VAfan

Sheets should get most starts at DH when facing right handers. The difference between him and Vaughn was massive last year. Maybe Vaughn closes that gap, but to start him over Sheets against a RH would be like starting Leury Garcia over Luis Robert in CF. The wRC+ gap between Sheets and Vaughn was around 80, with Vaughn being the second worst hitter on the team, better than only Zavala. Just look at the numbers in the original post above.

I'm not an apologist for the front office, which I'm often made out to be. I pulled for Rodon being re-signed more than just about anyone on this site, and think it was a big mistake that the Sox didn't do it, for example. I think the Sox now have serious pitching concerns, and if the pitching really implodes, it's very hard to hit your way out of it. But we'll find out soon enough.

Reasons I wanted the Sox to keep Rodon. 1. Best starter on the Sox first half. 2. Best pitcher in AL first half. 3. Built up to 132 innings last year after 2 years of next to nothing. Suggests fatigue was his arm problem at the end of last year, not some structural issue. 4. Would have given the Sox 6 legit starters, plus Lopez. 5. Could have used a 6-man rotation to lighten everyone's load, keep Keuchel from reaching the innings needed to vest him another year, and keep Kopech from being gassed before the playoffs. 6. If someone went down, could just shift to normal 5-man rotation to cover gaps. 7. Left handed 8. Only required 2-year commitment, with opt out after 1 year, if the Sox matched the Giants' offer. Had a QO been attached to Rodon, would he have gotten even this much? At this point, it's water under the bridge. The Sox are short on quality starters, and without Kelly for now and Crochet for the year, short in the bullpen as well. They are going to have to hit their way to a title, it appears.

I should have given some context to the ABs that we won't have in 2022, so I edited the original post to add it.

So when the Sox rake on offense I guess all you guys will just complain about something else. Not sure why appreciating the Sox is seen so negatively by Sox "fans". And if the Sox win anything, just don't dare come on here and celebrate it.

People are raving about the Dodgers and the Blue Jays offenses. But let's just look at how much better the White Sox offense is likely to be this year. Here are the deadbeats of the 2021 offense. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Hernandez 194 45 3 0.232 0.309 0.299 0.608 69 Eaton 189 38 5 0.209 0.298 0.344 0.642 76 Mercedes 240 65 7 0.271 0.328 0.404 0.732 100 Goodwin 235 52 8 0.221 0.319 0.374 0.693 90 Mendick 164 36 2 0.22 0.303 0.289 0.589 64 Hamilton 127 28 2 0.22 0.242 0.378 0.62 67 Lamb 113 24 6 0.212 0.321 0.389 0.71 94 Madrigal 200 61 2 0.305 0.349 0.425 0.774 112 Jimenez (2021) 213 53 10 0.249 0.303 0.437 0.74 100 Vaughn (against RH) 298 66 7 0.222 0.277 0.332 0.61 69 Collins 195 41 4 0.21 0.33 0.338 0.669 66 Zavala 93 17 5 0.183 0.24 0.376 0.616 66 Totals 2261 526 61 0.232 I'm not calculating collective OBP, SLG, OPS or OPS+, but you can see the situation. We had 2 players at league average - Mercedes and Jimenez - and 1 above - Madrigal. Everyone else was below, often well below. EDIT: The 2021 team had 5357 ABs, with a .256 BA, .336 OBP, and .422 SLG, and .758 OPS. Most of these guys pulled those averages down. Overall, 2261/5357 is 42% of the ABs. Now here is a possible lineup of the 2022 Sox using their 2021 numbers. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Anderson 527 163 17 0.309 0.338 0.469 0.806 118 Robert total 275 93 13 0.338 0.378 0.567 0.945 156 Abreu 566 148 30 0.261 0.351 0.481 0.831 125 Grandal 279 67 23 0.24 0.42 0.52 0.939 157 Jimenez (2020) 213 63 14 0.296 0.332 0.559 0.891 139 Sheets (v. RHP) 160 38 11 0.268 0.344 0.556 0.9 145 Vaughan (v. LHP) 119 32 8 0.269 0.383 0.555 0.938 153 Pollock 384 114 21 0.297 0.355 0.536 0.892 137 Moncada 520 137 14 0.263 0.375 0.412 0.787 117 Harrison 505 141 8 0.279 0.341 0.4 0.741 106 Totals 3548 996 159 0.28 (Note that Excel rounded off numbers, so 0.28 equal .280, for example.) I've used Jimenez's 2020 numbers to approximate what he might look like in 2022. I've used the splits for Sheets and Vaughn because they make a perfect platoon. And I've moved Yoan Moncada to the bottom of the lineup because that's probably where he should hit unless he returns to his 2019 numbers. There are 10 players above, because I've put Sheets and Vaughn together as a platoon. Here are the other 3 players likely to stay on the roster when the team cuts down to 26 players. I used Reese McGuire's totals against right handers because he has massive split differences and would likely play most of his time against righties. EDIT: The group above, if healthy, could end up with as many as 4500 ABs. Robert could add 250-300, Grandal could add 100, Jimenez could add 300, Sheets/Vaughn could add 250, and Pollock could add 50. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Garcia 415 111 5 0.267 0.335 0.376 0.711 96 McGuire (v. RHP) 158 43 1 0.272 0.333 0.367 0.7 95 Engel 123 31 7 0.252 0.336 0.496 0.832 124 This trio could get the lions share of the remaining ABs. And here are a couple of tidbits to consider. What if Luis Robert hit like he did after he returned from injury last year, or if Moncada returned to his 2019 numbers? Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Moncada (2019) 511 161 25 0.315 0.367 0.548 0.915 140 Robert after return 180 63 12 0.35 0.389 0.622 1.011 170 ************* What to make of these numbers? 1. Everyone of the main starters has an OPS above league average. To provide some context here, the Blue Jays led baseball last year with a collective OPS+ of 115. The White Sox were 4th at 107. Every hitter on the Sox except Josh Harrison is likely to exceed an OPS+ of 115, often by a LOT. And the 3 bench players are divided, with Engel above, and Garcia and McGuire just below league average. 2. Most of the team is getting better. Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Gavin Sheets, and Andrew Vaughn are all on the upswing. Yoan Moncada could be too. It's possible that Abreu, Grandal, Pollock and Harrison will decline somewhat. But with more on the upswing, it's possible the Sox could hit better than these numbers. 3. The aggregate totals are way below the likely totals because they include partial years from key players. You have partial years or small samples from Robert, Jimenez, Grandal, Sheets/Vaughn, and to a lesser extent Anderson and Pollock. So the HR's you might expect from this group, for example, should be much higher. The Sox led the AL in HRs in 2020. They might vie for the ML lead in 2022. 4. Unfortunately, there may be injuries this year too. But the team is in a better place to respond. Of course we don't want to lose Robert or Jimenez or Grandal again. But if we do, we are in a better position to respond. Pollock can play CF, or Engel can. Sheets/Vaughn can cover the outfield corners. Garcia can cover everywhere. And we still have some productive hitters in AAA in Jake Burger, for example. ************ So, while I'm concerned about the pitching, I believe the White Sox offense could be the best in baseball this year if everyone stays healthy. EDIT: One thing that's kind of fascinating is that I looked up the top scoring White Sox team of all time. It's the 2000 club, which scored 978 runs. They had a collective OPS of .826. The 2021 team had an OPS of .758. 7 of the 2022 regulars exceeded an .826 OPS last year or in Jimenez's case, in 2020. So, if all went perfectly, perhaps the Sox could beat that total. But 978 runs? The Astros led baseball last year with 863. Last time a MLB team exceeded 900 runs was in 2019, when 4 teams did it. GO SOX!!

That's obviously what the Sox front office thought, or they would have handled him differently. Not much excuse for not making the qualifying offer, since it was apparent to outsiders like us he wouldn't take it. Rodon pitched well past May last year, and while he was in form and before fatigue set in, he was the best pitcher in the AL. You can't really "replace" the best pitcher in the AL. So, it seems to me it comes down to whether he might last longer now that he built up a 132 inning season last year. That's almost as many innings as he had as a rookie. In year 2, he pitched 165 innings. For my calculus, what would you pay for top form Rodon in the playoffs? Because he would be your ACE. Your top starter. Someone who could win you multiple postseason games. That's why I wanted the Sox to keep him. To have that chance, even if there was some risk he wouldn't be there by October. The other reason? So you don't have to look at as many starts from Keuchel, Lopez, Velasquez or Cueto, and can still keep all your guys fresh.

I was on Rodon more than anyone on Soxtalk, and have the posts to prove it. I think the Sox will regret letting him get out the door. Especially without any draft pick compensation. But I disagree about Pollock, who is a better outfielder and costs far less than Michael Conforto, who everyone was clamoring for on this site. As for Cueto, the way the deal is structured it only has potential upside for the Sox. If he pitches well, they pay him. If he doesn't, they don't. He has the potential to be a better starter filler than Lopez or Velasquez, who are probably better off being used in 2-3 inning stints. Yesterday, for example, Velasquez shut down the Cubs the first two innings, then couldn't get out of the 3rd.

So why exactly are you a Sox fan?

Not sure what's so bad about Cueto. He was 7-7 last year for the Giants, with a 4.08 ERA and FIP over 114 innings.

There is a lot of hindsight being played out here. I think not keeping Rodon was the biggest mistake, as they wouldn't need Velasquez, and could cover for the Lynn injury. And even if Lynn had been healthy, they could have rolled with a 6 man rotation with Lopez still in reserve. As for the rest, they flipped Kimbrel for Pollock, who would have been the 3rd best hitter on the team last year. He hits righties and lefties equally well. Graveman and Kelly were essential adds to the pen. McGuire is a much better bench catcher. Harrison is a league average 2B. Garcia covers everywhere in a pinch. But they also didn't do a lot of stupid things that have been suggested here. Like trading Sheets or Vaughn, or signing Conforto, or blowing up the salary structure by signing 32 year old Semien to a 7 year deal. The team is better on offense, potentially by a lot. Most of that is returning guys being healthy. But it is still better. The bullpen, even without Crochet, could be better. Will depend on how well the extra guys pitch. The biggest hit has been to the starting pitching. That's not good. It could be bad enough to put us into a division race instead of coasting. But the team is not final on opening day. Just look at Atlanta last year. Worst regular season record of playoff teams to WS winners. I would give the team a C+ or B. Depends on whether they get production out of Velasquez and the bullpen extras. ************** Also, one thing us fans do is just assume deals can be done, when it may be that they couldn't. For example, Joc Pederson turned down the Sox' offer last offseason before we signed Adam Eaton. Who knows what the A's wanted for Sean Manaea from us. We might think they got nothing and would could have topped it, but maybe they wanted Colson Montgomery or Wes Kath from us instead of the shortstop they got from San Diego, and a pitcher we shouldn't surrender. Or maybe they didn't like any offer from us. We don't have the highest rated farm system. Also, the Kimbrel option needed to be exercised before anything else took place. So do you just jettison him for nothing? I'm glad they kept him and flipped him for AJ Pollock, who has been a very good hitter the last two years and will lengthen our lineup. Did that keep us from tendering Rodon? I doubt it. The other thing to consider is that players sometimes don't want to play for the Sox. Wheeler is a case in point. We'd be much better with Wheeler than Keuchel, for sure. But he wouldn't take our money. Marcus Stroman announced he wouldn't play for Tony LaRussa, so it didn't matter if we wanted him or not. It seems like a very easy job when you don't actually have to do it. Imagine if you had thousands of people looking at the job you do for a living and nitpicking everything you did. What kind of report card grade would you get?

Give the guy a break. I'm sure everyone making a snarky comment here has done it many times, though probably not in a parking lot. The Sox got better with this trade.

My only regret among the Sox' moves this offseason was not tendering and then resigning Rodon. He was our best starter for most of the year, and seemed to wear out from fatigue rather than injury. With Rodon, there wouldn't have been a need for Velasquez. They could have rolled with 6 starters with Lopez in reserve, and when anyone went down, gone with 5. Of course that's $19M more than the Sox have spent, putting them up against the tax. But the team would be much stronger with Rodon at the top of the rotation and everyone else sliding back a notch. As it is now, the Sox are also a bit thin in the bullpen without Crochet and Kelly still not ready. The young guys have to do well this year. Last year, guys like Marshall, Heuer and Foster got shelled. But we are where we are. The offense should be vastly improved. It needs to be.

Ciuffo has a grand total of 56 major league PAs. McGuire has 400. So you can't even get a handle on Ciuffo. Plus, I assume Ciuffo still has options.

I didn't run the numbers, but I was thinking the same thing about Adolfo. Now that he's finally healthy, he might have just as much upside as Cespedes or Colas. The challenge is that without having proven anything in the majors, he's not going to move ahead of any of the many Sox outfielders. It we hadn't added Pollock, they might have kept him as the 26th guy. But even then, it doesn't help his development to sit unused on a major league bench. They could keep him temporarily with expanded rosters, but would that improve his trade value? For the Sox, I'm sure they'd love to give him another year in AAA and see how it turns out. Next year, will Pollock walk? Engel has 1 more ARB year, then he's a FA. Adolfo might be a very good prospect in a year. And he'd only be 26.

Seby doesn't add anything. He's a negative both offensively and defensively. His one main highlight last year was working the walk in the Field of Dreams game so Tim could hit a walk-off HR. And it's not like he would necessarily get snapped up by someone else. My guess is he could clear waivers and get re-signed for AAA depth.

I knew nothing about him 30 minutes ago, but a quick look on baseball reference shows he's defensively a vast improvement over Collins. For example, McGuire 20 steals, 11 caught stealing last year. Also 4 Passed balls and 17 wild pitches. Collins 45 steals, 9 caught stealing. 3 PB, 37 WP. Very similar number of innings. (Seby Zavala? In about 60% of number of games as the other 2, he was a negative defensively, with 8 PBs, 15 WP, and only 3 CS on 24 SBs.) Also, McGuire has very pronounced splits. He hit pretty well his first two seasons, on very limited ABs. Last year, not so good. But against righties, he was less horrible -- 91 wRC+. His career split against righties is 102 wRC+. (Versus lefties it is 17.) So, he's nothing to get too excited about, but he's definitely a defensive upgrade.

I know Manaea is the pitcher everyone covets. Here are a few reasons why I don't think a trade for him is a good idea. 1. Oakland tends to fleece the Sox on this type of deal. Anyone remember the Jeff Samardzija trade? One year of Samardzija (and Michael Ynoa) for Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley, and Rangel Ravelo. Samardzija went 11-13 for the Sox in his one season, and gave up more hits than any pitcher that year. Lots of names have been bandied about for Manaea. Maybe the Sox don't have another Marcus Semien or Chris Bassitt, but you can bet Oakland will do a good job picking out the best guy(s) the Sox would be open to trading, who will make one year of Manaea seem like it never happened. 2. Some of the trade ideas would rob the Sox of guys who could be very productive in 2022. For example, Gavin Sheets' name gets offered a lot in this type of deal. Well the Sox have no one who can come close to replacing Sheets' production against right handed pitching. So trading him would weaken the team considerably this season (and beyond). Other names include Jake Burger, who doesn't have a role unless Yoan Moncada gets hurt, and then would likely be the replacement. The Sox used several of these kinds of guys in 2021 to keep it together when we lost players to injury. If we weaken our AAA ready depth in a trade, it could have consequences. 3. Manaea is on a one-year $9.75 million deal. He's not cheap. Are the Sox ready to add another $10M to this year's payroll? Because Oakland isn't going to want anyone in return who would save the Sox money. 4. Manaea is a free agent next year, with Scott Boras as his agent. What are the odds the Sox would extend Manaea after this year? They seem very slim to me. Boras will want to make Manaea the highest paid Sox pitcher, when he's no better than their 4th best. The Sox need to be spending that money extending or trying to extend Lucas Giolito, not Sean Manaea. 5. Manaea isn't that great of a pitcher. He did give the A's 32 starts and 179 innings. But is ERA was 3.91. That's Dylan Cease, who has much more upside. On the Sox, Manaea would be their 5th best starter, behind Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech. He'd provide a lot more innings than Kopech, but no one thinks he's a better pitcher. He'd be a positive for sure, especially compared to Keuchel. But let's not pretend we're adding a TOR guy here. 6. As the Sox 5th best starter, he'd help during the regular season, but not so much in the playoffs. Do the Sox really need a lot more pitching to reach the playoffs? Manaea would be a positive, and better than Dallas Keuchel, but it's not clear that he's essential or that much of a difference maker. The Sox should be able to win their division given their lineup and top pitchers. 7. What do you do with Dallas Keuchel? Keuchel probably has next to no trade value at this point, and it's unlikely any team would even take him on without the Sox covering most of his contract. But if you added Manaea, someone would have to go, and Keuchel is the most logical choice. Do the Sox just cut him? If you don't get some salary relief, then adding Manaea's contract pushes the Sox every closer to the luxury tax. Keuchel was a quality pitcher as recently as 2020, getting Cy Young votes that year. He may get shelled, as he was in Oakland yesterday. But he also got hit but not hurt by the Dodgers in his previous outing. Can he pitch to a .500 record? If so, then the difference between him and Manaea is not enough to surrender much in trade. Conclusion I'd support the trade, but only if the return to Oakland is for a deep prospect or two in the Sox system who isn't likely to be ready during the Sox 2022-23 "window." I expect Oakland will want more than that.

The Sox are not trading Gavin Sheets. They have no one who can come close to replacing his production against right handed pitchers. To trade him would create a hole in the lineup. Plus, he's cheap and under control. Vaughn? Second worst hitter on the team against righties last year. I'm sure he will improve, but so will Sheets. Sox need more power hitting lefties, not fewer ones.

Updating this given the addition of AJ Pollock today. Against lefties. Plate appearances in parentheses. Robert (68) 231 Grandal (96) 184 Abreu (153) 161 Vaughn (141) 156 AJ Pollock (139) 132 Anderson (143) 125 Harrison (141) 114 Moncada (135) 99 Garcia (139) 91 Engel (49) 76 Zavala (30) 74 Eloy (59) 60 Collins (57) 57 -- sent to AAA Sheets (19) - 26 Against righties. Engel (91) 154 Grandal (279) 150 Sheets (160) 143 AJ Pollock (283) 140 Robert (228) 135 Moncada (462) 129 Anderson (408) 118 Abreu (506) 116 Eloy (172) 116 Garcia (335) 101 Collins (172) 101 - sent to AAA Harrison (359) 99 Vaughn (328) 68 Zavala (74) 63 Based on this, I would expect the lineup to be something like: 1. Anderson 125/118 - SS (with Garcia backing up) 2. Robert 231/135 - CF (with Engel and Pollock backing up) 3. Abreu 161/116 - 1B (with Grandal, Sheets and Vaughn backing up) 4. Grandal 184/150 - C (with Zavala backing up) 5. Jimenez 60/116 (skewed numbers) - LF (with Pollock, Vaughn, Sheets, and Engel backing up) 6. Moncada 99/129 - 3B (with Garcia and Harrison backing up) 7. Pollock 132/140 - RF (with Engel, Vaaughn and Sheets backing up) 8. Sheets/Vaughn 143/156 - DH (with Grandal, Abreu, and Jimenez also getting time here) 9. Harrison/Garcia 114/101 - 2B (with Vaughn the emergency backup) I expect Moncada to hit better this year, and Eloy to excel again. If they do, the Sox could have an above league average bat at every position, with quite a few players well above league average.

Anderson and Robert certainly are awesome. Watched part 2 of the Tim Anderson story today. Well worth watching. Sox have a very deep offense now.

NO. Sheets put up a 143 wRC+ as a rookie against right handers last year. He's cheap and controlled, and one of the few lefty power guys the Sox have. Maybe pitchers figure him out, but it seems more likely he's going to continue to improve.

Boras is his agent. Sox don't have a good track record there.

One year of Manaea? No thanks. I saw three trade ideas for him, and none were worth it. We've tended to get fleeced by Oakland on one-year pitcher deals.

Okay Ray Ray. I just complimented you and now you write "trade Sheets." What???? That would be a HORRIBLE move. Sheets crushes right handers better than most of our STARs. And he's only going to get better.