VAfan

I think if you read the story carefully, all it says is that Washington is very interested in Brandon McCarthy. That just means that's who they want, not who they'll get. After thinking about this a bit longer, I'll go out on a limb and say there's NO WAY that Brandon McCarthy is being offered by KW for Soriano.

I live outside DC, but I don't know for sure whether Washington is refusing to allow teams a window to re-sign Soriano before concluding a deal. I think I read where there were refusing that. Anyone know? If we could afford him, Soriano would certainly be a huge offensive upgrade over Pods in LF, and wouldn't provide that much less in the defensive department. And on a longer term deal, it's theoretically possible he could move back to 2B when Iguchi goes. But as a rental? When we really need starting pitching? Frankly, I'd rather move Vazquez and just put McCarthy into the rotation.

QUOTE(rudylaw @ Jul 24, 2006 -> 03:42 PM) 3 things. 1. Do we have the money to sign Soriano to a long term deal? 2. Would Ozzie actually consider putting Pods in center over BA? 3. If Pods does stay and play center, would Pods, BA and Mack all platoon and play center? Anderson is better than Pods right now. IF Soriano comes here, Pods has to go.

Here are the top-10 LFs by OPS in baseball right now. RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB BA OBP SLG OPS 1 Manny Ramirez Bos 332 60 103 19 1 26 73 0 1 72 .310 .429 .608 1.038 2 Alfonso Soriano Was 399 73 115 25 2 31 62 25 7 43 .288 .361 .594 .955 3 Jason Bay Pit 361 62 103 20 2 22 73 6 2 67 .285 .400 .535 .935 4 Matt Holliday Col 370 65 120 30 3 17 60 4 3 21 .324 .372 .559 .931 5 Adam Dunn Cin 353 67 87 16 0 30 66 3 0 73 .246 .377 .547 .923 6 Pat Burrell Phi 290 45 75 13 0 20 64 0 0 57 .259 .380 .510 .890 7 Carlos Lee Mil 377 58 107 17 0 27 79 12 2 37 .284 .345 .544 .889 8 Nick Swisher Oak 341 68 87 14 2 21 55 1 2 62 .255 .377 .493 .870 9 Carl Crawford TB 369 59 114 14 10 14 50 32 8 25 .309 .354 .515 .868 10 Raul Ibanez Sea 379 59 104 21 5 21 78 2 3 39 .274 .339 .522 .861 Here's Pods 15 Scott Podsednik CWS 341 66 93 21 6 3 37 29 12 40 .273 .350 .396 .746 The Sabremetric ranking is about the same: 1 Manny Ramirez Bos 82.9 9.13 .298 .512 89 109 0.82 .176 0.89 72 81 2 Alfonso Soriano Was 86.2 7.86 .306 .459 97 162 0.60 .096 0.49 43 88 3 Jason Bay Pit 76.9 7.50 .249 .446 107 123 0.87 .152 0.73 67 92 4 Adam Dunn Cin 74.1 7.28 .300 .516 77 115 0.67 .169 0.64 73 114 5 Matt Holliday Col 69.5 6.97 .235 .295 144 93 1.55 .052 0.32 21 66 6 Carl Crawford TB 69.6 6.84 .206 .339 165 95 1.74 .062 0.47 25 53 7 Pat Burrell Phi 55.8 6.67 .252 .448 65 101 0.64 .163 0.68 57 84 8 Nick Swisher Oak 64.6 6.44 .238 .416 93 115 0.81 .148 0.68 62 91 9 Carlos Lee Mil 69.2 6.40 .260 .385 141 146 0.97 .087 0.95 37 39 10 Luis Gonzalez Ari 59.0 6.05 .173 .303 134 129 1.04 .114 1.53 46 30 RK PLAYER TEAM RC RC27 ISOP SECA GB FB G/F BB/PA BB/K BB SO 11 Raul Ibanez Sea 64.6 5.93 .248 .348 136 128 1.06 .092 0.59 39 66 12 Brad Wilkerson Tex 43.8 5.24 .226 .360 64 90 0.71 .113 0.37 37 100 13 Josh Willingham Fla 42.6 5.04 .185 .293 98 98 1.00 .088 0.46 29 63 14 Emil Brown KC 45.8 4.99 .141 .245 123 104 1.18 .089 0.62 32 52 15 Scott Podsednik CWS 50.4 4.96 .123 .290 126 88 1.43 .102 0.65 40 62 Soriano is worth about 36 runs more than Pods on the year. But if our pitching doesn't come through, it won't matter how good our offense is.

Bizarre trade ideas, actually. Give up on McCarthy for a two month rental of Soriano? Further weaken your minor league pitching depth for a guy who was never that great when healthy. (A Royals pitcher? -- isn't that an oxymoron?) Can't see how you can flip Soriano, because only the Tigers, Yanks, Angels, and Twins seem interested, and they aren't trading with us. I don't think Kurjian just blows smoke. He's a reporter, not a rumor creator.

QUOTE(South Side Fireworks Man @ Jul 23, 2006 -> 11:46 PM) Let's hope Vazquez can give a quality performance for a change tomorrow. And let's hope Ozzie gets his head out of his ass unlike the last game Vazquez pitched. Last night, Liriano was yanked after 5 innings in a 3-1 Twins victory. Had Vazquez been yanked after 5 innings his last outing, we could have easily beaten the Tigers 2-0 or 2-1. Ozzie has not adapted his managerial style to the team he is managing at the moment. He's still managing the team he wants to have, in which a well-paid starter like Vazquez can actually get to 100 pitches without blowing up, and can get through a lineup 3 times. We need these wins, Ozzie. Manage accordingly.

There is no harm in this move, since Widger was worse than pathetic. I don't hold out much hope that Alomar is a great game caller or a competent hitter, but he can't be worse than Widger in either of these stats, or even in flailing at the running game. On the other hand, there is some possible upside, even if it is a long shot. Our starters need to pitch to guys they can trust, and have only one way to go -- up. If Alomar can help at all in that regard, he'll be a welcome addition.

It doesn't matter at this point in the season whether we catch the Tigers. The team that is going to make or break our playoff chances is the Minnesota Twins. BEAT MINNESOTA!!!

So, our first move is bringing back Sandy Alomar, Jr. Not an earth-shattering move, but one that is an upgrade over Chris "Worthless" Widger. As usual, Kenny probably gave up "too much" -- a AA reliever who was 5-0, with a 1.69 ERA and a fifth-round draft pick. But this is certainly Kenny's style. Keep trading to get back players you've once had. Has Alomar Jr. passed Carl Everett's record yet? I think this is a good move. If the pitching starts looking a lot better in the games Alomar plays, it could be a great move. And let's face it, our starters are just going to have to pitch better for us to win. I don't think there's any way around it. If our starters can collectively post an ERA below 4.00 from here to the end, we've got a chance -- it's not a certainty with the way the Twins are playing -- but a chance. If the ERA doesn't come around, then I don't care how well we hit, I'm not confident any more that we'll make the postseason. The last two starts have looked pretty good, so let's build on it. Beating the Twins, frankly, is more important at this point than beating the Tigers.

So far, the team is still digging a hole for itself. We now no longer boast the second best record in baseball. Last year I never panicked or got the feeling that we wouldn't make the playoffs. Once in, I liked our chances against our opponents, primarily because we had the best pitching in baseball -- best starters + awesome bullpen. This year, a month ago I wrote to watch out for Minnesota. And with Minny now only 3 back, having gained 6 games on us in the past 10, and us in a 2-8 rut against our main competitors, I think we have a below-50% chance of even making the postseason. I would not be surprised to see us end the month of July in 3rd place in the AL Central. And if Minnesota gets past us, I'm not sure we're in a position to catch them. Pitching is the name of the game in baseball. And we don't have it right now. We have a lot of name pitchers who helped win us a WS just last year. But 3 of them are performing well below league average at this point -- Buehrle, Garcia, and Vazquez -- with no signs of pulling themselves out of it. Without pitching, this team has also lost its identity. Last year, our identity was clear. It was established in April and kept with us through October. Great starting pitching, great bullpen, score just enough runs to win. Magnificent record in 1-run games. Score early and hold em. As a result, we were a great road team. The only thing we added to that was that our hitters in October stopped swinging at pitches out of the zone. That made us unbeatable. Teams can have other identities than the one we had last year and still win. But the bottom line is you still have to have enough pitching to win. And we don't seem to have it. I hope I'm wrong. We could still turn on a switch and start playing like we are capable of. But we're not showing any signs of doing so, while our competitors are seizing their moment.

As I just posted on Pale Hose Talk, we'll see whether this team can handle some adversity. We handled the initial adversity at the start of the season, when we went on a tear after a brief stumble out of the gate. But recently, our main competitors in the AL have all been gaining on us to the point where our position is rather perilous. We've just gone 2-7 against 3 of our chief rivals, with the Twins coming up soon. Those are go-home results. We are 5-1/2 behind the Tigers, who outpitched and outhustled and outmanaged us in 2 of 3 games. Boston is likely to end the day with the same record we have. The Yanks could end the day 1-1/2 games behind us. The Twins are 4 games back, having won 7 in a row. If you add us, 2 of those 5 teams are going to be sitting at home in October. They may be the best 5 teams in baseball, but 2 of them aren't going to make the postseason dance. Last year at this time, we had the luxury of having the best pitching in the league and a huge lead. Standing pat was fine, especially since none of our rivals helped themselves. This year, we are losing ground to each of our rivals at a pace that could leave us in 5th place of these 5 teams by the end of the month. I don't think that this qualifies as a PANIC attack. But it does suggest that our team could use some kind of jolt to shake it from its lethargy. I still wouldn't be willing to make any bad moves, but I would probably be willing if I were KW to pay a little extra to help this team win now.

A couple of months ago, a poster asked which team would blink first, the White Sox or the Tigers. I think we have the definitive answer now -- we blinked first. A 5-1/2 game deficit, when we are much closer to missing the playoffs than we are to winning the AL Central, qualifies as us having blinked first. Boston, if they win today (ahead 6-4 as I write this), will tie us for second best record, while the Yanks could finish the day 1-1/2 games and the Twins 4 games (on a new 7-game win streak) away from making us October spectators. We also have the toughest remaining record of any AL contender, and the worst current pitching of any AL contender. Last year, I didn't freak out when Cleveland closed on us. And I'm not exactly freaking out now. I'm just no longer confident of the outcome for the 2006 White Sox. It seems to me we could get it together and make a run good enough to capture the AL Central title or win the Wild Card. It also seems to me we could even play decent baseball and finish with the 5th best record in the AL, behind Detroit, Boston, NY, and Minnesota (in which case one of them would also be staying home). We're on a 15-game brutal stretch against Boston, NY, Detroit, Texas, and Minny, and so far, we're 2-7 against our main competition. Those are go-home results. This team needs to find its identity, quickly.

To put it another way, it is one thing to leave Jose Contreras or Mark Buehrle in a game a little longer because they may be better at getting out of trouble than any long guy you have in the pen, but it is completely another thing to leave a guy like Javy Vazquez in the game when he runs into trouble when his track record is that he always goes from trouble to disaster. Manage the games to win, Ozzie. Especially the 2-game swing games like last night. Practically everyone here wants Ozzie to put McCarthy into the rotation. But Ozzie doesn't seem to trust the guy to throw 2 scoreless innings in the 6th and the 7th. It is quite maddening that McCarthy has so few appearances and innings when we have starters getting shelled regularly and an offense that can come back if we can stay within even a few runs. Plus, it is easier to fix Ozzie's management of the games than it will be for Freddie Garcia to get his velocity back or Javier Vazquez to toughen up when facing adversity in the mid-to-late innings of games. 2-3 games, at most, is likely to separate us from making the playoffs or sitting at home in October (unless we see a major turnaround from our starters). Those games will be won or lost based on Ozzie's decision making.

I still think Ozzie has to take the blame for yesterday's loss. A few weeks back, they were doing an Atlanta game on Sunday Night Baseball, and the announcers interviewed Bobby Cox, one of Ozzie's mentors, on what he was going to do to reverse Atlanta's slide and get them back in the race. His response was telling -- he said his only focus was on winning tonight's game. Well, Ozzie's focus needs to change. He should start thinking about winning tonight's game. He's the one who can observe and MANAGE Javier Vazquez. He's the one who should know that Javy gets lit up the 3rd time through the lineup, or when he's pitching from the stretch, or when he gets above 80 pitches -- whatever. The point is that in a winnable ballgame that means 2 games in the standings, he's got to make the adjustment to give the team the best chance to win the game. It does a great disservice to the entire team to leave one of his starting pitchers out there to fail when the game was eminently winnable 2-0 or 2-1. Did the Tigers do anything against our bullpen? No. And odds are they wouldn't have had the bullpen been utilized. Personally, since Javy had a shutout through 5, I would have let him start the 6th inning. But I would have warmed someone up to start the inning. I would have yanked Javy as soon as he allowed the tying runs to reach base. No one is lining up to trade for Javy Lopez. But it is not as if he can't be of use to us. He pitched 5 shutout innings last night against the Tigers. He had a 2-run lead. Had Ozzie just used the bullpen properly, we likely would have won the game! What's really aggravating is that, whereas last year until McCarthy came up we had NO LONG men in the bullpen, we now have 2 LONG MEN -- McCarthy and Tracey -- yet Ozzie still never uses a long man to win a game by getting the starter out before he either blows a lead or turns a deficit into a rout. There are only a few things a manager does within a game that makes or breaks team success. Deciding when to change pitchers is by far the most important task. Ozzie has to realize he's not working with guys who can go 7-2/3 and battle to keep the lead, or keep the game close until we pull ahead. He's working with guys who are physically or mentally tired and who need help. We have the least utilized bullpen in the majors again. Use it Ozzie.

Because this topic goes beyond tonight's game, I'm posting it as a general thread. Tonight was a perfect example of stubborn Ozzie trying to get more out of his starting pitcher than was possible if we were going to win the ballgame. They put up a very telling stat on ESPN. Hitters are only .228 against Vazquez the first two times through the lineup. They are hitting .361 the third time through. Tonight, the Tigers got all 5 runs the third time through. The strategy to win the ballgame would be to have someone up -- Tracey or McCarthy -- to come in for Vazquez as soon as he starts running into trouble after the 5th inning, or after we reach that critical third time through the lineup. Tonight, he should have been yanked after the first two guys reached in the 6th. Why do we have a long man like McCarthy if we aren't going to use him? He faced two batters. He could have been brought in to start the 6th inning, frankly, and we would have been in a much better place to win the game 2-0. Of course, part of the fault has to go to AJ Pierzynski or whomever called for Vazquez to throw whatever that slow gopher pitch was that Monroe hit for the slam. Every time he threw that pitch tonight, someone hit it hard. It never should have been called, especially not with the bases loaded and a 1-run lead. We have a good bullpen, Ozzie, and some shakey starters. You need to readjust your philosophy to nurse the confidence of the starters back to where it should be. Leaving them in to get beat, IMHO, is not the best choice, especially for a mental midget like Vazquez. Last year, the starters were great, and by going long, they made the bullpen even stronger. This year, the bullpen should be used earlier to rest and rehabilitate the starters.

I'm surprised no one picked up on Abreu to the Yankees. I fear that more than I fear him going to the Tigers. Even though the Tigers need on-base guys like Abreu in a bad way, he fits the Yankee personality much better. And, as someone pointed out on another thread, we've had more trouble with the good hitting teams than with teams that can pitch. Unless our starting pitching gets a lot better, I'm not eager to face the Yanks in the postseason without Abreu. I'd be even less excited about facing them if they added Abreu to RF and got Matsui back in LF and Cano at 2B. Where's the weak link in that lineup? What would be really sick is if the Yankees got him for essentially nothing in a salary dump. (I hate it most when they just add useful players because they are the only team that can afford to pay them.) BTW -- I would agree that if Philly would take Thames and Minor that the deal would already be done. The main rumor was that Philly wanted one or more of the Tigers' hot minor league pitchers whose name escapes me at the moment. ********************* Personally, I wish KW would offer Philly Pods and Haeger (or some equivalent minor league pitcher) for Abreu and $6 million cash (to reduce his 2007 salary to $10 million). Then I'd offer Abreu a two-year extension at $10 million per year for 2008-09 to waive his no-trade and tear up his option and $2 million buyout, as long as the new deal didn't have a full no-trade clause (I'd let him veto a trade to some teams). If Abreu balked, I'd offer $12 million for a 1-year extension on the same terms. The value of this is it would be a whole lot more than the Yankees or Tigers will offer. We also have to give up something to get Philly to eat $6 million in contract money. But if we can get him for even less, by all means do so. As I've mentioned elsewhere, Abreu would be a perfect lead off hitter for this lineup. He has created 67 runs (RC27 =7.76) compared to Pod's 47 runs (RC27=5), and I think he can do even better. (Last year the gap was 122RC -- 9th in baseball -- to 68RC -- 124th in baseball.)

I was just glad to read that Mark was tinkering with his delivery. Like Contreras, it's not his arm, it's the little stuff that makes all the difference. I expect him to have ironed out his issues by his next start.

The trade for David Riske is looking better and better. Boston also shipped out Willie Harris, and brought up a pitcher who has been shelled for the few innings he's been in the majors.

Consider for a moment that KW's comments in the Trib today -- that he doesn't think any trades will happen with the Sox, that he's not interested in giving up anyone off his ML roster, etc. -- are not just subterfuge. If we're not going to get better via trades, then I certainly hope 2006 turns out like 2005 and none of our AL rivals get better either. Bobby Abreu. My chief and only real trade concern regarding other teams centers around Bobby Abreu getting moved. I hope he does NOT end up with the Yanks or the Tigers. I think the Yankees are going to pass Boston and win the East. Why? Because they always do. When was the last time Boston won that division? Abreu would be the perfect addition for that club, and would be one of the few teams for which Abreu would waive his no-trade. Of course the Yankees would have to guarantee his 2008 option, but that's no trouble for them. It's not much more than they have been paying Sheffield, who I'm sure they are done with. One of the reasons I want us to try to get Abreu to replace Pods in LF is to keep him from our rivals. Abreu could also really help the Tigers -- one rumored deal is Marcus Thames and Zach Minor -- but I'm less worried about that because I don't see Abreu wanting to play for the Tigers, even if they agree to pay him. There have also been rumors of Abreu to Boston for Trot Nixon. But the Phillies don't want Nixon, and I don't see that happening. Alfonso Soriano. I don't have much concern about Soriano, because good pitching can get him out. Still, I'd worry a bit more if he went to the Angels, who I think will win the AL West and could be our first round playoff opponent. If the Angels can hit, they could be dangerous given the pitching they have. Pitching. I don't think any major pitching is going to move that will affect any of the AL races. That's all I can think of in the moment. Sure, I'd still love to add Tom Gordon without surrendering major league pieces, but if we're not able to help ourselves, I hope it's a dead trading season.

Last offseason when there was all kinds of talk about dumping Garland or that he would go to California, I argued that I thought the guy had turned a corner, was still very young, and was well worth keeping. I think he's going to win a lot of games for us over the next 3 years, and possibly beyond. Frankly, I didn't expect the rough patch he had from April-June, but it appears to be behind him. He's not pitching second best among our starters over his last 5 or 6 games, he's clearly pitched the best stretch of games over that span. He's gone 5-0 and we won the one no-decision where he gave up 5 runs. Indeed, he appears to be having the streak he started last year with, just at a different time of the year. Keep it up Jon. We need all of our starters to pitch as well.

I voted none. With ERAs over 5, Garcia and Vazquez have no value on the trade market, Garland has a 1-year no-trade, and Buehrle and Contreras and McCarthy obviously aren't going anywhere. I expect KW to stick to his 3-year plan and ride it out with these starters. We may go down in flames, but that won't necessarily be the wrong choice. Frankly, if you take Garcia out of the equation, the Sox, even in a good year, will have only 1 postseason ACE -- Contreras. We saw last year and over the last 3 games that good hitting teams can expose Mark Buehrle. He doesn't have the stuff to dominate. In that way, he's a lot like the soft-tossing Atlanta starters -- Glavine, Maddux -- who could never get them over the hump in the postseason. He's a solid #2 or #3 guy, but there are a lot of guys can beat him. Jon Garland may still get better. It's possible he could develop more sink to his sinker or improve his changeup. And he still has a live arm. But do you trust him in a big game? He pitched very well for us against LAA, and battled after Houston got to him a bit, but neither of those teams had powerful patient lineups. Frankly, he may be our second best starter at the moment. Javy Vazquez has never pitched and won a big game in his life. And he appears to shrink the minute he runs into some adversity. Maybe he can be toughened and improved, but he's not trustworthy. McCarthy is completely unproven at this point. Want to stake our playoff lives on giving him a start? (The answer could be YES if these other guys don't turn it around.) As bad as Garcia is now, he's the only one who has had both the stuff and the moxie to defeat powerful hitting teams in big games in the past. So my crystal ball indicates that Kenny Williams is going to stand pat with his starters, but try to add one more arm to the pen to make sure late inning leads stay that way. Last season had he traded Contreras or McCarthy, as many people advocated, we'd be completely screwed. I don't think he's going to go down that road this year either.

QUOTE(Frank the Tank 35 @ Jul 18, 2006 -> 03:17 PM) I don't know if anyone pointed this out in a seperate discussion, but Baseball America chose its minor league all-star teams here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/news/261917.html They picked Fields as their top choice at 3B. Unless KW were intent on keeping him in the team's longterm future plans, now would be the best time to extract maximum value for him. I never understand this "logic." If Josh Fields is BA's choice for the top AAA 3B, then unless they've completely overrated him, his value is only going to increase in the future as he makes it to the major leagues and gains experience. Take Francisco Liriano as an extreme example. He once was traded, along with Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser for 1 year of service from AJ Pierzynski. Now that he's in the majors, he's probably the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball. The White Sox are going to need to develop some players from within if they are going to keep their payroll within acceptable bounds. Fields is likely to be one of those players (even if he'll never be better than Joe Crede is now).

QUOTE(LosMediasBlancas @ Jul 18, 2006 -> 10:16 AM) The only true Haiku in this thread.^ 1st line, 5 syll 2nd line, 7 syll 3rd line, 5 syll 1st and 3rd lines must rhyme What if the second line rhymes too? I wrote this one last year: Great Ozzie man say Pitching and defense the way To World Series play! It still applies.

QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 09:39 PM) These threads are getting wierder by the day. Nothing screams to me more for american baseball, than Japanese poetry. C'mon. Haven't got the creativity to pen a few lines to the success of your favorite team? I'm actually pretty disappointed that so few Sox talk posters seem to be able to conjure up odes to the success of the Sox.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 10:54 PM) Neal Cotts, if he pitches the way he did last year consistantly in the future will have insane trade value and value to this team. A dominant lefty setup man is nearly impossible to find and the Sox could possibly have 2. It is interesting that you're able to carry on a conversation with yourself like you did in the second part of you post so I'll move on. If the Sox were able to acquire a top 3-5 righty setup man in baseball like Scott Linebrink it would improve this team to an insane degree. You seem to love Jenks and Cotts which is cool and all but Linebrink has proven WAY more than those two have, Jenks doesn't even have a full season under his belt and on the Cotts front, in many people's eyes he didn't even have a place on this team in the beginning of '05. This team could set themselves up for a huge run by acquiring Linebrink just think about it: 6th/7th: R: Riske L: Thornton 8th/9th: R: Linebrink L: Cotts Closer: Jenks With McCarthy who is arguably this team's 2nd/3rd best starting pitcher right now moving back into the rotation and Garcia being shipped out for another piece. I know you've never seen Linebrink pitch before so this might not mean a whole hell of a lot to you but to those who have seen the man pitch (sans Fathom) they know how exciting the idea of this bullpen alignment is. Since you are apparently a stats guy, if the guy's so fabulous, why does his career line look so much like David Riske's? Total -- 281 6 0 0 340.1 295 122 112 35 123 303 24 8 2 79 14 2.96 Total -- 307 0 0 0 339.0 281 141 131 47 145 332 17 14 16 36 13 3.48 Which of these two stat lines is better? Especially when one is all NL, and the other is all AL? The main thing Linebrink has on Riske is fewer gopher balls, which likely accounts for the difference in runs allowed and ERA. But at least some of that difference would be lessened by park and league adjustments. Otherwise, the WHIPs are essentially identical. Again, I'd take Linebrink over Riske too. I just wouldn't mortgage the farm to get him.