VAfan

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 02:24 PM) I agree completely with the financial considerations you speak of. However, I think the question of whether a bat or pitcher is more valuable isn't so simple. I feel that sticking with Hudson as our #5 and getting a legit bat helps us more during the regular season, but I think getting a pitcher like Oswalt would be much more valuable than a improved DH come playoff time. Therefore, I think the question becomes do you roll the dice with an extra starting pitcher and hope you have enough offense to win the division? I personally hate the thought of Mark Kotsay getting another start at DH, but I feel like KW is willing to sacrafice some offense for a potentially dominating rotation come playoff time. I basically agree with this, as I wrote above. Except that I would argue Oswalt is also more valuable for the regular season because he gives us an airtight rotation. That means 5 pitchers who can all average 7 innings per outing. That keeps the bullpen fresh. It puts good hitting teams into immediate hitting slumps because there is no one they can jack around. Look what we have done to Atlanta and KC and others in this stretch. Think back to 1983 when Hoyt, Bannister, Dotson, Koosman, and Burns started and we ran away in the second half. We didn't do it with offense then either. We have enough offense with Quentin getting on fire, Beckham apparently finding his stroke, Ramirez being a second half guy, Rios and Konerko doing their thing, Pierre and AJ still below career norms, plus Viciedo injecting some youthful power. Andruw Jones is not consistent, but he can get hot for stretches. These guys are going to win most games where we give up 3 runs or less. I'm not opposed to adding a bat. I just think having the great staff is our team identity, and we should stick to it. Get the dominating staff, where your starters are better than theirs almost every game, and you will see more hot winning streaks in the second half.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 02:39 PM) I do agree that Danks-Floyd-Buehrle-Garcia isn't as attractive come the postseason. However, you still need offense in the postseason, and that's something every other team in contention seems to have plenty of at this point, and I don't think you can count on this lineup come postseason time. Quentin, Rios, and Konerko are all fine players, and there are a few others on the team who could be solid, but you can't count on the 3-4-5 guys in the lineup to produce all of the runs. No matter what, I think the Sox have to stick with Hudson at this point. Perhaps in the next couple weeks, or in August, you check into the availability of high upside arms who have struggled some this year (Ben Sheets comes to mind right away, though I don't know if the Sox want to go down that route (and Oakland hasn't officially made him available yet anyways)) and see if Cooper really is magic. You raised a lot of issues, but this is the one I want to focus on -- what could we do in the postseason if we don't upgrade our pitching? Here's some potential pitching matchups given what we have and other teams have. Danks-Floyd-Buehlre-Garcia versus Sabathia-Pettitte-Hughes-Vazquez/Burnett Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Buckholz Price-Garza-Niemann-Shields/Davis Lee-Lewis-Wilson-Feldman/Harden Which of these groups would we be better than? If Beckett's healthy, I'd take all 4 of their #1s over any of our guys. In a 5 game set going to 5 games, we can get that #1 twice. That would put us in a deep hole. Do we make it up with #s 2-4? Yes against Texas and possibly against the Rays. I don't see it against the Yanks or BoSox. So, without an improved staff, how will the Sox go anywhere in the playoffs if we get there? To my mind, starting pitching is the most important thing in the playoffs, not hitting. I also think the addition of a bat, even a thumper like Dunn, is not going to make our lineup better than the Yankees, or Boston, or Texas. But if you put Oswalt in our rotation (taking Peavy's spot), I'd give him a fighting chance against the #1s on all the other teams. And I'd like Danks, Floyd, Buehrle better if they were slotted 2-4. Remember, Floyd's pitching great now, but was gassed in the playoffs in 2008. Think back to 2005. It was when we moved Contreras to the #1 hole that we suddenly had a postseason rotation that could match up with anyone. Buehrle couldn't lead, but he was good as the #2. And Freddy was awesome as the #3 guy, while Garland pitched great in his two starts, partly b/c he was very well rested. The other thing Oswalt gives us is the airtight rotation that would let us pull away with the Central division title, enough perhaps to give our guys some rest down the stretch. Getting Roy also keeps him away from the Yankees, Tigers, or Twins. So, I'm still pulling for the Oswalt deal.

I'd rather go after Oswalt than Haren, if we're going to find the money to pay another power pitcher.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 02:14 PM) 1) The Sox can't afford to pick up Oswalt's entire tab. They have somewhere around $80 million committed to 13 players next year and they still have to fill out a bench, bullpen, and find some type of DH with that money. If you bring in Oswalt and don't make the Astros pay a cent, that suddenly jumps to $95 million committed to 14 players. Even if the Sox kept their $100 million payroll, that would leave them $5 million to fill out the bullpen, bench, and DH spot. At that point, the Sox would have to trade someone who is making a bit of money, and when the Sox have to trade Peavy/Oswalt/Buehrle/Rios because they can't afford it, it will end in a PR disaster. 2) It is looking more likely that Dunn will be dealt because he and the Nats haven't been able to work out a long term contract. If that is the case, the Nationals can either deal him for what they feel is a solid return for a great player plus 2 draft picks, or they can take 2 draft picks. To me, that leaves me believing that he will be traded. His services will be in demand, and all the Nationals have to do is receive a package that equals more in value to 2 compensatory picks. 3) It's unknown when Peavy will come back exactly, but most indications are that he should be ready early next season. For the Sox to be able to collect insurance on him next year, he would have to be done for the season before the season even begins. They will not collect insurance for him this year, and, since he will come back at some point next season, they will not collect insurance for him then either. You can't think of that as a possibility. 3) What's the point of insurance if it doesn't pay in the year the player goes down? In other words, how many injuries span multiple years? I would venture to guess it is very few. 2) I live outside DC and am not getting the vibe that Dunn will be moved, for a few reasons. First is they want to keep him. He's the heart of their lineup. And they expect their pitching to improve rapidly enough that keeping Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham is going to be a high priority. Strassburg changes everything for the Nats, including having the money to keep Dunn. Second, because Dunn would bring compensation, who's going to pay the Nats enough on top of compensation to get him? Third, why would the Sox do it for a rental when Dunn doesn't want to DH? 1) If we can take on Dunn or Cecil Fielder's contract, we can take on Oswalt's. This is the kind of move KW is known for. A deep run in the playoffs would certainly help the club's bottom line. Don't underestimate how much Jerry Reinsdorf might be willing to spend if he thinks the Sox have a chance at another World Series. *********** Let me just ask a different point. Who's likely to have more impact? A bat, or a pitcher like Oswalt? My answer is Oswalt, hands down. That's because Oswalt keeps our rotation airtight, like the 1983 club was in the second half. That wins us the Central Division. In the playoffs, Oswalt, at 4-0, is a proven winner. He gives us a chance against the Yankees, Texas, Boston, or the Rays. Without a power arm like Oswalt's, I can't see us getting past the first round. The other reason to go for a pitcher is I think TCQ ought to DH a fair amount in the second half. That would mean the bat we'd need would have to be able to play OF better than Quentin. So far, no one has suggested a lefty power hitter who can play OF better than Quentin. Dunn certainly can't, and Fielder and LaRoche are 1Bs.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 04:42 PM) And that would still cost Hudson plus one or both of Flowers and Viciedo. How are you going to realistically replace Konerko and Pierzynski when like $85 million is locked up between 13 players already? And beyond that, with Freddy Garcia proving that he's been healthy (thus far) and league average, you can count on him costing in the neighborhood of $5-8 mill next year while he remains the same injury risk he's always been, if not a bigger injury risk with another year on his arm and him getting a year older. Quite honestly, any player the Sox were to acquire at this point would likely come in as a (semi-)rental player, and would be resigned pretty much only if the Sox won the World Series or atleast made a deep run in the postseason. The Sox simply can't afford much else. Putting those eggs in the "deep postseason run" basket before the end of July could very easily be a misstep, and then having to deal them again in the offseason to avoid losing a substantial amount of money would not only leave the team in a terrible PR situation, it would also be a waste of resources as they wouldn't get the same value back as they traded away in July. I still think the biggest trade the Sox could make is for Adam Dunn, but I'm expecting Adam LaRoche (with whom I would be perfectly content), and it's entirely possible and plausible that they don't make a single move. Assuming Quentin maintains productivity and Beckham is indeed turning it around, the Sox have 4 legitimate bats in the order, and have other solid contributors such as Jones, Ramirez, Teahen, and Pierzynski, and to some extent, guys like Kotsay, Pierre, and Vizquel as well. A move would be nice, but I don't believe it's an absolute necessity unless they can get the right price on the right guy. If the Sox are taking on Oswalt's contract, I can't see having to give up Hudson AND Flowers or Viciedo. I could see Hudson and some lesser guys. And to me that move would be totally worth it. Oswalt gives us the best shot of making the postseason, and then doing something when we get there. Dunn, who is not going to be traded, would not be nearly as valuable in the postseason as a plus power pitcher who could win several games. Give me Oswalt if he's willing to join the Sox. I think Peavy may take a while to come back, so Oswalt basically plays for the Peavy insurance money.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 06:34 AM) The ideal situation is a Lance Berkman-Roy Oswalt salary dump of sorts. The cost would probably include Hudson-Flowers-Morel-Torres-A Ball Player (Brandon Short? Kyle Bellamy?) I don't think I'd want Berkman in the deal. I'm becoming more and more convinced that TCQ should get at least half of the DH ABs going forward, to keep him healthy and improve the defense. I could see adding a situational lefty, but I'm not that keen on adding someone who will want to play everyday. Especially a guy who is limited to 1B/DH.

In the short term, it doesn't matter where Beckham hits in the lineup. It mostly matters whether he hits when in the lineup. There will be time enough to move him if he regains his stroke.

Oswalt could refuse to come to the Sox, but why exactly would he? Here's an Olney article from early this year. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5210872 Seems like it crosses off a lot of teams. The Sox, it would seem, could afford Oswalt for the rest of this season. Since we are presumably cashing an insurance policy on Jake Peavy, we could just take the Peavy money and apply it to Oswalt. That leaves his big contract in 2011. Somehow I think KW will figure it out if it can get us another World Series. Would Oswalt get us to the postseason? He would certainly give us another dominant pitcher and a basically airtight rotation. That strikes me as the key to more winning streaks in the second half. Minnesota could not keep up with that staff. And with the Tigers' tougher record, I can't see how they could either. It could be 1983 again with the Sox staying hot and pulling away. (We won't win by 20 games again, but we could make it so it doesn't come down to the wire.) Oswalt also would give us some mojo for the postseason because the Sox would have the best staff going in, and if you want to win it all, you need to be best at something. You can't be lucky if you want to win the WS. Sox pitching would be dominant. Line em up however you want. Based on whomever is hottest. And the great bullpen would protect a guy like Oswalt, who is basically a 7 inning pitcher. Oswalt has been touched up for 4, 6, and 7 earned runs in 3 of 18 starts. Every other game has been 3 runs or less. Even if you add an AL adjustment, the guy's a solid power pitcher. Oswalt also protects against late-season slippage by any of our other starters. We know Floyd didn't have much left in the 2008 postseason. And he stunk earlier this year. So, as great as he's been, we can't project that performance into October. Buehrle has had second-half slippage recently. Freddy is a gamer, but can he hold up all year? I trust Danks the most, but he can't carry the team himself. Adding Oswalt insures against any slip ups and gives us a fantastic chance of having multiple great starters for the postseason. I'm beginning to think Roy Oswalt would be a very good fit for the Sox. Of course, if he doesn't want to join the hottest team in baseball, then screw him. But he could be a difference maker here. Sox could use a power starter, like Peavy was, for the postseason. No one fits that bill with Peavy out. Oswalt would fit that bill. He's 4-0 in the postseason. We beat his team, but he didn't lose the game in 2005. What would it take to get Oswalt? I don't think as much as people might think, mostly because of his contract. I won't hold my breath on this one because it's up to Oswalt for it to even be possible. But I think it would actually make a lot of sense. Plus, it would keep perhaps the best available pitcher out there, now that Lee has moved, away from our competition.

If Beckham started a sustained hitting tear like last season, I would actually hit him lead off, not #2. Pierre's bunting skills might be better used advancing Beckham on occasion, whereas I'd seldom want a hot-hitting Beckham to sacrifice. And if Pierre gets on with an out, his running threat should allow Rios to see more fastballs. (Frankly, if Beckham and Ramirez both got hot, I'd hit them at the top and Pierre #9.)

If you think TCQ should DH a lot more than he has because (a) it will help keep him healthy, and (B) eliminate his weak outfield defense, then it is harder to make a case for the big bat people are talking about. If you add a DH/1B, then TCQ has to play the outfield, since he's likely to be the best hitter we'll have in the second half. If you want to add an outfield bat, unless you DH that hitter, then conversely TCQ mostly has to DH, and it's not yet clear if that's the way to go either. As far as I'm concerned, you could replace Pierre, but the Sox aren't going to do that. Also, your outfield bat has to be better hitting and fielding than Andruw Jones, which may or may not be that easy, given how Jones has responded to some regular playing time. I'd rather add a pitcher, keeping Hudson in reserve. Pitching, defense, and enough hitting to win. That was the 2005 formula, and probably gives us the best chance again. I'd count on the offense improving because TCQ appears to be BACK, Beckham is going to find his stroke again, AJ and Ramirez will hit better, as will Pierre, and Viciedo might be a huge addition if you give him enough playing time. Plus, I'd rather go for a quality pitcher rather than trying to divide resources between a pitcher and a bat. No Ted Lilly. I agree he's not the answer. Maybe Oswalt, though he's kind of a jerk.

QUOTE (Mattchoo @ Jul 11, 2010 -> 02:41 PM) You trade viciedo if you are getting something special in return, such as Prince Fielder We can't afford Fielder. And what if Viciedo turns out to be able to hit like Miguel Cabrera, or even 80% of Cabrera? He won't have been worth trading for Fielder. Sox need some cheap stars, like TCQ, to keep the payroll from going off the charts.

I'd want a pitcher if he is good enough to be a potential playoff starter. That would keep Freddy in a #5 hole, where he's usually going to best the other guy. And if you have 5 solid pitchers, you never let the other team's hitters come up for air. You can continue to put great winning streaks together. An offensive guy seems less critical to me now that TCQ is killing the ball, Viciedo looks like a real hitter, Beckham is starting to find his stroke again, and other guys will hit better than they have. (Pierre, AJ, Ramirez) Plus, TCQ needs to DH a fair amount to stay healthy, which he can't do if you add LaRoche or another 1B guy. In the postseason, we are going to have to outpitch opponents.

Does anyone know? Here's a general article on insurance. http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/120793 If the Sox bought insurance, it will give them more flexibility to take on money at the deadline. It would also mean the Sox are protected if Peavy can't come back from his injury next year.

1-0 wins are so great because they demoralize an opponent. That 2005 team would grind those kind of wins out all the time. Remember, we won 16 of our last 17 games. I like how this club has started to show the same kind of grinding ability to win during this streak.

Right, but just off memory, the 2005 WS campaign had three very memorable 1-0 wins. Opening day, won by Buehrle. First game of the second half, starting a sweep of Cleveland, won by Contreras. And last game of the World Series, started by Freddy Garcia.

I just hope the Sox DO NOT trade him. For some reason I'm thinking back to when we dealt a young Bobby Bonilla to the Pirates. That was a bad move. I think dealing Viciedo this year, when we don't really know how good he might be, would also be a mistake.

I think the issue in a trade for Lee is not whether other teams have more resources than the Sox, the issue is whether they are willing to trade those resources. I would not put a Lee trade past Kenny Williams if he thinks that's the key to the WS this year. 3 lefty starters seems like a lot. But Lee is pretty dominant right now. You are looking at 15 starts if you get him right after the ASB, so more realistically around 12 starts if you get him in late July. How many games better would he be than Hudson? Can you project Lee at 9-3 and Hudson at 6-6? Will 3 games win the division? Because I think if you've got Cliff Lee in a rotation with Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, and Garcia, if they are on, the Sox could beat the Yanks or anyone else. Not saying we'll get Lee. Or could afford him after this year if we got him. Just saying it's got to cross Kenny's mind long enough to do his own analysis and to find out what the real price might be. My question on the Peavy loss is whether the Sox have insurance against this kind of injury. In other words, could the Sox get back enough of Peavy's salary to invest it in a replacement? Because, all things being equal, if the Sox could replace Peavy and his contract with Lee, they'd happily pay a bit more for Lee, wouldn't they? Wouldn't you? I think Peavy may never recover from this injury to be dominant again. Whereas Lee is a true Ace.

My own take is that Fielder is too expensive for the Sox to take on, esp. with Boras as the agent wanting a monster contract in 2012. That ship sailed once we traded for Jake Peavy and claimed Alex Rios. Can't see the Sox reversing field and unloading one of those guys to free money for Fielder. LaRoche and Dunn have also been talked to death. What do people think about Aubrey Huff? The Giants are in 4th place in the West, 7 games out. That tells me they aren't sellers yet, but if they aren't closer in a month, they probably will be. Huff stunk last year, but had a fine season in 2008. He's a definite improvement over Kotsay/Jones. Not a huge addition, but he wouldn't cost anything either.

I always like runs created and RC27 as stats, because they translate into real estimates how a player will add to your offense. Adam Dunn has created 56.2 runs so far this year, or 7.29 runs per game. That's 15th in baseball. Konerko is ranked 9th in runs per game, but is slightly behind in total runs. Rios is ranked 28th at 6.84 runs per game. Adam LaRoche, a favorite around here, creates 5.84 runs/game, ranking him 75th. But he apparently does much better in the second half of seasons. Mark Kotsay is 3.55 runs/game, or 18.1 overall. Andruw Jones is 4.01 runs/game or 20 overall. So Dunn is worth 18 more runs than Kotsay/Jones together, which I think is worth about 3 more wins -- enough to put us in first place. Dunn may squawk and say he doesn't want to DH, but I can't help but think playing in his first pennant race would tend to motivate him, regardless where he plays. And he ought to love the Cell. Put him in the #5 hole. He would really improve our lineup. Beckham (when he finds his stroke) Pierre Rios Konerko Dunn Quentin Teahan/Viciedo AJ Ramirez

I haven't read all 447 posts, though I skimmed the first 100 and the last 47. A couple of points. In today's Washington Post, it raised the possible Dunn trade and listed the Sox. That part indicates Rizzo is willing to deal Dunn, which he had shown no signs of previously. But the article also quoted Dunn as wanting to avoid DH'ing at all costs. Now, if Dunn is traded to an AL team, he's going to hit whenever and however he is put into the lineup -- this year. But if he REALLY doesn't want to DH, he's also capable of walking after the season, regardless of the offer to stay. The result is that the Nats may want the moon, but by Dunn appearing to be a malcontent for any team wanting to employ him at DH, it could seriously erode the offers the Nats might get for his services in 2010. My take is that Dunn appears a more likely target for the Sox than he did 2 days ago, and could likely be had for less than you might think.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jun 28, 2010 -> 01:04 AM) Heh, so if you just throw out Adam LaRoche's best month and Kotsay's worst month they're about equal? Seems fair. ZIPS has Mark Kotsay putting up this line the rest of the way this season: .253/.317/.355/.672 and a .303 wOBA And LaRoche: .280/.360/.509/.869 and a .378 wOBA Does a .378 wOBA qualify as a difference maker? Yeah, probably. Is it a significant upgrade over Kotsay? f*** yeah. One of the big reasons why everyone keeps bringing up his name is his career splits: 1st half: .253/.328/.450/.778 AB/HR: 24.8 2nd half: .300/.363/.546/.909 AB/HR: 17.7 Year by year 1st/2nd half splits by OPS: '04: .680/.934 '05: .810/.732 '06: .805/1.042 '07: .763/.854 '08: .764/.975 '09: .784/.915 '10: .808/??? Dude's got a consistent track record of significantly picking it up in the second half. He's also put up a sub .300 batting average in the 2nd half of a season only once and that was in 5 years ago. Are people drooling over him? No, not really. Would he be an acceptable and reasonable (financially and talent wise) replacement for Kotsay at DH? Most definitely. LaRoche is the most realistic and sensible target, that's why you see his name so often. Okay, I accept the fact that you did your homework on his second half numbers. If he produced in the .900+ OPS category, as he did 3 of the last 4 years in the second half, I'll grant you that he's a considerable upgrade over any options the Sox currently have. He's also in a good age and cost range to be viable for the Sox beyond this year, if we wanted to keep him. So count me as among those who would be thrilled if the Sox acquired him, as long as the prospect cost is not too high. I think he'd be a fine #5 or #6 hitter, depending on Quentin's second half performance.

Kotsay splits April 37 2 4 0 0 1 2 4 0 2 0 0 .108 .195 .189 .384 May 69 10 18 3 0 4 10 10 0 6 1 1 .261 .354 .478 .832 June 46 4 10 3 0 1 4 9 0 8 0 1 .217 .345 .348 .693 Last 7 Days 15 0 4 3 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 .267 .389 .467 .856 Pre All-Star 152 16 32 6 0 6 16 23 0 16 1 2 .211 .314 .368 .682 Home 80 7 16 3 0 4 9 12 0 10 0 0 .200 .304 .388 .692 Away 72 9 16 3 0 2 7 11 0 6 1 2 .222 .325 .347 .672 LaRoche splits April 71 16 21 7 0 4 17 11 0 19 0 0 .296 .390 .563 .953 May 95 16 24 7 1 3 16 13 1 30 0 0 .253 .345 .442 .787 June 84 7 19 3 0 4 18 8 1 27 0 0 .226 .301 .405 .706 Last 7 Days 21 3 4 0 0 2 9 2 0 6 0 0 .190 .261 .476 .737 Pre All-Star 250 39 64 17 1 11 51 32 2 76 0 0 .256 .344 .464 .808 Home 131 20 34 9 0 7 34 17 0 39 0 0 .260 .342 .489 .831 Away 119 19 30 8 1 4 17 15 2 37 0 0 .252 .346 .437 .783 *************** LaRoche is better than Kotsay, but not consistently, and not by a huge margin. Throw out April for both guys, and I bet they are roughly equal. So let's get real. Adam LaRoche is not the difference maker between the Sox winning or losing the AL Central. Don't get me wrong. The Sox need to improve their offense. They will, as Quentin, Ramirez, AJ, Pierre, and Beckham move closer to career norms. And they could also use a power lefty. But drooling over the likes of Adam LaRoche just seems silly to me. Here's a guy who would make a difference, though he and his team are scuffling: April 80 14 18 5 1 4 9 16 1 25 0 0 .225 .361 .463 .824 May 99 15 31 10 1 6 18 12 2 30 0 0 .313 .395 .616 1.011 June 87 14 25 7 0 7 20 7 0 28 0 0 .287 .337 .609 .946 Last 7 Days 23 3 5 2 0 1 8 1 0 5 0 0 .217 .240 .435 .675 Pre All-Star 266 43 74 22 2 17 47 35 3 83 0 0 .278 .366 .568 .934 And here's another who normally does better than this: April 86 13 21 4 0 2 9 12 7 24 0 0 .244 .381 .360 .741 May 101 18 29 3 0 5 10 21 1 23 1 0 .287 .415 .465 .880 June 86 13 21 6 0 8 12 15 3 21 0 0 .244 .375 .593 .968 Last 7 Days 23 3 6 4 0 2 5 0 2 6 0 0 .261 .320 .696 1.016 Pre All-Star 273 44 71 13 0 15 31 48 11 68 1 0 .260 .392 .473 .865 Neither one may be available. But if you are going to make a move to push the Sox offense to another gear, you need someone who can hit in the .900+ OPS range, not someone hitting barely above .800 because he had one good month.

Do you realize the last two Sox losses were games we might have won because Marmol was wild on the mound holding a precarious lead, but we came up just short? After the first loss, we ripped off 11 straight. I think we'll be fine coming off the second loss.

The other lead off options on the Sox are Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham. I wouldn't put either one up there now. But both can be streaky hitters who can get very hot, and when they do, either one could hold down the #1 hole better than Juan Pierre. More likely Ozzie will hit them #2 at some point. I always wonder why managers want a set lineup, when almost no one hits consistently over the course of a year. To my mind, managers should start to see and adjust to the streakiness of their players. Here are some splits on Alexei from this year: By Day/Month AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS April 77 5 17 4 0 1 8 1 0 13 1 0 .221 .231 .312 .543 May 92 11 26 6 0 3 13 7 0 10 1 3 .283 .333 .446 .779 June 82 13 23 3 1 2 6 5 0 16 0 3 .280 .322 .415 .737 Last 7 Days 20 2 7 1 0 0 1 2 0 4 0 1 .350 .409 .400 .809 Pre All-Star 251 29 66 13 1 6 27 13 0 39 2 6 .263 .299 .394 .693 From last year: April 70 6 15 2 0 1 9 6 0 9 5 1 .214 .273 .286 .559 May 96 10 27 3 0 2 14 6 0 10 4 1 .281 .320 .375 .695 June 113 19 32 2 0 7 15 10 1 16 2 1 .283 .347 .487 .834 July 84 14 25 4 1 1 9 9 0 6 1 0 .298 .354 .405 .759 August 78 9 22 1 0 3 10 7 0 15 1 1 .282 .333 .410 .743 September 92 12 26 2 0 1 10 9 0 8 1 1 .283 .347 .337 .684 October 9 1 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 0 .333 .417 .333 .750 Last 7 Days 13 1 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 3 0 0 .231 .313 .231 .544 Pre All-Star 313 44 88 9 0 11 42 26 1 38 12 3 .281 .335 .415 .750 Post All-Star 229 27 62 5 1 4 26 23 0 28 2 2 .271 .331 .354 .685 From 2008: April 29 1 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 .138 .138 .207 .345 May 61 10 18 3 0 2 5 1 1 9 2 0 .295 .313 .443 .756 June 93 11 33 7 0 3 17 4 0 9 1 1 .355 .381 .527 .908 July 91 16 31 4 1 4 14 3 0 14 4 3 .341 .354 .538 .892 August 107 13 33 5 1 6 22 1 0 13 3 3 .308 .312 .542 .854 September 95 14 20 1 0 6 17 8 2 10 3 1 .211 .286 .411 .697 Pre All-Star 231 31 72 13 0 7 29 7 1 30 7 4 .312 .332 .459 .791 Post All-Star 249 34 67 9 2 14 48 11 2 31 6 5 .269 .303 .490 .793 **************** If you parse this out, in June and July, Alexei Ramirez becomes a very very good hitter. He hasn't done quite as well this June, but he's got a week left to pull his averages up. My point is, looking at this trend line, you should consider moving Ramirez to the #1 or #2 hole during those two months. Or, if someone else is even better those months, move them up. So many times, our analysis stops when looking at seasonal numbers. But if you break it down by player, you ought to shift them around to take advantage of when they do well. (By the same token, the Sox should have considered starting the season with Vizquel at SS, as Alexei is uniformly horrible in April.) Now, here's Gordon Beckham: 2010: April 81 10 19 4 0 1 4 8 2 14 1 1 .235 .315 .321 .636 May 82 8 13 0 0 0 6 10 1 19 2 1 .159 .258 .159 .417 June 70 8 15 5 0 1 8 1 1 15 1 0 .214 .230 .329 .559 Last 7 Days 17 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 0 0 .176 .167 .353 .520 Pre All-Star 233 26 47 9 0 2 18 19 4 48 4 2 .202 .270 .266 .536 2009: June 75 11 20 3 0 2 13 9 1 13 1 3 .267 .353 .387 .740 July 97 12 32 10 0 3 18 9 1 14 3 1 .330 .382 .526 .908 August 112 17 25 10 0 3 18 12 3 24 2 0 .223 .313 .393 .706 September 83 16 23 4 1 6 14 10 1 11 1 0 .277 .362 .566 .928 October 11 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 .182 .250 .273 .523 This year, he's been consistently bad. He also had a terrible start last year, and a weak August. But look at July and September. He was awesome. So, if and when he shows signs of one of those hot streaks, move him up. Of course, there are a lot of splits other than month-to-month splits. There is home and away, night and day, team and pitcher, etc. I'm just using month-to-month for illustration purposes. The point is that the Sox do not have one player who should hit lead off the entire season. They have a few candidates who can fill the role, and should be put in that spot when they are hot.

Gordon Beckham to AAA would be the biggest mistake the Sox could make. The kid already had a tough beginning when he first came up, then found his mojo and started tearing up the league. I think he's going to find his stroke again, this year, and perhaps very soon. His HR and sac fly last night may have been the kind of spark he needed. It was also hilarious the reception he got from the bench. I think you could play Vizquel at 2B some, to give more time to Viciedo. But Ozzie also should consider DH'ing Viciedo some to give him more ABs. Omar is also going to need time off to stay fresh. I just think that now that Quentin and AJ seem to have righted themselves, and Ramirez to some extent, that you'll see Beckham start to heat up as well. We've already seen him turn it around once in the majors. No reason he can't do it again. And when he does, our offense would actually start to be almost dangerous. Certainly strong enough to win the games when we get good pitching.