VAfan

After watching last night's game, it is clear to me that Dye is the guy who should get benched for a few days rest. He hasn't hit doodly for a few weeks, so on performance, he has to sit down. Next I would move Quentin back into the #3 hole, with the idea that he would hit there until the end of the season. His bat is hot enough to warrant it, and its the logical long-term place for him. Next, I would have Rios the guy who moves around in the lineup, depending on who's sitting. He's the new guy, so it is worth seeing him in different spots to see how he does. With Quentin hitting 3rd and Dye sitting, I would move Rios into Quentin's #7 hole to start off. This turns the bottom around to the top of the lineup into a speed team -- Rios, Ramirez, Getz, Pods, Beckham -- with the plodders in the middle -- Quentin, Thome, Konerko, Pierzynski. And even here both Quentin and AJ can actually score from second on most hits. For the outfield, when Dye sits, Rios plays RF, Pods stays in CF, and Quentin stays in LF. I wouldn't move Quentin this season b/c he hasn't played RF all year, and Rios is a plus RF. Sure, Rios is best in CF, but I'd just wait. When Pods sits and Dye/Quentin play, then Rios plays CF. And I'd use Rios as a LIDP whenever we have a late lead if he's been on the bench. As for the lineup if Pods sits, I'd hit Rios lead off. Again, make Rios the guy who moves around. He's got more than enough speed for the position. In that lineup, if Quentin and Dye are also playing, I'd keep Quentin 3rd and hit Dye 6th, behind Konerko. I think that's what we had last season when Quentin was hitting 3rd. AJ would slide back to 7th. It's not that complicated. I don't think Ozzie will want to overthink the issue of who's pitching, how many games has each guy played, etc. He ought to realize that Dye looks gassed and needs a break, so he should give him one. If Dye looks improved when he plays him again --and it could be when we get home next -- then he'll give somebody else a break, and so on. To recap: 1. Hit Quentin #3 2. Move Rios around in the lineup, including leading him off at times. 3. Give Dye a break now. Ease him back in when he starts hitting again.

I found fangraphs, which posts UZR fielding numbers. Here's Alexei's value. Season Team Batting Fielding Replacement Positional RAR WAR Dollars Salary Total * - - - -2.6 -8.9 30.9 7.0 26.5 2.6 $11.9 $1.1 2008 White Sox 0.8 -10.6 17.0 2.4 9.6 1.0 $4.3 $1.1 2009 White Sox -3.4 1.7 13.9 4.7 16.9 1.7 $7.6 I know it's a little hard to read. The short of it is he's a plus fielder at SS, but was a negative fielder at 2B. If that's true, then when we get a power hitting 3B, Beckham should probably move to 2B with Ramirez staying at SS. I certainly wouldn't trade him at this point. His upside is still pretty large.

I want to see some stats on Lexi's defense at SS before I could conclude he's not a plus player at that position. Who's got em? I don't get to see as many games -- only WGN -- but to my eyes Ramirez has more range than any other option (we'd have to guess as to Beckham's range), and probably a stronger arm. He just seems to have some mental lapses, which he ought to tighten up over time. However, if Beckham was essentially as good at SS, I could see moving Ramirez back to 2B and Beckham to SS, if we had a power hitting 3B to plug in. Why do I like that? Because it would leave Getz out. Getz seems the weakest IF by a pretty good margin.

Dye has been a soldier and a tremendous bargain for the Sox, negating any drop off from letting Maggs go to Detroit. But he looks gassed at the moment, and his hitting shows it. I expect the best way to break in Alex Rios would be to put him in RF for a week to rest Dye. If there's a lefty in that week, Dye could DH. But otherwise he should get an extended break. After that, play Rios in CF or RF depending on the matchups, with Dye, Quentin, or Pods taking days off. When Dye sits, Rios plays RF. When Quentin or Pods sit, Rios plays CF. That way you aren't asking any outfielder to play a position they haven't played this year, as Pods regularly plays CF and LF, but Quentin is only LF and Dye is only RF. Kotsay could also get a day here and there as a lefty OF, but would more likely spot Konerko at 1B and as #1 pinch hitter. I could care less about next season. With Peavy coming, I really want to see the Sox make the playoffs a second year in a row.

I have to say that KW is doing his job. Now, if only the players would start doing their jobs again. We need to crush teams like Cleveland, and win at least 2 of 3 from Seattle. It's a bit maddening when we've added Peavy and Rios and the team starts losing ground to the Tigers. There's certainly time to catch them, but we can't keep waiting to play well. We need better pitching, for one.

Until now, I had assumed the Sox would re-sign Dye after the season to another 2-year deal along the lines of the one he is playing under now. But since I don't see any games that aren't on WGN or national TV, I probably underestimated just how bad JD's defense has become. Now that I think about this more, if the Sox have a legitimate major league player to cover JD's spot in the outfield, I'm growing skeptical that the Sox will keep JD after this season. Of course, Rios is certainly not here yet. But if he did come, then I think the Sox are more likely to keep Thome at DH than Dye, for a few reasons. 1. Thome actually creates more runs per game than Jermaine. 2. Thome is our only power lefty bat. 3. Thome would likely extend for less money, and be willing to go year-to-year. 4. Thome is experienced at DH; Dye is not. Never know what effect it will have. Could be positive b/c Dye gets more rest, or could be negative b/c it changes Dye's routine. There are a few factors in JD's favor. 1. Younger. 2. DHing might give him enough rest to keep his bat going strong through the season. 3. Thome has back issues, so JD might be able to get more plate appearances than Jim. But, on balance, if the OF is set without JD, I don't think we'll see him back.

Until now, I had assumed the Sox would re-sign Dye after the season to another 2-year deal along the lines of the one he is playing under now. But since I don't see any games that aren't on WGN or national TV, I probably underestimated just how bad JD's defense has become. Couple that with the parallel thread on who our DH is likely to be next season, and I'm growing skeptical that the Sox will keep JD after this season. Of course, Rios is certainly not here yet. But if he did come, then I think the Sox are more likely to keep Thome at DH than Dye, for a few reasons. 1. Thome actually creates more runs per game than Jermaine. 2. Thome is our only power lefty bat. 3. Thome would likely extend for less money, and be willing to go year-to-year. 4. Thome is experienced at DH; Dye is not. Never know what effect it will have. Could be positive b/c Dye gets more rest, or could be negative b/c it changes Dye's routine. There are a few factors in JD's favor. 1. Younger. 2. DHing might give him enough rest to keep his bat going strong through the season. 3. Thome has back issues, so JD might be able to get more plate appearances than Jim. But, on balance, if the OF is set without JD, I don't think we'll see him back.

We need "quality" starts from Mark every time out -- at least 6 innings and no more than 3 runs. With the Sox offense lately going for 5 or more per game, that should return Mark to a winning streak. Otherwise, the only guy in the rotation we can count on is Gavin Floyd, and that won't be enough to catch the Tigers. Ideally we need 3 guys to be "automatic" for a while, and Mark has to be one of them.

Another way to look at this is that the Sox currently have only 1 OF on the roster that they'll likely still have 3 years from now -- Carlos Quentin. A lot of folks, me included, could see a 2-year extension for Dye because we saw no one else on the horizon who could replace his bat. And we might live with him in RF again because there is no other choice. But no one would really want to do that if we had a better option. Well, Rios offers the Sox that choice. He may cost more $$ than he is worth, but if the Sox get him this way, he won't cost much if anything in the way of prospects. It is no worse than overpaying a bit for a free agent. And who else would be out there in the offseason as a free agent at his age who is better than Rios in CF and RF, at a cheaper price? I would have made the trade for Nate McLouth earlier this year. But I can see Rios as a similar kind of player, albeit a more expensive one.

Looking purely at his offensive numbers -- and for ease I like to look at runs created per game -- Rios last had a good year two years ago. So, unless he rebounds, which he could -- since someone points out his BABIP is down this year and will likely bounce back -- then he is not likely to help us offensively right away. However, Rios is also by all reports a better defensive player than we currently have in the OF now that Brian Anderson is gone. He's played more than enough CF to take over there and give us an upgrade, which we could certainly use. Plus, at 28, Rios is on the right side of 30, so there is a very good chance he will remain productive for several years, and could still improve. Seems like a good deal for the Sox if they get him for basically his contract. If the Jays want to trade, they'd have to eat some of Rios's money to get any kind of minor league player(s) in return. For my money, I hope the Sox claimed him, and I hope we get him. If we did, and if we do, then I'm going to be hoping like heck that Rios starts hitting again like he did in 2007 and 2006 when he posted RC27 rates of 6.53 runs/game and 6.36 runs/game. At that level he'd be a plus offensive and defensive player.

Loved the perfect game, but getting into the playoffs is so much more important. We can't afford these terrible outings by Mark. 6 DPs and he's still getting shelled, by the Tribe no less.

QUOTE (103 mph screwball @ Aug 5, 2009 -> 07:27 PM) I actually agree with Jimbo. Sure Nix has made 4 errors at a position he hasn't played until this year right? Nix will be better than Ramirez defensively. When Ramirez refuses to get in front of a AJ throw, it doesn't count as an error for him, but it is not good defense. When he doesn't turn a double play because he is avoiding runner contact that doesn't count as an error either. You can show me whatever number's you want, Nix is going to be a better SS. Beckham would be too. Nix hitting may be a problem against righties. But what has THE TEAM done without Ramirez this week. They look better. I'm sorry, but I think the Sox would be better trading Ramirez while his value is high or have him prance around CF next year. Ramirez does not seem like a focused or smart baseball player who slumps badly. I don't like his body language and I doubt he will be a leader you hope your SS to be. He is Soriano light. Believe me, I hope I am wrong and I'll root for the guy every time he puts on a Sox uniform. I'm just calling it how I see it. Trade him before he gets in Ozzie's doghouse and his value drops. Ramirez is a far superior defensive player at SS than Nix. The balls Nix has fumbled there have been easy outs. And it doesn't look like he could throw anyone out if he even gets to the ball in the hole. Ramirez has better range, and a far superior arm when he needs to use it. I would agree that Ramirez still seems to lack some mental focus at times, especially at the plate. But his upside is very strong, and much higher than guys like Nix or Getz. I expect him to do some damage at the bottom of the lineup when he's back. Nix? He's shown he deserves some more playing time. But it should be at the expense of Getz more than Ramirez. I think he's less of a defensive liability at 2B too. I'm just glad he's held his own during this critical stretch against the Yankees and Angels.

I don't think we have any idea how good Gordon Beckham can be. He may be the one we compare others to, not the other way around.

Keeping Dye for another 2 years, with perhaps another "mutual" option for year 3, makes very reasonable sense. Offensively, he's third on the Sox with a RC/27 (runs created per game) of 6.15. That also ranks him 5th among AL right fielders, behind Ichiro, Bobby Abreu, Shin Shin Choo, and Nelson Cruz. But it is only slightly ahead of Nick Swisher, Nick Markakis, and JD Drew. (Interestingly, Magglio Ordonez, whom Dye replaced, is creating 3.85 runs per game for the Tigers.) At this offensive pace, Dye isn't worth a big contract, but if the Sox want Dye to return, I can't imagine the sides not working out a deal. Jermaine never seems to want to go for the money. He likes stability and playing on a solid team, I expect. The question of Jim Thome is a thornier one. I'm sure Thome will keep playing, and would like to stay in Chicago to try to reach 600 HRs. And, despite what some people have posted on this thread, he's certainly hitting well enough overall for it to be worth Chicago's while to keep him. He's producing 6.75 runs per game, which is the best on the Sox for the moment. (I expect Beckham to pass him before the year's out.) That ranks him tied for 3rd among AL DHs, with Matsui. He's behind Jason Kubel and Adam Lind. In 2008, Thome created 6.10 runs/game, which ranked 3rd on the team behind Quentin and Dye, so his offense does not appear to be declining. There is certainly no one in the Sox system who can replace either Jermaine's or Jim's offensive numbers any time soon, probably ever. So that means if the Sox let either one or both of them walk, they'll have to find comparable replacements or see our offense suffer. And since our weak offense is the reason we aren't in first already, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to let them go. I could see Jim accepting a one year deal to stay in Chicago at a very reasonable rate. So, my bottom line would be to strongly consider keeping both. I'd also be open to finding younger replacements -- we'll have to soon enough regardless -- but only if the offense does not suffer.

In runs created per game, Alexei is bringing up the rear among the Sox starters. Not only is Getz by him, but so is Jayson Nix. And Ramirez hasn't been that hot of late. So I wouldn't hesitate to drop Ramirez down into the 8 or 9 hole against righties. Though, against lefties he still rakes, so I would move him up to 6th or 7th. Against righties Pods Beckham Dye Thome Konerko AJ Quentin Getz Ramirez Against lefties Pods (hitting them equally well) Beckham (torches them) Dye (worse against lefties, but still solid Konerko (creams lefties) Thome (hitting lefties about the same this year) Ramirez (torches lefties) Quentin (horrible against lefties so far this year, but hit them well last season) AJ (pretty bad against lefties, but Castro no better) Getz/Nix (Getz hits lefties better, and better than Nix, but not so well that you couldn't switch here)

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 2, 2009 -> 06:03 AM) On the other hand, Getz possesses a different skillset from most of the rest of our roster, and thus, even when he is scuffling a bit, he is capable of doing a few things that our other players, for the most part, cannot. That probably creates a bit more breathing room for him in terms of his performance. As I said in my last post in this thread that I started, I have pretty much given up on Fields at this point, since it is obvious the Sox are not going to ever give him enough ABs to find out if he can be better than the player he was in 07. .244/.308/.480/.788 But I want to respond here because I just don't buy the notion that players with "different skillsets" are valuable because of those skillsets UNLESS they also produce at an overall level. To me, the best and most understandable overall stat is runs created per game. (RC27). It measures all of a player's offensive contributions, not just on base and power. So, it gives you what you deserve for stealing a lot of bases and not getting caught, which is probably Getz's best "different skillset." The point is, for that skillset to be of value, the player has to do the rest of the essential things, like making fewer outs per plate appearance, hitting for some power, etc. You can't steal first base. Getz has become a player who, because he is doing those things, is at least not hurting the club offensively. His RC27 rate is 4.84 runs a game, just above Josh Fields 4.72 he posted in 2007, and significantly better than what Fields posted this year. But as I mentioned on the Beckham for ROY thread, that still ranks Getz as about the 12th best offensive 2B in a 14-team AL. He's not so far below these other 2Bs that you would consider him a significant liability. But I also wouldn't consider him to be much of a positive offensive force either. As a rookie, when the alternative could be worse, I'll take it. But unless Getz continues to improve -- it's really a push right now between him and Jayson Nix (4.73 RC/game) -- the Sox ought to continue looking for someone better. And by that I mean that when the Sox have a 3B other than Beckham who hits better that Getz, then they ought to move Beckham again. Of course, that isn't going to happen this season. (On this last note, a lot of guys seem to believe the Sox are best moving Ramirez to CF, with Beckham sliding over to SS when the Sox get a 3B ready -- i.e., Viciedo. Until recently, I wouldn't have supported that, but now I'd have to know more about how it would play out defensively. It would also assume that Getz is maximizing his potential.)

The real question about Peavy is this: Can he be the #1 guy in a Sox postseason rotation? That's why KW traded for him, in my estimation. He more or less said as much in one post-Peavy interview I heard, talking about how the Sox as they were pre-Peavy just didn't quite match up with NYY or Boston or the Angels. I think he sees Peavy as the #1 guy, like Contreras was in 2005. It takes the heat off Mark Buehrle. It also allows Floyd and Danks to match up against starters they will more likely best. That was the formula in 2005. Once Contreras emerged in the second half, the Sox had a true #1 guy, and then Buehrle, Garcia, and Garland could do their thing. The only trouble is that so far, Peavy has had no postseason success as a #1 guy. Indeed, he got shelled the two times he led the Padres into the postseason, giving up 8 runs in 4.1 innings one year and 5 runs in 5.1 innings the next year, taking the loss in both games. But perhaps he was tired going into those games. This year, his ankle injury and the mid-season break it gave his arm, hopefully will mean he'll be very strong down the stretch. In any event, that's how I would evaluate this trade. Will Peavy get us to the postseason, and will he win once there? If he does the former but not the latter, it was a good deal. If he does the latter, the Sox will have pulled off a great move.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Aug 3, 2009 -> 11:56 AM) Chris Getz is exactly the kind of player the Twins have killed us with for years. Everyone always complained about it and people kept wishing we'd get some players to play the game like that. Chris Getz is that player. He will probably get better, though never be a star. He does things the right way and can do the little things. He also adds some much needed speed to the roster. Now, though, despite having a repsectable rookie season, there are people complaining about him. I just don't get it. The Twins play on turf in a park not known for HRs. Thus, they kill us at their ballpark. Fortunately, they are dumb enough to build and outdoor ball park that will open next year and completely negate the advantages they have at home now. I expect the Twins to drop off significantly next year and for a while until they can retool themselves. But, aside from ball parks, the key offensive numbers do not lie. How many runs does Getz create per game? 4.84. That ranks him ahead of only two Sox regulars -- the banged up Carlos Quentin (4.59 RC/game), who won't stay down there for long (he led the Sox in RC/game last year at 7.67), and Alexei Ramirez (4.57 RC/game). Of course, RC is the one stat that takes into account all of a player's offensive contributions, including stolen bases and stolen base efficiency. If you compare Getz to the other AL 2Bs, 8 of the 10 guys with enough ABs to qualify are better than Getz's 4.84 RC/game. The only two who aren't are Jose Lopez with Seattle and Placido Polanco with the Tigers. And when you include non-qualified guys, Getz ranks 13th, and only one of the guys ahead of him should be taken off the list because he really hasn't played enough. So, in a 14 team league, Chris Getz ranks about 12th in offensive output for 2Bs. He's not so far behind that I think he's really hurting our club. But he's not helping our offense either. On the fielding side, Getz appears to be holding his own. He's not a gold glover, but there are clearly worse 2Bs in the field. Looking at the numbers I'd place him somewhere above the middle, perhaps in the top third.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Aug 3, 2009 -> 12:55 AM) .311/.374/.486/.860 in 207 PA this season .335/.396/.524/.920 in his last 193 PA (remove the first 4 games of his career) .374/.416/.585/1.001 in 138 PA since his walkoff vs the Cubs If Beckham continued to post the last line, then not only would he be ROY, but he should get strong consideration for MVP (assuming the Sox overtake the Tigers). Even at the pace in the middle, he'd deserve MVP votes. I'm not sure who you can compare him to. He looks smallish to me to ever have 30 HR power. But at 6 feet 190, he's close enough to Utley (who has topped 30 HRs twice at 6'1" 190), so I wouldn't be surprised. Shorter than Jeter by 3 inches, but almost as heavy. Jeter posted .315/.370/.430/.800 in his rookie year after a late call up the year before. Beckham is already past that without the preview. (Utley didn't blossom until his 3rd year.) This kid is freakishly good.

One key is for Ozzie to leave him in the #2 hole after Ramirez returns. In just a few games there, he's shown he's a perfect #2 hitter. If he stays there, he's a lock for ROTY.

For all the guys here who want to deal Bobby, you have to step back and look at the overall condition of the pen first. We wouldn't just be trading Bobby -- and I assume no one would give us a younger and cheaper but just as good Bobby clone in return -- we are also looking at the loss of Dotel, and the continued weakness of Scott Linebrink. Plus, we've just traded the guy -- Aaron Poreda -- in our system who was best positioned to take a key bullpen role next year if we'd wanted him there instead of as a starter. So, look at the big picture. NOW Jenks - closer Thornton - lefty set up Dotel - 7th inning guy Linebrink - set up guy who's not so effective Pena -- 6th inning guy Carrasco -- long relief Williams -- LOOGY Nunez -- just a body NEXT YEAR WITHOUT BOBBY Thornton -- closer? Who set's up? Linebrink? Who's the 7th inning guy? Pena? Who's the lefty set up guy? Not Williams Carrasco -- long relief To me, without Bobby, it looks like it could be a bullpen implosion. NEXT YEAR WITH BOBBY Jenks - closer Thornton - set up man Pena or Linebrink -- 7th inning guy Williams (or another lefty) - LOOGY Carrasco -- long relief In this scenario, the Sox don't have to fill the shoes of any critical bullpen pitcher. They can phase in someone who will be no higher than 3rd in the pecking order. To me, that's worth whatever Bobby's going to get in arbitration. Sure, Jenks can eventually be replaced. But I want a pen with at least 4 guys I can count on to close the game from the 7th through the 9th in a 1 run game against Boston, NYY, or the Angels. Remember also that Peavy is not a pitcher that goes that deep into games. The Sox will need a deep bullpen.

It is pretty obviously too late for Fields to make much of an impression on the White Sox. And it's not clear if he will ever get out of his funk. So, at this point, since Getz has improved with more playing time, I would take the present alignment with Getz at 2B and Beckham at 3B over Beckham at 2B and Fields at 3B. But let's not kid ourselves that Getz is an offensive force. His OPS is still .700. He's creating 4.81 runs per game, which ranks him 14th among AL 2Bs (including non-qualified guys, as Getz is one). He's still the weakest link in the lineup offensively. If we get someone better to play 3B, I expect they'll move Beckham (not this year) and make Getz a utility guy. In the meantime, I hope Getz hits fabulously and proves himself.

I started this topic for a few reasons. For one, there is praise for the Kotsay trade, but Kotsay is garbage compared to Nick Swisher, and that's saying something. And yet the Kotsay trade is designed to get someone to fill (badly) all the roles that Nick Swisher could have been filling all season. For two, we've had a pathetic offense most of the year, and one of the biggest reasons is the huge hole in CF, which still isn't really filled. (Anyone for re-upping Pods? because I don't believe all the hype that Jordan Danks is ready.) For three, we're only a couple games out, which means things like this could really make the difference between winning the dvision and finishing out of it. And now, with the Peavy trade, don't you think it is much more important to make the playoffs each and every year? If Peavy is back to form in September and October, having had a nice arm rest in the middle of the season, don't you think the Sox could compete in the playoffs with any team in the AL? I understand Swisher was a tool. I'm NOT really saying I wanted him back. What I am saying is I wanted someone to give us his production at his position, and if we couldn't find anyone else to do that, then I would have kept Swisher. The Sox still desperately need offense to compete this year. If Quentin returned to form, and Ramirez hit like he did down the stretch last year, and Pods keeps up his current pace, we might have it. But I can't stand lineups with Mark Kotsay leading off (or anywhere else in them for that matter), and DeWayne Wise as the 4th outfielder. The Twins and the Tigers have done more to help themselves for THIS year at the deadline, with Peavy out several more weeks. I'm not sure we'll still be in contention when he gets back.

Why did KW trade Nick Swisher this offseason and go into the season with DeWayne Wise and Brian Anderson in CF? When Nick hit his tying HR last night, I sat there wondering about this move. The fact that Wise came through with a single to win the game doesn't change this calculus. Nick Swisher has produced 56.2 runs created this season in 371 plate appearances. DeWayne Wise has produced 7.1 runs created in 112 PAs. Brian Anderson produced 17.7 runs created 205 PAs. The difference is that Swisher has 27.4 more runs created. Since he has 54 more PAs, we'll discount the difference to 25 runs. If you plug that into the pythagorean expected win totals, you'll see that the Tigers are +31 runs, while we are at zero. So, had we kept Nick Swisher, we could easily be tied with the Tigers at this point -- or ahead of them if Swisher had helped us beat the Tigers even one time. Meanwhile, KW ends up trading for Mark Kotsay to fill the same kind of role Swisher fills, yet he's several years older and dramatically less productive. So unproductive offensively, in fact, that I'm not sure he's much better than Brian Anderson at this point. Swisher would have given us a major league player in CF from the start of the year. He could have kept that job when Scotty Pods came over because Quentin went down. And now he would still be a super-sub for Quentin, Pods, Dye, Konerko, and Thome, giving him plenty of ABs that will go instead to less productive hitters for the Sox. I realize KW and Ozzie wanted to dump Swisher after last season. But it was a dumb move without getting someone to replace his role. That one position has been the weakest on the team, and has certainly cost us games, and very possibly another division title.

The key to our second half chances depend on the health of Carlos Quentin. With him, we can compete with Boston and NY, who we face a ton. Without him, those teams will eat us up just like they eat up the other AL Central teams. I would not be a seller regardless because even without Quentin we will be in the hunt to the end, and everyone mentioned in trade would be pretty important in the postseason. As for buying, Nate McLouth is still the guy I would have gone for. Take's Quentin's slot, can play CF, and hits well enough to give us a backup in RF if Dye leaves next year. Not sure there is anyone else like him out there. I'd also be looking for stability in the 5th starters role. We can't afford to pencil in losses there. A .500 pitcher would look really good. Jon Garland? Trouble is, who do you send out if we add a pitcher? Poreda? Clayton? Does Pena have options? If we can play .500 against the AL East in the second half, we'll win the division. That's my only prediction.