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The OFFICIAL "I was wrong about Joe Crede" thread
VAfan replied to shawnhillegas's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I've always been a supporter of Joe Crede, even when he couldn't hit a lick. At the start of this season, however, I was finally ready to "dump" him to make way for Josh Fields, who I didn't think should be yo-yo'ed up and down. Now, after only a week of the season, I'm very glad we didn't sell low on Joe Crede. It looks like he may be back to the stroke he had in 2006, when he finally hit 30 HRs and approached 100 RBI. And with a young player ahead of him that can actually get on base -- Carlos Quentin -- Crede can provide that value from the 8 hole, which will make our lineup very difficult to face for a pitcher. Plus, Crede has that "clutch" element -- to hit when it counts -- that is invaluable but is missing from many ballplayers. So what do we do going forward? We play Joe Crede. We keep Josh Fields. Crede is not going to remain with us as a free agent. Not unless he changes agents. And even then, his back problems are too risky to reward him with a big contract. So I see us as just taking advantage of what he can give us, from at least now until late July. At that point, depending on where we are, if he's still healthy, we may consider moving him. In the meantime, Fields is in reserve, ready to go if Joe's back tightens up. The way the Tigers have started has opened a doorway for this season that I didn't think would be there. I thought we'd be better -- .500 or a little higher -- but not able to overtake Detroit and Cleveland, and very unlikely to win enough for a wild card berth. Now, the doorway is open a little wider. While it is, we have to go for it as much as we can. That means keeping Joe Crede right where he is. -
I've only seen him a tiny bit too, but I'm ready to eat a little crow from a post I made on the Ramirez-starting-CF-thread, where I touted Anderson and said we didn't need both Swisher and Quentin. Now, I'm very quickly starting to come around to the idea of an outfield of Quentin, Swisher and Dye for most of the time. It's the ability to get on base and mash the ball. Wow, what a concept!! The Sox (esp. Ozzie) may finally be starting to get it. If Quentin can keep his production around .275/.350/.460 or above, he'd make all the difference to our lineup, esp. with Crede hitting again. (Now just put Ramirez in the 9 hole, and we've got ourselves a team.) Behind those three, I would still keep Anderson, who has value as a LIDP. He should be in the game every time Jenks is. Ramirez should get his shot at 2B, but also can play SS and OF so that Pablo Ozuna is really unnecessary. I also hope Jerry Owens is left in AAA to rehab the entire year. If I could trust Ozzie using him only occasionally as LH bat and pinch runner, I'd keep him over Ozuna, but I don't trust Ozzie yet.
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It sickens me as a Sox fan to see management be so boneheaded. Why in hell don't we see Brian Anderson in CF after another very good spring? Because Ozzie is still holding some grudge from two seasons ago? That's ridiculous, Ozzie. Anderson is the only good defensive outfielder we have. And he appears to have begun to turn the corner offensively. At the very least, he deserves a solid month to see if he can build on his spring offensive numbers, not an occasional shot as a pinch runner (?)/ defensive replacement. We ought to see if 1 of the outfielders we drafted and developed internally can amount to something, as we've traded away or let go everyone else. Frankly, after nearly 40 years of being a Sox fan, I'm getting sick enough of it that my new hometown team, the Nationals, are appearing quite good by comparison. I live outside DC (thus my VAfan moniker), and I must say, the Nats are running circles around the Sox these days. Not only do they have a manager who gets it -- he makes all the right decisions between competing players -- but the front office has made some very astute deals to infuse the club with some young talent without surrendering anything of real value in return. Millege for Schneider and Church? That's a steal, especially when you can just sign Paul LoDuca to replace Schneider. It improves two slots at once. They also added Elijah Dukes and Wily Mo Pena for nothing. Perhaps they won't pan out, but the potential is there, and it is probably higher than Carlos Quentin's potential (for which we gave up more). I'm never NOT going to be a Sox fan. But I'm fed up with the direction we've taken since winning the World Series. Anderson should be starting in CF. Uribe should have been let go on waivers, with Ramirez starting in his place. (Ozuna then would have value as a backup.) Crede, who I once backed strongly, should have been traded even if the return is not what we hoped for, because we can't start jerking around Fields the way we jerked around Anderson. I don't see why we made the Quentin trade if we were going to make the Swisher trade. One or the other. Not both. Now all we have is a logjam that will get worse when Owens heals because Ozzie will play Owens most of the time even if he's our WORST outfielder. AAAACK. And, listen, before anyone dumps on me for being upset about not starting Anderson, who has proven nothing in the majors (except stellar defensive play), all I'm saying is that he deserves the shot. At least one or two solid months where he's in the lineup 5-6 days out of 7. And you have to give it to him out of the chute, since he's had the best spring of any outfielder on our team. Then the message to the whole team is -- I'm going to play the guys who produce, not just the guys I personally like. Ozzie's failure to live by that philosophy just sickens me. I have to be eternally grateful for the guy helping bring us a World Series title. Not many managers could have done that with the 2005 squad. But, since then? I think his actions have hurt this team more than they have helped.
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The O's probably want more than we would want to pay for Brian Roberts, but if we are still a team that thinks it is going to try to be competitive this season, it would seem to me that he could make a lot of sense for our club if the O's are willing to part with him. Plus, we have one guy we'd like to unload -- Juan Uribe -- they might take off our hands as part of the deal because they need some insurance in the infield. Is Danny Richar really the answer at 2B? Is Juan Uribe? I didn't see enough of Richar last year from here in VA to know, but his stats don't suggest he's going to contribute anything this season. Certainly we've seen enough of Uribe to know he's also likely to post an OBP south of .300. Meanwhile, Roberts posted a .377 OBP, stole 50 bases, hit a lot of doubles and a few HRs, and is a good fielder. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4773 He's 30. If we added Roberts, we would no longer have to force Jerry Owens into the outfield ahead of superior players just to give Ozzie speed. We get a better lead off hitter than Owens probably will ever be. Thus, we end up upgrading two positions at once -- 2B and the OF spot Owens no longer is pushed into. Indeed, with Roberts, we might field a very solid offense that gets on base at a vastly improved clip. L Roberts 2B R Cabrera SS R Dye LF (I like Dye here, even if Thome will probably be here) L Thome DH R Konerko 1B B Swisher LF/CF R Quentin LF/CF L Pierzynski C R Crede/Fields 3B I could see guys being moved around in this lineup, but the point is that there would be no easy outs in it. Roberts is a huge upgrade over Richar in the short term, while Quentin sounds like he offers a lot more potential than Owens. (I'm basing this on what I've read, because I don't know much about Quentin.). I'm not convinced KW has found the right blend of playing for now and injecting new blood, but if we're going for that strategy, I think we should be players for Brian Roberts.
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Add me to the list of those who believed we dodged a bullet by losing on the Torii Hunter sweeps. He will help the Angels in the short term, and as someone wrote, he's more valuable to them because he (plus Garland) improves them to where they have a better chance of winning the pennant. But he's an outfielder with bad knees who is probably going to decline fairly quickly, perhaps in much the same way Garrett Anderson has. Had the Sox tied up a lot of money in Hunter, we would have had even less chance of revamping this aging team in the next 5 years.
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QUOTE(29andPoplar @ Nov 20, 2007 -> 09:16 PM) I wouldn't be too sure you're right about all this. You have no more clue than anyone else what could or couldn't have been done, nor a clue how the team will be constructed. After all, you are the guy who said, "What's sick is we are letting Buehrle go, while extending Vazquez ... SICK SAD SICK SAD. I have a 4 yr. old son I've tried to turn into a Sox fan. Now, I don't have a single argument for why he should root for the Sox. Frankly the Nationals are more worthy of fan support. Buehrle will be at 280+ wins at age 40. Again, the sick thing is almost 200 of those wins will be for another team." Maybe it's better to wait and see how it turns out. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCCKKKKKKK !! GREAT RESEARCH! Nice job pulling up one of my old comments. But what exactly are you saying? Seems like my position is pretty consistent. I wanted us to keep Buehrle (amazingly we did), but have always thought Vazquez is not much better than a .500 pitcher who melts down under pressure. And we traded the best prospect in our system to get him when we should have been replacing his role with one of the seeming thousands of pitching prospects we've drafted over the last 6-7 years. Trading youth for mid-30s veterans seemed like a good idea to KW because he wanted desperately to repeat. But we've all seen how quickly that concept turns to mush. Continuing down that path will only further cripple the Sox. Sure, we may get back to .500 because we've replaced a horrible offensive anchor in our lineup. But we aren't going to have another shot at a World Series by fielding the over-the-hill gang.
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It has been a long time since I have posted on this site because it is so depressing watching the Sox go into the crapper so quickly after we finally won a World Series. Add me to the list of fans who believe trading a young, skilled, veteran pitcher who won 18 games two years in a row to a team that will kill us with him, in return for a 33-year-old shortstop, is a horrible move. I don't care whether Cabrera is better than Juan Uribe. If we sign him past next year, we'll be looking at investing a lot of money in a player of declining skills. (Just like we've invested a lot of money in Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Juan Uribe, Jose Contreras, and AJ Pierzynski.) I remain convinced that this team started to fall apart when KW dealt El Duque, Vizcaino, and Chris Young to the Diamondbacks for Javier Vazquez. The Dbacks had to wait an extra year for Young because he got hurt. But this year he helped lead them to the NLCS with his 30+ HR power, speed at the top of the order, and great defense. Had we not made that deal, several dominoes would have fallen differently. We could have used Vizcaino in 2006 to help a bullpen that fell apart when Politte's arm fell off. We wouldn't have suffered through Vazquez's 6th inning meltdowns all year. Brandon McCarthy could have been in the rotation instead of the pen, or at least split starting duties with El Duque. Or we could have traded El Duque to the Mets and gotten more. Plus, we wouldn't have spent $10 million/year on JV -- money that would have been better used elsewhere. Now, the great fix is to trade young starting pitching for a mid-30s player. On top of that, our only other plan seems to be to try to sign another mid-30s guy to play the position Chris Young could be playing at less cost for 6 years than we will pay his replacement EACH year. We've had all these prospect pitchers -- none of which have panned out, mind you -- but the one time we get a legit 5-tool position player we trade him for a mediocre pitcher (who had one good year this year, but otherwise should easily be replacable by one of the pitchers we drafted). This is not a winning plan. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK! It's hard to be a Sox fan again. (Still, I can never be too hard on Ozzie and KW, because they brought us a World Title for once in my life.)
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To answer the title of the thread -- ALL OF THE ABOVE. But the best way to improve this team might be to dump Darren Erstad so Ozzie is not tempted to play him.
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Before the Sox can think about anything, they have to get above .500. Even if they are torrid, that's going to take at least 11 more games (going 9-2). With 40 left, they would then have to play 28-12 ball and hope the Tigers and Indians both play no better than .500. I think we'll end up winning about 85 games (33-18), but it won't be close to enough. Though it would keep the Sox brass from rebuilding.
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Maybe we ought to reacquire El Duque in the offseason? Everyone says we have to dump Jose. But he's undumpable unless he can find his pitching form again. Yet, if he finds his pitching form, then he could be a bargain at $10 million/year. And he would likely help us more in that case than any player(s) we might get in return, since no other team is going to trust him enough to give us anything back. They only have to look at what happened to Freddie Garcia this year to discount our once-good starters as damaged goods. I suppose the answer if Jose reemerges as quickly as he disintegrated is to keep him and trade Garland, then hope we can develop a replacement for Jose when his contract runs out. But, is there ANY chance Jose can find his form again? Anyone rate that higher than 10%? Has there been any player whose performance has coincided so closely with the Sox' prospects over the last few years? He turns into a horse the second half of 2005 and tops the rotation that leads us to World Series victory. He starts where he left off the first half of 2006, keeping the Sox on pace with the Tigers. Then he goes in the crapper the second half of 2006, sinking any chance of repeating. He begins 2007 just as bad, keeping us well under .500 and ballooning our staff ERA. He's resurrected himself before. I wonder if he can't do it again.
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My off-season plan(and it stays within budget)
VAfan replied to Lemon_44's topic in Sox Baseball Headquarters
Any trade of Jon Garland would have to bring back a starting pitcher who at least has a chance of pitching as well as Garland. There is no way a rotation of Buehrle, Vazquez, Danks, Floyd, fill-in-the-blank can compete for a playoff spot. I'm for trying to re-sign Garland. If he wants $15 million/year for more than 3 years, well then he'll have to go, but we aren't there yet. The mystery player here is Jose. Unless he rediscovers his form he's untradeable. But what if he rediscovers his form? Then he could be a bargain at $10 million/year. -
QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Aug 6, 2007 -> 03:25 PM) If the Sox can't work out a deal right now, it will be revisited in the offseason, that's for sure. Also, if Tejada came here, I'd bat him second. His power may be fading a little bit, but you can still count on him for a .350 OBP. Exactly what I was thinking. And I don't think it would take all that much to get him. Would they take Uribe and a pitcher? What if Jose found a bit of a groove again? If you can dump Uribe and Jose, then Tejada plus Floyd would actually cost the Sox about the same. But we'd take one huge out out of the lineup without giving up any power. Owen CF Tejada SS Thome DH Konerko 1B Dye RF (signed for a couple more years) Pierzynski C Crede 3B (back until he's traded) Fields LF Richar 2B
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It's hard for me to believe all the Joe Crede hate on this board. Fellas, does anyone remember 2005? We may not have hoisted the trophy without Joe Crede. He was the overall MVP of the postseason. Heck, without his game winning homer late in the year against Cleveland, we might have melted all the way down and missed the dance. Plus, though he's not always put up stellar offensive numbers, he's never failed in the field. I understand Crede doesn't have a long-term future with the Sox given his back history and agent. But I'm never going to think anything but good thoughts about Joe Crede. He's one of the few guys we have developed internally in the last 10 years. Aaron Rowand was another, and as soon as we shipped him out we realized we lost something greater than Rowand's offensive numbers as a team. THANKS, JOE CREDE.
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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Aug 3, 2007 -> 10:16 PM) At this stage, I'd say the chances of him staying are probably 60:40 right now, after what happened at the deadline. He wants a 3 year deal, the Sox are only going to offer a 1 maybe 2 tops. So I think a compromise e.g a 2 year deal with a team option based on incentives such as AB's etc. could be reached. If Dye does leave however, do we replace him in house with Ryan Sweeney, or go for another stopgap in a Geoff Jenkins type of hitter, if the Sox brass feel that Sweeney still isn't ready yet (which I don't think he is either, and I don't know if he'll ever be a regular major league outfielder actually)? Thanks for bringing this back to a Dye thread, instead of a Konerko/Thome thread. We can't go with Sweeney in RF, Owens in LF, and some mystery person in CF because we're looking at 10 HRs total from the corner outfielders. If we replace Iguchi with Richar and Uribe with someone else, there's another 30-40 HRs lost. The Sox cannot win at the Cell unless they hit 200 long balls or close to it. The main reason I see Dye coming back is a) he wants to, and will strike a deal to stay, and B) KW knows we need his offense. He's going to be our best hitter in the second half because he'll come on while Thome will fade.
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There have been tons of threads about Jermaine, mostly dissing him for his poor performance to start the season. But after not pulling the trigger on a trade, I would bet that KW comes to terms with him on an extension. Yesterday's 2 HR, 2 2B, performance, shows that he can still hit. And he's still willing to give the Sox a home-team discount, which no free agent -- not even Aaron Rowand -- would be willing to do. Since Dye will likely be cheaper than Rowand, and since we have no outfielder in our system with any potential to hit the ball over the fence, it is going to be very hard to dump Dye and hope our team could be better next season. Even the 2005 Sox hit the ball over the fence. It is an essential way to winning at the Cell. So, if you still hate Jermaine, get over it. On a 3-year extension (or perhaps 2 with some kind of mutual or performance option to kick in a 3rd year), we may not get 3 great years out of him, but I expect we'll get something like we've gotten out of him on his last contract -- 1 fabulous year, 1 very solid year, and 1 mixed year. And that's likely better than just about any alternative we have. (BTW -- on a 3-year deal, I would not necessarily expect Dye to play RF the entire time. But if he hits like he has resumed hitting, his defense isn't going to be acceptable.)
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The trading season is not over, but it appears that my point -- that the Sox will end up waiting until the offseason to do most of their trading -- has borne out. We dumped Iguchi to open a slot for Richar, but got next to nothing in return. We dumped Mackowiak for not much more. No one offered us enough to rent Jermaine Dye. No one was insane enough to give us anything for Contreras, who still should be put on the DL for a month. Kenny didn't deal any of the starters that have value -- Garland or Vazquez. A lot of us don't like the uncertainty because the team will be remade in the offseason rather than now. But it makes the most sense for the Sox to go this route.
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Greg the Bull Luzinski: I tend to agree with your theory, and your opponent has no evidence to support calling it garbage because Javy has never pitched well on a playoff-bound team. There was one post I put up last year that documented 9 games (before the season was over) where Javy melted down in the 6th inning (or the 3rd time through the lineup). In fact, the last game he won on the season was against the Yankees in August I think. It was the ONLY time Ozzie pulled him after 5 innings. So, right now, Javy is looking great. But even within this string he had a relapse in the 6th inning of the recent game against Baltimore when he turned a 5-1 lead into a 5-4 game by giving up two HRs. He didn't finish the 6th. We lost 7-6 when Jenks wild-pitched the tying run home with two outs in the 9th and Haeger lost in extra frames. Overall, I would rate Javy as an excellent #4 starter, an okay/decent #3 starter, a shaky/bad #2 guy, and a disaster at #1. Which is another way of saying -- don't dump Jon Garland and think Javy's going to replace him anytime soon.
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I don't think anyone suggested what should be the obvious choice for Jose right now -- put him on the disabled list. Maybe he says he's not hurt, but his lost velocity says otherwise. They could shut him down for the rest of the year, or try to bring him back in September to see if he can win a few games and show some value in the trade market. Jose righting himself during that 2005 season and turning into a #1 horse set up that team to win the World Series. We weren't winning with Mark Buehrle as the #1 guy. And he kept it up the first half of last year. But then it all went in the crapper. You have to believe something physical happened to him last year to turn him into what he is now. Because he hasn't just been bad this year, he was bad all of the second half of last year. So, I say, fix his body and trade him, or bring him back. But you can't just eat his contract, and he's not an answer for the bullpen.
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Expect Mets to seriously pursue Iguchi
VAfan replied to Gene Honda Civic's topic in Sox Baseball Headquarters
33 posts, but nothing actually germane to the subject. Is there any hope that the Mets would give us something of potential value for Iguchi, since he'll bring no return once the season is over? Any possibility of a package deal involving any combination of Iguchi plus Dye and/or Contreras? Has anyone seen a published rumor to this effect, one way or another? -
QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Jul 20, 2007 -> 04:11 PM) You have misinterpreted almost everything I've said. Crede - yes; if you offer him a contract, he's getting $4 mill guaranteed. You then have to find a place for him to play so he can build up some trade value, and he then has to perform up to his abilities, which were never outstanding to begin with, all the while stunting the development of Josh Fields at 3B; if you are counting on him to be the LFer, then that's fine. I don't think the Sox are, otherwise he would have played a lot more left field in the past year or so than he has. And by giving that $4 mill to Joe, all you are doing is hoping and praying he can regain his trade value so you can get a piece for him from one of 14 teams with a worse 3Bman. That, sir, is what they call a terrible investment; you have a limited ceiling and a floor that can hit rock bottom. Crede is almost assuredly gone for nothing, and I'd be very surprised if you ever see him in a White Sox uniform again. Dye - no; I said I want to trade him because I really do not think the Sox will offer him arbitration if they do not want him back next year. If they don't offer him arbitration, they get nothing. I don't care if the Sox trade Dye or keep him and tender him a contract and then get 2 compensatory picks; I just understand that there's risks to both sides of the deal. Follow? Contreras - no; I am trading him for the first offer that brings me talent. Any talent is better than nothing I imagine. Garland - yes, by and large; you'll get an oustanding package for one of the games best 40 pitchers with all things considered. Iguchi I have said numerous times in this thread (if you would read) that if you do not trade him, you will get nothing because you cannot offer him arbitration due to some wacky international free agent rules; thus, trade him for the first thing that wears a baseball uniform, is under the age of 26, and can throw the ball 93 MPH (even if it's Eduardo Sierra deux). Uribe you probably won't get anything for. He's not a guy a team is going to trade for thinking he will start, and even aside from that he has no value whatsoever. That being said, I think the options for shortstop next year are Uribe, Gonzalez, and Eckstein; pick your poison. So to answer your question, no it wasn't even close to right. I see the Sox getting talent for 4 of those players mentioned, the most for Garland, Crede gone because there's almost no chance he'll be the player he was before, and you pick up Uribe's option because all other options suck just as hard and you can hope that Juan actually hits .240 with a .750 OPS so you can actually get something in value for him via trade. Right now, I'd say the Sox need to find a young outfielder, shortstop, and catcher for the offense, and then probably 2-3 more good bullpen arms along with another starter. You can likely get about 3 of those for Garland if you make the right deal (probably OF, SS/C, and pen arm for him) and then the rest are acquired by trading the others. It's not that hard to understand. Seems to me I interpreted everything pretty accurately. Crede -- non-tender him and let him go. Isn't that what you just repeated? So, right off the bat, I was correct, yet you claim I misinterpreted??? Dye -- you did want him non-tendered if he can't be traded now, didn't you? And if he's non-tendered, then we lose our draft picks. So, again, how did I misinterpret? Seems that you've changed your tune above when you suggest that you want the draft picks after all. Contreras -- who do you think is going to give us "talent" for Jose right now??? Wake me up when the trade happens. He's untradeable at the moment, I would bet, unless we not only get nothing back but have to eat part of the next two years of his contract. Garland -- as I wrote in another post, if we trade him, we may need pitching back, ala Garcia for Floyd/Gio and McCarthy for Danks/Masset. Since our minors haven't produced a single worthy pitcher that we drafted since Mark Buehrle, forgive me if I'm doubtful about the prospects who remain. But to get pitching back, the trade has to be an offseason one. Iguchi -- we agree we get nothing by waiting. My point is no one gives anything of value in trade for a 2B. The Mets need a 2B, but I don't even see them lining up to give us anything. I rate the prospect of getting a body for Iguchi only slightly higher than our chances of getting TALENT for Contreras at the moment. I'm not holding my breath. Uribe -- you want to pick up his $5 million option, then trade him? And who, exactly, wants a .270 OBP SS at $5 million? **************** You are living in fantasy land if you think the Sox are going to get ANYTHING worth having by putting Dye, Iguchi, and Contreras on the market right now. For better or worse, I believe we are stuck with them until the season is over. Maybe I should have re-titled my post because it seems to have been misinterpreted. I'm not really in favor of the Sox "standing pat" and going into next season with this team. My point all along has been that we aren't going to get ANY value right now on the players we all agree need replacing. It sucks, but we're just going to have to wait until the offseason if we want any value at all out of: Jermaine Dye -- former WS MVP Joe Crede -- 2005 postseason MVP Jose Contreras -- former #1 horse on WS title team As for Iguchi and Uribe, if we could get value, I'd trade them in a heartbeat. I just don't see that happening (though I did note Jose Valentin breaking his leg, so maybe there's some hope).
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Garland off the market, Vazquez available
VAfan replied to hitlesswonder's topic in Sox Baseball Headquarters
QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jul 23, 2007 -> 01:08 PM) That's a s*** load of money to be paying for the top 3 in the rotation (probably $40M+). The question is, without trading anyone of value from the rotation where is this "decent offense" going to come from? Yes, it may be a lot to pay the top end of the rotation, but I would ask, without solid starting pitching, how the hell do you expect the Sox to compete with Detroit, Cleveland, or Minnesota? I have ZERO confidence at the moment that any pitcher in our minor league system is going to amount to an above-average major league starter. They might, but I have to see it to believe it. We don't even seem to have anyone who can be trusted to pitch in the worst bullpen in baseball. -
Add my name to the list of those who think this is an absurd trade from the Sox' standpoint. Garland is only 27, but has been a full-time starter for 6 years, and is coming off back-to-back 18-win seasons. Now he's not going to get there this year, in part due to our pathetic offense and even worse bullpen. He's also averaged more than 200 innings/year and does not get hurt. At the very least the Sox should try to re-sign him before they trade him. Everyone thought he wouldn't extend his contract last time, so any argument that he wants the sky or wants to leave would have to be discounted this time too. If he won't sign (say Buerhle's extension), then he will have to be traded. But there are several reasons to wait until the offseason to make such a trade: 1. We may need pitching back in any Garland trade given the fact that the only guy we have on our pitching staff of any consequence that we drafted is Mark Buehrle. That's it. If all these guys we drafted in recent years were even close to being ready -- Gio, Broadway, etc., etc., etc. -- you would think at least one of them could help us in our pathetic bullpen. But none of them can. Forgive me if I'm not holding my breath for these prospects to step in and take over for Jon Garland. 2. Mid-season, no one is going to give us pitching for Garland. But they might in the offseason. We pulled off two such trades last year alone -- Freddie for Floyd/Gio, and McCarthy for Danks/Masset. 3. Mid-season trades are limited to contending teams. Offseason trades open up our options. In addition, if we do end up having to trade Garland, then by all means we HAVE to get players that are YOUNGER and CHEAPER, but will contribute significantly to a winning team. Trading for a 31-year-old SS who failed in the AL and whose contract is comparable to Garland's would be the height of insanity.
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QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Jul 13, 2007 -> 03:01 PM) <!--quoteo(post=1471624:date=Jul 13, 2007 -> 10:48 AM:name=VAfan)-->QUOTE(VAfan @ Jul 13, 2007 -> 10:48 AM) <!--quotec-->Crede went from playoff MVP, and one of the best 3Bs in baseball, to dog scrap in your eyes?????? I think you completely destroy your credibility with that claim. I'm not sure I'd sign Crede long term any more now that his back has actually sidelined him for half a season, and I might not accede to Boras's demands, but I wouldn't hesitate to tender the guy unless a doctor told me his career is over. He'd be one of the best bargains on the team. His superior fielding alone is probably worth a few games a year. (It certainly made the difference in the clinching game of the World Series.) Plus, since we don't have a left fielder, I have no problem moving Fields there for a year or until Crede is traded. Quite the contrary, you're destroying YOUR credibility if you've ever believed Crede to be anything near one of the best 3Bman in the league. He had an amazing run of 12 games in the playoffs, and he has always been a pretty clutch player, but clutch doesn't change a career .259 average, .751 OPS, 92 OPS+, and a season high OPS of .829. If you are comparing Crede to the best 3Bman in the game, you are comparing him to Chipper, Wright, ARod, Aramis, Cabrera, and Rolen; how can you do that when he's not better than Lowell, Zimmerman, Atkins, Beltre, Glaus, Braun, or Mora? Joe Crede never has and never will be one of the best 3Bman in the game. To think so is showing nothing but your ability to be a homer and let your emotions cloud the actual value and talent level of a player. I love Joe Crede too for what he did in 2005, but it doesn't the fact that he's a mediocre 3Bman. Dye at his worst? You are talking 1997, 1998, 2003, and 2007 here, right? That's about a .625ish OPS in 1000 PAs. So, to answer your question, every outfielder in the White Sox organization will put up better numbers than that, all things considered of course, because they will very likely atleast match the .625 and they will be making a little more than $6.5 mill less than Dye will be. It's entirely possible that the White Sox have plans for the 2008 outfield right now and that they do not include Jermaine Dye; it's also possible beyond even that they do not want to include Jermaine Dye into next year's plans. By offering Dye arbitration, the Sox are opening the door to the possibility that he may accept arbitration, thus leaving the Sox with a log jam. I don't think it's likely, I'm merely running through all the possibilities. However, history has shown that if the White Sox do not want a certain player back, they will not offer them arbitration. There was virtually no excuse to let Riske go for free; he was a class A free agent, and he was coming off of a year where he made something like $2.3 mill. The Sox declined to offer it because KW had "big plans" for the pen (whoops). If they weren't willing to spend $2.3 mill on a solid innings eating reliever, why would they spend $7 mill on an outfielder who's an injury risk, is going to be 34, and is not part of the rebuilding plans? You absolutely can deal Contreras just to get rid of him. Because he pitched well in the playoffs 2 years ago you can't? That's absolutely ludicrous. You are talking about trading players and then getting attached to them, letting your emotions dictate what you want to see. Fact of the matter is the first offer that brings the Sox any type of talent that could help the White Sox long term for Contreras (other than like a bullpen arm; I'm talking a Broadway or Anderson type prospect) should net him and he should leave. That's an absolute albatross of a contract, he's older than piss, and he's not going to get better. He's a wonderful human being and I'll forever be thankful for 2005, but in 2007, who really cares? You'll never be able to relive 2005 over again because it has happened and is gone. Then how are you going to allocate the rest of the payroll? Assuming Garland signs the exact same extension Buehrle does, word for word, salary for salary, the Sox have $65.5 million tied up between 6 players. That leaves, at the very most, $35 million for the other 19 spots on the roster, and it's very possible that's around $25 million as well. That leaves you about 2 medium sized signings, one for a reliever, and one for Aaron Rowand. Do you think a rotation of Buehrle-Garland-Vazquez-Danks-Floyd with essentially the same exact bullpen and an offense that replaces Jermaine Dye's bat with Aaron Rowand's can compete? Quite frankly, if it's not this year, why would next year be any different? Garland is the one starter who KW will trade that will bring back a load of talent in return. It's almost a formality at this point, because I don't think KW has any intentions of resigning him, and I would imagine Garland's intentions lead him towards getting as close to a 9 figure contract as possible. That's why it's called rebuilding, dude. And only Jesus Christ has been able to turn water into wine. The Sox won't compete for a while because they simply do not have the talent within the organization to do so. So, let me see if I get this straight. Crede -- you want to non-tender him and let him go for nothing. Dye -- you want to non-tender him and let him go for nothing. Contreras -- you want to deal him just to get rid of him, i.e., get nothing in return. Garland -- trade him for something. I presume, as well, that Iguchi walks for nothing, and Uribe's $5 million option is not exercised. Is that about right? How is that "rebuilding, dude"?? Chuck half the team for nothing and hope a Jon Garland trade solves all that ails the Sox?
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QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Jul 12, 2007 -> 05:01 PM) I bet Contreras brings back more than that. It won't be much more, but it's addition by subtraction in my mind. That's $10 mill off the books, and $10 mill off for the next two years as well. If KW can convince Minaya that he just needs some pitching adjustments made, he can sell him at a reasonable price. You're not getting Milledge or Gomez, but they are interested in him and it's very plausible that something could be worked out where the Sox get some actual talent in return. I think Dye's a moot point because I don't think there's any way the Sox will offer him arbitration. That's $7 mill hanging in the balance, and you can think he will bounce back next year all you want to, but the possibility also remains he won't. If he doesn't, he has LESS value next year, and you are lucky to get a 35 year old minor league vet for him. I think he'll be better than this next year too, but it's almost impossible for him not to be. And if the organization is moving towards the future, and the future at 3B is Josh Fields, and he puts up respectable numbers in the majors, why would waste $4 million on Joe Crede who is high risk/medium reward (he's a mediocre 3Bman with a very good glove; if I may borrow Kalapse's comparison, Ed Sprague). There's very little point in bringing back Crede unless he can magically prove that he can play an adequate 2B; if that happens, we can bring Dye back and stick him at SS too. Crede went from playoff MVP, and one of the best 3Bs in baseball, to dog scrap in your eyes?????? I think you completely destroy your credibility with that claim. I'm not sure I'd sign Crede long term any more now that his back has actually sidelined him for half a season, and I might not accede to Boras's demands, but I wouldn't hesitate to tender the guy unless a doctor told me his career is over. He'd be one of the best bargains on the team. His superior fielding alone is probably worth a few games a year. (It certainly made the difference in the clinching game of the World Series.) Plus, since we don't have a left fielder, I have no problem moving Fields there for a year or until Crede is traded. But, in any event, all of this relates to offseason moves. The point of my post is that the offseason may be the better time to reconstitute the Sox' roster than at the trade deadline. Dye. I think we saw last night that if the guy can stay healthy, he's going to hit. I expect him to have a very strong second half. You may not remember, but Dye stunk it up in April-May in 2005 too, but came on to post a respectable year and became even stronger after Ozzie finally moved him to the 3 hole for the post-season. As for him being an obstacle, tell me exactly, who would he be blocking even if somehow accepted arbitration??? Can you name me even a single outfielder we have that is better than Dye at his worst? If Dye hits for the next 2 weeks like he started to last night, I'd say he's the most likely one that will be moved because he really could help someone win the World Series if he hits like he did the second half of 2005 or 2006. Frankly, I'll be sorry to see him go. He's a total team player, and really softened the offensive losses of Lee and Ordonez. Contreras. On his own, I don't think he's bringing back anything worth having. And since our farm system is bereft of major league prospects who can play the field, we can't afford to surrender the guy who was the pitching MVP of our World Series run just to unload his contract. If the Mets want Contreras and Dye, I could support a deal, but only if we get back something like Millege and someone else of value. Garland. Frankly, I want to keep him if he'll sign an extension. One of the reasons I don't want us to unload guys for 30 cents on the dollar is because it doesn't strengthen the team to unload someone who still has long-term value if they'll sign a long-term contract. No matter how you cut it, Garland is not bringing back what he's worth in trade. I'd deal him only if he refuses to re-up in the offseason. A Buehrle/Danks/Vazquez rotation isn't enough to compete with the Tigers, Indians, or Twins. Remember, the Twins get Soriano back next season. The Tigers have Verlander and Miller. Vazquez is way too unreliable and Danks is only potentially good. But a rotation with Garland/Buehrle at the head gives us a starting pitching lineup capable of competing in our division. Frankly, since we have NO BULLPEN, and big gaps in the outfield, at SS, and soon at 2B and C, we have to keep solid starting pitching to have any chance. You can't rob Peter to pay Paul. The Sox have to maximize the return on what they have or we're going to be perpetually looking up at 2-3 teams in the AL Central.
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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 12, 2007 -> 03:30 PM) Dude, you quoted a post with a whole list of names, then said that no one offered any names. If you are talking about people NOT with the big club yet, or who just joined this year, then its a silly argument - because there is no telling. Despite what some may say, NO one can tell you of player X at AA ball is going to be an all star. Most here would agree that the organization is definitely lacking in position player prospects. But the all star game isn't really a good measure to use. First, I asked about youth. That disqualifies all of the names that were quoted, except Crede. And how many years with the Sox does Crede have left? One? If that? Second, yes, I'm asking if anyone thinks we have a single POTENTIAL all-star position player in the minors, since we don't have any young ones on the club (other than possibly Fields, who I listed myself). I'll name you one we HAD, but traded -- Chris Young. Do we have any others? It's not that hard of a question if you know the players in our system. I'm asking because I don't.