VAfan

What are the sure things for next year? OF -- Quentin, Rios IF -- Beckham, Ramirez, Konerko C -- AJ SP -- Peavy, Buehrle, Floyd, Danks RP -- Jenks, Thornton, Pena, Carrasco These positions seem set to me. Sure, KW could trade someone from this group, but it seems very unlikely. Who else do we have? OF -- Kotsay, Wise IF -- Getz, Nix, Viciedo C -- Flowers, Castro SP -- Torres, Hudson RP -- Linebrink What about the free agents? OF -- Pods, Dye RP -- Dotel What would I do? I think we're stuck for another year with the infield that we have. Until Viciedo is ready, I don't see the Sox making any moves here. Beckham will be better offensively and defensively with a year under his belt. Ramirez is better at SS than he was at 2B. The key will be getting him to hit in cold weather. Getz and Nix should fight it out for 2B, with Nix the better defender and with more power. Problem is that Nix can serve as a utility backup for 3B, SS, and 2B while Getz can't. Still, I think these guys will be given another year. Konerko isn't going anywhere until his contract runs out. In the outfield, I think Dye has played his way off the team in the second half. Key question is whether to bring Pods back at lead off. I'd look instead for a lefty power hitter who can field to play RF. And it wouldn't be Bobby Abreu. Not sure who we could put there. I'd keep Pods only if he doesn't want a multi-year deal, and even then I'd look at him as a 4th outfielder. At C and some DH, I'd probably bring up Flowers and let go of Castro. At DH, I'd consider bringing back Jim Thome for a year. Or another lefty power bat. Wish we'd have kept Brandon Allen to DH or play 1B. He and Flowers would have made a nice pairing with Konerko and AJ, with a year to apprentice before taking over full time. 4 guys covering 3 positions. It would be an open competition for 5th starter. In the bullpen, I'd keep Jenks for another year, let Dotel go, try to rid myself of Linebrink, and then fill in with the best 3 arms I could get behind Jenks, Thornton, Pena, and Carrasco. I'd certainly be done with DeWayne Wise. Might keep Kotsay for his utility skills and pinch hitting. How would the team improve? Mostly from better starting pitching with Peavy instead of Contreras. Better play offensively and defensively from a young infield gaining maturity. More consistent production from LF and CF and RF. And a renewed bullpen. I agree with the posts about adding at least one impact player. Ideally that would be in RF. The rest could be bargain supplements.

QUOTE (JuiceCruz16 @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 02:15 PM) Goodbye Metrodome No more fake grass and baggie You will not be missed Twinkies will miss it No more cheap slap hits bounding Through fake infield turf Twinkies also can't Mess with indoor fans to help Long balls fly or die Mistakes by Minny To move football team inside Baseball team outside

Terrible road trip Dooms Sox chances for this year Time to play the kids Bye Jim and Jose First steps in offseason moves Get younger next year Peavy's elbow aches Hope this isn't a preview Of fragility Beat the Cubbies now Win the cross-town rivalry Salvage some team pride

Chad Bradford anyone? Would he make the list?

I've seen Brandon Allen for all of one at-bat. Otherwise, all I've looked at are his stats. So, criticize this opinion if you like. BUT, I would say this is a deal I wish we could have made without dumping Brandon Allen. Moved to a more friendly hitters park -- at least I'm assuming there's a difference between Birmingham and the Diamondbacks' AAA fields -- the kid has launched into a HR tear that indicates he at least has potential power at the major league level. And as a lefty power hitter, he is something the White Sox no longer have at all. I would have kept him. Maybe he never pans out. But if he does, he looks like he'll hit more long balls than any other upcoming Sox player, including Beckham, Flowers, and even Viciedo. You can just look at him and see he has the size and the easy lefty swing to go deep. Konerko's last season has to be next year. He's too risky to sign beyond that. So the Sox need a first baseman. Also, with the DH spot open, why not go with a young guy instead of moving Dye there? After his second half collapse, I no longer trust Dye. Sox could have gotten a lot younger next season by bringing up Flowers and Allen. Allen could DH and back up 1B. Flowers could also DH and back up C. Then you let Pods go and sign a RF to replace Dye. If Viciedo were ready, you could move Beckham to 2B. Without Allen, though, you have no lefty power. It's a big hole the Sox have to find a way to fill.

Meanwhile, Brandon Allen started tearing it up in Arizona's AAA team -- 12 HRs in 145 ABs, a .413 OBP and .600+ slugging percentage -- and has two HRs in 11 games after being called up, including a 2-run HR off Billingsley tonight, after he'd mowed down the first 13 Diamondbacks.

One problem the Sox have is lack of accountability for terrible play. The BEST message the Sox could send this team would be to cut Jose Contreras tomorrow. Ozzie should also have some extended benching of anyone who is not hitting, including Dye and Konerko if necessary. And for players to make errors? They should ride the bench the next day. I'd also like to see Quentin back in the #3 hole in the lineup, ahead of Thome. Sox need a serious shake up. I really think we have the talent to compete. But we've got to cut the mistakes and dial up the intensity. Or we're going to get steamrolled.

Mark Buehlre since his perfect game is 0-4? Lost season series to Baltimore, a truly bad team, 5-4. Barely ahead of KC on the season series, 8-7. Same horrible record against Cleveland. The only AL teams were are ahead of on the year by more than a game are NYY, TB, and the Angels. The big boppers in our lineup -- Dye and Konerko -- have stunk since the ASB. Beckham is having a slump. Alex Rios can't get a big hit. Mark Kotsay is hitless so far with men in scoring position. Scotty Pods has been picked off how many times? I just don't see this team turning it around. It is the antithesis of the 2005 team. That team was great in 1-run games. Played excellent defense. Had consistent starting pitching. Led games early and held on. This team plays very poorly in 1-run games. Has horrible defense. Has inconsistent starting pitching, even from its top 3 guys. I'm a die-hard Sox fan, and right now I'm dying watching this team play ball.

3-1/2 back, with the remaining schedule we have looks brutal. Do you think the team is done, with only the upcoming road trip to Boston, NY, and Minnesota to drop us out of sight of Detroit? Or will the team actually play better against tougher competition, the way we took 3 of 4 against the Yankees when they were here, then beat the Angels in a series? The floor is open.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Aug 21, 2009 -> 04:11 PM) So far I hope VAfan keeps calling out Sox players since they always seem to do something positive after he does. Not sure who else I have "called out." Mark Buehrle for losing several games after his perfect one? He still doesn't look sharp. Chris Getz, for being a light-hitting player that will always seem marginal to me? He's on the DL. Just the team in general, whom I consider to be underachievers? I'd love it if they'd prove themselves by catching and passing the Tigers.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Aug 21, 2009 -> 08:50 AM) I'm sorry, but if you "knew" he could pitch why did you say this less than a week earlier? Be consistent. Knowing he CAN pitch, and actually having Jose pitch to his abilities are two very different things. The guy doesn't have a bad arm, or a problem with his achilles, but he's a head-case extraordinaire. When I posted this, I didn't see any chance of him snapping out of his funk after that game in Oakland where we spotted him 6 runs in the first two innings. He couldn't even make it through the 5th with the lead. At this point, I'm just hoping we can get another couple of quality starts. But would I put any money on it? No. Would you?

Soon as I post this thread to cut Contreras, he pitches a gem in a must-win game over the Royals. Any chance he could get back on a roll? He apparently talked to El Duque and changed his pants to go with the high socks of his protoge. Not sure why Sox don't just put El Duque on the payroll if he can fix Jose. I didn't even see Contreras's game, but I know the guy can still pitch. Now we just need 3-4 more of these in a row because the Tigers aren't going to make it easy.

Count me as a person who prefers Nix as the regular and Getz as the backup. The only problem with that is that Getz isn't really much of a utility guy because it's doubtful he could play SS or 3B. So it is actually Nix's versatility that is hurting him. To my mind, the valuable offensive stat is RC27 or runs created per game. It's the easiest stat to understand. A team made up of this player will score this many runs per game. Nix, with increased playing time, has increased his RC27 to 5.20. Getz is at 4.64. By contrast, the difference between Jim Thome and Paul Konerko is a run per game (6.74 v. 5.73). Now, if the fielding numbers can also be trusted -- to my eye in limited action I don't see Nix as such a stellar 2B (for example, his bobbled ball that led to Oakland's 5 run inning last week that nearly cost us the first game in Oakland) -- then Nix should certainly be starting and getting more ABs than Getz. Plus, I see far more upside in Nix than I see in Getz. Getz never will have any power. If he hits the ball down the line he can leg it into a double, but he's not driving the ball to the wall, for example, and never over it. So he's a singles hitter with the ability to steal. Not insignificant, but not that useful unless he can really increase his walk rate or batting average. Nix seems to me to have potential to increase his average, while keeping his ability to walk and hit the ball over the fence. I'd take Nix.

The Sox have underachieved on many levels. 1. Defense. It's horrible. We were leading baseball in unearned runs at one point. Haven't checked to see if we still are. If we made the postseason now, this one factor could sink us. 2. We don't pound the weak teams or our division rivals. We have a losing record against the AL Central (24-27). Sure, we're 13-12 against the AL East, but losing to the Central is more costly. 3. We can't get on any kind of winning streak. In the second half, 3 wins in a row, and 5 of 6 is our best stretch. On the year, 6 games in a row and 8 of 9 is our high. I really want this little stretch against Oakland, KC and Baltimore to match that. 4. The pitching is inconsistent. If it's not the starters, then it is the bullpen. 5. We don't win close games. (15-20 in 1-run games.) 6. The hitting was pathetic early. Now, despite there being no real holes, it is still inconsistent. When we had DeWayne Wise and/or Brian Anderson in the lineup, along with Josh Fields, and no Carlos Quentin, the Sox had real gaps. Now we have an extra outfielder -- Rios -- and no automatic outs in the lineup. Yet we still can't get more than 2 runs on pitchers with ERAs above 5 runs/game. ************** If you go down the line and compare this team to 2005, the contrast is stark. That team was incredibly consistent and tenacious. By the end of the year, they would find a way to beat you, every night, by just enough. Great pitching. Stellar defense. Just enough offense and clutch hits to win. Led during the team's first 37 games. Won first game, last game, and first game after All-Star break 1-0, with 3 different starters on the mound. Incredible record in 1-run games. Just pounded the crap out of weak teams. I'm starting to think this team isn't going to catch the Tigers. By the time we wake up, the Tigers might get on their own little stretch of good play, so playing better is no guarantee we'll pass them. You can't count on the last 9 games of the year (6 against Detroit) being the time to catch them. We're still running Jose out there, for goodness sakes. And now we're counting on Freddy Garcia to rescue our 5th starter's role. I think this team may have to go to a 4-man rotation again, but if we did we'd burn out the starters by the postseason. I don't know what the solution is, but I think it needs to start with better fundamentals. Catching the ball. Solid pitching. Running the bases well. Situational hitting. Just not sure this team is up to it.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 02:46 PM) Javy Vazquez syndrome? You must have been in a coma about 4 years ago. I remember 2005 very well, when Jose was the key to our postseason rotation. But Jose looks nothing like the pitcher he was then. There are two more games Jose is scheduled to pitch. This Wednesday against Zach Greinke, and then with the off day, he'd be @ Boston on the 26th. After that, Peavy is set to return. Those 2 games could be critical to passing the Tigers this season. Is Jose really the White Sox' best option to try to win those games?

At this point, Jose is not helping the ball club. He's taking a roster spot that could be better filled, IMHO, by ANY starter the Sox have in the minors. I had some high hopes earlier this year when he was sent down to rehab. He came back strong and pitched two gems in a row. But that's been it. 6 run lead last night and he can't even get through 5 with the lead. Sure, Sox defense was pitiful behind him. But that didn't excuse the pitch he grooved to Ellis that cleared the bases. Or the two guys he let on in the 5th with a 1 run lead. If Freddy Garcia can pitch, let him take Jose's slot. Then we still need a 5th guy to fill two starts until Peavy joins us. But at least we wouldn't have the complete downer that Jose has become. He doesn't even look like he wants to win. It's the Javy Vasquez syndrome. It hurts the team. If he won't take a minor league reassignment, then cut him loose.

Freddy Garcia In second go round with Sox Could stabilize staff Freddy in 05 Won last 4 games on the road No one was better Garcia magic Could we see it strike again? It would really help.

Tigers still ahead What can Sox do about it? Win the next 9 games. Danks, Buehrle, and Floyd Can't win enough games themselves Need more starting help Where does Rios hit? It doesn't really matter We need his defense Dye looks old and slow Rest him and he will bounce back To slug like old times Peavy looked sharp In first minor league tuneup Expectations grow Pods picked off third Cost Sox fourteen inning game Time to bounce back strong I love Sox Haikus Wrote lots during 05 run We won World Series! (This was my favorite.) Great Ozzie man say Pitching and defense the way To World Series play!

Over the last two nights, the Sox have won their only game of the year coming back after being down in the 9th, and then lost 1-0 in 14 innings, where they left more than a dozen guys on base and squandered numerous scoring chances. So what do you make of this? Do these games propel the team in any direction, or are they just single game wins and losses without any lasting effect? Will the team get mad at itself and bear down to execute better after losing from lack of execution? Or will it get frustrated and fall into a losing funk, feeling that it can't get over the hump? I guess we'll find out. But I just thought I'd pose the question during an off day to get some speculation on how you think the Sox will respond going forward over the next week.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 09:59 PM) The sabermats love the deal (minority). A good amount of conventional people hate it (majority). What I don't get is that Riccardi is a sabermetric guy, he worked under Billy Beane. He must have seen something in Rios that he really did not like or the people above him forced his hand. I don't know. If you read the piece I posted, it says that the Rios contract is essentially a fair value of Rios. In other words, the Sox got a good deal because they added a player of need without overpaying. But it can also be seen as a square deal for the Blue Jays, because they could conceivably spend the same money elsewhere and get the same value. Even though the title of the post is the Sox got a steal, from a sabremetric point of view, it is a fair transaction.

Not sure if this is the proper place for this post -- please move it if necessary -- but I found the discussion interesting. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/white-sox-stea-rios

JD is more used to hitting later in the Sox lineup than in the #3 hole. If you remember, he didn't hit #3 in 2005 until late September, and it was the right move. Then last season, he didn't have any problem with Quentin taking the #3 hole, with Dye following Konerko and Thome. JD isn't going to rock the boat. He's going to give the Sox what he has when they call on him. Problem is he doesn't seem to have much at the moment. Of course, Rios isn't going to give us what JD hits when he's on, but he's at least going to vastly improve the D, add some speed, and give JD (and others) enough rest so he (they) can bounce back.

The only inputs into this formula are OBP and SLG. But there's a lot more than that to how a lineup meshes. For one thing, this system completely misses speed, which is why it has Jim Thome -- our best combined OBP/SLG guy -- in the #2 hole. What I don't get is how it also has Ramirez, who's near lowest on the team in OPS or runs created per game, as a #3 hitter. The other thing to note about this? There are 30 "best lineups" listed, with multiple orders. The difference between the top and the bottom is 0.007 of a run per game. Over a season, this would make the difference of 1.134 runs! But, of course, the players OBPs and SLG numbers vary much more radically from game to game, and you don't know by how much until after the game is played. My conclusion? Don't worry so much about batting order. Worry much more about putting the right 9 guys on the field.

Getz is the weakest hitting guy in the order, and should hit last in any lineup since presumably DeWayne Wise isn't going to be starting any more games. To me, with Dye in a horrible hitting slump, Quentin should go back to hitting #3, with Dye sliding back to #6, where's he's been before. And Rios should move around depending on who's sitting that day, including hitting lead off if Pods sits.

I've never thought of Buehrle as an ACE. And I don't think KW does either, which is why he went after a #1 in Jake Peavy. Heck, given a little more consistency, I think both Floyd and Danks could be #1s over Buehrle. What Buehrle has is a tremendous rhythm on the mound, which enables him to work his pitches up down in out and keep hitters off balance.