Sox have is that they're already $9.5m into that 4th pitching slot, whereas many other teams may be looking to guarantee less than that to McCarthy. So the Sox could feasibly pay him up to that much money if they're confident they can move Floyd. Ideally, they want to save what they can, but they gain the Floyd haul even if the money is a wash. I'll reply here as well. McCarthy is not a reliable replacement for Floyd. In 7 seasons, he's averaging less than 100 IPs per year (654 innings total since 2005). Floyd has pitched 1127 innings since 2004. Both guys are 29 (Floyd is older by 6 months.).

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 06:02 PM) Sure it does. If the starting rotation is bad, the bullpen inherits fewer leads to blow in addition to more innings. More innings leads to more chances to regain the lead and take a win, fewer chances to blow a lead and take a loss. That's the problem with context stats, you can't reduce the variables enough to determine causality. So, let's see if I have this right. The Baltimore bullpen finished 32-11 w-l in relief because their starting staff gave them more chances, and in most of those games they were already behind. But that's not better than the Sox bullpen, which finished 25-25 w-l in relief, even though the Sox starters were better and so turned over more games where we were ahead or tied? To my way of looking at it, to get to 32-11, the Baltimore bullpen had to pitch well enough for the team to rally to victories 32 times, and had to hold on when they did catch up enough to lose only 11 games. Both numbers indicate significantly better bullpen performance than the Sox' got, which lost 25 times when it was handed a lead or a tie. If someone wanted to do the game-by-game breakdown, I think it would bear this out.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 04:36 PM) My biggest worry is that if the Sox sign McCarthy, teams will KNOW that we need to unload Gavin and will lowball offers. Would be nice to be able to get both deals worked out at the exact same time though I realize that's difficult to pull off. I would not want to replace Gavin Floyd in our rotation with Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy has one season of 170 IPs. Next highest is 111. Then 102. The FEWEST innings Gavin Floyd has pitched in the last 5 years is this year's 168, which happened because of his elbow issues. Otherwise it's 193, 187, 193, 206. McCarthy is not a reliable season-long starter. Plus, McCarthy has very significant home-away split differences. At the Oakland Coliseum, his ERA is in the mid-2's. Away, in 2011 it was 3.99, in 2012 it was 3.66. Meanwhile, over the last two years, pitching at US Cellular has hurt Floyd's stats. So, if McCarthy were cheap, he might be good insurance in case: Danks' return is delayed, or Quintana/Santiago don't pitch as well out of the 5th spot as they did this year. He is no replacement for Gavin Floyd, however. At least not a reliable one.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 04:28 PM) Part of the reason Baltimore's bullpen won a ton of games is because their rotation was a complete joke nearly all season. Their bullpen was snatching wins up that most team's starters would have been getting. Secondly, the volatility or RP performance from year to year is a reliable condition, and it makes it very risky and almost always bad to spend a lot of resources on depth guys there. You'd like to have an anchor or two, but the rest of it is just a crapshoot. You need cheap talent there, and we have it already. This might explain Baltimore's wins. It does not explain Baltimore's AL-low 11 bullpen losses. That's the stat worth paying attention to. Baltimore's bullpen blew almost no games, and gave the team whatever time it needed to come back to win games.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 08:28 PM) We're using win-loss record for bullpen analysis? Yikes... I consider the loss column to be much more important for the bullpen than the win column. For wins, the team has to rally from behind or a tie. But losses mean the bullpen was given the lead or tie but couldn't hold it. The Sox bullpen lost 25 games. Next worst was the Tigers at 23, then Tampa Bay 21, LA 20, NY 17, Texas 14, Oakland 14, O's 11. That's a 14-game difference from the O's, who won only 8 more games than us. An 11 game difference from the A's and Texas, who won 9 and 8 more games. An 8 game difference from NY, who won 10 more games. A 5 game difference from LA, who won 4 more games. A 4 game difference from Tampa, who won 5 more games. A 2 game difference from Detroit, who won 3 more games. I think you can make a pretty good case that the Sox' difference in bullpen losses is one of the primary reasons we missed the playoffs this year. I can also "guarantee" that if the Sox bullpen loses 25 games again in 2013, we will have no chance of making the playoffs. The Sox have to get the bullpen losses down. The question is how to do that? I'm all for keeping Reed, and Veal, and Jones. Personally, I would find a way to trade Matt Thornton, who didn't just melt down in 2012. He also stunk in 2011. I would give him away if someone would take his contract. I also like the idea of getting a veteran closer. The only one mentioned on this thread has been Brian Wilson. I'm not sure if he's the answer. In 2011 he was 6-4 with 5 blown saves. His stat line that season isn't significantly better than Reed's in 2012, and in some areas it's worse. But if the Sox were able to dump Thornton's salary, then use it towards signing an experienced closer, Reed, Jones, Veal, and Crain would make a more formidable set up crew. Add one more lefty and a long-man and you'd have a nice 7-man bullpen that wouldn't cost too much, but could help us win more games than it lost.

I give props to Kenny for helping the Sox win their only World Series in my lifetime. I also loved how he was always pretty much in "buying" mode. I have never wanted the Sox to junk everyone and try to rebuild. That seldom works well, and no one really wants to endure horrible play during a tear-down process. For example, would you want to be a Kansas City or Cleveland fan? Kenny didn't always get the right guys, but the list of guys who have starred for other teams after he let them go is pretty short. And he was always willing to take risks, and coax Jerry Reinsdorf into opening his checkbook.

The Sox finished 2012 at 85-77, the 8th best record in the AL. They were only 3 games behind the Tigers, but 8 games back in the Wild Card standings. With the rotation already mostly set -- Sale, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and Quintana/Santiago -- and most of the lineup probably set -- De Aza CF, ?? 3B, Dunn DH/1B, Konerko 1B/DH, Rios RF, Viciedo LF, Flowers C, Ramirez SS, Beckham 2B -- where can the Sox make moves to make the most improvement? It has to be the bullpen. Using Baseball Reference, I looked up our bullpen's performance versus the seven teams ahead of us in W-L records. I'm not going to go into a full-blown analysis of pitching data. I'm just focused on two numbers -- wins and losses in relief. Here's how the teams ranked, by wins over losses in relief, then by fewest bullpen losses. Baltimore 32-11 (93 wins overall, +21 bullpen wins) Oakland 30-14 (94, +16 bullpen wins) New York 24-17 (95, +7 bullpen wins) Texas 21-14 (93, +7 bullpen wins) Detroit 25-23 (88, +2 bullpen wins) Chicago 25-25 (85, even) Los Angeles 19-20 (89, -1 bullpen win) Tampa Bay 20-21 (90, -1 bullpen win) According to this analysis, our bullpen had the worst performance out of these 8 teams, racking up 25 losses. The only reason we kept reasonably close to the Tigers was because they were the second-worst, with 23 bullpen losses. LA and Tampa Bay basically missed the playoffs because their bullpens also failed too often. LA was 4 games behind Texas, but 6 behind both Oakland and Texas in bullpen losses. Tampa Bay was 3 games behind Baltimore and Texas for a wild card slot, but was 10 and 7 games back in bullpen losses to those teams. It's also obvious that stellar bullpens propelled the otherwise mediocre Orioles and Athletics to 93 and 94 wins, respectively. Baltimore gained an incredible 21 games out of its bullpen, while Oakland gained 16. So, who were our individual pitching culprits? Axelrod 1-0 Bruney 1-0 Crain 2-3 Jones 8-0 Myers 3-4 Ohman 0-2 Reed 3-2 Santiago 2-1 Septimo 0-2 Stewart 1-1 Thornton 4-10 It's really two culprits -- Matt Thornton -- who lost 10 games out of the bullpen last year, and Brett Myers -- who lost 4 games in relief in much less duty (35 games to Thornton's 74). No one on the Orioles or A's lost more than 2 games in relief. The Yankees had 7-game loser David Robertson. Joe Nathan lost 5 for Texas. The Angels had several guys who lost 2 and 3 games. Farnsworth and Peralta lost 6 each for Tampa Bay. Villareal lost 5, Valverde lost 4, and three others lost 3 each for the Tigers. This seems to me a place where a team could make up significant ground from one season to the next. For example, the O's were 23-21 in relief in 2011, so they gained 9-1/2 games out of their bullpen. Oakland's bullpen turnaround was even more dramatic, from 15-25 in 2011, to 30-14 in 2012, a gain of 13 games (out of a 20-game overall improvement). Now I'm sure that more than just pitching goes into these bullpen records. The team also has to hit well enough to get wins in relief. And the manager has to call on the right pitcher in the right spots. (The Sox, for example, lost one game when Quintana was lifted in LA in the 9th inning of a 1-0 game when he'd thrown under 80 pitches, and Reed quickly surrendered 2 runs and the game.) But when I look at these records, I wonder why teams don't invest more in their bullpens, which seemingly can make the difference between making the playoffs and watching from home. Is there anything the Sox can do to go from 25-25 out of the bullpen to something like 26-15 or better? They absolutely need to have that if they want to contend in 2013.

1. Unload Thornton. His 10 losses were death to this season. 2. Keep Floyd, not Peavy. Peavy pitched just well enough to look good, but not well enough to win games. Floyd may look horrible for stretches, but he also pitches lights out for stretches. I worry about the elbow problems that cut his innings, but we need a solid right-handed starter and would likely have to pay as much for an alternative. 3. Re-sign AJ for two years. At his age, he'll be cheaper than you think. We need lefties for our lineup. 4. Sign Eric Chavez for 3B. He's had a very nice bounce back year for the Yankees, with 16 HRs in 250 ABs. Gives us another lefty power bat with good on-base numbers, which would allow us to unload Dunn. However ... 5. I'm afraid we're likely stuck with Adam Dunn. Not sure the front office will move him after 41 HRs, and not sure there will be any takers. I would trade him in a second, however, if I didn't have to eat any of his contract, and/or if I could get young pitching in return. Baltimore? (If we unload Dunn, we could keep Johnson, though I don't trust him as a full-time player.) 6. Find another right-hander for the rotation. Sale is our frontliner, followed by Danks and Floyd. I see Quintana battling Santiago for the #4 hole, with the loser in the pen. The fifth guy could be a reclamation project like Humber was. 7. Hope ... a) Gordon Beckham figures out how to hit consistently. b) Alexei Ramirez goes back to hitting like 2008 or 2010. c) Paul Konerko stays healthy all year. d) Our bullpen doesn't blow so many games. e) Gavin Floyd's new delivery holds and makes him a consistent pitcher. f) Alex Rios repeats his 2012 season. If the Sox could unload Dunn, it would give them much more financial flexibility. They could spend more on starting pitching, or shore up the bullpen. BUT, my guess is it's not happening. Look at how Baltimore won. By having a lights-out bullpen. Our bullpen, in contrast, was terrible. We could gain 5+ games with better pitching on the back end. Oakland, on the other hand, won with great young starting pitching. We are there with Sale. Possibly there with Quintana/Santiago. We need more of that. Keeping Floyd for his option year is a bridge.

Why not bat Dewayne Wise in that situation? I would have probably had him hit for Alexei, but certainly for Beckham. Is something wrong with Wise? He's been a very clutch hitter for us since coming over.

Hey, the Sox are STILL in first place! That's reason enough to be optimistic. Especially after you knew going into Sunday we were going to lose to the Angels and the Tigers had a double-header at home against the TWINS!! But, lo and behold, the TWINS TOOK TWO AGAINST THE TIGERS!!! Now we come home to face some Cleveland pitching! That's three games that should instantly heal the Sox' pathetic bats. I'm looking for a sweep against the Tribe. And maybe a game gained against the Tigers. Then we've got 4 against the Rays, who we play pretty tough. If we split, we'll almost certainly remain in first. Then it's 3 on the road against the Tribe again. We may need to win only one of those games to do no worse than tie. Two and we're almost certainly in. This isn't the 2005 team that won 16 of its last 17 games on the way to the World Series title. (The only loss was 3-2 to the Angels where if Contreras throws home instead of trying for the DP might not have turned into a loss.) But, like 2005, it's a team no one gave a chance before the season started. We're playing on house money. Why not enjoy it!!

Tonight already, comes up in first with one out, Youk on 3rd, Dunn on second. Pitcher starts him 3-0. On 3-2, weak fly to right not enough to score Youk. In second inning, bases loaded. After two outs De Aza singles, Youk and Dunn both walk. Konerko ends the threat again. If Dunn can play first, I'd rather we have Viciedo DH and have Wise play in LF to rest Paulie some. Konerko looks as bad as I've ever seen him.

Look at these splits for Paulie: April 81 13 31 9 0 5 15 7 2 12 0 0 .383 .444 .679 1.123 May 95 18 36 4 0 6 18 14 1 21 0 0 .379 .464 .611 1.075 June 83 7 20 2 0 3 7 10 0 8 0 0 .241 .323 .373 .696 July 93 9 28 2 0 3 12 7 3 14 0 0 .301 .365 .419 .784 August 78 7 18 1 0 4 10 5 1 10 0 0 .231 .282 .397 .679 September 8 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 .250 .250 .375 .625 Last 7 Days 27 2 4 1 0 0 2 2 0 4 0 0 .148 .200 .185 .385 Pre All-Star 286 40 94 15 0 14 42 33 3 44 0 0 .329 .404 .528 .932 All-Star 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .000 1.000 .000 1.000 Post All-Star 152 15 41 4 0 7 20 10 4 25 0 0 .270 .327 .434 .761 April and May he was a monster. Since then, he had a mediocre July, but June and August were pathetic for our cleanup hitter, and the last week has been unwatchable. Maybe there's hope in his home/away splits. Home 209 32 71 11 0 12 36 25 2 33 0 0 .340 .414 .565 .979 Away 229 23 64 8 0 9 26 18 5 36 0 0 .279 .344 .432 .776 I don't think Robin can afford to just pencil him into the 4 slot every day and pray he rebounds. At home maybe he should play everyday, but his last week on the road was SO BAD anyone -- even a pitcher -- could have outhit him. What's up? He's not the only one in a slump, but he's killing the heart of the order. You can't have Dunn strike out like he does with men on base if Paulie can never pick them up.

The Sox' big hitters are all slumping at the same time. I was looking at their last 7 days while watching the game last night, and it was pathetic. The ironic thing was that Robin rested Viciedo and Beckham, who were two of our better hitters over the last week. The worst was Konerko, with Youk, Dunn, Rios, and AJ also hitting terribly. The best hitter was Ramirez. Sox can't win if the core of the lineup doesn't hit. Trouble is, the Sox have no bench to give those guys and occasional rest. The good news is that the remaining schedule gives the Sox a very good chance. More home than road games (17-12). 6 each against Minnesota and Cleveland (and 6 against KC). The 8 games against Detroit and Tampa are in Chicago. Only winning team we have left on the road is 3 in Anaheim. Tigers may have an easier schedule of opponents, but have more road games (12-16). I would not count out this veteran team.

QUOTE (knightni @ Aug 10, 2012 -> 01:15 PM) I dunno. John Danks will be spending quite a bit of time on the bench this year. Jordan Danks. Good catch! I don't get to see all the games, but in the last Angels game, he came up with Alexei on third with a one-out triple. He did nothing and looked completely overmatched. I also read a post where with Pierzynski and De Aza on, he bunted into a double play when AJ fell asleep at second. He might not be terrible as an occasional replacement for Viciedo or De Aza, but he has no ability to pinch hit, and isn't fast enough to scare anyone as a pinch runner. Plus, Robin doesn't think he's much of a defensive upgrade or he'd get some time for Viciedo in games where we have a close lead late. The thing is, we have an option now -- DeWayne Wise. His .778 OPS is a lot better than Danks' .565. (Danks has one double out of 11 hits. Wise has 7 extra baggers in 16 hits, 3 doubles, a triple, and 3 HRs.) Wise also has 7 steals without being caught, making him our best potential pinch runner. Danks can't be out of options. I would replace him with Wise right now. For the infield, we'll have to look elsewhere to replace both Olmedo and Hudson. I can't believe there aren't options out there. What I'd really like is a right handed bat with enough power to spell Dunn against lefties, or hit for Konerko if the concussion problem lingers. That might cost us something, but it's needed. Think how many games Youk helped us win when he came over. This race is likely going to the wire. 1-2 games could be the difference.