VAfan

Sheets is a much better hitter against right handed pitching right now than Andrew Vaughn. That's not manipulation; that's just common sense. Vaughn, meanwhile, crushes lefties. They are a natural platoon. Sure, you want to find some ABs for Vaughn against righties, but it shouldn't come by benching Sheets, who was the Sox' second best hitter last year against right handers. Yes, even better than Luis Robert.

James Fegan of the Athletic likely put this best when he said it raises the floor for the White Sox at 2B, even if it doesn't raise the ceiling. Since Leury Garcia is going to get used all over the place by Tony LaRussa, having someone you can plug and play at 2B who hits better than Romy Gonzalez or Danny Mendick definitely improves the team. And Harrison isn't always bad. He was above league average last year with the Nats, and higher than Garcia. Plus, he can be a LIDP for Jimenez in left field, or for Sheets/Vaughn in RF. Of course Engel is better, but Engel may not always be available. As the 9th place hitter, what do you really want? Would Nick Madrigal be better and cheaper? Sure. Would he stay healthier? Maybe, maybe not. But that ship has sailed. Plus, even if the Sox find a better 2B, Harrison is a lot like Garcia being able to play multiple positions. Leury also covers SS and CF, so he's better. But having a guy like that has value because you still have flexibility if one of them is out. Harrison to me is not someone to get excited about, but he still strengthens the team.

What's crazy is that Robert is likely to keep improving, so who knows what kind of numbers he's going to post. What if they enlarge the bags? How many bases will he steal, even if maybe he shouldn't to save wear and tear? And he's not even near the top guy that people talk about when they talk about the White Sox. Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Lucas Giolito, even Lance Lynn get more hype than Robert. He's like our "secret" weapon. I think that's going to start to change this year. He may still have the language barrier that prevents him from getting a lot of interviews, but commentators are going to be clued in.

Robert hit 2nd more than any other position in the lineup last year. Moncada hit 3rd more than any other spot. But Moncada hit best slotted 5th or 6th. If you go that route, the top of the lineup becomes very right handed. And the bottom has all the lefties or switch hitters. I believe Tony will try Anderson, Moncada, Robert, Abreu, Grandal, Jimenez, Sheets/Vaughn, Engel, Garcia/Harrison, and if it works, he might stay with that more often than not. But having Tony LaRussa stick with a single lineup is not going to happen. Not in his nature. The real point is that Robert is almost certainly going to hit at the top of the lineup because he's clearly the best player on the team.

Enough about RF, bullpen, starting pitching depth, backup catcher, etc.... Let's talk about Luis Robert. Here's how the Sox' center fielder's second half numbers stacked up against the field if he had been able to do that for a season. Batting average - .350. 1st OBP - .389 6th SLG - .622 1st OPS - 1.011 2nd OPS+ - 170 3rd If he posts this for a season, he's going to be the 2022 AL MVP.

Right field for the White Sox. It's the topic that never stops being talked about. Conforto, Castellanos, Suzuki ... add one of them, please, exhort many on Soxtalk. I've been of the view since the offseason that the Sox should give the ABs to their young players instead. In 2020, RF was Nomar Mazara and Adam Engel. Engel was the better player, but Mazara got most of the ABs. In 2021, it was Eaton for 55 games (76 OPS+), Goodwin for 43 games (90 OPS+), Garcia 34 games (96 OPS+), Vaughn 18 games (92 OPS+), Sheets 13 games (123 OPS+), Engel 10 games (124 OPS+), Lamb 9 games (94 OPS+), Mendick 8 games (64 OPS+), Romy Gonzalez 3 games (64 OPS+), Bill Hamilton 2 games (67 OPS+). In 2022, if RF is manned by Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, Leury Garcia, and Josh Harrison. - Engel is clearly the best fielder of the group. He's also put up very good hitting numbers the last two years, albeit in limited ABs because of injuries. - Vaughn played 120 games in the outfield last year, so he showed durability. He just ran out of gas at the end of the year. - Sheets is the lefty power bat the Sox have craved, and was the best hitter of this group. He should get most of his ABs at DH, but the Sox have a lot of other players they can rotate through DH, so Sheets will need to play 1B and the OF to stay in the lineup against all righties. - Garcia will get used by LaRussa a lot, so expect him to play a fair amount in RF. - Harrison will be the primary 2B, but also plays RF and LF and 3B, so expect him to get some time out there as well. As hitters, all 5 of these guys produced better than most of the guys the Sox played in RF the last two years -- Mazara in 2021, and Eaton, Goodwin, Lamb, and Mendick in 2022. Granted, Vaughn and Sheets are not the best defenders, but this is where having Engel, Garcia and Harrison help, because they can not only cover late in games in RF, but also in LF for Jimenez. This group is also dirt cheap, with Sheets and Vaughn both pre-Arb players, and Engel making just over $2M. If the Sox need to save money somewhere, this is the place. The Sox may not have the best RFs in baseball, but it's clearly a stronger offensive group than it was the last two years.

Do you know how teams often have their A relievers and their B relievers? The A guys are used in close games with leads, and the B guys get used when we're getting shelled and aren't likely to rally, or when we have big leads. If you tried to divide the current White Sox pen, who would be an A, and who would be a B? There aren't many Bs on this squad.

You have to get over the "draft pedigree" argument, and go with who is producing. Vaughn hit righties terribly last year, but crushed lefties. He's a perfect platoon partner with Sheets for the moment. I would agree that Vaughn should also get some ABs against right handers to allow him to develop and improve. That's one reason I've been against the Sox signing a RF who will just block ABs for Sheets/Vaughn. The last thing I'll say here is that the Sox absolutely need to give time to the productive CHEAP players on their roster. People complain about giving Harrison and Garcia semi-expensive contracts to play 2B and utility roles, but are ready to trade away cost-controlled highly productive players like Sheets and Vaughn, and even Engel for that matter. Check out the Tampa Bay model. They make use of young, cost controlled guys and win. The young guys are also trying to make a name for themselves, are highly energized, and great additions to the team. I believe Gavin Sheets is already a stud and is only going to get better. He damn well better do so with the Sox.

My guess is that they'll start the season with 14 pitchers, whether or not MLB decides to temporarily expand rosters to start the year. Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech, Lopez, Hendrix, Bummer, Crochet, Kelly, Graveman, Rios, Velasquez, Kimbrel. Trading Kimbrel would actually leave their pen a bit light and force the Sox to use the kind of RPs who didn't pitch very well last year. Velasquez is a head scratcher for me given his track record. They must believe they can fix him.

Sheets was a 143 wRC+ hitter against right handers. The Sox have only one player who hits right handers better - Grandal. He hit one of our few postseason HRs. He is just coming into his own. I saw a stat showing his numbers the first time against a pitcher, and the second, and it was a massive leap. This tells me he's making the adjustments and will only get better. He should play ALL THE TIME against right handers, whether that's DH, RF, 1B, or LF.

Very good catch. I'll admit I was optimistic last year about the pen, but I was obviously wrong, as I've said above. (And I wasn't the only one who liked last year's pen.) Heuer, Marshall, and Foster were all much worse. The difference this time is that Graveman and Kelly are higher quality replacements. More like Tepera, who was a good addition last year. The wild card is Kimbrel, but while he's unlikely to be as good as he was for the Cubs in 2021, he's very likely to be better than he was for the Sox last year. What do you think? Is the bullpen better this year, or not?

I agree. I hoped otherwise, but by not tendering him, they showed their hand. I'll still think it's a mistake, but the Sox know better than anyone the condition of Rodon's arm, and if they felt he was too much of an injury risk, then I'll have to accept it. I think they've fixed the bullpen, but they are going to need to find another viable starter, preferably a lefty AND still hope Keuchel bounces back enough to be serviceable. Because Kopech can't carry enough innings to be a full-time starter and they only have Lopez in reserve. There isn't much depth in the minors.

The "big move" I would have made would have been to re-sign Carlos Rodon. The reason the Sox failed against Houston was their starting pitching was fried at the end of the year, plus Jimenez was not himself offensively. If we had a healthy and rested starting staff headed by Rodon, and the offense we can produce with Luis Robert and Jimenez in prime form, I would take us over just about any team in baseball. Without Rodon, we're going to need Kopech to be a top-3 postseason starter, and that's going to be hard this year. Either that, or our new bullpen needs to be lights out.

Harrison had a very good 2021 for the Nats. Better than Leury Garcia by a lot. (120 OPS+ v. 96 OPS+). Harrison had a bad last two months in Oakland, however, but still finished better than Garcia on the year. What Harrison provides is a veteran with positional flexibility so the Sox don't have to carry Danny Mendick for 71 games and 186 ABs. Between Garcia and Harrison they can cover 2B, and back up SS, 3B, LF, RF, CF.

Let's look at the 2022 Sox bullpen and compare it to the 2021 bullpen. 2021 IP K% BB% ERA 2022 w 21 stats IP K% BB% Era Liam Hendricks 71 42.30% 2.60% 2.54 Liam Hendricks 71 Aaron Bummer 56.1 31% 12% 3.51 Aaron Bummer 56 Garrett Crochet 54.1 28.30% 11.70% 2.82 Garrett Crochet 54 Cody Heuer 28.2 23.50% 6% 5.12 Kendall Graveman 56 27.50% 9% 1.77 Ryan Tepera 18 32% 9.30% 2.5 Joe Kelly 44 27.50% 8.20% 2.86 Craig Kimbrel 23 36.70% 10.20% 5.09 Craig Kimbrel (total) 59 42.60% 9.80% 2.26 Jose Ruiz 65 23.20% 9.20% 3.05 Jose Ruiz 65 Evan Marshall 27.1 23% 8% 5.6 Reynaldo Lopez 55 Michael Kopech 55.1 36.10% 8.40% 3.9 Ryan Burr 36 Reynaldo Lopez 20.1 24.80% 5.90% 2.21 496 Mike Wright 18 13.60% 13.60% 5.5 Matt Foster 39 23% 7.50% 6 Ryan Burr 36.2 21.90% 13.90% 2.45 510.9 What do you notice? If you keep Craig Kimbrel, which I believe the Sox will do, then you've swapped out Cody Heuer, Evan Marshall, Matt Foster, Mike Wright, and Ryan Tepera for Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly, and you've added Reynaldo Lopez for a whole year instead of just the end of the year. That strikes me as a major upgrade. The only good reliever the Sox have lost is Ryan Tepera, but they've dropped 113 innings of relievers who all had ERAs above 5 runs per game, for 2 pitchers who put up 100 innings, one of whom had an ERA of 1.77 and the other 2.86. Last year we thought the bullpen would be good, but Heuer, Marshall, and Foster all pitched much worse than they had in 2020, and we needed to bring up Mike Wright to eat innings. This year, we've added much more experienced pitchers to replace those guys. Sure, there is some year-to-year fluctuation, but this looks like a much better bullpen even after moving Michael Kopech into the rotation.

I still don't understand why people think the Sox are going to get a "big bat" for RF. Especially one they think is going to "stabilize the middle of the order." Here's the Sox lineup, no matter who they sign. 1. Anderson 2. Moncada 3. Robert 4. Abreu 5, Grandal 6. Jimenez No one left on the market is going to move any of those guys off their spots. After the top 6, the Sox currently have 7. Sheets/Vaughn DH/RF/1B platoon. Against righties, Sheets had a 143 wRC+, and against lefties, Vaughn had a 156 wRC+. Who the hell on the market did better than that? Certainly not Conforto (106 wRC+), Castellanos (140 wRC+), or Kris Bryant (123 wRC+). 8. Engel/Vaughn/Sheets. Since the Sox will rotate other guys into the DH slot -- Grandal, Abreu, and Jimenez - they need somewhere to put Sheets/Vaughn when someone else is DHing. RF is one of those places. (1B and LF is another). If you sign a RF, you are going to stunt the development of Vaughn especially, because he needs time to hit right handers better, and he's not going to supplant Sheets against righties, and he's certainly not going to displace Abreu or Jimenez on a regular basis at 1B or LF. Meanwhile, Engel, in limited ABs, has put up a wRC+ of 121 in 2020, and 127 in 2021. Plus, he's by far the best defender of anyone being discussed. If he could stay healthy, I think we all might be shocked how good of a hitter Adam Engel has become. (Think of the improvement James McCann made. Engel reminds me of McCann.) So, I've been arguing all offseason against doing much in RF. I think the Sox need to develop the young guys they have and use the money they would spend on a RF FA on starting pitching. That's why I wanted Rodon back. But since that ship has sailed, spend the money to extend Lucas Giolito. Look at Tampa Bay. They win because they develop their own guys, focus on developing a deep pitching staff, and trade established guys about to hit it big for more young guys they can develop. The Sox will not have "failed" if they don't sign a big name RF. They have 3 hitters between DH and RF who have put up wRC+ numbers better than almost all of those guys, and who are all on dirt-cheap contracts. P.S. The other reason not to sign the "big bat" for RF is they would likely want a multi-year deal. But as someone above reminded me, the future in RF for the Sox is likely Oscar Colas or Yoenis Cespedes. Neither will likely be ready this year, but they might be by next year.

What was the big move at 2B? There isn't much on the market, and to trade for an impact 2B would have weakened the Sox elsewhere. The only big move I could see would have been to put Moncada back at 2B to make room for a strong hitting FA 3B. No one seemed to pick up on that, however. And it's true that Moncada is a better 3B than he ever was at 2B. We need Moncada's 2019 bat to return, so moving him likely also wouldn't have helped that chance. You don't need studs at every position to win a WS. Whomever we had at 2B is likely going to be our 9th place hitter. All we need is someone who's league average, and Josh Harrison has been that the last 2 years.

Let me be one of the only ones on this thread to say that even with this signing, I think the Sox will not trade Kimbrel for now. Why not? 1. His value is too low. Any trade would be mostly a salary dump, not netting the Sox much of anything in return. 2. The Sox signed their 2B, so Kimbrel isn't going in a package for a new 2B. 3. Kimbrel wouldn't net a better RF than what we already have. 4. Kimbrel also wouldn't net starting pitcher depth of any quality. Conclusion? Kimbrel has the biggest upside of anything you could swap him for, so to trade him might save money, but it would make the team worse.

Except that he did in 2021.

It's amazing how much consternation will be exercised on this site over someone who will be our 9th place hitter. Not to mention that Harrison had a better year with the Nats last season than Madrigal had with the Sox. Nick's BA was slightly higher, and his K rate lower, but Harrison had better OBP, SLG, and wRC+ totals than Nick. As someone wrote above, Madrigal had some cache as "Nicky 2-strikes", but his offensive numbers were not eye-popping, he was a poor baserunner, and he kept getting injured. Seems like the Sox have largely replaced him. Of course, that assumes we get the good version of Josh Harrison. If we get the Detroit or Oakland version, then we have Cesar Hernandez all over again. In which case Leury Garcia will end up spending the bulk of his playing time at 2B. This strikes me as a neutral deal. They only spent money, not prospects in trade. And if they get the good version of Harrison, they have covered themselves at 2B.

Hernandez hit 21 HRs, mostly for Cleveland, yet had a lower slugging percentage and wRC+ than Harrison last year, even with Harrison's bad drop off in Oakland. Put another way, Harrison was better for Oakland than Hernandez was for the Sox. What's kind of interesting is that Harrison was great for the Nats last year, and now they have Hernandez.

Sheets was among the Sox' best hitters against right handed pitching last year, as measured by wRC+. His wRC+ of 125 overall (against righties and lefties) was 5th best on the team, and essentially tied with Abreu (126 wRC+) and Engel (127 wRC+). Only Robert and Grandal blew that away. But even Robert didn't hit right handers better. Grandal did. So, you think the Sox should send down to AAA their second best hitter against right handed pitching?

A platoon in RF continues to make sense. If you add a guy like Conforto, who gets benched? First off, Conforto had a bad year in 2021. He did not hit righties better than Gavin Sheets. And he did not hit lefties better than Andrew Vaughn. Sheets had a .900 OPS and a 143 wRC+ against right handed pitchers last year. All 11 of his HRs were against righties. And he's just starting to figure it out. Michael Conforto, by contrast, had a .793 OPS and 119 wRC+ against righties last year. Meanwihile, Vaughn kills lefties to the tune of a .938 OPS and a 156 wRC+. Conforto in 2021? .701 OPS and 91 wRC+. Based on that, a Sheets/Vaughn platoon had a much better offensive year in 2021 than Michael Conforto. Then you have Adam Engel, who is by far the best fielder among Sheets, Vaughn, and Conforto. Oddly enough, he had reverse splits last year, hitting right handers extremely well -- .938 OPS and 154 wRC+. Lefties actually befuddled Engel last year. But he was also hurt a lot and had only 140 PAs. In 2020, he hit both righties and lefties well. Now, presumably Sheets and Vaughn are going to spend a lot of time DHing, but the Sox have so many other players to rotate into that spot -- Grandal, Abreu, and Jimenez, that for them to get playing time, they need to spend some time in the outfield. 1B will not always be open as a backup, as Grandal plays there as well. So, if you sign Conforto, it just seems like you have stunted the development of some very cheap players who may actually be more productive with the bat than him. Not to mention that if you sign him for multiple years, will you then block the development of Oscar Colas and Yoenis Cespedes? Better to spend the money elsewhere. (Like on Carlos Rodon.)

There have been many many posts suggesting the Sox make trades. I don't think any of them make sense. We saw last year what a major trade looks like -- Madrigal and Heuer for Kimbrel. Regardless of what you think about the trade, the fact is that the Sox created a hole in their team in a go-for-it move that didn't work out. Now filling the 2B hole created by trading Madrigal is near the top of everyone's wish list, and there aren't any great options out there. If the Sox want to trade for a starting pitcher of any quality, they would have to create other holes in our current roster. This is because the Sox' farm system is very thin. Which is also because the recent stars of their farm system are on the major league club. The Sox could continue to make the kind of mid-season move that brought Ryan Tapera last year. But that's about it. I guess you could trade Kimbrel to try to fill 2B, but even that creates a hole in the bullpen that would need to be filled.

I'm totally bummed by the Sox losing Rodon. I've argued all offseason he should be their #1 priority. I think the arm issues last year were fatigue, not anything structural. He should bounce back with a vengeance this year. For a good stretch last season, he was the best pitcher in the AL. Jayson Stark gave him the Cy Young at the All-Star break. He's irreplaceable. There is no one of his quality in the Sox system -- I'd rank Rodon as our best starter last year -- especially no one from the left side. I think Rodon will be a top-5 pitcher in baseball over the next 5 years.