VAfan

Here's my list of the Sox players who have done their jobs this year. 1. Dylan Cease 2. Johnny Cueto 3. Jose Abreu 4. Andrew Vaughn 5. Kendall Graveman 6. Jimmy Lambert 7. Reynaldo Lopez It's not much to build around for next year, especially since Abreu and Cueto are free agents.

I'm fine with the front office doing almost nothing at the trade deadline. This team doesn't deserve to be saved from itself. At this point, there are no more excuses. They have the ability to play better, to play smarter, to manage better and smarter, etc. Success and failure is completely up to them.

If Eloy is still hurting, he should be in AAA or rehabbing.

Are the White Sox going to be better off in the second half if/when Eloy Jimenez and Yasmani Grandal return? So far this year, in 71 plate appearances over 19 games, Jimenez has put up a 53 WRC+ total. That's better than only Leury Garcia. Yasmani Grandal has not done much better, with a 59 WRC+ over 201 PAs in 50 games. That beats out Garcia, Jimenez, and Reese McGuire (58 WRC+). It's like anticipating Lance Lynn's return, only to see him put up a 7.50 ERA over 7 games. With Grandal, the Sox at least have the hope he might play something closer to the second half of 2021, when he duked it out with Luis Robert for best hitter on the team. With Jimenez, he had a very good August after returning from injury last year, but his Sept/Oct was pathetic, with a 68 OPS+. Also, Grandal can replace Reese McGuire, who is one of the few hitters who has been worse than Grandal. While who will Jimenez take ABs from? If it's AJ Pollock and his 71 WRC+, it won't be much of a difference. But is Jimenez a better choice against righties than Gavin Sheets, who has improved after a rough start, or Adam Engel, who has been on fire lately? The Sox can't really afford for these guys to spend a month trying to find their strokes. They need to be hitting at least at career averages right out of the gate or they should spend more rehab time in AAA until they find their footing.

The problem with a Soto trade is that Soto has not named his contract price to the Nationals, and is unlikely to name his price to any team he is traded to. He's a Boras client and when Boras wants his player to establish his value in free agency, he just waits until free agency. Soto doesn't give a crap whether that hurts the Nats return on a trade. Why should he? So any team trading for Soto this year is getting 2.5 years of production and the opportunity to be among the teams bidding for his services when he's a free agent. Now even 2.5 years of Soto has value, but it doesn't have nearly the value that is being projected. That being said, the Nats should get the most value shipping him out this year, because it's an extra pennant race for the buyer. Every day they wait, their return is likely to decline. Also, since the Nats are TERRIBLE - worst team in baseball - they don't really want players already in the majors who will be needlessly using up their major league service time on a bad club. The deal has to be for controllable minor league talent. If the Sox were to bid, they don't have much in the minors, but they could certainly give the Nats their choice of 3 "top-10" guys plus 2-3 more lower level guys. For example, Montgomery, Colas, and Vera, plus 2-3 lower level guys. If I were the Sox, I would make that trade in a heartbeat. It's doubtful the Nats would take it.

Abreu has quietly reassumed his role as the best hitter on the team. If the Sox had more guys like Jose Abreu, instead of wannabes like Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Yasmani Grandal -- all of whom seem always hurt or just plain incompetent -- the Sox would be in first place.

I became a Sox fan in 1970 because of the 1969 melt-down of the Cubs. Never looked back. The 2022 Sox are a disappointment, for sure, but they have never been in first place.

Abreu is one of about 3-4 White Sox hitters who is actually doing his job. The others are Tim Anderson, and Andrew Vaughn. Everyone else should be ashamed of their performances.

Moncada needed to be benched after that play, and probably Engel too, though Engel likely would have tagged properly if Moncada wasn't racing full speed ahead. I would bench Moncada for the series over it. It lost the ballgame. That and Luis Robert being asleep in CF on the 2 doubles that bounced in the grass. Plus, Joe Kelly has a fastball. Why doesn't he use it? Ball 1, ball 2, ball 3. He was not a good signing.

The Sox have certainly underachieved this year. For some time, they've been hovering around .500. They've been pretty devastated by injuries, and massive underperformance from highly paid players like Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada, both of whom have played hurt a lot this year. The question is -- what to do at this point? My own take is that they should not make major changes or trade off future value for present value. There are actually some positive things that could be built on. 1. The offense is finally coming around. Here are some OPS numbers for June. Tim Anderson - .855 (before injury it was .922 in May) Andrew Vaughn - .940 Luis Robert - .770 Jose Abreu - .911 Jake Burger - .980 AJ Pollock - .849 Reese McGuire - .690 or Seby Zavala - .781 Josh Harrison - .822 They have just lost Adem Engel to injury, but his June OPS is .594, so replacing him with Gavin Sheets is not an offensive downgrade, even if it is a defensive one. They also lost Danny Mendick, who was hitting at a June OPS of .771. Who knows what Lenyn Sosa will put up in his place? Who knows if they can sustain this, but this looks a lot more like what one would have expected before the season started. 2. The starting pitching is in better shape than it was to start the year. The Sox finally have 5 legitimate starters. Michael Kopech - 2.38 ERA Dylan Cease - 2.68 ERA Johnny Cueto - 2.95 ERA Lance Lynn - 5.79 ERA in his first 2 starts, but career 3.5 ERA (even if he doesn't return to last year's 2.69 ERA) Lucas Giolito - 5.40 ERA (but last year he went from a 4.15 ERA in the first half to a 2.65 ERA in the second half). And they also have spot starters in Davis Martin (4.29 ERA), Vince Velasquez (4.46 ERA) and perhaps Jimmy Lambert (3.29 ERA) or Reynaldo Lopez (3.16 ERA). They DON'T have Dallas Keuchel and his 7.88 ERA over 8 starts. 3. The bullpen looks like it may be the most stretched portion of the roster, but will get reinforcements Without Liam Hendriks and Aaron Bummer, the bullpen is thin. But we still have Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly (who should get back to career norms) at the back end, and 2-inning guys in Velasquez, Lambert, and Lopez to shorten the number of pitchers needed for the back end of games. Plus, if the offense continues to produce and Lynn and Giolito do their jobs, we should have more games with some cushion to ease the pressure on the bullpen. 4. The team will get reinforcements in the second half without having to make trades. Eloy Jimenez -- who knows what he'll be when he returns. But at the very least he should be upgrade from Gavin Sheets. His career OPS is .813, but it was .891 in 2020. Yasmani Grandal -- he went on a tear after he returned from injury last year. His second half OPS was 1.154. Yoan Moncada - will he be an upgrade? It's not clear. When Eloy is back, to play Moncada you would have to sit either Pollock or Burger. His second half OPS last year was .780. No need to rush him. Danny Mendick - playing better than Harrison or Garcia. Adam Engel - good defensive replacement outfielder/spot starter. Liam Hendriks - closer Aaron Bummer - lefty set up man Kyle Crick - depth BP piece 5. They play in the AL Central, where Cleveland is leading with a .563 winning percentage. That is tied for the NL Central as the worst winning percentage among division leaders. It puts the Sox 4.5 games back right now. The Sox have 13 games against the Twins, with 6 at home, and 7 on the road, including 6 of their last 9 games. They have 14 games against the Guardians, with 7 at home and 7 on the road. (Last game is Sept 22). Needless to say, those head-to-head matchups with Cleveland and Minnesota will go a long way to deciding the division winner. 6. TLR's 1983 Sox went on a second-half tear. That Sox team was 40-37 in the first half, and 59-26 in the second half. They didn't add anyone significant to the roster during the season. They just started playing better. (This isn't going to ever happen again, just like no team is ever going to have 4 complete game victories again in the playoffs like the 2005 Sox did in the ALCS, but the starting pitching for the 1983 Sox in the second half was lights out. The trio of Lamarr Hoyt, Floyd Bannister, Richard Dotson went 42-4 starting July 12th to the end of the regular season. Hoyt won 13 games in a row from July 27 to Sept 30 (with one no decision) and 15 of 16 starting July 13th. Bannister won 9 in a row, and went 13-1 after July 12th (with 3 no decisions). Dotson won 10 in a row, and went 14-2 from July 15th to the end of the year (with 1 no decision). Crazy.) The Atlanta Braves were 44-45 in the first half last year, and 44-28 in the second half on their way to a WS win. I'm sure there are many other examples of a team not playing well in the first half and then going on a tear in the second half. 7. What would the point be of making deals? The Sox don't have a lot of depth in the minors or major league pieces to trade from. And if you trade guys like Burger or Sheets you are just weakening the roster for the next few years. Burger is looking more like the longer term answer at 3B than Yoan Moncada is right now. And Sheets had a rough start to the year, but otherwise had a stellar platoon role last year, and we're pretty desperate for LH power bats. I would consider trading Moncada, who doesn't look like he's going to earn his contract over the next few years, and Eloy Jimenez, who seems very injury prone. But they are also at their lowest trade value. Who would take on Moncada's contract and send anything of value in return? And could you get anything in an Eloy trade likely to have the same upside if he gains some health consistency? I would also trade Lucas Giolito, who seems too inconsistent to be worthy of a big money extension, but his value is also low at the moment. He's more likely to be someone moved in the offseason with only 1 year of control left. Conclusion I say ride it out with this group -- players, coaches/manager, and front office. See if they can turn it around with only minor tweaks that don't cost significant future value. The Ryan Tepera trade from last year, for example, not the Kimbrel trade. If they don't make it, consider significant changes in the offseason.

I'm so done with Yoan Moncada. He hasn't earned to even be on the ballclub at this point. Jake Burger should be the starting 3rd baseman for the rest of the year. Moncada should ride the bench, or the IL if they have reason to put him there. If the Sox could get anyone to take on even half of Moncada's remaining contract, they should dump him in a minute. Addition by subtraction. He's owed $41M over the next 2 years. We thought Keuchel was death to the pitching staff. Moncada is death to the lineup. He's not even outhitting Josh Harrison or Leury Garcia, who are both pathetic.

The problem with the offense turning around is they have no patience at the plate. They do not work the count. They do not force pitchers to elevate their pitch counts, get tired, and then groove hittable pitches. Tim Anderson is the best hitter on the club, but he doesn't lead by example, because no one else can hit like him. The rest of the veteran hitters should be embarrassed by how Andrew Vaughn is showing them all up. Still, even he has only 6 walks, just like Anderson and Robert, the 3 best hitters in the lineup. I don't think Menechino is the problem, but the Sox should probably fire him because the players are not buying into what he's telling them.

As one of the few positive posters on Soxtalk, I've been pretty quiet since the season began. The team is just very disappointing on many levels. That doesn't mean it can't rally, but so far, so much of it has been unwatchable. On offense, only Tim Anderson and Andrew Vaughn are above .800 OPS on the season. And only 4 players are above 100 wRC+. Robert and Abreu are the other two. (Not counting Danny Mendick and his 26 PAs). So many others have flat out stunk. Where is Yasmani Grandal, and why is he getting so many ABs at DH? Where is AJ Pollock? Yoan Moncada? You make us yearn for Jake Burger, and your contract is about to be a major albatross around the Sox' neck. For pitching, Michael Kopech has been stellar. Lucas Giolito has also pitched well when he's been available. Johnny Cueto has been amazing in two starts. And even Dylan Cease has done pretty well, though he's also been blown up in 2 of his last 3 starts, which dropped his ERA+ down to 92. In the bullpen, there have been good performances, but also let downs. Matt Foster is one of the bright spots there. On defense, it seems to have stabilized, but there were some early games lost with poor defense, including errors by Tim Anderson, the otherwise star of the team. I won't break down Tony LaRussa other than to say he's made many inexcusable mistakes for a HOF manager. We often overrate "moves" by a manager, and underrate how a manager gets a team to play hard, but even on the latter score, TLR has not done well. There seems to be no team discipline. Rick Hahn and the Sox front office? My biggest problem was not keeping Carlos Rodon, though after starting out with a great first month, he's been roughed up lately and is only 4-4 with a 113 ERA+. But other moves have not worked. Joe Kelly? He can't stay healthy. Not sure Ryan Tepera was the answer, as he's at a 95 ERA+ right now. But they spent a lot of money on Kelly and he hasn't given the Sox anything. AJ Pollock? Seemed like a great trade at the time. Good for a 70 OPS+ when he can play, which has had major gaps. Josh Harrison? Why? Frankly Danny Mendick would have been a better bridge to minor league guys. His money could have gone to keeping Rodon. At least the Nick Madrigal trade hasn't bit us, with Madrigal hurt and sporting a 40 OPS+. Will you finally cut Dallas Keuchel? By keeping him you send the team the wrong message, while losing games you can't afford to lose. He was such a bad signing. Without his contract, the Sox definitely could have afforded Rodon. So there you have it. The players, the manager, and the front office have all performed very poorly this year. I will leave with one final note. 1983. In the first half the team was 40-37. In the second half they were 59-26. TLR was the manager. Not saying it will happen again. But last year, the Atlanta Braves were 44-45 at one point on their way to the World Series.

Here's a story on how the Sox made a higher offer than the Phillies did for Zack Wheeler. This story is dated December 4, 2019. Plan B for the Sox turned into the Dallas Keuchel deal. This story is dated December 21, 2019. Here are Zack Wheeler's stats with Philly. 2020 30 PHI NL 4 2 .667 2.92 11 11 0 0 0 0 71.0 67 26 23 3 16 2 53 7 0 0 288 154 3.22 1.169 8.5 0.4 2.0 6.7 3.31 CYA-12 2021 31 PHI NL 14 10 .583 2.78 32 32 0 3 2 0 213.1 169 72 66 16 46 1 247 8 0 6 849 150 2.59 1.008 7.1 0.7 1.9 10.4 5.37 AS,CYA-2,MVP-19 2022 32 PHI NL 0 2 .000 9.39 2 2 0 0 0 0 7.2 10 8 8 1 4 0 6 3 0 0 40 43 5.94 1.826 11.7 1.2 4.7 7.0 1.5 Here are Dallas Keuchel's stats with the Sox. 2020 32 CHW AL 6 2 .750 1.99 11 11 0 0 0 0 63.1 52 15 14 2 17 0 42 0 0 0 257 224 3.08 1.089 7.4 0.3 2.4 6.0 2.47 CYA-5,MVP-17 2021 33 CHW AL 9 9 .500 5.28 32 30 0 0 0 0 162.0 189 105 95 25 59 1 95 7 0 5 720 81 5.23 1.531 10.5 1.4 3.3 5.3 1.61 GG 2022 34 CHW AL 1 1 .500 16.50 2 2 0 0 0 0 6.0 16 13 11 2 1 0 5 0 0 1 38 24 6.24 2.833 24.0 3.0 1.5 7.5 5.00 Wheeler was lights out in both 2020 and 2021 for Philly, but has struggled so far this year. Dallas Keuchel did even better than Wheeler in 2020, finishing 5th in Cy Young voting, but dropped off significantly last year when Wheeler was leading the NL in innings pitched and strikeouts. Just think of how this could have worked out differently. 1. 2020 playoffs. Keuchel started and lost game 2, giving up 5 runs in 3-1/3. Wheeler would have gotten the start. Sox might have won that series in 2 games. 2. 2021 playoffs. Wheeler probably would have gotten the game 1 start. Didn't have a better ERA than Lynn, but he's younger, stronger, healthier. Could that series have flipped with Wheeler? 3. 2022. All my fretting about re-signing Carlos Rodon would likely be moot. Sox still might have added Velasquez for depth, but their front 5 would have been Wheeler, Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech. (So what if they are all right handers? They're still all TOR pitchers.) Even without Lynn and Giolito, they would still have Wheeler, Cease, and Kopech to manage until Giolito and Lynn returned. Velasquez could serve the same role as he does now. 4. With Wheeler, the Sox still would have brought back Rodon in 2021. But at the end of the year, they also might have tendered him and gotten the draft pick. Even if he took it, the Sox would then have by far the best 6-man rotation in baseball. 5. Wheeler might have also been happier playing on a winning team and making the playoffs in back-to-back years, rather than leading a Philly team that missed the playoffs both years. So, instead of pining for Carlos Rodon, I've decided on replacing that with wondering "what if" for Zack Wheeler. This also would been a better allocation of money, since Wheeler is worth his contract, while Keuchel never really has been. And we'd still have Wheeler locked up for this year and 2 more years. So even if Giolito were to leave in 2024, we'd still have Lynn, Wheeler, Cease and Kopech to top the rotation. Zack Wheeler is the one who got away, all because his wife wanted to stay on the East Coast. Bummer.

Garcia is worth more than his hitting stats indicate. He's always smiling. Looks like a very upbeat guy. Helps team cohesion. He's able to play all positions except pitcher and catcher, and 1B. In a tight roster, that has value. His batting is streaky. In July he put up a .792 OPS, and in Sept/Oct, it was .861, That was better than quite a few guys. He had a horrid start last year, just like this year. I'm firmly in the camp that he's overused. But I don't think we have anyone in the minors right now who could replace him.

If Vaughn wants everyday ABs against right handers, he has to continue earning them by hitting them better than the alternatives, including Eloy and Abreu, Sheets, Moncada (if you play him at 3B on occasion) and Pollock He's a DH, 1B, RF, LF most often, but can also play 3B in a pinch, and maybe even 2B for a game. Who is in those roles against right handers? For DH, it could be Grandal, Sheets, Eloy, and Abreu. For 1B, it could be Abreu, Grandal, and Sheets. For LF, it could be Eloy, Sheets, Pollock, or Engel. For RF, it could be Pollock, Engel, or Sheets. For 3B, it's Moncada, Burger, Harrison, or Garcia. How many of those hitters did Vaughn hit better against right handers last season? None of them. And it wasn't close. i'm excited to see him have a new approach and hit them solidly over a few ABs so far this year. But a few ABs don't make a season. TLR knows he needs to work Vaughn in, and he will. But the Sox need every one of the other guys to produce this year. So it's no solution to just "bench" someone else for Vaughn. The good news for Vaughn is that he's capable enough to play a lot of positions. This is going to get him more ABs than he would if he was just a DH/1B

Let's compare the 2021 and 2022 opening day rosters. Position 2021 Player 2022 Player SP Giolito Giolito Lynn IL Rodon SF Cease Cease Keuchel Keuchel Kopech (BP) Kopech Phillies Velasquez Giants Cueto (Minors) BP Hendriks Hendriks Bummer Bummer Mariners Graveman Dodgers (IL now) Kelly Crochet IL Marshall ?? Heuer Cubs Foster Foster Ruiz Ruiz ?? Crick ?? Tanner ?? Sousa AAA Lopez C Grandal Grandal Collins Blue Jays Mercedes IL Blue Jays McGuire 1B Abreu Abreu AAA Sheets 2B Madrigal Cubs Pirates Harrison 3B Moncada IL AAA Burger SS Anderson Suspension 2 games Mendick Util Garcia Garcia OF Robert Robert Vaughn Vaughn Eaton ?? Lamb Giants? Hamilton Mariners? Dodgers Pollock IL Jimenez IL Engel Starting pitching. Much worse. What's better or worse? Worse: No Rodon, Lynn on IL for 2 months. Who knows what you have in Velasquez, Keuchel, Kopech as a starter, or Cueto if/when he gets called up? Potentially better: Giolito could start better than last year, and Cease could take another leap forward. Kopech might be great when he's stretched out. Bullpen. Better. Better: Graveman, Kelly (when he arrives), Lopez (if he brings what he added at the end of last year), possibly Bummer. Worse: Crochet out for year, Kopech in rotation. Unknown: how well will Tanner, Sousa, Foster and Crick pitch? Catcher. Slightly better. Grandal is hopefully just as good, and will stay healthier. McGuire is a major defensive upgrade as the backup. DH. Much better. Gavin Sheets is a huge upgrade from rookie Andrew Vaughn against right handers. Vaughn will also be better this year. And there are lots of other guys who can be rotated in here. Infield. Slightly worse. Abreu should be about the same. Anderson could be better. But Madrigal is likely better than Harrison, and how well will Burger hit while Moncada is on the IL, and how well will Moncada hit when he returns? Outfield. Vast improvement. Robert is much better than he was to start last year. Pollock is a huge upgrade over Eaton. Engel is healthy. And Jimenez is back. They can also use Vaughn, Sheets, Garcia, and Harrison out here in a pinch if needed. ************ Pitching. Weaker starters, stronger bullpen. The pitchers need to hold the fort until Lynn returns and Kopech gets acclimated to starting. Kelly will help the bullpen a lot when he's ready. Offense. Major improvement. Luis Robert, Jimenez, Pollock, Gavin Sheets (against righties), 2nd year Vaughn. These are huge additions. Defense. Better. Pollock in RF, Engel being healthy, Jimenez over Vaughn in LF, McGuire at backup C, probably Harrison over Madrigal. Burger should be okay at 3B while Moncada is out.

Not sure why it's a "dumb strategy" to hire the winningest manager in major league history, who has led 3 teams to World Series wins. It would be "dumb strategy" to hire Ricky Renteria to manage this team.

I acknowledge them. But I'm just using the numbers we have. Sure, Burger might not sustain that. But it's possible he could improve as well. I kind of see him as similar to Andrew Vaughn. Both 1st round picks selected for their offensive potential. Whether they realize it is an open question.

The injury to Moncada is very unfortunate. For the Sox to really excel, they need 2019 Moncada back. But it's not the worst thing to have Burger in the wings, having already had a bit of ML seasoning. He got 15 games last year. Maybe he can build on that. I like seeing him playing 2B as well. This why you don't trade away all your useable depth.

I gave the offseason a B, mostly because I wanted them to re-sign Rodon. But the offense should rake and help cover for a thin pitching staff. I'm copying this post because it's also the finishing order I would guess. The middle 3 will be close.

For the record, I defended the hiring of TLR when most were rabidly against him. He's not a perfect manager by any means, and I'm sure I'll question many of his decisions this year, but he is a HOF'er for a reason, and has won more games than anyone in the integrated era of MLB. I don't think the game has passed him by.

In hindsight, what if the Sox had given the ABs last year that they gave to Goodwin, Lamb, and even Eaton. There were a bunch of underperforming guys we put into RF. All were lefties. Could Adolfo have done better? Also, next year, if Pollock decides to leave, there will be a RF opening. Would Adolfo be further along than Cespedes or Colas? If he ever figures out the Ks and stays healthy, he's going to help some team a lot.

I would have slotted Moncada 8th in my lineup based off last year's numbers. There may not be much offensive falloff to Burger. Indeed, Burger posted a 118+ OPS in limited action last year. Moncada was 117 OPS+. Burger had much higher slugging and higher OPS, much lower OBP. Batting average the same.

94-96 wins. Offense is going to carry them. Pitching is thin, but could be bolstered in the second half with trades.