VAfan

QUOTE (South Side Fireworks Man @ Jun 6, 2009 -> 02:33 PM) You've made some excellent posts here the past few days, VA. Thanks. I just don't get the thinking by Kenny at the moment. Getz is never going to be the answer at 2B. Sure, we didn't have much choice with Nix starting the year hurt and not wanting to rush Beckham. But now that he's brought up Beckham, why the heck isn't he subbing for the singles bat of Chris Getz? Also, why does Kenny talk in the press that we haven't given up on Josh Fields, and then proceed to play Beckham at 3B instead of 2B where he belongs? Fields knows that, as bad as he's hitting this year, he's hit better than Chris Getz. Plus, he has put up 23 HRs in 100 games one year, so Fields also knows he has more potential upside than Getz ever will. And Fields has 20 RBI, which is tied for 5th on the club with Quentin. All this just has to undermine team morale, because by playing Getz over Fields, and Wise over Anderson, the Sox aren't even fielding the best team they can from game to game. If I were Josh Fields, I'd be thinking -- get me out of here. And maybe that's best. But its only rational that Wise and Getz be dumped first. Sox got this with Jerry Owens, why not now? I also don't get making the big play for Jake Peavy when this team needs offense a heck of a lot more than it needs a front line starter. Not to say that Peavy wouldn't have been a fine addition. But the Sox are already way short in the power department, and it's only going to get worse when Thome, Dye, and Konerko ride off into the sunset. I know Kenny's trying to stock the farm with some power hitters, but for most guys, you can't expect them to hit for power their first year in the league. Kenny may think and talk like he's never in a rebuilding year, but these next 3 years look like rebuilding ones to me. They've already abandoned Fields. Viciedo is 20. Might be a superstar someday, but I'd give him 2 years at least before we can expect him to hit league average at his position. Danks? Another guy who's going to need some time. Even Beckham, who looks far more polished, may take a year. And Ramirez so far is in a backsliding season. The problem is that the Sox no longer have plus players at enough other positions to cover up for the infusion of youth. And if they start letting go of Thome, Dye, and Konerko, it's going to get even worse. Based on hitting alone, of the Dye/Thome/Konerko trio, the logical first guy to go would be Paul Konerko, as he's the only one hitting below league average right now. Dye should be the last one to go, as he's still a fine hitter and might remain so as a DH for several more years. Even Thome, who is paid too much, is doing a better job than Konerko. I'm sure he won't want to retire next year, so perhaps it would make sense to extend him for another year, albeit at a cheaper price. If we don't, we'll have NO lefty power on the club at all. It's not a good situation. The worst part of it may be that, it if takes 3 years to rebuild the offense with youth, at the end of that time the pitchers contracts will be up. With Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, and Richard, and a very solid bullpen, we have enough pitching to contend every year with just a league-average offense. We just don't have that right now.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Jun 6, 2009 -> 02:54 PM) I don't think anyone is under any illusions that McLouth would post up better numbers than Danks in '09 or in '10. It just that acquiring him would have likely prevented the sox from getting a top SP that they are supposedly in the market for. Whether the sox get that SP who knows. McLouth did have a breakout year last year, hitting .276 with 26 HR's and 23 sb's. But he still has only a .260/.338/.460 career line. It's not like this guy could be penciled in for hitting .300 with a .370 OBP. Kenny tried getting that young slugger to build around in Swisher. McLouth kind of reminds me of him, without the OBP. I think the Pirates sold high on him. It's not like he had a huge contract. Him being expendable, instead of someone the Pirates could build around, says a little about what they think his ceiling is. What's the biggest flaw in your argument? Trying to make the case that the Pirates know WTF they are doing. And that's a HUGE flaw. Pirates haven't had a winning season since 1992, Barry Bonds's last year with the team. Remember Jason Bay? What did the Pirates get for him? Oh, and Nick Swisher? He posted .219 .332 .410 .742 last year. McLouth beats him in every category, plus speed, and is cheaper to boot.

QUOTE (BearSox @ Jun 6, 2009 -> 03:04 PM) Why not? He's still young (28) and about the enter his prime. In fact, this year he is on pace to increase his HR total to 30 and his RBI total to 114 runs driven in. That would be an increase of 4 homers and an increase of 20 RBI's, in one year. His AVG, OBP, and SLG% are down, but I think that's mainly because he had really no protection in Pittsburgh and he was the guy pitchers were pitching around and trying not to give good pitches to. Now that he's in Atlanta with Chipper and McCann to protect him, I wouldn't be surprised to see his AVG, OBP, and SLG% go up now. There's no reason to think why McLouth isn't gonna be as good, if not better than his 2008 season from here on out. And, he's cheap for the next 3 years. Before, I really didn't care that we didn't trade for him, but I'm kinda upset now. You plug him into either of the OF spots with Danks and Q next year, move Dye to DH, and you allow yourself to let Thome go without losing a whole lot with McLouth as the lefty in the middle of the lineup. Plus, even this year he'd look good in the lineup and might provide a boost... w/o Q: 1. Podsednik, LF 2. Ramirez, SS 3. McLouth, CF 4. Dye, RF 5. Thome, DH 6. Konerko, 1B 7. Pierzynski, C 8. Beckham, 3B 9. Getz, 2B w/ Q: 1. McLouth, CF 2. Ramirez, SS 3. Dye, RF 4. Thome, DH 5. Konerko, 1B 6. Quentin, LF 7. Pierzynski, C 8. Beckham, 3B 9. Getz, 2B I don't care what anyone says, having McLouth in the lineup would provide quite the upgrade. I like your thinking. Glad to see some folks get the fact that our hitting sucks and we can't rely on AA or AAA to ride to the rescue any time soon. These next few years are going to be very rough if Kenny doesn't get moving to upgrade the offense.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 6, 2009 -> 02:49 PM) the better question is, do you really think McLouth will ever match his 08 totals again? Then you're smoking crack. Why not? The kid's 27. This year he's hitting .256 .349 .470 .819. That's pretty close to .276 .356 .497 .853. He's got 9 HRs after 50 some games -- no reason to think he's not going to approach 26 again. It is certainly within the normal fluctuation. And it is still way better than what we've had in CF in ages. Indeed, Aaron Rowand, the last CF we had who was decent, posted this line in 2005: 270 .329 .407 .736. I don't know how far back you'd have to go to find a Sox CF who posted numbers better than McLouth. I think you have to go back to the late 1970s, when Chet Lemon roamed CF. Lemon never had 26 HRs for us, but he did post 3 years with better OPS numbers than McLouth's .853.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Jun 6, 2009 -> 08:21 AM) Welcome aboard You took the words right out of my mouth. The short term fix that McLouth could have provided would have kept the sox from acquiring the front line SP that seems to be on the sox radar [either this year or in the offseason]. What the sox do very well is evaluate the players in their system. If they feel Jordan Danks is near ready to help the sox [later this year or to start 2010], then trading key talent for McLouth didn't make sense. From the sounds of it, Danks may be nearer then we think. If Danks is the CFer of the near future, then getting McLouth for 2009, at the probable expense of landing the top SP, doesn't make sense. That said, I do think the sox need to have another option for leadoff. Pods isn't likely to stay healthy. But, like you said, other names would likely be available that are more for the short term. There are several flaws in this logic. First, McLouth didn't cost Atlanta any top prospects. And it certainly wouldn't have cut into the Sox' offering of Richard and Poreda in a deal for another top starter, if such a deal were to materialize. In other words, McLouth was had by Atlanta at the cost of no player who was likely to even play for Atlanta in the near future. Second, by waiting on Danks, the Sox have essentially thrown in the towell on the 2009 season. See my other post on our complete lack of power. This is the worst hitting Sox team this decade. It is worse than the 2007 team that lost 90 games. McLouth could have immediately -- not at some undetermined future point - given us an above-average CF and filled one of the 3 biggest holes on this club. In a year when it won't take even 89 wins to take the division, it is silly not to consider trading for a very inexpensive, young CF who is fast and has lefty power. This is the kind of guy who, if Quentin returns and gets hot, Ramirez starts hitting like last year, and Beckham gets hot, could be a very big boost to an anemic offense -- THIS YEAR. Third, McLouth wouldn't lose any of his value even if Jordan Danks is a superstar immediately -- which is an extremely unlikely prospect. Next year the Sox are going to have to decide what to do with Jermaine Dye, the best hitter on the club. If we keep him, and I think we should, the question is whether he should continue playing RF. McLouth hits well enough to move to RF IF Danks were ready next season, which is a big IF. Plus, it's not like McLouth would have lost any of his value while on the Sox. He's signed for 3 more years. If we have someone better come along, McLouth would have been valuable in trade. Danks may be major league ready, but that doesn't mean he's going to hit well, or hit with power. McLouth does both, and at 27, is still on the upwards arc to his career. Fourth, Jordan Danks, with 3 HRs at Birmingham in 92 ABs, isn't going to solve the Sox power problems even if he were called up this year or next. To win at the Cell, the Sox need power hitters up and down the lineup. Danks might get there some day, but he's not close to being there now. Fifth, Danks doesn't even have the wheels McLouth has. So far, Danks has 3 SB with 2 CS. McLouth's major league stolen base line: 64 steals, 5 times caught stealing. The only edge Danks is likely to have in the near term over McLouth is in fielding ability. And we already have a CF who is a great fielder in Brian Anderson. We need guys who can get on base, run, and hit for power. McLouth could have been that guy.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jun 5, 2009 -> 08:09 PM) FYI, Buddy Bell just said last night that Jordan Danks is Major League ready NOW. I'll take a bet on your 3 year prediction. Here's what I'm saying. There is almost no chance that Jordan Danks is going to post McLouth's 2008 line before 2011. If he matches it in 2011, then it would be a push. Here's McLouth's 2008 totals: 2008 Pit 152 597 113 165 46 4 26 94 65 93 23 3 .276 .356 .497 .853 You really think Danks is going to hit 26 HRs next year, with 46 doubles and a slugging rate of .497? If you do, you're smoking crack. But, even if you were right, that's no reason not to have traded for McLouth, whose 2008 line would look plenty good enough for RF if we let Jim Thome go and slid Dye into the DH role.

For those of you who think there is a chance to turn this club around this season, I think you are dreaming. I decided after an absurd lineup and another shutout last night that the Sox reached their high-water mark at 25-25 this season. Unless Kenny starts dealing to bring in some players who can hit the ball with power, this team is headed for a dismal record. Perhaps not as bad as two years ago when we lost 90 games, but that, and even worse, is possible. Here's how the Sox stack up against league averages by position. League average is first, with BA, OBP, SLG. Note that I'm using the best Sox player at each position, or the guy who has played the most. You have to discount this b/c Quentin has missed a fair amount of time in LF and DeWayne Wise has received tons of time in CF. In other words, it is even worse than it looks, and it looks REALLY BAD. C -- 255 .316 .404 - AJ 304 .337 .453 OPS .720 v .790 -- 70 points above LA 1B -- 282 .367 .511 - PK .295 .349 .472 OPS .878 v. .820 -- 58 points below LA 2B -- .272 .333 .407 - CG .245 .310 .302 OPS .740 v. .612 -- 128 points below LA 3B -- .264 .330 .417 - JF 239 .302 .324 OPS .747 v. .626 -- 121 points below LA SS -- .269 .325 .377 - AR 249 .295 .324 OPS .702 v. .619 -- 83 points below LA LF -- .269 .344 .431 - CQ .229 .325 .458 OPS .775 v. .783 (Discount this b/c Pods .720 OPS) -- basically even with LA CF -- .266 .334 .410 - BA .255 .336 .327 OPS .744 v. .663 (Discount this b/c of Wise's ABs at a .377 OPS, just better than NL pitchers) RF -- .277 .356 .457 - JD .278 .337 .550 OPS .813 v. 887 -- 74 points above LA DH -- .251 .335 .437 - JT .247 .380 .479 OPS .772 v. .859 -- 87 points above LA Total -- 240 points below league average (which should be discounted b/c of all the ABs given to even worse players by the Sox.) Here's the actual cummulative total for the Sox 251 .319 .390 .709 Compare that to last year's 263 .332 .448 .780 In 2007, when we lost 90 games, we hit .246 .318 .404 .722. Look at those numbers. The Sox have players above league average at only 3 positions on the field -- C, RF, DH. They are at league average in LF. Every other position is below average, often WAY below. That's not going to get it done. It wasn't just that Kenny didn't fix CF in the offseason (making it worse by trading Nick Swisher's .743 OPS, which would have matched league average). He went in with ridiculous expectations at 2B and 3B too. Add slow starts by Ramirez and Quentin and you have the worst hitting Sox team in 10 years. And yet guys were ripping Nate McLouth on my other post, saying we shouldn't have acquired him. Well, his .250 .342 .459 .801 would look mightly good to me in CF -- it's .138 points better than Brian Anderson, and .424 points better than Wise. It would give us another player above league average, with speed to boot. Frankly, I don't see much hope in the near future unless the Sox are willing to turn over their roster. Beckham ought to be able to approach league average at 3B or 2B. But that isn't going to help much. We need at least 3 new bats, plus Carlos Quentin to come back and hit like he did last year (.965 OPS), plus Alexei Ramirez to hit like he did last year (.792 OPS). Otherwise, it's going to be a long summer on the South Side.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 5, 2009 -> 06:57 PM) But..but..but...2005! You know, Ozzieball! It's not speed this team has been lacking, it's OBP guys outside of the middle of the order. The 2005 team hit 200 HRs. Remember, that's why they coined the term "smart ball" instead of "small ball." OBP doesn't do you much good without the 3-run HR.

OK -- I'll accept the post that indicates McLouth's defensive metrics are not good over the fact that he received a Gold Glove. I buy the stats more than the votes. Still, I would have made a deal, because McLouth's other stats could have really helped this club. First, we wouldn't have been giving up Brian Anderson, who could have continued to fill his 4th outfielder LIDP role. Second, you can't tell me we are overly concerned about defense in CF. Otherwise we never would have trotted Rob Mackowiak out there, or DeWayne Wise, or Scott Podsednik, or Nick Swisher, or Jerry Owens, or any of the non-Anderson yahoos we've used in CF since Aaron Rowand left us in 2006. Sight unseen, I can't imagine Nate McLouth to be any worse defensively than any non-Anderson player we've put out there in recent years. Third, we need more power AND speed AND OBP in this lineup, and McLouth would have given us all three. And the fact that McLouth has LEFTY power would have been a huge plus. Unless we trade for some new body between now and next season, we're looking at a lineup next year where AJ Pierzynski is the only lefty who can hit a HR, and he's never hit 20 HRs in a year in his career. IMHO, we need to address our offense more than we need a front-line right handed starter. Though I would have been fine had Jake Peavy said yes to that deal, we wouldn't have won anything if we don't address our complete lack of power. If this team could manage even 5 runs/game, we have more than enough pitching to win the division. At just over 4 runs per game, we aren't even going to finish .500. And Jake Peavy wouldn't have changed that outcome one iota. Bear in mind that we are trying to bring up minor leaguers who have never hit a lot of HRs in the minors and projecting them to become power hitters in the major leagues. Well, you might get lucky now and then in that respect, but even in the best circumstances it will take time. So don't tell me Jordan Danks is the answer in CF. He may be, but I expect it will be 3 years, AT LEAST, before he's producing at a major league level, and more like 4 years before he's able to do what McLouth did last year and is doing this year. That same learning curve probably applies to Dayan Viciedo, and we're seeing right now how it applies to Josh Fields. Brian Anderson is another guy who might have been projected to become a decent power hitter, but he's never been given enough ABs to develop into one. Give me someone like Nate McLouth in a heartbeat. He's 27, fast and with an incredible stolen base rate, a lefty, with a solid .350 OBP, and a consistent .450+ power stroke, who can play a position of great need on the Sox. With a pretty cheap 3-year contract, he would be very easy to move after two years if Jordan Danks is really ready to take over. But if he continues to improve on the power side -- say up to 30 HRs -- he'd also be someone who could hold down RF respectably. And with Jermaine Dye likely to be gone before too long, or moved to DH, that's another hole that needs filling. We obviously missed out on McLouth. But if his clone were available, I'd grab him. With what we've got now, we aren't going to make it to the postseason.

Since 2002, the Sox have failed to tally 200 HRs only one year, in 2007 when we lost 90 games. That year we hit 190 HRs. This yrear, with 53 HRs in 53 games, we're obviously on a pace for 162 dingers. That's horrible in the Cell. We might do a little better if Quentin returns to health and stays healthy, and we should expect Ramirez to pick it up like he did last year, but we've got to do a LOT better if we want to contend. Here are the problem positions: CF -- 1 total HR, from Brian Anderson. See my other post as to why I wish we'd picked up Nate McLouth and his 9 HRs. Unless we make a trade, there is no hope for improving these numbers. 2B -- 2 total HRs, both from Jayson Nix in one game. (Nix's other 2 HRs came at SS.) Chris Getz has no HRs, and none should be expected if we keep playing him here. This is why I hope they reconsider playing Beckham mostly at 3B. He has more chance to help close our power gap playing 2B. 3B -- 2 total HRs, by Josh Fields, who hasn't hit a HR since early May. Field's poor play and lack of power argues for putting Beckham here, except that the Sox have at least a possibility of bringing up another power-hitting 3B option in Dayan Viciedo. And Fields, with 23 HRs in 100 games two years ago, also has at least the possibility of finding his power stroke again, whereas Getz never will have one. Maybe Viciedo isn't ready yet. Fine. Then play Fields at 3B and Beckham at 2B. Or play Jayson Nix regularly until Viciedo is ready. (The problem with that is that Nix can back up all the infield positions, while neither Getz nor Fields can.) SS -- 5 HRs total, 3 by Ramirez and 2 by Nix. Alexei has a long way to go to match his 21 HRs from last year. He's on pace for 9-10. Here are the places we need to notch it up a little. LF -- Quentin's 8 HRs are also a huge drop off from his 36 last year. He's on pace for about 25 HRs. Needless to say, Pods has added nothing here. DH -- 9 by Jim Thome. Jim is also not going to make the 34 he hit last season. These are the positions doing as well as last season. 1B -- 7 HRs by Paul Konerko is just about right on pace for last year's 22 HRs. Of course, this is still below Konerko's average. We need some positions to be doing better than last year, but 1B is not it. C -- 5 HRs by AJ is about on pace to match the 13 he had last year, maybe better it by 1 or 2. Finally, this is the ONLY position where we are doing better. RF -- 14 HRs by Jermaine is a better pace than the 34 he posted last year. He might tail off, or get hot, but expect AJ to be back up near 40 HRs by season's end. ****************** Conclusion: The Sox can ill afford to trot out no-power players at 3-5 positions in the lineup every day. I think that's the main reason we brought up Gordon Beckham. But he can fill only 1 slot, when we have at least 3 major holes, 4 if Quentin is sidelined, and 5 if Ramirez doesn't find his power stroke again. So, how do we fix this? Gordon Beckham's call up is a good start. I would also call up Viciedo soon, perhaps around the All-Star break. Give Jayson Nix more playing time until then, or hope Fields can find his power stroke. I would dump DeWayne Wise. I'd trade Chris Getz or send him back to AAA until we trade him. Podsednik would play only if he's hot; but I'd really we rather play Brian Anderson until we trade for someone or until Jordan Danks is ready. It's not going to be easy, but we can ill afford a no-power lineup in the Cell. The Sox don't need to get all their HRs from just a couple spots in the lineup. My preference would be 9 guys who can each hit more than 10 HRs per year. I'd be willing to let in 1 light hitter, if they compensated with speed and a high OBP, but do we have that guy? Chris Getz is not it. Nor is Scott Podsednik, except in short stretches. Looking down the line, the prospects get even scarier if we let go of Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Paul Konerko. This is one reason I think we'll be picking up Dye's option next year, or writing a new contract for a couple more years, even if it means moving him to DH most of the time. We don't have anyone else who can be counted on for 35-40 HRs per year. ************ Please offer better solutions if you've got them. The bottom line is we cannot fix this in my opinion based on what we have in the pipeline. Kenny's going to have to make a trade or two or we're going to have to be active in free agency. The White Sox cannot field a winning team in the Cell without hitting a lot more HRs than what we're looking at.

Just a couple of responses. First, I'm no expert on Nate McLouth, but how did he win a Gold Glove if he's not much as a fielder? Maybe he's not Brian Anderson, but he's got to be a significant defensive upgrade over DeWayne Wise or Scott Podsednik. Second, we have no left handed power other than Jim Thome in our lineup, who will be gone next year. McLouth had 26 HRs last year at age 26, with 9 so far this year. So far, our CFs have combined for a total of 1 HR, by Brian Anderson. Wise is still searching for his first extra base hit. And we know Pods has no power. For the Sox to win in our ballpark, we need a team that can hit the ball out of the park. Third, Jordan Danks isn't going to help us this year or next year. To think otherwise is equivalent to thinking that Getz or Fields were ready this year. McLouth is a proven major league player now. If the Sox want to repeat as division champs this year, they need to improve their offense far more than their pitching. McLouth would have been a solid and significant upgrade in CF. The guy has a consistent OBP around .350, which would place him third on our club. Plus, he has 64 career stolen bases, and has been caught stealing only 5 times! That's enough speed and OBP to hit him lead off if we wanted to. The only issue for me would have been what it might have cost us. The Braves didn't give up any top prospects, so I'm not sure we would have had to either. And for three guys who might make it to the major leagues and might be players if they get there, it seems like it would have been a tiny cost to acquire a real CF with speed, power, a solid OBP, and enough fielding to win a GG.

Nate McLouth, the gold glove winning CF for the Pirates, just ended up in Atlanta for 3 minor league prospects, one rated #4, another #7, and a third unrated. Further, McLouth is 27 and signed for 3 more seasons. He's got speed, some pop, and enough of an eye to have an OBP in the mid-.300s. I don't follow the NL that much, but am I wrong in thinking this guy could have been the answer we've been seeking in CF since Aaron Rowand rode out of town? Plus he's a lefty with some power, and by next year when Thome is gone, the Sox will have no one who can fill that job. What am I missing? Couldn't we have bettered Atlanta's deal and filled a glaring hole in our lineup and roster?

I think it is a smart move to bring Beckham up now, when he's hot, and the Sox in need of an offensive jolt. To maximize his value, I believe Beckham should get most of his playing time at 2B. Getz, frankly, is likely hitting about as well as he's going to hit. .248/.309/.307/.616. He might be able to up his average a bit and with it his OBP, but his slugging is never going to get out of the low .300s. His OBP is also too poor to hit him at the top of the lineup. At 3B, Josh Fields is hitting only slightly better than Getz. .244/.309.331/.640. But in 2007, he posted .244/.308/.480./.788, when he hit 17 doubles and 23 HRs. So the potential upside with Fields fixing the hitch in his swing is much higher than Getz's will ever be. For this reason, Fields should be given more time to right himself. Of course, now that Betemit is gone, Fields will also get some time backing up Paul Konerko and subbing for Jim Thome at DH. Of course, Beckham can't be the complete savior because he can only fix one position on the field. The Sox still have DeWayne Wise on the roster for some unknown reason, and they'll have Getz around, even though he should be the third choice at 2B, behind Beckham and Nix, which is the only position he can play. That means dead weight for two offensive positons. Wise can be let go when Quentin returns, but what will force Getz back to AAA? The other question is where do you hit Beckham in the lineup? For the moment, I would put him in the bottom third to liven up that part of the order. I would also be playing Brian Anderson everyday down there, and Josh Fields. It wouldn't matter to me much where they hit. But I think in the not too distant future -- sometime this year -- the Sox would be well served to move Beckham to the #2 hole.

I was thinking of starting a thread like this when I signed on today, and lo and behold, here it is! I must add my voice to the original poster's. Starting DeWayne Wise over Brian Anderson is a baseball crime. There is NO possible argument for making that move. Anderson is a better hitter against right handed pitchers, and against lefties. He's clearly a vastly better outfielder. And I even think he's a better base runner, who could steal a fair amount if they would play him. Ozzie's infatuation with Wise reminds me of the way he loved Timo Perez in 2005. Perez couldn't hit a lick, but when first Carl Everett tweaked his hammy and was out for 5 games, then Scott Podsednik went on the DL, Perez got regular playing time. Our offense was horrible, and Cleveland started getting closer and closer and closer. Fortunately, those guys came back in time, we got some heroics from Joe Crede, and we righted the ship. Who was the guy in Ozzie's doghouse then? Ross Gload. Ross actually got sent down to AAA when those guys were out, where he proceeded to go 45 for 107, with 24 runs, 24 RBI, 7 HRs, 14 2Bs. Meanwhile, Timo put up Ofers day after day. The sad fact of the present situation is that it looked to me like Brian Anderson was proving himself capable of being the everyday CF we've been looking for since we let Rowand go. The key is that he's taking the BB now. He's already walked more than he did last year. That means he's not swinging at the breaking ball out of the zone. Now the balls BA swings at he can do something with. And once he's more comfortable there, I think his power will finally come b/c he'll be able to swing with more authority. Think of it this way. Between Fields, Anderson, and Getz, who do you think has a future at his position with the White Sox? To me the answer is clearly Brian Anderson. Getz should give way to Beckham, while Fields should give way to Viciedo. But Anderson really could be the answer in CF. The only guy who can fix this is Kenny Williams. He has to dump Wise off the team. Don't give Ozzie the choice.

Why is Wise starting and not Anderson? Wise is worthless as a player. Anderson has finally proven he can hit respectably. This is where Ozzie drives me crazy. He plays guys he likes rather than guys who can play.

I want Beckham to be a permanent fixture at 2B when he comes up and stays. Let Viciedo cover 3B if Fields can't get the hitch in his swing fixed. If Josh succeeds -- and he'll have to find some power, not just singles, to do so -- then move Viciedo the outfield. Chris Getz is a nice little ballplayer, but the Sox are going to need all the power hitters they can find as Thome, Dye, and Konerko ride off into the sunset. Personally, I think we're going to keep Dye on next year for just that reason. He's going to lead the team in HRs, so it would be a huge blow to cut both him and Thome next season. I'd say keep Dye, even at $12 million, and move him to DH.

The Sox have to get the kind of consistent starting they have gotten after the 20-1 debacle. Colon has to pitch solidly at least 50% of the time. The bullpen can't afford to blow late leads, as it has several times. And we need a couple more guys to start hitting. I'd say the key is Ramirez, who seems to be starting to turn it on again. But we also need a healthy Quentin, and for 2 of the 3 guys at 2B, 3B, and CF to hit.

Hey, if we want a rotation with 5 lefty starters, then Bedard's our man. Just trade Gavin Floyd for him, and bring up Poreda to fill out the fifth slot.

As much as I'd like to see Peavy at the front of the rotation, it's not happening. It's not the Padres that are in control of this, it is Jake Peavy. There is no reason for him to change his mind because the Sox are not likely to up their bid to him as time goes on. His value, in part, was to salvage this season.

If Peavy doesn't want to come here, then we would be foolish to continue wanting him, wouldn't we? Guy sounds like his family is more important than competing for a World Series. Granted, he's a good to great pitcher, and I would have been happy with the trade if he'd said yes. But at this point there is no way I could see him competing hard for the Sox. He may not be the head case that Javier Vazquez was, but I lost a lot of enthusiasm for this trade as soon as Peavy sounded like he couldn't be bothered to pitch for a team that has only had one losing season since 2000. Rather stay on a team that has had 5 losing seasons since 2000. Plus, Peavy lost both postseason games he has pitched, registering an ERA near 9 in a loss to the Cardinals one year, and a 16+ ERA in a loss to the Cardinals the next year. Again, I would have been cool with the trade had Peavy jumped at the chance to compete in the better league, for a better team. When he didn't, I say "move on" and feel like we may have avoided a mistake.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Apr 7, 2009 -> 05:11 PM) Maybe it's too early for this, but Josh has shown enough in spring and in this first game to warrant a shot in the 2 slot IMO. I think we should put out this lineup: Getz 2B Fields 3B Dye RF* Thome DH Quentin LF Konerko 1B Pierzynski Anderson CF Ramirez SS# *Until Quentin gets back I'd like to move him down just a tad. I'm not at all concerned about him long-term, but this is an entirely new situation for him. Coming off a breakout year, then surgery, and now trying to prove himself as a slugger again, it looks like he's trying to hit for power right now instead of staying on the ball and making solid contact up the middle and the other way, letting the power come as it will. I think he'll get it figured out, but it may take him a bit longer than your average veteran so I'd make the move. It would only be temporary though. #I like Alexei in the 9 spot because we'd be rolling the lineup over with a good hitter with some speed and power. I agree with some of this, as I posted on the Lineup thread. Flipping Quentin with Dye until he starts to produce is what I wrote there. I also would move Fields up, but I'd hit him leadoff to keep a better lefty/righty mix. With Wise/Anderson in the 9 hole, you don't want Wise/Getz back to back (which they are now). My other move would be to push Ramirez into the 6 hole, with Konerko dropping to 8th. The reason for this is that Paulie hit worse than Quentin, Thome, Dye, and Ramirez last year, and AJ is needed to break up the righties.

I would give the Sox at least an equal chance of repeating as division champs as the Angels, though I won't quibble with anyone who rates the Angels' prospects higher. I just don't see why so many people are picking the Indians or the Twins or anyone else ahead of us in the AL Central. The Indians got a career year from Cliff Lee last season and it still didn't do them any good. This year, Lee, even if he pitches well, is going to be at least 7 games worse than last season. Where are they going to make that up, and more? Carl Pavano? And you have to project Travis Hafner coming all the way back, or their offense will continue to be no better than the Sox'. The Twins, meanwhile, are missing Mauer, which will seriously hurt their offense. Plus, Liriano isn't looking like the world beater he did before he hurt his arm. He's a quality pitcher, but hasn't shown he's the second coming of Johan Santana yet. Meanwhile, I'll take the Sox' starting 5. I would confess I don't think both Contreras and Colon will make it through the season. But we only need one to be good-average. I think we've got enough depth to cover a 5th slot if one of them can't go. And I'll take Buehrle/Floyd/Danks over any other top-3 in the AL Central. Plus, our bullpen is solid. Clayton Richard would be great down there if he can stay in long relief. We don't have any guys who are going to blow up, like some relievers did last season. And Bobby Jenks is a solid closer. On offense, the worst that can be said is we have one hole in the lineup. But who doesn't? Ozzie will eventually see the light and move Wise/Anderson down to 9th to minimize the damage, playing Anderson more for his exceptional defense. Otherwise, there's no reason to think we can't do better than last season's 811 runs. Fields is going to hit better than what we had at 3B. Getz could come close to matching Cabrera's output. Quentin may not match what he did, even without missing time, but Dye/Konerko/Thome/AJ should do as well. And Ramirez is likely to improve. Plus, we have some great players in AAA this year, which give us insurance should something go wrong. Gordon Beckham, Dayan Viciedo, Aaron Poreda. I don't think this is a dominant Sox team. But I just don't see any of the AL Central rivals as any better than we are.

I could actually see Josh Fields hitting lead off on this team, with Getz second. But Ramirez at the top would also be okay with me. The Wise/Anderson mix has to hit last, with Anderson getting more than half the time in the field. I also think Quentin is going to take a little bit to come around offensively again. I would have no trouble flipping him with Dye to start the year. When he starts to hit, move him back up. My other move would be to drop Konerko down to 8th unless he proves he's out of last year's slump. Look at all the hitters who are better than Paulie -- Quentin, Thome, Dye, Ramirez. All should hit ahead of him. So should the 1 + 2 hitters. And so should AJ for lefty/righty balance. That leaves Konerko 8th. If he wants to move up, he's got to get his OPS back up into the .800s or better. My lineup would be: R Fields or Ramirez L Getz R Dye L Thome R Quentin R Fields or Ramirez L Pierzynski R Konerko R/L Anderson/Wise

Of the four AL teams to make the playoffs last year, I think it is equally or more likely the Sox will repeat as division champion than the Rays or Angels will. The Angels are missing Escobar, Lackey, and Santana, who start the season on the DL. Their 62-game closer moved on, for a team that overachieved by 11 games from what their run differential would have predicted. Plus, their competition appears to have improved. The Angels may well find their way back to the top of that division, but they aren't going to approach 100 wins in doing so. They'll be lucky to win 90. The Rays are in the very tough AL East. They also overachieved by 5 wins from their expected mark. The Yankees are loaded and motivated, and very likely to knock them off IMHO. Plus, it's one thing to surprise everyone. It's much tougher when people target you. Look at the Sox from 2005-06, or the Tigers fall off after they made the WS. I don't think the Rays will make the playoffs this year. The White Sox, meanwhile, are likely to gain from another infusion of some youth. It was the key to their success last season. If Contreras and Colon (or even just one of them) are able to pitch anywhere near their career norms, then the Sox look to have the best starting pitching in the AL Central, with as good a bullpen as anyone in the division as well. We're also certain to lead the division in HRs, and be competitive in runs scored. Plus, the Sox actually underachieved by a game given their run differential. The team that may be most likely other than the White Sox to repeat is Boston, as a wild card. I see them passing the Rays, and staying ahead of Toronto (which has slipped). Plus, they should win in the low-to-mid 90s, which would be enough to win the AL Central or AL West.

The Twins are the product of their bizarre ballpark. But then, so are the Sox to a large extent. Lots of thumpers for the Cell's launching pad. Are the Twins really building an outdoor ballpark? It's the dumbest thing they've done in Minnesota since their football team built an indoor field. The Vikings used to rule the NFL Central because frigid field conditions were a huge advantage. They went indoors and largely stunk it up for years. On the flip side, if the Twins move outside, they will no longer be able to get by with a slap hitting no HR lineup. They'll drop down near the Royal's level.