VAfan

QUOTE(qwerty @ Jun 29, 2005 -> 04:01 AM) Hm, why do i care about the payroll? Well if we start trading for guys that are in their late thirties with 3 years on their contract we have a problem. Omar vizquel is not putting this team, the chicago white sox, over the top. The sox would not think of trading for vizquel is 345 and two thirds of a years because right when he was offered the third year by the giants we waived good bye to him. The third year was the deal breaker. Do you think vizquel would come in and lead-off or bat third? He would end up at the bottom of the line-up just like uribe. Uribe is just as good as vizquel is defensively if not better. It is not worth the prospects it takes to get him along with the two years 6+ million left on his contract. The reason i asked if your gonna pay for his salary is because the white sox won't be. I've advocated a trade for Schmidt and Vizquel with the Sox giving up Contreras, Uribe, Anderson, Gload, and a lower prospect (or their choice of Takatsu/Vizcaino). (The Giants might take this because they want major league ready guys.) That wouldn't cost us more than a couple million more than we are paying Contreras/Uribe, but would be a definite improvement in our postseason chances. Vizquel is a .357 OBP guy. Uribe is at .276. That's like having a .300 hitter v. a .220 hitter in the lineup. The .357 guy makes a lot fewer outs. Given our offense, that would help a lot at the bottom of the order. Plus Vizquel is a switch hitter for a lineup bereft of lefties, has more speed than Uribe, and is basically his equal defensively. Both are signed for 3 years. I'm willing to give up Anderson, Gload, and a bullpen pitcher to make the deal, because none of those guys are going to make a major impact this year or next. (I can't see us going into 2006 with Ross Gload as our starting 1B.)

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Jun 29, 2005 -> 03:45 AM) Umm... what exactly is the problem with Uribe? I realize he's been bad this season, but you're not gonna find many SS's who are better defensively than Uribe. Plus, Morse might eventually have to move to 3B. I'd take Uribe over Morse every day of the week, I don't know exactly what you're getting at there. I believe he makes something between $3-5 million bucks (through his extension) in the next couple of years, he's one of the last ones this team who's hurting us. And, for those who suggested Jamie Moyer? Uhh -- no. A .276 OBP (and .657 OPS) is what is wrong with Juan Uribe. That puts him down there with Christian Guzman. Uribe has had one good hitting year in his career, last year. Every other year his OBP is below .300, even when he was in Colorado. He is worse than Joe Crede, frankly. As I argued above, if we trade for Schmidt, then we should also swap Uribe for Omar Vizquel, who gets on at a .357 clip, has more speed, is a switch hitter, and whose defense is as good as Uribe's. Plus Omar has playoff and World Series experience. He's a better #2 hitter when Iguchi is rested, and a better #1 when Pods is rested. Otherwise, he would look very good at the bottom of the lineup starting or continuing rallies. If SF will take Contreras and Uribe for Schmidt and Vizquel, we would have slotted two better players without messing up our salary structure. For that, I'd be fine giving up Brian Anderson, Ross Gload, and a lower prospect (or maybe their choice of Takatsu or Vizquel). Anderson and Gload would both fit the Giants' needs as they are major league ready, but both are blocked here, especially if KW wants to re-sign Konerko.

I'm going to reply to myself to make clearer the trade I'm suggesting: Sox get: Jason Schmidt (2006 option) and Omar Vizquel (through 2007). Giants get: Jose Contreras (signed through 2006), Juan Uribe (through 2007), plus Brian Anderson and Brandon McCarthy, or Contreras, Uribe, their choice of Anderson or McCarthy, plus Ross Gload and Joe Borchard. Now this deal makes some sense for both sides. Giants still get a servicable starting pitcher, a cheap replacement for JT Snow (if they take option #2), a starting SS, and one of the Sox two best prospects. For the Sox, it doesn't blow up their salary structure. The only problem is that it weakens their 5th starter position if El Duque can't finish the season. But I think that role is pretty insignificant if our front 4 is Buerhle, Garcia, Schmidt, and Garland. And it is not even certain that the Giants would take BMac in the deal. (If we have to sweeten the deal, I'd be willing to surrender Bajenaru if they took Anderson instead of McCarthy.)

As I've argued above, I have a hard time seeing a move for Schmidt or AJ Burnett, or any starter that's going to cost $10 million next year unless we move Contreras or at least El Duque. But if we are going to get Schmidt from the Giants - and if KW wants him, he'll get him - then I say we get Vizquel as well. Uribe is really the weakest link in our lineup, not Joe Crede, and his defense isn't better than Vizquel's. Would the Giants take Contreras and Uribe if they also got BMac and Anderson, or BMac or Anderson and 2 other second-tier guys? (Please, no Alfonzo.)

QUOTE(southsideirish @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 08:15 PM) There is no reason why they would not be willing to increase the payroll if we go to the playoffs. Each round we get through means more money for them. Plus the year after a great year is usually when you see the most money coming in. There should be no reason not to increase the payroll by at least 10 million if they make it far into the playoffs. Another big time starter such as Jason Schmidt to go along with Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia improves our chances of going further than just the 1st round. Money should really not be brought into this equation. I'm not talking about money this year. I do think they will stretch the payroll a bit because attendance is up, and they can already envision at least a few postseason games. I'm talking about next year, and I don't see an extra $10 million for payroll going to a 6th starter when we're already on the hook for something approaching $40 million for the first 5 guys. If someone will take Contreras and it is still a good deal, then I can see it. But I don't see us willing to eat any contracts next year. Not even El Duque's $4 million one.

Of course the solution to our 4th playoff starter problem is: El Contreduque Any chance we could just split every 4th game between them?? The trouble would be figuring out which one to have start the game!

QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 07:38 PM) Well we have a possible 4th starter in Conteras who s***s himself everytime he sniffs Fenway. or We have another guy who had a 5.40 ERA in the playoffs last year. He was hitting 88-90 on the gun. This year he is hitting 84-85 and has been on the DL now twice. I keep forgetting where starts in the playoffs are throw aways because they only happen a few times. The playoffs are not throwaways, but you have to consider the marginal value of mortgaging the farm for pitchers - like AJ Burnett or Jason Schmidt - who we cannot possibly fit in our salary structure next year unless some team will take Contreras or El Duque off our hands. Would you give AJ Burnett the money we would need to sign Paul Konerko and Frank Thomas next year? The guy has only twice pitched 150 innings or more. And Jason Schmidt is a power pitcher coming off an injury that sapped his velocity. I want to win the WS as much as anyone, but I also want us to win the AL Central more often than once every 5 years.

Let's be realistic here. I'm all for making a trade to win the World Series. But is AJ Burnett or Jason Schmidt going to be the guy? In a 5-game opening series we already have Buehrle, Garcia and Garland 1-3. If we are pressed into game 4, we then have either Contreras or El Duque. Contreras's "stuff" is as good as any pitcher we are talking about trading for, but he seems to be a head case, is easy to steal on, and can be prone to give up the long ball. El Duque, on the other hand, seems to rely entirely on guile, but if completely healthy would likely be a lot better than his opponent. If the first 4 games are split, then we have Buehrle again for game 5, unless we've added Roger Clemens to our team. So why mortgage the future for 1 ALDS start? The other cost of Burnett is that he's a free agent looking for a big contract. (Another reason not to give up the farm for a guy we could have for "free" next year.) But we are already on the hook for millions for Buehrle, Garcia, and Contreras next year, plus $4 million for El Duque and a big raise for Jon Garland. Given the Sox are a zero-sum outfit, if we spend a lot more for a new starter, someone else is going to have to go. Frank Thomas? Paul Konerko? AJ Pierzynski? Schmidt poses the same dilemma with his $10 million option. Now if another team would take Contreras's $8 million salary for next year off our hands, then we might be able to slot a Burnett or Schmidt into that hole. But who would do that? We aren't going to spend $40-50 million of a $70 million payroll on 5 starting pitchers, are we? I'm not sure the answer to this, but unless management is planning on increasing the payroll next year by at least $10 million (which is what it will cost for this new starting pitcher everyone is drooling over), this all strikes me as a fantasy exercise. I certainly don't want to surrender our top prospects on a 3-month rental. (Though Roger Clemens has tempted me.) The only reason the Garcia trade has worked for us (we could sure use Mike Morse at SS instead of Uribe, couldn't we?) is we signed Garcia for 3 years. To keep the Sox winning AL Central divisions and making the postseason we need to be smart. Brandon McCarthy is the only pitcher in our system who could possibly hold down the #5 hole for a bargain price. I would think hard before trading him. In the outfield, we're stuck with Jermaine Dye through 2006, but after that we need a home grown guy to take his place. SS is another position we could use talent from within. The point is that all of you drooling over the latest guy on the trade block need to see the bigger picture and evaluate whether it will force us to blow up the team next year. I suppose if I could be guaranteed a WS victory, maybe I could die and be happy and not care. But few trade acquisitions are going to guarantee that. You know, what really hamstrings us here is the Contreras trade and to a lesser extent the El Duque signing. Because we're on the hook for $12 million for the two of them this year and next, we really can't make a move to improve our starters without trying to unload one or both of them. But who would take either of them? Face it, we may be stuck trying to make the best with our Cuban starters, but I don't see that as all bad. Contreras really can have great outings. And El Duque, if he can be used sparingly until October, might turn in a gem or two. I guess, all in all, I'm on the fence.

I wonder what we would do with Contreras and/or El Duque if we did acquire a 4th ace in a trade. Neither fit in the bullpen. I can't imagine us just eating their contracts. Any chance any team would take Contreras and the same $3 million the Yankees gave us as part of the trade? This wouldn't solve the #5 hole, but it might keep the balance sheet in better shape for next year.

QUOTE(ISF @ Jun 27, 2005 -> 05:34 PM) If McCarthy is up with the big club, then he needs to start every fifth day. Period. Otherwise get somebody who can take the 5th starter's spot and send him down. McCarthy gains nothing from sitting on the bench most of July, except for the occasional spot start. I think Bmac may benefit a lot from riding with the club in July and getting the spot start. It strikes me his issue isn't physical but mental, but he needed a bit of a physical breather to get his pitching head back in the game. I expect a solid effort against Detroit, and I hope Ozzie doesn't baby him like he did against the Cubs.

What about Andy Pettitte? With his contract, the Astros can't demand much for him; it would enough for someone else to take him off their hands. Plus he has the postseason resume that could help us a lot, and he balances our top 4 guys, slotting perfectly between Garcia and Garland. He seems like a much better choice than a mediocre pitcher like Ted Lilly. Maybe the Astros would take Jose Contreras for him straight up? At least they'd be getting a healthy pitcher. Should Pettitte's health problems concern me?

QUOTE(AirScott @ Jun 27, 2005 -> 12:53 AM) VAfan, did you happen to catch any of last year's playoffs? Lidge would come in and nail the game down in the 7th inning. he's given up a few more runs and hits than he normally would, but he's struck out 52 in 33 innings. put him on a winning team (as he was last year), and he won't let you down. It is a fair criticism, as I don't watch any NL games, and didn't see the Astros playoff games last year. Earlier, I also looked at Billy Wagner in the same light and found the same kind of performances this year. I'm not averse to adding bullpen help, but it has to be a quality guy at a reasonable price, and for the bullpen that means no top prospects. But why are the Astros going to trade Lidge? He's not a free agent is he?

They should give El Duque all of July off in my opinion. Then give him a rehab start and bring him back in mid-August for 8 or 9 starts through the end of the regular season. Last I looked, with the off days the 5th started was needed only 3 games in July, and I'd happily give those to McCarthy to see if he could come close to his first outing in Wrigley. Heck, if McCarthy can pitch .500 ball in the 5 hole, I'd rest El Duque until September.

As much as I am loving it this year and want the 2005 Sox to go on an win the World Series, I think Kenny should be thinking longer term, about building a club that, like the Indians in the second half of the 90's and the Twins recently, can make the postseason year after year. That's why I wonder about trading BMac, Anderson, etc. for a rent-a-player. Now I've supported renting Roger Clemens and been accused of being inconsistent. But I guess I'm willing to make a rental if I believe that person is the absolute key to winning it all. Short of that, I would hope our trading would be more prudent and not sacrifice the future for the present. We have 3 great starters that we can afford to sign for the next 5 years - Buehrle, Garcia, and Garland. If we develop BMac, he could be a very high quality but cheap 4th guy. We then need to find a 5th guy. I think it could be Neal Cotts. I would let Contreras and El Duque walk when their contracts are up. On the offensive side, a decision will have to be made about Konerko and Thomas. Hopefully we will keep AJ for a couple more years. Dye will be gone after next year. We need to plug in some young blood so that we can afford to spend a lot on pitching, which we have seen is the real key to staying on top.

In the 7th inning today, after Jerome Williams walked Harris to lead off, I thought both Frank Thomas and Konerko tried too hard to tie the ballgame instead of just getting on and increasing the pressure. Both popped up. AJ also didn't hit well after Dye was plunked the next inning. And then Everett hit into a DP and prevented Frank from having a second chance. Don't forget what got us to 50-24 guys.

QUOTE(Frank the Tank 35 @ Jun 25, 2005 -> 06:43 PM) Julio Lugo may be just as good for this year and even better in subsequent years. He may not have the postseason experience like Omar but has better numbers this year and almost certainly will next year as Omar's age catches up to him. Lugo is 29 and a 5 year veteran. It appears as if he's finally stopped swinging for the fences and realizes the type of player he is. I looked up Lugo. What worries me is the number of errors he makes. 25 last year. Reminiscent of Valentin. 13 this year v. Uribe's 8. He's worth considering, but I don't think with the kind of team we have that we can afford to start weakening the infield defense, and even though Lugo has a higher RF # than Uribe, we can't afford errors. Today a Konerko error cost Garland an unearned run and prevented us from bunting in the 9th after Perez drew a leadoff walk.

QUOTE(SoxFan1 @ Jun 26, 2005 -> 08:58 PM) Dumbass....look at your boy Damaso walking the 1st guy he see's. Wow, then he get's a lucky DP against DLee.... :headshake If your seriously think Cotts is better than Lidge.... If you noticed, I ranked Marte fourth in our pen. I think he may have the best pure stuff, but he hasn't harnessed it. I wouldn't trade the farm just to get a reliever who would our fourth best. Just watch Neal Cotts develop. This kid is going to be great. The Sox need some guys who we develop like that instead of just drooling over guys on other teams.

QUOTE(Jimenez4MVP @ Jun 25, 2005 -> 10:41 PM) Dude your crazy, Lidge would easily become our best reliever and kick Hermanson out of the closers role.. He has a 2.73 ERA and K's batters at an alarming rate I think ERA is almost useless to evaluate a relief pitcher. And it doesn't matter to me how many strike outs he gets if he's a closer and starts innings himself. To me the way to value a relief pitcher, beyond saves for a closer, is the percentage of his appearances where he holds opponents scoreless. In my brief look at this, Lidge didn't perform any better than Neal Cotts or Cliff Politte, and he was worse than Hermanson. (But if ERA obsesses you, then Lidge's 2.73 is also worse than those three guys and only scarcely better than Marte's 2.81.)

QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Jun 25, 2005 -> 02:39 AM) So, you wouldn't give up prospects for a guy like Schmidt, but you'd give up probably more prospects and a ridiculous amount of money to get Clemens? You said it yourself, we're not the Yankees or Red Sox. And you went against your own logic. If I thought Schmidt would deliver the WS to us, I suppose I'd give up almost anything because I've been waiting 35 years for the Sox to win. But I don't see him being the difference maker at this point. Roger is a different story becuase he would be the difference maker, but if you note I'm not willing to give up multiple top tier guys for him either. (For Roger, the money is only this year, and he would likely pay for himself through greater attendance and taking us to the WS.) Now if Schmidt's price was right, where the Giants were willing to take second-tier prospects, then there is little downside risk to the move. The other option might be if the Giants were willing to take Contreras in the deal along with the second tier prospects. That would at least buy us more consistency in the #4 hole.

QUOTE(Punch and Judy Garland @ Jun 25, 2005 -> 06:33 PM) Lidge doesn't just miss bats, he misses great bats. He could blow away A-rod and Sheffield. I'd mortgage the farm for him. Look at Lidge's game by game numbers. The majority of the time he is giving up baserunners, and he's giving up runs more often than Neal Cotts, Cliff Politte, or Dustin Hermanson. Plus why does Houston have to move him?

Let's talk about our Cuban pitchers. Do we really need Jason Schmidt or Ted Lilly or (fill-in-the-blank) if one or both of these guys can be brought along to October? Contreras seems to be pitching like he did his first year for the Yankees. If they can speed him up, get him to throw more fast balls and more strikes, isn't he potentially going to as good as just about any starter we might trade for other than Roger Clemens? And El Duque still seems to have it as long as his arm is rested. The 5th starter slot needs to be used only 3 times in July. Why not give El Duque the month off and see if McCarthy can rediscover his ST magic? So my feeling is that we shouldn't be trading for a starter unless the starter is clearly better not only than these guys, but would shift the whole playoff rotation a notch to improve our matchups in all games. Like Roger Clemens.

This is my take on what the Sox trade priorities should be. My sole goal is to win the World Series, and I believe all trades should be with that in mind. 1. Roger Clemens. If Houston isn't trading him, then fine. I'm not willing to pay so much that they HAVE to take the deal. But he alone could put this team over the top. He's probably the only pitcher who could be on the market that would knock Mark Buehrle to #2, but in doing so, our playoff rotation of Rocket, Buehrle, Garcia and Garland would best any rival in baseball no matter what trades they might make. 2. Replace Uribe. Everyone has focused on Crede, but it is Uribe who has reverted to his norm, which is a sub-.300 OBP and not enough power to make up for it. Uribe's got a great arm, but he's a sure out in the lineup. What would it take to pry Omar Vizquel from the Giants? (Of course, we could have solved this just by paying a little more to sign Omar as a FA.) I suppose the only consolation is that Uribe's splits show that September and April are his best months, so maybe he likes colder weather? (I also don't suppose that Ozuna can be the starter and Uribe the backup? Maybe Uribe's back injury will be a blessing by letting us find that out.) 3. Eddie Guardado. I love Cotts and Politte and how they've grown in the pen. And Hermanson has closed very well, especially if he's not used every day. And maybe even Marte will harness his incredible stuff. But we could use a tested veteran that can close games. If we got Eddie, I would like move Hermanson into an 8th inning role along with Politte, Cotts, and Marte. Shingo or Vizcaino could be part of the trade. (If we don't add a top starter, then this would move to #1.) That's it for me. We don't need much. Here is who I would NOT trade for. 1. Jason Schmidt. The bidding on this is going to be sky high. Baltimore and Texas desperately need him right now. But I'm not convinced he's so much better than Jose Contreras right now, who has shown marked improvement and could get even better over the next 3 months. 2. Brad Lidge/Roy Oswalt/Morgan Ensberg. I don't think any of these guys will be dealt. And even if Lidge is, he would only be our fourth or fifth best reliever, behind Hermanson, Politte, Cotts, and possibly even Marte. Check his game by game stats. He give up hits most appearances and runs far too often. 3. Joe Randa. I'm not set against this one, but I don't think we should replace Joe Crede just yet. Yes, we've all waited forever for Crede to learn to hit, but as someone pointed out, he has hit very well in April and June, so maybe he will come around. But it is Crede's defense that I would not want to give up in a 1-run playoff game in the late innings. Randa's defense looks as good on paper, but who would play 3B next year? Remember how Crede got hot his call up year late in the season? I still think it is possible for him to find that, and even if he doesn't, as an 8th or 9th place hitter that can bop 20+ HRs and play great infield defense, I don't think he's hurting us. 4. Ted Lilly. Why? We don't need a journeyman to fill the fifth starter spot. I'd give El Duque July off to heal - the 5th starter need only start 3 games that month - and see what McCarthy has. And if McCarthy wins a couple of those games, I'd rest El Duque even longer so he's healthy and sharp in October. A healthy El Duque could be a secret weapon in the postseason with his guile and experience. Anyway, that's how I see it now. But my mind could change.

I've posted here off and on since 2000, so I'm not a rookie. And I'm happier now that I've finally figured out how to get rid of what really turned me off on this site. So let's just leave it at that for now.

I've read through this entire thread but I'm not convinced Schmidt would put us over the top. Maybe it's because I haven't seen him pitch enough. I just wonder how much better Schmidt would be than Garcia or Garland or even, yes, Contreras, who is #2 in the AL in opposing batting average. We don't need a starter to win the AL Central or finish with the best record in the AL. If we are going to pay to get a starter the point would be to have it be the key acquisition to win the World Series. Now Schmidt has actually pitched in the World Series, so that is something. And he's a power pitcher the likes of which we don't have. Plus AJ knows him from last year. So I see the arguments... The other thing that makes me pause is an article on John Hart down in Texas, who built the Indians into a perenial winner. He did so by cultivating his young players and signing them out past their FA walking years. The Twins do the same. I think that is the only way to build a long term winner in baseball if you are not the Yankees or BoSox and can spend billions. Because there is enough doubt in my mind about Schmidt's marginal value (over what we have), especially given the NL-to-AL inflation in ERA, I wouldn't surrender any top prospects for Schmidt. No McCarthy. No Anderson. No Sweeney. But if SF would take second tier prospects - Diaz, Borchard, etc. and perhaps El Duque (if they wanted him) - and we paid Schmidt's contract, I could be persuaded. What I'd rather have is Roger Clemens, however, because he is a bona fide #1 pitcher who would allow Buehrle, Garcia and Garland to easily best other teams' 2-4 starters. For Clemens, I'd also be willing to consider trading a single impact prospect and lower tier guys, but not more.

QUOTE(Be Good @ Jun 25, 2005 -> 01:50 AM) If you go to your "My Controls" you can turn off avatars and signatures. It's very useful for me, as I post from work often. Okay. Good suggestion. But I don't see where to do it. The only Avatar or signature links I see under My Controls are for my own. I don't see how to turn off everyone elses. I think I have figured it out. Thanks. So at this point I would be happy to delete this post, though I still think people should try to write less personal chit chat and more baseball info that a stranger might be interested in reading.