VAfan

With our rotation, I think we will have quite a few 8-2 and 9-1 ten game stretches, (and likely something longer than our 8-game win streaks last year), while on the bad side, we should never do worse than 5-5. 101+ wins. A new Sox record. Count on it. There's a long way to go, some bullpen issues, and some very competitive teams in the AL, but our great starting pitching is the best formula for very strong winning stretches.

I'm not surprised Anderson is struggling. This is basically a repeat of last September's performance. It's going to take him time. The problem is magnified because he's not the only automatic out in the lineup. Podsednik behind him is hitting even worse, probably because he didn't have a spring training. And Mackowiak also stinks right now in reserve. (Plus Uribe is below the Mendoza line.) Realistically, Anderson should only start 3-4 days a week, plus be a late inning defensive replacement, until he can prove by performance that he deserves more time. Mackowiak should get the other starts for the foreseeable future, maybe even for the whole seaaon. The only thing that surprises me is that Ozzie doesn't seem to ask Anderson to bunt, at least in the few games I've watched. Given his strike out numbers, he needs to bunt runners over, and learn to cut down on his swing with two strikes. As an aside, I think we're going to find in the long run that Kenny Williams kept the wrong outfielder. Chris Young is more likely to become a star than Brian Anderson. He has stolen base speed and he has an eye for the strike zone, walking tons more than Anderson ever has. Anderson can become a good player; I just don't expect him to ever be a great player. (BTW - I'm not suggesting we not do the Vazquez trade.)

As I mentioned at the outset of this thread, I just wanted to get the rant out of my system. Now that I've done so, and especially now that Jose Contreras decided to accept the Sox offer and buy into this team for a 3-year extension -- something noted above that I wanted all offseason -- I'm fine with the White Sox pitching staff. Indeed, I'm ECSTATIC! Yes, I think there will be some blown saves and some growing pains, and I don't expect us to get off to quite same raging start we had last year, but I think with our tremendous starting depth and much much better bench that we'll still be clicking in August and September. (Indeed, I expect us to be kicking ass then.) And by then, the "rookies" in our pen won't seem like rookies anymore. Signing Contreras may have one additional benefit. Brandon McCarthy should now realize he has to focus in the moment on being a great relief pitcher. He can't be thinking that Contreras is going to be dealt mid-season. Once he gets his head around that, I think he'll become very good - perhaps lights out. So, as I said at the beginning -- GO GET EM ROOKS! GO WHITE SOX!! BACK-TO-BACK WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!

Just read the news, and as anyone who knows my views on this board, I'm ECSTATIC!!! For all our great starting pitching, JOSE CONTRERAS IS THE ONE WHO GIVES US A CHANCE TO WIN MORE WORLD SERIES. He is the only guy among our top 5 who is a true #1 postseason starter. And by holding down that critical spot, the rest of our guys just completely overmatch what anyone else can throw at us. What I can't believe is how many guys still want to trade the strength of the team -- quality starting pitching depth. It's true that I posted a controversial thread in the offseason -- Sign Contreras, deal Vazquez midseason. We finally have the first half of that equation in the bank. But even I'm not eager to deal right now. I want all 5 of our starters to be lights-out. Brandon McCarthy? We need him to become a bullpen star at the moment and provide starters insurance. He'll get his chance to be a starting ace in due course. After all, I think we've got him for at least 5 more years. In the meantime, just celebrate the fact we have the best rotation in baseball locked up through 2007. Teams that win multiple World Series titles in a short span start with great pitching. I like our chances of joining that elite group now more than ever. GO WHITE SOX!!! BACK-TO-BACK WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!

Before the season starts, I just want to rant for one second to get this out of my system. What I don't want to do is come back to it during the season if things don't work out. I just want to pull wholeheartedly for the Sox to repeat. WHAT WAS KENNY WILLIAMS THINKING??????? Our 6-man bullpen -- which was an immensely important part of our division title and run to the World Series last year (except for the ALCS) -- is essentially made up of 4 "rookies," a third-year guy (Cotts), and a veteran with a career ERA of 4.06 (Cliff Politte). Why do I call Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, Brandon McCarthy, and Boone Logan "rookies"? 1. Boone Logan is a rookie by all definitions. Never pitched above "A" ball. 2. Brandon McCarthy is a converted starter who has never pitched out of the bullpen, and hasn't pitched a full year in the majors in any capacity. 3. Matt Thornton pitched a full year last year, but we know he stunk for Seattle. We're counting on him because we've changed his delivery. How many innings has he thrown with this new delivery? 2? 3? 5? I don't know, but not very many. 4. Bobby Jenks, our closer, came up for half the year last year. He hasn't pitched in April-June in the big leagues yet. Plus, if he failed last year, we had veteran backups. So, we've put the fate of a World Series champion ballclub in the hands of a bullpen that may have the LEAST experience in the major leagues. Mariano Rivera, with 11 years experience, has almost as much as our entire bullpen combined. (Politte 8 + Cotts 2 + Thornton 1 + Jenks 1/2 + McCarthy 1/2 + Logan 0 = 12). THIS IS SCARY. THIS IS CRAZY. Now one argument that is made is that we don't need to rely on our bullpen that much because we have such great starting pitching. True. But we had great starting pitching last year and we still had to rely extensively on our bullpen to win all those 1-run and 2-run games. If we didn't win at a .667 clip in tight ballgames, we might have never made the postseason. Another argument that is made is our offense will be better this year, which will mean fewer 1-run squeakers. I think this is true too. I expect us to score from 60-100 more runs this year, and this will help a lot. But it won't eliminate tight contests which depend on a shut-down bullpen to win. So what is to be done?? Well, nothing can be done at the moment. Kenny Williams chose the promise (and leverage - since Garland wasn't signed and Contreras still isn't signed) of having Javier Vasquez in the rotation instead of the relative security of having El Duque and Jose Vizcaino in the bullpen (with McCarthy in a more natural starting role). This was a very risky choice given Dustin Hermanson's balky back. It is a choice that may bite us, since we didn't try to cover ourselves by going after a quality free agent reliever to stabilize the bullpen. (BTW - I'm not suggesting we reverse the choice.) One hope is that the MAGIC MAN, DON COOPER, can ride to the rescue. Cooper didn't fix Boone Logan's delivery, but he may have fixed Matt Thornton's, and he can probably get McCarthy to make the transition to the bullpen. Certainly, he has helped Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte become dominating set up men. Baseball sense suggests that having all these "rookies" in the bullpen is going to cost us dearly. Thus my need to rant. But it is also possible it won't. We may not do as well in 1-run contests this year -- regression to the mean alone suggests we won't -- but that doesn't mean we can't keep it together as a team and play great baseball, staying at the very least in the hunt for another division title. By midseason, if we need help, we also know that Kenny Williams will do everything possible to pick up a veteran arm if we need one (or two). And maybe, just maybe, our 4 "rookies" in the pen will perform like veterans. If that happens, it could make 2006 every bit as magical as 2005. GO GET EM ROOKS!! GO WHITE SOX, 2005 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!!!!!!

The problem with Nelson is that lefties hit him pretty hard, he's a veteran you can't just send down to AAA and bring back during the season, and he makes more than the Sox are likely to want to spend on the back end of their bullpen. The pen right now is: Jenks Cotts Politte McCarthy Thornton Logan (Hermanson DL) If you add Nelson and send Logan down, what do you do if and when Hermanson returns? Ship out Thornton? Can he be shipped out without losing him? Since Nelson can't get lefties out, does it make sense to get rid of the LOOGY's? Do you ship out a bench player like Ross Gload? I doubt Nelson will end up back in NY -- that ship has sailed. But I also think we should pass. I thought Thornton was a stretch, but I think at this point management is committed to ironing him out. He only has to pitch as well as Damaso Marte did last year, which isn't asking that much. We could use an innings eater like Vizcaino at the back end of the pen, but Nelson isn't that. He's only pitched 60 innings total over the last two years.

QUOTE(JimH @ Mar 19, 2006 -> 05:11 PM) Why post it then? I prefer to live in reality. Are Juan Cruz and Antonio Osuna any closer to reality? In 257 posts, I don't think anyone has figured out who the Sox might add to the bullpen.

Here's another name to throw in the hopper. It's from an ESPN article rating the top 5 WBC players who are big-league ready. ************************ 3. Pedro Luis Lazo (Cuba) At 6-3 and 235 pounds, Lazo is a physically imposing right-handed pitcher reminiscent of Roberto Hernandez in his prime. The 32-year-old veteran -- one of the greatest Cuban pitchers ever -- has a smooth delivery with little deception and has been used in multiple roles in the Classic. With a fastball that tops out at 96 and a bone-crushing slider with a late-breaking tilt, Lazo's electric stuff can dominate an opposing lineup no matter when he enters the game. Frequently delivering from a high three-quarters slot and throwing his sinkers and sliders low in the zone, Lazo ends up pitching downhill (as the scouts say) -- thus making his pitches very hard to elevate for power. He throws few off-speed pitches but varies his arm angles and isn't afraid to straighten up hitters by pitching inside when needed. Even his waste pitches are carefully located to induce hitters to swing at them. Lazo could pitch in the majors tomorrow if given the chance. While he is capable of starting games and could also close them, he would probably be best used as a durable setup pitcher. In that role, Lazo could go two or three innings if needed and could also pitch on consecutive days. The only questions are how many miles are left on his career odometer and how many years his strong right arm could stand the strain of facing big-league power bats every day. ********************** I'm not really serious, since it would require him to defect and then for us to outbid others for his talents, but he appears better than some other names tossed around in this post, and we have done well with Cuban pitchers....

QUOTE(GreatScott82 @ Feb 20, 2006 -> 07:29 PM) Now that our lineup is tentatively set for the 2006 season: Pods, Uribe, Thome, Konerko, Dye, Gooch, AJ, Anderson, Crede I was one of the guys who suggested Dye would be a very good choice for the #3 hole, for two reasons. First, you can't knock the 16-1 success we had once Ozzie finally put him there. Second, hitting third made Dye a more patient hitter. That slot maximized his potential. (It is the same reason Ozzie is talking about hitting Uribe #2 and moving Gooch down.) However, heads up, I would agree that Thome, if healthy (and I'm not doubting he is) is a stronger #3 hitter. So I don't have any beef with hitting Thome third. I just don't think it is an overwhelming slam dunk. The main additional quibble I have is having Crede hit 9th. In September, this guy was a .371 power hitter. Granted, he's gone into huge funks in the past, but if he's anything close to his post-DL self this year, he would be completely wasted in the 9 hole behind two guys who never get on base - AJ and Anderson. If Crede can pick up where he left off, he should really be hitting 6th, where his HRs have some shot of driving in Thome, Konerko, and Dye. Otherwise his 30 (potential) HRs are most likely to be solo shots. I also don't think there is any way Gooch will hit more dingers than Crede. (If Dye hits 5th, I would agree that Gooch's hit and run skills would be better than Crede's if Dye alone is on base. But if you are going to hit Gooch 6th, Crede has to hit 8th to get some value out of his plus power.) So my lineup, if Uribe can hold down the #2 hole, would be: Pods, Uribe, Dye (or Thome), Konerko, Thome (or Dye), Crede, AJ, Gooch, Anderson. At the end of the lineup, I also think it is better to run Gooch and get Anderson more fastballs to hit, or sacrifice Anderson with Gooch more likely to get on, than to waste Gooch (or Crede) hitting behind a guy most likely to have the worst OBP on the team. Ultimately, however, I don't think it makes that much difference where guys hit. It is much more important that they hit. Uribe needs to keep doing what he did in the postseason, drawing walks. Thome needs to show his injuries are in the past. Dye needs to stay out of his early-season slump. Crede needs to be consistent. Anderson needs to make contact and try to draw his first ML walk. Pods needs to keep getting on and use his speed. Konerko needs to have another consistent year.

I'm not surprised that talks have "dried up" in this current period, but I hope the Sox decide to revive things before the distractions of spring training threaten to put his contract on hold for the season. If that happens and Jose repeats his late-2005 and postseason performance, the Sox will be in a similar situation we were in with Paul Konerko. Everyone will want Jose back, and KW will be forced to pay a lot more to bring him back. Why to I want him back? I think the Sox can get by during the regular season without him (though we wouldn't have made the postseason last year without his 11-2 second half). But in the postseason, we don't really have a dominant starting staff without Jose holding down the #1 slot. Good, yes; dominant, no. Remember, Jose was 3-1 this year in the postseason, never giving up more than 3 runs in any of his starts, in each of which he pitched into the 8th inning or later. Mark Buehrle, by contrast, gave up 4 runs in two of his 3 starts and needed offensive help to bail him out. (He would have been 1-2 if he faced off against Jose.) Jon Garland was great in one of his two starts, and fell behind 4-0 in the other. Freddie Garcia, who Ozzie will always want to save for the road, was the only other starter who pitched like a #1 guy, holding Boston to 3 runs in Boston, Anaheim 2 runs in a complete game in Anaheim, and shutting out the Astros in Houston in the WS clinching game. If you take out Jose, all of our postseason pitching matchups will likely look worse, and that is no small factor if we are trying to win another World Series. Put it this way - with Jose I think the Sox can match up with anyone, including the Yankees, in the postseason. Without Jose, I think our odds of repeating will take a big hit. So what will it take to bring him back? As I've speculated elsewhere, I think the issue is more contract length than money. Jose wants at least a 3-year extension (4 years overall); while the Sox only want to add 2 more years (3 years overall). If they wait until the season is over, that extra year difference will go away, but for now it seems like a big deal. So why not try to turn the "4th" year into an one that is triggered automatically if Contreras meets certain milestones? It seems like the sides could work something out. The Sox need to work it out, because if we don't, where do you think he'll end up in 2007 and beyond? My bet would be the Yankees.

Hey, chitownsportsfan, welcome aboard. (Maybe JimH will follow your posts and attempt to rip them as he does mine. Just remember to have a thick skin, and stick to your understanding of baseball, sabremetrics included.) Let me add a few comments to those made since my last addition to this thread. 1. As the title of the post states, and as my #84 post reiterated, the Sox need to re-sign Contreras to an extension if the they want to entertain the Vazquez trade that I suggest. And there is every reason to do so. First, Contreras was a great #1 pitcher on a World Series champion, and no other pitcher the Sox have can fill those shoes. In 4 lengthy starts, he never surrendered more than 3 runs. Mark Buehrle, whom many of you defend as God, gave up 4 runs in two of his 3 starts, and only had one exceptional game out of 3. (Freddie Garcia also pitched better than MB in the postseason but can't really be a #1 if we start at home.) If you let Contreras walk, you DRAMATICALLY weaken the Sox starting rotation for the postseason because all the matchups change. And, given the fact that we won the WS by a combined 6 runs, it is pretty damn crucial to win those matchups. Second, Contreras turned into an 11-2 dominant pitcher in the second half last year after he returned to the 3/4 delivery he'd used to dominate in Cuba. There is no reason to suggest that he can't keep this kind of form for the rest of his career. The man is physically the strongest of any of our starting pitchers. When Roger Clemens can perform as he has well into his 40's, why would any of you believe that Jose Contreras is somehow going to drop off in the next couple of years?? 2. Contreras is worth the $13 million/year he apparently is asking for, and I would bet the Sox would basically agree to that figure if he agreed to a two-year and not a 3-year extension. If the Sox can afford Contreras at $8 million, they can afford him at $13 million after he leads us to another WS crown in 2006. Compared to AJ Burnett or Kevin Millwood, Contreras would be a bargain. 3. I do have my doubts about Brian Anderson, mostly because he showed ZERO plate discipline in September (no BBs and 13 Ks in 34 ABs), and didn't show that much discipline in AAA. Anderson's AAA numbers aren't really any better than Joe Borchard's. So let's just say that until he proves something, I'm a skeptic. If he gives us Rowand-like defense, we may be able to allow him to develop offensively, but I hope we don't have to rely on him for more than about 250 ABs. 4. The fact that KW has coveted Javier Vazquez for some time has no bearing on whether it would be a good move to trade him at the deadline this year for the right player(s). If Contreras has signed an extension and Vazquez is still the weakest of our starting 5, then why wouldn't KW consider trading him if he needs to fill a major hole on our team? I'm sure KW covets JV for his potential, but he may decide after a closer look that the potential is not there, or that Vazquez has more value in bringing us a player that will help us win a second WS than he would have out of the bullpen in the postseason (where he would go if he's not outpitching JC, MB, FG, or JG). I'm not saying it is likely that such a trade will be made, only that it makes more sense than trading Vazquez (or Contreras) now. 5. Fair point about Abreu wanting a team to exercise his $18 million option to waive his no trade. We'll see if it happens. Since Abreu's never going to see that money anyway, it would be senseless to hold up a deal on those grounds, especially a deal that could send him from underachieving Philly to the WS Champion ChiSox and our Venezuelan manager. Moreover, with Thome protecting him in 2004, Abreu posted an OPS in the .970s. Last year with Thome hurt, he dropped almost .100 points. I could see him waiving his no-trade to come to the Sox. It's a different point whether Philly would be willing to eat part of Abreu's $16 million 2007 deal. For Vazquez straight up, probably not. For another quality prospect like Gio Gonzalez (do we have one?) thrown in, I could see it happening.

QUOTE(AirScott @ Jan 11, 2006 -> 10:13 PM) he was beyond terrible at the plate in May and August. he was A-W-F-U-L. in May he batted .155; in August he hit .103 (thats 6-for-58). so in May/August he hit .133, and the rest of the season he hit .310. last year I predicted he'd go for .280-25-80, and if he would have had just a normal slum in those two months (you know, something in the .200-.220 area, which is still bad) he'd have delivered and made me look smarter. good news is Crede hit .379 in September, and .289 in the playoffs, so it wouldn't be a stretch for Crede to have a big year. That's my view too, which is why I argued in an earlier thread that the Sox should try to sign Crede to a 3-year deal, BEFORE he becomes a consistent hitter. We signed Mackowiak to a multi-year deal though he was arb-eligible. Same with AJ. Apply the same rationale with Crede. Even though he has Boras as his agent, if Crede does have a break-out year offensively, even if the Sox signed Boras's 3-year demand it would be less than his demand will be for next year's arbitration. But, because Crede can't go anywhere until 2009!, and Boras's demands will seem very unreasonable if Crede only repeats his offensive trends (or gets hurt), it is unlikely a deal will be made. If Crede can lay off the outside breaking pitches (or take those in the zone the other way), which he was doing after he came off the DL, the guy could do .280-30-95, especially if they hit him 6th in the lineup behind Paul Konerko and Jim Thome. (I'd put Dye third, where he was during our season-ending 16-1 streak.)

I'm glad to see that most of the recent posters to this thread agree that Vazquez, as of right now, cannot be considered better than JC, MB, JG, or FG, especially since he's coming in from the NL into a HR park (he gave up 65 HRs the last two years). Certainly we all hope that Cooper can bring him back closer to his Montreal levels, but I'd be shocked if he can get his ERA below 4.00 in the Cell. What I wanted to add, however, is a link to a Philly.com article today about an Abreu-for-pitching deal possibly happening in the middle of next year. I've excerpted the relevant parts. http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/13596113.htm If you think the Phillies' pitching hasn't improved in this off-season, you aren't alone. Pat Gillick agrees.... "The one area that we've been trying to focus on... is our pitching," Gillick said. "And that's the area we haven't improved, both the front end and the back end."... "The type of person that we're looking for - and they're hard animals to find - is a No. 1 or No. 2 starter," Gillick said.... Gillick reiterated yesterday that the most likely route for obtaining a quality starter would come via a trade. Rightfielder Bobby Abreu is considered the obvious candidate. *************************** In mid-July next year, unless Vazquez improves a lot more than I expect he will, I'd be more than willing to trade Vazquez for Abreu, especially if the Phillies were willing to eat $4-6 million of his $16 million 2007 contract total. Of course, our other starters and McCarthy would all have to be healthy and we'd also likely have to have signed Contreras to an extension. If you think about it, who is going to be able to offer the Phillies a better pitcher than Vazquez for Abreu, and who is also going to want Abreu for their team? I can't think of a team. For us, however, Abreu would be a great fit - Venezuelan, with some speed, perfect #3 hitter, lefty bat, huge offensive upgrade over Anderson and better offensively than any of our outfielders. By midseason, having that 6th starter (who likely won't have much of a postseason role) will have less value than boosting our offensive production. But until then, it is probably better to have the pitching depth.

Three points: 1. Pitching depth is critical for the regular season; pitching quality is critical for the postseason. For example, Mark Buehrle is very consistent in the regular season, but he's not a #1 postseason guy. In two out of his 3 starts, he would have been beaten if Jose Contreras or Freddie Garcia was on the other side. Because Contreras is a quality #1 guy, we absolutely need him if the Sox want to make it to another World Series next year. Slotting Contreras #1 means our 2-4 guys are likely to have the advantage over their opponents' starters. If you took out Contreras and made our #2 (Buehrle) go against their #1, etc., our biggest advantage would be neutered. Give me last year's top 4 guys and I think we can beat the Yankees' new murderers' row lineup. Take out Contreras at the top and put Vazquez in at #4 and I think we'll get beaten in 5 or 6 games. 2. Anyone here think Javier Vazquez is a better pitcher than Contreras, Garcia, Buehrle, or Garland? Anyone even take him over Brandon McCarthy? If you want to challenge the premise of the post, you have to step forward and make the case that Vazquez is better than one of those guys. 3. I'd be willing to let Brandon McCarthy slide in and take Vazquez's place in mid-season next year, but I think it's risky believing a guy with his light frame can go a full season in the rotation at his age without going down with an injury. There have been a lot of Bobby Abreu rumors on this site. To me, the time to trade for Abreu may well be this coming July, when he might be had for nothing more than Javier Vazquez (if the Phillies want to rebuild). If Brian Anderson is struggling (or Dye or Pods are hurt), that would be a trade that could help balance the Sox' lineup. So, we'll see what happens. Whether or not Jose takes the Sox' extension offer, I believe we'll go to spring training and into the season with our 6 main starters. And I think that's the best choice the Sox can make.

QUOTE(RME JICO @ Jan 6, 2006 -> 05:13 PM) I am curious to see how the batting order will play out. It seems like the only slots that are pretty much locks are #1 and #4. There is a pretty big difference between the #3 and #5 slots, so that will be interesting to see how it plays out. It would almost seem better to sandwich Thome in between Paulie and Dye to provide a nice R - L - R punch, but it looks like it is going to be either Dye-Paulie-Thome or Thome-Paulie-Dye. I think a case can be made either way. My point about Dye is that he'll draw more walks hitting 3rd than if he hits 5th or later, thus increasing his hitting value, while I think Thome will be the same hitter in any slot. Plus, hitting Thome behind Paulie will force him to continue being selective, knowing that if he walks, Thome could hit a 3-run dinger behind him. It is also possible to hit Dye 3rd against lefties but drop him against righties, with Thome moving up. I'd leave Konerko hitting cleanup when he's in there, but wouldn't hesitate to move other guys. As Juggernaut points out, however, the key may be Uribe in the #2 hole.

As a stat fan, I applaud the work you have done Juggernaut. And I totally agree with some of your conclusions (though I have been ripped elsewhere for posting them). "They have tasted victory by having the best rotation in baseball." "They will sacrifice lumber before they will sacrifice pitching." I certainly hope this is true, which is why I kept posting against the view that KW should dump Jon Garland or Jose Contreras in any number of trades. Give me Contreras, especially, as a postseason horse, and I think the Sox match up fine with the Yankees. I also find your analysis regarding Juan Uribe very interesting. Hitting him #2, if he can learn to focus like he did in September and the postseason (where he was very patient and drew walks), could allow him to blossom into a tremendous hitter (and make Sox fans we glad we didn't pull off the rumored Tejada trade). Presumably he'll get more fastballs in the zone in this slot too, and he should crush those. As far as the lineup goes, I personally would prefer Ozzie to hit Thome 5th rather than 3rd, with Dye moving up to the 3 hole. I believe Dye was a more patient hitter when put in the 3rd slot at the end of the season and postseason, and you can't argue with the results. Dye was WS MVP, and the Sox scored 14, 5, 4, 2, 2, 5, 8, 6, 4, 7, 7, and 1 runs, winning 11 out of 12 games. With all the righties, it is also beneficial to have a lefty hitting in the middle of the lineup. I also think Joe Crede, if he continues where he left off after his disabled-list stint last year, could hit 6th. With Thome and Konerko on base so much but being slow, hitting Crede 6th takes maximum advantage of Crede's power. Iguchi's hit-and-run skills would be wasted here. That would slide Iguchi to 8th, perhaps an unreasonable "demotion," but with his speed, it would also allow the 8, 9, and 1 guys to try to manufacture runs. Lastly, I don't think KW will put McCarthy in AAA again unless he loses himself in spring training. He's on record as saying McCarthy should develop in the bullpen against major league hitters so I don't think that'll change. We also need the quality arm out there (and a long guy now that Javier Vazquez and his 11 poor outings are in the rotation). Then we only have to fill one slot from among minor league hopefuls Bajenaru, Tracey, et al. (It's also still possible KW will sign someone and carry 12 pitchers.) Again, great work Juggernaut.

Well, since I wasn't for Contreras/Uribe for Tejada, I'm certainly not for Contreras, Uribe, Sweeney and another prospect for Tejada. I think Contreras will sign an extension, and I'd much rather have him than Tejada in the postseason. Indeed, Contreras was the key to our entire postseason rotation. Not only was he more than a match for everyone he faced (his one loss stemmed from a fielding flaw, not a pitching flaw), but he set all the other matchups so the Sox had the advantage in those games too. Pitching, pitching, pitching ... is the key to the World Series. If the Sox were in Boston's shoes, without a major league SS on the roster, I might feel differently. But Uribe at 25 is not only better defensively than Tejada (9.3 win shares v. 6.1 win shares), but his bat has the potential to be 80% of Tejada's, as this baseball reference comparison shows. http://baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.c...=age&compage=25 Juan Uribe 2001-2005 5 594 2138 286 561 113 30 63 280 125 408 .262 .305 .432 32 21 82 932 Miguel Tejada 1997-2001 5 612 2286 368 587 119 11 95 367 196 393 .257 .324 .443 32 18 99 And as I pointed out on the other thread on this subject, in the postseason last year, Uribe hit better than Tejada has in every playoff series except his first one. My only other comment about the rumor is that it doesn't make sense. Why would the Sox offer MORE after Baltimore's other deals for Tejada fall apart?

QUOTE(quickman @ Jan 1, 2006 -> 02:45 PM) for many here its not about good business, its about who there favorite player is. Vasquez is five or six years younger than contraras and needs to visit the psych counselor once a month instead of weekly. For me it is all about the quality of the player. I didn't grow to love Frank Thomas because he was a nice guy. He was just the best hitter, BY FAR, to ever don a Sox uniform (Shoeless Joe included). But I understand why the Sox had to cut him loose this year. And, JimH, yes I believe that performance in baseball shows up in the stat sheets. In any other sport, stats don't mean that much, but in baseball, they mean a hell of a lot. Not everything. But it's pretty damn close. If you want to add character or performance under pressure as a measure, then that would just elevate Contreras another couple of steps in my mind. I'll grant you, he sure didn't seem to be that kind of pitcher in June of last year. But once he found his Cuban personna again, I don't think he's going to lose it for the rest of his career. Vazquez, on the other hand, seems to me like he's lost his way on the mound. 65 HRs in 2 years. Maybe he'll find his way again, and I hope so, and if he does, then I won't want to trade him. But until he proves it, he would be the guy I'd consider moving at the deadline if I the Sox have some major hole(s) to fill.

QUOTE(JimH @ Jan 2, 2006 -> 04:29 PM) Yeah, I watched the whole postseason and the parade. I also know how Williams and Reinsdorf like to run the franchise which is something you are still unable or unwilling to grasp. Tejada's postseason stats? Please, stop it. You can manipulate small samples any way you want. Tejada is arguably the top SS in the game. The point, which I will reiterate because you are unable to grasp it, is if Contreras indicates an unwillingness to sign an extension, the Sox will move him rather than lose him for nothing. If he signs, great, I love a deep pitching staff. If he won't sign, I want the best possible return. I suspect this is what Williams is thinking, again, I am trying to think along with him vs. what you do, which is throw out your opinion and ignore the way they do business. I'm not sure what your first point is. I said KW would try to re-sign Garland and that until they went to arbitration, there was time to work out a deal. You said he didn't want to play for the Sox but only wanted to go to the West Coast. Isn't that correct? I don't follow how you can continue to accuse me of being clueless. I know that KW and JR want to bring another WS championship to Chicago, and signing Contreras to an extension I believe is part of that plan. It is part of the plan because it makes the most sense. The point about Tejada isn't about small statistical samples. It is about whether a great pitcher is more valuable in the postseason than a position player. My point still stands and you've offered nothing to rebut it. Great pitchers are more reliable because they control the ball. That's why great pitching more often wins championships. In baseball the defense has the ball. Tejada can be shut down in the postseason, just like many other superstars - A-Rod was a perfect example this year. Great pitchers cannot really be shut down. It takes a rival great pitcher to beat them. Give me Contreras over Tejada straight up in every postseason from now until Contreras retires. This point is further hammered home by noting that hitters who are not great over the course of a season can nonetheless hit better than superstars do in the postseason. So, in the regular season, Tejada will outhit Uribe ten seasons out of ten. But in the postseason, Uribe hit better in 2005 than Tejada did in every postseason but Tejada's first try, in 2000. If Tejada were free and we could afford him, sure I'd take him over Uribe even in the postseason. But he's not free. Baltimore would demand starting pitching plus Uribe. That's not a trade that will help us build another World Series winning team. Finally, if Contreras doesn't sign an extension with the Sox this offseason, I'll be surprised. Right now the sides are posturing, just like the Konerko posturing or the Garland posturing. We'll see what happens.

QUOTE(JimH @ Jan 2, 2006 -> 02:25 AM) Wow, talk about a bunch of assumptions. Why is it you believe Contreras loves it here, when it fits your viewpoint, but you didn't believe Garland preferred to play out west when it didn't fit your viewpoint? You doubt the Orioles would want Contreras at his age, even if he signed an extension? And you use that rationale to state the Sox don't need Tejada's offense to get back to the playoffs? Any more quantum leap assumptions you want to make? The bottom line is this, in case you haven't cracked the code yet: Williams wants cost certainty. If he can't get it, he will take players to market. Right now, that's Contreras, just like it was with Garland until he re-signed. These players are interested in what's best for them, God bless Garland for "presumably" taking less to stay in Chicago, hopefully that same scenario will work with Contreras. To say Tejada is not a proven postseason commodity is about as shorthsighted of an argument I've ever heard. Will you please throw out your complete bias on small sample stats? Stats can be manipultated any way you want, you are great at manipulating them to fit your opinion. We'll see whether Contreras signs an extension with the Sox. I believe he will. If you don't think he LOVES it here, then you didn't watch the postseason I watched. Do you want me to find the articles about how he finally felt comfortable with a manager who speaks his language, how he was reunited with his family while in Chicago, etc? I know baseball is a business, but I'd be shocked if Jose left of his own free will. My second point - that great pitchers are much more reliable in the postseason than great hitters - I think is borne out again and again. Contreras was a horse for us in the postseason - never giving up more than 3 runs in 4 starts, and taking us deep into all 4 of his games. Tejada, A-Rod, Barry Bonds earlier in his career, Frank and Maggs in 2000 - I'm sure I could find a lot of great hitters who went ice cold in October. So a trade of Contreras for Tejada, even straight up, would weaken us in October in my opinion. Pitching wins championships. Look how the Yankees have struggled since their pitching went south. As for stats - what part of Tejada's postseason line do you like? The guy never draws a walk. Juan drew 5 walks in the ALCS and WS, even though we all know that Juan is a free swinger. I'm not suggesting Juan is a better hitter than Tejada - if you read my post I said the opposite. I'm suggesting that it is probably not a good trade for the Sox to surrender one of their ace starters and Juan Uribe for Miguel Tejada if you are trying to build a team to win the World Series again. Over the course of a regular season, Tejada's runs created value would make the trade fair. But in the postseason, give me the great starter and the clutch-hitting great defensive shortstop.

It is worth checking out Tejada's postseason stats. He's been on a precipitous decline in production since his first postseason appearance in 2000. 2000 ALDS OAK NYY L 5 20 5 7 2 0 0 1 2 2 .350 .409 .450 1 0 0 0 0 2001 ALDS OAK NYY L 5 21 1 6 3 0 0 1 0 3 .286 .304 .429 0 0 0 1 1 2002 ALDS OAK MIN L 5 21 3 3 1 0 1 4 1 7 .143 .174 .333 0 0 0 1 0 2003 ALDS OAK BOS L 5 23 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 4 .087 .087 .130 0 0 0 0 0 Here are the cumulative totals. 4 Lg Div Series 0-4 20 85 9 18 7 0 1 8 3 16 .212 .242 .329 1 0 0 2 1 Meanwhile, Juan Uribe did very well in his one postseason. 2005 ALDS CHW BOS W 3 10 4 4 1 0 1 4 0 2 .400 .400 .800 0 0 ALCS CHW LAA W 5 16 1 4 1 0 0 0 2 3 .250 .333 .312 0 0 WS CHW HOU W 4 16 2 4 3 0 0 2 3 3 .250 .368 .438 1 0 And we all know how well Jose Contreras pitched for us. 2005 ALDS CHW BOS W 1 1 2.35 1-0 0 0 7.7 8 2 0 6 ALCS CHW LAA W 2 2 3.12 1-1 0 1 17.3 12 6 2 6 WS CHW HOU W 1 1 3.86 1-0 0 0 0 7.0 6 3 0 2 So here is how I feel about all the Tejada trade talk. I would agree that Tejada is a much better overall shortstop than Juan Uribe. Historically, his offense has been worth about 40 more runs a season than Uribe's. But if Baltimore were demanding Contreras, would this really be a good deal for the Sox? Perhaps, but ONLY if Contreras refused to re-sign with us, which I don't think he will do (he LOVES it here). In the postseason, there's no doubt in my mind that having Contreras and Uribe is much more valuable than having Tejada. After all, Uribe hit better in the 2005 postseason than Tejada has in 3 of his 4 postseason appearances. And there are a lot of other good hitters that have gone south in October. Compared to pitchers, they are not a reliable commodity in the postseason. That being said, I doubt the Orioles would really want Jose Contreras at his age, even if he were signed to an extension. They are more likely to want a young pitcher like McCarthy, plus Uribe, plus prospects. The problem with that deal as many have pointed out is that it saps the Sox of our pitching depth, which is very risky. And it adds significantly to the Sox' payroll. We don't really need Tejada's additional offense to recapture the AL Central. And he's not a proven postseason commodity, unlike any starter (except Vazquez) that we currently have. So my opinion is that this is a trade, like those discussed for AJ Burnett and Ken Griffey last year, that will be better for the Sox if it doesn't happen.

Thanks, Beck72 and others. It is nice to see some people on Soxtalk don't really care for all the pointless personal bashing that seems to have taken over this site. It wasn't here when I first joined, and it has grown rather tiresome. But let me return to the subject. First, I think Jose Contreras is a vastly superior pitcher to Javier Vazquez, and I think he will remain a superior pitcher for the rest of Contreras's career, even if Vazquez can somehow find some of his Montreal form. Second, I believe KW understands that Contreras is a superior pitcher, and therefore will make every effort to extend Contreras's contract beyond the end of 2006. I think the main issue is length more than money at the moment, with the Sox not liking to tie up pitchers longer than 3 years, and Contreras wanting 3 MORE years for a total of 4. I expect they'll end up finding some middle ground where both sides can be happy. Remember, as far as budget goes, any extension for Jose goes on 2007's ledger, and won't have a whit of impact on this year's. Third, I'm sure KW isn't planning on trading Vazquez at the deadline, and if the Sox don't have any major holes to fill then, he won't be traded. My point has been threefold: 1. Vazquez will likely have more trade value in the middle of 2006 than he has now. 2. If we decide to trade pitching mid-season to fill major holes, Vazquez, who will still probably be the weakest starter at that point, is the logical first choice. Unless he makes a DRAMATIC turnaround, would any of you start him ahead of Contreras, Buehrle, Garcia, or Garland in a playoff game???? 3. We cannot get real value by trading Contreras at this point because he has only one year left on his contract. It makes much more sense to re-sign Jose. After all, he is still our best starter, as he proved once he found his true pitching groove in the middle of last year. If we're facing down the Yankees in the postseason, wouldn't you want him on the mound ahead of anyone else we have?

For those who cared to read the post, I said prospects could be part of a mid-season trade of Vazquez, but they certainly don't have to be the main ingredient. (I mentioned Bobby Abreu first, didn't I?) The Sox could well be in a position to get just about anything they want or need at that point, depending on how well Vazquez responds to Coop's tutelage. Anyone else dumping a major starting pitcher mid-season will likely be offering only a rent-a-player like AJ Burnett. Vazquez will still be tied up for 2-1/2 years in mid-2006.

I believe the Count and the Sox will come to an agreement on an extension. Right now all you see is posturing. Once the posturing is over, Jose will accept that he's very happy with Ozzie as his manager and Coop as his pitching coach, and will sign a reasonable deal. It will be for more than Garland got, because there won't be an arbitration-year discount. But it will be very reasonable compared to Burnett's, Millwood's, and Washburn's deals. I also believe that KW will listen to offers, but that he won't trade any of our big-6 starters before the season starts. He's right when he says that McCarthy needs to fill out more, and that it wouldn't hurt to phase him in. Going straight to a full season as 5th starter might land him and his skinny frame on the DL. He's also right to believe that having starting pitching depth may be the best antidote to the Yankees lineup now that it's pretty clear the Yankees are our main rivals for the AL pennant. As I posted elsewhere, if we are going to trade a starter, the starter to trade may be Vazquez, and the time to trade him would not be now when he's coming off a mediocre year in Arizona, but at the trade deadline, after he regains some of his former Montreal form under Coop's tutelage. The Count proved very capable as a #1 starter in the playoffs. He's still the guy I would most trust in that role, especially if we were facing the Yankees. I think KW has every intention of re-signing him and keeping him. It is the wise choice.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Dec 30, 2005 -> 03:32 AM) Maybe the trend of staying put at the deadline and making a run with what you have is the new thing to do. That might be the best thing to do in 2006 for the Sox too. My point is this. Sign Contreras because he's the best starting pitcher we have and one of the best in baseball. Then go into the season with all of the starters we have because it will give us unmatched strength vis-a-vis the rest of the AL. If, at some point, we need to shore up another part of the team, and we can afford to deal from strength, that will be a better time to make the deal than right now, especially since Vazquez is probably undervalued coming off his poor showing in NY and mediocre season in Arizona. But, we may also need all of those starters if any of them go down to injury. Look what happened to the Yankees staff last year.