VAfan

QUOTE(beck72 @ Jun 9, 2006 -> 03:34 PM) IMO, SD would have to drop out of the race for Cameron to be dealt. Or they'd have to get another major league piece to their team instead of prospects But why? They have Dave Roberts, who has already played 10 games in CF this year, and has spent most of his career as a CF. And Giles used to be a CF and could play there in a pinch. So all they need is any outfielder who gives them more than a .620 OPS and .299 SLG and they've lost nothing.

I posted this on the Anderson thread on the main board, and under Outfield Possibilities, but I think this deserves an airing on its own. Why not make a deal to bring Mike Cameron back this year? He has absolutely sucked in cavernous SD stadium, but was fine last year in NY. Compare the two years. 2005 NYM 76 308 47 84 23 2 12 39 29 85 13 1 .273 .342 .477 .819 2006 SD 42 167 23 40 7 0 1 18 19 48 11 0 .240 .321 .299 .620 Given his inability to give SD anything, why wouldn't they be happy to deal him? He signed a 3-year deal in 2004, so it will be up after this season. The contract is for $7.3 million. If the Sox picked up the balance (which we ought to be able to do given attendance), we'd likely have to give up lesser prospects. Cameron ought to be happy moving to a stadium where he can hit, as he's going to be looking for a new contract next year. And though he may not have left on the best terms, that was the former GM's management, not KWs. Plus, Mike Cameron has the second best zone range rating of any CF in MLB, behind --- Brian Anderson. So we wouldn't have to sacrifice defense to add a bat to the lineup. He also has 11 SBs and 0 CSs, which Ozzie would love. Right now we have a ton of players racking up the stats at AAA. If we want to get a deal done, I'm sure SD would be willing. Sure, they like Cameron's D, but it is not as if he's going to be on their team next season. They would deal him in a minute.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jun 9, 2006 -> 01:45 PM) One of the big reasons the Padres are even still in the NL West race is defense. They have excellent defense up the middle, and Cameron keys that. Okay, but I can't believe they wouldn't consider moving Cameron, whose offensive game doesn't fit their ballpark at this point, especially if the Sox were willing to take on the roughly $4 million balance of Cameron's 2006 contract. I know Jerry Owens is no great shakes defensively, but can't they find someone to play CF who could match or better Cameron's pathetic .620 OPS? I just think it wouldn't take that much to pry Cameron away. He's got much more offensive upside for us than Brady Clark, and he's by far the best defensive outfielder we could get our hands on. Plus, the fact he's a stop-gap is a good thing. Acquiring Cameron would make great sense for the Sox.

QUOTE(Steff @ Jun 9, 2006 -> 01:48 PM) Mike Cameron found out he was traded via the ESPN ticker, and had nothing but bad things to say as a result of that (justifiably so, imo). I wouldn't count on him returning to the Sox. That was how many years ago? It is not as if he has veto power over a trade. And who wouldn't want to come back to the defending World Champions when you've never won a title? Plus, he's not helping his prospects at getting another halfway decent contract by slugging less than .300 in cavernous San Diego. He also can't blame Kenny Williams, who wasn't GM when Cameron was dealt. Mike Cameron ought to jump at the chance to come back to Chicago.

I put this up in Trade Winds on the outfield possibilities thread, but it belongs here too. ********* Let me throw two other names into the mix that aren't mentioned here. 1. Eric Byrnes, CF, Arizona. He signed a one-year contract as a bridge to Arizona bringing up our own Chris Young, and he's tearing it up offensively, with 10 HRs. Now, they are still in first place, so they may be happy with him being a bridge player and won't want to jeopardize their playoff chances this year. But he's still a bridge guy, so it is not as if they wouldn't listen to an offer for him. 2. Mike Cameron. He has absolutely sucked in cavernous SD stadium, but was fine last year in NY. Compare the two years. 2005 NYM 76 308 47 84 23 2 12 39 29 85 13 1 .273 .342 .477 .819 2006 SD 42 167 23 40 7 0 1 18 19 48 11 0 .240 .321 .299 .620 Given his inability to give SD anything, why wouldn't they be happy to deal him? He signed a 3-year deal in 2004, so it will be up after this season. Thus, Cameron wouldn't block Anderson's development, it would just delay it. ************* My feeling is that Cameron is the guy we should go after. He started with the Sox, which is a big plus. His defense is still great (second best RF - to Brian Anderson - among ML CFs). And his power should revive in the Cell. Give San Diego Jerry Owens since he can't clear the fences in SD anyway, take on most of the balance of Cameron's $7.3 million 2006 deal, and call it a deal.

Let me throw two other names into the mix that aren't mentioned here. 1. Eric Byrnes, CF, Arizona. He signed a one-year contract as a bridge to Arizona bringing up our own Chris Young, and he's tearing it up offensively, with 10 HRs. Now, they are still in first place, so they may be happy with him being a bridge player and won't want to jeopardize their playoff chances this year. But he's still a bridge guy, so it is not as if they wouldn't listen to an offer for him. 2. Mike Cameron. He has absolutely sucked in cavernous SD stadium, but was fine last year in NY. Compare the two years. 2005 NYM 76 308 47 84 23 2 12 39 29 85 13 1 .273 .342 .477 .819 2006 SD 42 167 23 40 7 0 1 18 19 48 11 0 .240 .321 .299 .620 Given his inability to give SD anything, why wouldn't they be happy to deal him. He signed a 3-year deal in 2004, so it will be up after this season. ************* My feeling is that Cameron is the guy we should go after. Give San Diego Jerry Owens since he can't clear the fences in SD anyway, take on most of the balance of Cameron's $7.3 million 2006 deal, and count ourselves lucky.

I think it was extremely ballsy of Ozzie to put Montero in tonight's game in the 8th with a 1-run lead. Ozzie knows he can't use McCarthy every night, especially not after a two-inning performance. And it is not even clear what he's going to get out of McCarthy on any given night. He seems to swing between great and terrible. As for the names suggested, clearly Guardado doesn't fit the bill as a lefty. Plus he has arm troubles and has been hit hard. Hawkins and Hernandez seem possible. If the Nats hold a fire sale, they have some former Sox who are doing well as set up men -- Majewski and Jon Rauch. They probably won't get moved, though, as I'm sure it's a few years until they are FAs. If we kick off a little winning streak here, KW won't be pressed to act quickly. So let's hope the starters and offense take care of business and put us on a another 22-5 stretch.

I'm glad to see us get a win for Jose tonight and end the slide we had been on in his slot. I wasn't able to see the game, but I'm a little concerned about him toying with his arm angles again. Seems like his walks and hits allowed are both up. But he battled and kept us within a run until we took over the lead. Sure, it was a team effort. But we have to have the pitching to win consistently.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jun 7, 2006 -> 10:23 AM) He's technically the best OF in the AL and depending on what you bank on the most, the best OF in baseball. I'm not really sure why you limited it to rightfielders. No other OF in baseball can touch his 1.074 OPS. Very true. In the offseason I made an argument that Dye should hit third in our lineup, followed by Thome and Konerko, and most posters thought I was crazy. Of course, Thome's not having a bad year himself. I also know Ozzie doesn't like to mess with the core lineup. But against certain lefties, I could see making that move. Last night, for example, wouldn't Dye have been more likely to put a bat on the ball to get Pods home in the first?

I'm not offering any names yet, but with Politte going on the DL with shoulder "soreness," let the speculation begin. We can't expect to go the season with a bullpen that cumulatively has less than Politte's 8 years of experience. Cotts 3, Thornton 2, Jenks Luis Vizcaino, for all his warts when he was here, would look very good in our present bullpen. He's doing well in Arizona. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=6291 I'm not suggesting he's our target, as AZ isn't getting rid of him while they are in first place. So let's hear some other names.

My concern with this bullpen, as I wrote on the eve of the season, is the complete lack of experience. Only Cotts and Jenks pitched in the postseason last year. And our entire pen, with Tracey, has less experience than Cliff Politte had by himself. Politte 8 years Cotts 3 years Thornton 2 years Jenks McCarthy Montero Tracey Wouldn't Luis Vizcaino look good back in Chicago right now? He's done very well in Arizona. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=6291 Of course, the Diamondbacks won't trade him, but he's the kind of right hander we need. Someone who can make 70+ appearances and who thrives the more you use him. I think a back end of the bullpen comprised of Montero and Tracey is a potential disaster, especially since Cotts, Thornton, and McCarthy haven't exactly been lights out.

Sortable Batting RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB BA OBP SLG OPS 1 Jermaine Dye CWS 160 34 49 5 1 17 42 3 2 27 .306 .405 .669 1.074 2 Alex Rios Tor 206 37 74 19 2 11 43 7 4 14 .359 .396 .631 1.028 3 Brad Hawpe Col 198 25 64 10 4 11 33 2 3 25 .323 .399 .581 .980 4 Bobby Abreu Phi 186 44 53 16 2 7 45 9 4 60 .285 .454 .505 .960 5 Vladimir Guerrero LAA 220 34 73 5 0 15 50 5 0 15 .332 .375 .559 .934 6 Casey Blake Cle 196 31 62 14 1 9 35 5 0 24 .316 .395 .536 .930 7 Magglio Ordonez Det 213 33 68 11 0 13 42 1 1 16 .319 .364 .554 .918 8 Jonny Gomes TB 201 33 52 9 1 15 42 1 5 35 .259 .367 .537 .905 9 Austin Kearns Cin 212 38 61 16 0 12 38 2 0 23 .288 .366 .533 .899 10 Jacque Jones ChC 178 22 55 10 0 11 32 1 1 9 .309 .347 .551 .898 For his career, I always thought Dye was just an above-average outfielder who was also prone to long absences from the field. But since he has come to Chicago, he's having his official coming out party. No longer does he deserve to be second fiddle to the other right fielders in the game. Jermaine, at the moment, is #1. Yes, I think he's the best right fielder in the game. Better than Guerrero, Maggs, Abreu, and the new flame from Toronto, Alex Rios. And to think we have him under contract for another season at a complete bargain! I love this guy.

Since Contreras went on the DL on May 10, the Sox have been 0-5 in his slot and 11-13 overall. In the stretch before he went on the DL, we were 22-5. We need to start winning for our "horse" again and start feeding off his dominance. When he's beatable, the Sox aren't the same club.

We are tied for 4th in baseball with 293 runs scored over 53 games. At that pace, we'll score 154 more runs than last year. So, Brian Anderson and Juan Uribe notwithstanding, I don't think the fact we are slightly off our torrid early start from last year can be laid at the feet of the offense. (Though it does cost us games. Case in point - Iguchi's inability to get a bunt down in the 3rd inning of the second game against Cleveland. Had he gotten Ozuna over to 3rd, he would have scored, and that game would have been tied 4-4 in the 9th.) I think the main issue for this team is the bullpen. Compare last year's bullpen ERA to this year's: Cotts 1.94 v. 3.22 Politte 2.00 v. 6.41 Hermanson 2.04 v. no one Jenks 2.75 v. 3.80 Vizcaino 3.73 v. McCarthy 5.28 Marte 3.77 v. Thornton 4.58 As I wrote before the season started, it seemed crazy to start the season with essentially 4 rookies in the bullpen: Jenks (his first April-July stint); Logan (up from A ball); McCarthy (a converted starter without a year in the league); and Thornton (who barely had a year with Seattle and was trying a new delivery). We've been seeing the effects of that decision. Still, I'm not worried. Jenks is doing fine in save situations, which are the most critical moments. Thornton is getting better even as he has occasional flare ups like yesterday. Cotts appears to be coming around. Nelson is a better choice than Logan. And McCarthy just needs to be properly and consistently used. I'm also sure if there's a better arm out there to be had in a trade that KW will pull the trigger. Plus, it's not always the bullpen's fault. Every one of our 5 starters has had games they shouldn't have had. But, for this team to get on track with how it is capable of playing, it is going to have to start with the pitching. That's why we're trailing the Tigers right now. Will the pitching get better? Yes, I think it will. Frankly, I don't see how it could get any worse than it is. Perhaps Contreras and Buehrle won't be able to maintain sub-3.00 ERAs, but every other member of the staff should end up with a better ERA at the end of September than they have now. And for some (like Garland, Politte, McCarthy, and Garcia), it should be a lot better.

I think the period of treading water for our team started the day we put Jose Contreras on the disabled list. Since then, the Sox are 0-5 in the games where his turn came up, with two losses behind the replacement pitchers, and 3 losses since Jose came back himself (only one of which involved a poor performance by Jose). I think we'll regain our equilibrium soon and go back on a tear. But it just highlights how important Contreras has been to the team. He's still our best pitcher, and our team cannot dominate again unless it starts winning the games he starts.

You guys seriously underestimate the Tigers' staying power. Their pitching is MUCH stronger than the Tribe's, and it will keep them in the hunt well into September even if we crack 100 wins. I expect the Tigers to continue on their torrid pace at least through the All-Star break and get far enough over .500 that even if they fall back to a .500 pace, they'll end up winning in the mid-90s and winning the wild card. I don't see the Tribe pitching well enough to go on the 24-4 tear that almost got them in last year. Hitting just isn't consistent enough by itself to carry a team.

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ May 25, 2006 -> 04:30 AM) Of course that sample size you're talking about when BA had no clue is only 34 AB's, and not Anderson's minor league track record. He was always going to get the oppurtunity to start in CF, and other rookies have come in like Grady Sizemore and produced, so it's not impossible to do so. But BA needs time, just like Aaron Rowand did when he 1st came up, and I still think he'll be a productive major league hitter. People just need to be patient. Mack is a streaky hitter so as soon as he gets cold again, Anderson should get the majority of the starts again. Yes, it was a small sample size, but it was enough -- given the fact that it included no walks and 11 or 12 Ks -- to know that he wasn't going to be able to come right in and start hitting. Heck, Joe Crede was probably better as a hitter in the minors -- didn't he win league MVPs in AA and AAA? -- yet it has taken him several years to adjust. I have no problem at all with the way that Ozzie is handling CF at the moment. He's trying to break in Anderson without costing us games. I agree that while Mack has the hot hitting hand he's going to get more time, but Ozzie is still going to push Anderson as much as he can. (I also think Pods isn't out there because Ozzie doesn't want him to get hurt trying to cover more ground.)

It was always unrealistic to give Brian Anderson more than 80-100 games as a rookie when he obviously had no clue at the plate during his call up last September. All the Sox are doing now is settling into a more realistic breaking in period for Anderson. Mack isn't the CF of the future, or even that much of the present. Anderson will always be the late inning defensive replacement, will certainly start against all lefties (and since we haven't done very well against lefties, teams are going to use them against us if they can), and will start against the right handers that Ozzie thinks won't embarrass him. I agree with those who feel defense is important. But Mackowiak has just won us two out of three against Oakland with his bat, so lighten up.

The Tigers are winning a lot like we won last year, with great starting pitching, a shut down bullpen, and just enough offense to win. I don't fear them, but I think they will be in the race for a long time. Expect their youngish rotation to "hit the wall" in the dog days of August, but that will just knock their 100+ win pace back down into the 90s. Cleveland, which hasn't proven it can beat the Tigers and has a much-weakened pitching staff, is going to be hard pressed to keep pace. Minnesota is already toast. Sure, Santana's solid and Liriano might come on, but the rest of their starters are done. They won't make it to .500 if they lose 19 games to the Tigers. We just need to keep our starters healthy, (Contreras's trip to the DL showed just how valuable he is), and beat the Tigers more than they beat us, and I think we'll crack the 100-win ceiling for the first time in franchise history.

Plus, it kept us in first place, ended a 3-game losing streak, and gave us a chance to split the series. If we go off on a new tear, you might look back at this game as pivotal. We hung in there and rallied, unlike the night before when a couple of blown calls by the umps caused us to unravel. As for Dye, it is hard to believe a guy with his talent is only on his 200th HR. It has to be the injury factor from past years. When he stays healthy and on the field, he is a great right fielder. Frankly, he ought to be considered for the All-Star game. Kenny sure knew what he was doing letting Maggs go and replacing him with Dye. The guy's a total bargain.

After last night's performance, I came her expecting to write AMEN to some post about another masterful pitching job by the ACE of our staff. Anyway, when I didn't find such a post, I decided to start one. Let me put my love for Jose this way. With him on our staff, I give us a pretty fair shot at winning another World Series. Without him, I'd say our chances would be negligible. That's how much of a difference having a true #1 ACE can make. Keep up the great work Jose. You are da MAN!

Oh, ye of little faith. I would agree that 114 or 116 wins is asking a bit much, but this team is a lot better than you think it is. Not only are we MUCH better on paper, we are looking at the team that went 16-1 to close out last season. That team found plate discipline to go along with all the other ways it learned to execute to win ball games. The only weakness we have is that we're green in the bullpen. 110 wins. That's my new prediction (up from 101).

Before the season started, I predicted 101 wins on the pre-season prediction thread. One more win than any team in franchise history. But after seeing how easily this team has picked up where it left off last September-October, I wonder how many games we will win this year. Specifically, I wonder whether this team will go on the kind of tear that only a few teams in major league history have been on, most recently the 1998 New York Yankees and the 2001 Seattle Mariners. Here's a link to the records of those teams: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/1998.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2001.shtml The Yankees went 114-48, the M's did two games better at 116-46. The Yanks scored 965 runs and gave up 646. The M's scored 927 and gave up 627. Last year we scored 741 and gave up 645. I'm not going to do a full analysis here. But I will say a few things. First, neither the Yanks nor the M's had a player hit 40 HRs. The Yanks didn't even have a 30 HR guy (the M's only had 1 - Bret Boone). Yet every starter on the Yanks drew 46 BBs or more and hit at least 10 HRs (so they still hit 207 as a team). The M's were not as consistent through the lineup (and hit only 162 HRs), but the team totals were remarkably similar. These were the batting lines for each team: Yanks. .288 BA, .362 OBP, .460 SLG M's. .288 BA, .360 OBP, .445 SLG On the pitching side, these were the rotations: Yanks: Pettitte, Cone, Wells, Irabu, El Duque, Mendoza (swing) M's: Garcia, Moyer, Sele, Abbott, Halama, Pinero Bullpen: Yanks: Rivera, Stanton, Lloyd, Nelson, Holmes M's: Sasaki, Rhodes, Nelson, Paniagua, Charlton So, how to compare? We have a lot more power than the M's, and will probably surpass the Yank's 207 HR total with everyone in our lineup but Pods hitting 10 or more. Yet we'll be hard pressed to match the BA or OBP of either team. On the pitching side, our rotation is much stronger than either the Yanks or M's -- they each had 3 200-inning guys, we have 5 -- but our bullpen isn't close to having the depth of Seattle's. And we don't have Rivera to finish games off. If you boil it down to run differential, our pace after 18 games would put us remarkably close to the 1998 Yankees: 962 runs scored and 656 runs allowed. Now, I don't think we can keep up the offensive pace, but I also think we'll get better in the runs allowed department, putting us closer to Seattle's final numbers. So there you have it. It's still very early, but the 2006 Sox have a chance to blow the roof off the franchise's 100-win ceiling. I think they'll do it. I just hope they finish the job like the 1998 Yanks did.

QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Apr 24, 2006 -> 02:09 AM) Did you happen to watch the postseason? Buehrle pitched one great game out of 3 starts. Our offense bailed him out of two potential losses in which he was behind 4-0 and 4-2. The 4-0 comeback was aided by the infamous Tony Graffanino boot job. Contreras pitched 4 great starts out of 4. If he throws home on the comebacker in the first game against the Angels, that game is still 2-2 in the 9th. Garcia pitched a solid game against Boston in the series clincher. His role was forgotten because Damaso Marte proceeded to try to screw it up, then El Duque got him off the hook. His next game was a complete game victory over the Angels. He finished it off with 7+ innings of shut out ball against the Astros in the WS clincher. Winning pitcher in two series clinching games. Not too shabby. Certainly better than Buehrle pitched in the postseason.

And the Count is the one guy we can count on in the postseason. Buehrle is a tremendous regular season pitcher because he's so consistent. But like Tom Glavine, he's beatable in a big game. I'd actually rate Freddie Garcia our second best money pitcher (assuming he really hasn't lost velocity).