VAfan

I switch off a fair amount between this site and the MLB Sox site, though I've posted a lot more in the past. But the one thing that drives me away from here is how long it takes to wade through to find something interesting to read. In between are all these huge personal photos and tag lines and a lot of stuff that may have looked cool the first time you put it up, but after seeing it repeated 10 times in a single thread, becomes awfully tiresome. Y'all can shout me down if you want. But give me a site where I can read 5 messages in a row on one screen of my computer and don't spend my entire time scrolling down, down, down just to find something. Overall I think the posters here are more knowledgeable baseball fans and have better analyses, but frankly it takes way too long to find it. Especially when so many posts are just chit chat and don't really add anything to the discussion. For example, I just looked at the composite trade post. I think that's a good idea. But the whole first page was filled with nothing but puff. Not a single trade idea or analysis. Out of 4 pages, there weren't 3 threads worth reading. Everything else was just empty chatter. And I think the trend is not good. A couple of years ago, I felt like the ratio of seeing a post worth reading to those of zero value was much better. Sorry, that's just the way I feel.

QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Jun 14, 2005 -> 07:50 PM) ps. VA, who skewered you? you asked the sites opinion on your trade idea and got it. I didnt see everyone ripping into you badly or calling you stupid. My point was that I was as interested in hearing other options than hearing why Griffey would be a terrible idea. I understand the risks of taking a guy like Griffey. But I really want to hear what people think would give us an even chance to win the AL Pennant and the World Series. We're built a lot like the Twins teams of the last 3 years. Those teams played solid baseball, but ultimately were overmatched in the playoffs. What will it take to turn this Sox team, which is solidly on track to make the postseason, into a team that can beat out the Angels, Twins, O's, Red Sox, Rangers, or Yankees in October? Our strength has been 5-deep starting pitching, a very solid bullpen, and just enough hitting to win most nights. But in the postseason other teams will not have to expose their 4th and 5th starters or the guys at the end of their bullpens, so a lot of our pitching advantage may be neutralized. Good pitching might also shut down much of our lineup, especially since we still have so few reliable lefty bats. Maybe we'll just apply a minor tweak or two and hope for the best. But I'd like to wonder if making a bolder move might really put us over the top.

Don't skewer me about Ken Griffey Jr. If you read my post, what I really wanted was for people to start thinking outside the box about what the Sox could use to win the World Series this year. Think about that for a minute. We haven't even won a playoff series since 1917. But we actually have a chance to go all the way, especially with the Yankees and Boston scuffling. So what will it take to put us over the top? Let's hear some suggestions. (In defense of Griffey, we could really use a lefty power bat that scares opponents, and Griffey has started to come on lately. Half his salary is deferred, so the Sox might agree to take him if the Reds just paid his deferred salary. Yes Griffey would take ABs away from Dye and Everett, but he really would just replace Timo Perez on the roster. And if things didn't work out this year, he would be good insurance against some possible losses in the offseason - like Konerko, Everett, and even Frank Thomas (who I'd rather keep). The move back to the AL would probably rejuvenate him further, especially when he would be jumping from a team out of it to the team atop baseball. Even so, I'm not sold on Griffey. I really just want to stimulate ideas.)

Should the Sox be thinking about a really bold move as the trade deadline approaches? Obviously we've played outstanding team baseball to this point. If we can continue at this pace until the All-Star break, it is highly likely we'll be in the playoffs, probably with the best record in the AL and possibly in the majors. But that is no guarantee of postseason success. So what should the Sox consider doing to improve the team for October? So far most of the talk has been about replacing Joe Crede at 3B with either Joe Randa or Eric Chavez (or possibly Aubrey Huff). Other ideas have focused on the bullpen. Eddie Guardado? But I wonder if the Sox shouldn't consider something bigger that is likely to gain them more than just a microscopic improvement. What about Ken Griffey Jr.? Now that he's healthy for the first time in years, won't the Reds be willing to trade him for a couple mid-level prospects if someone would take the rest of his contract off their hands? Would the Sox be willing to pay the freight? Should they? I'm not sure that the Sox should, but I just wanted to post this to stimulate ideas that go beyond Joe Randa.

Has anyone looked at the splits for our bullpen pitchers? Marte and Cotts are much better against right handed batters than they are against lefties. It is enough of a split that if I were manager I wouldn't bring them in just to try to get a lefty out. True, they are better against lefties than Hermanson or Vizcaino, and about the same as Takatsu. But the prize for getting lefties out among our bullpen members must to go - surprise - Cliff Politte!

QUOTE(beck72 @ Jun 1, 2005 -> 12:25 PM) Guardado would have to be considered, esp. with his great control. With both sox lefties Marte and Cotts being erratic at times, he could look nice on the south side [though I don't know what Sea. would want--maybe a young SP [sean Tracey] and bullpen help [Munoz /Diaz/ Baj] a replacement for Bret Boone--[Willie Harris] I think Guardado would be an outstanding pickup. Hermanson Guardado Politte Marte (would not have to be used when he's erratic) That would be an outstanding pen. More than good enough for the postseason. Any of the top 3 guys could close. I can't imagine Seattle wanting Vizcaino. But I can see them accepting Cotts on the notion of turning him into a starter. If they want Shingo, fine too. (He could be very good in that ballpark.) And hey, maybe they would take Joe Borchard?

QUOTE(southsideirish @ Jun 1, 2005 -> 08:50 PM) Why don't we get him to play 3rd base? He is a notorious slow starter and I don't think that TB could be demanding that much for him. He is only 28 and makes about 5 million. Is he a possiblity? As most, I would love to have Chavez, but I don't want to give up so much for him. I would much rather have someone like Huff if we didn't have to give up that much to get him. What do you guys think? I don't think we would have to give up BMac, Sweeney, or Anderson to get him as we would with Chavez. There is no doubt that TB will unload Huff before the trading deadline, and because he is a free agent next year, they won't be able to demand much of anything to get him. Joe Crede straight up would probably be a fair deal if we ate Huff's remaining 2005 salary. I'd be willing to give up Joe Borchard too if necessary in a bidding war for Huff's services. But I'm concerned about whether Huff is legit at this point. This is the first season baseball has had even a semi-legitimate steroids testing program. As a result, I'm highly suspicious of anyone that shows a dramatic drop in their offensive totals this year, as Huff has done (and Chavez has done to an even greater extent). Huff is not a notorious slow starter. I looked at his splits for the last couple of years, and yes he had one weak April, but otherwise the guy was remarkably consistent, month to month year to year. He's way off those numbers. Who's to say he wasn't taking something to help? The good news is that Huff isn't on the market right now and probably won't be until the first of July at least. So we have another month to evaluate whether Huff will return to his consistent form or stay in the testing-regime doldrums. If he stays in the latter category, I'd stay clear even if we're only renting him until October. But if he rebounds, then by all means trade Crede and put Huff at 3B. His defense there isn't great, but he's a lefty that would be a nice addition anywhere from 3rd-6th in our lineup. (Steer clear of Chavez at all costs. He's showing worse testing-year doldrums and comes with a big contract. That would be like trading for Jason Giambi after you knew he couldn't hit anymore.)

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Jun 1, 2005 -> 05:43 PM) I want Chavez badly, very badly. Why do all of you guys want Chavez? Anyone that has shown a huge offensive drop the year baseball finally instituted a steroids testing program is highly suspect in my eyes. How do you know Chavez isn't going to take a Giambi-like dive?? Hey, I'd love a left-handed power-hitting 3B as much as all of you, but I wouldn't trade squat to get saddled with Eric Chavez's contract unless I knew he was legit, and right now I wonder.

QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Feb 24, 2005 -> 10:25 PM) 1) Dowload Lahman Database. -- http://www.baseball1.com/statistics/ 2) learn Acess/excel if you can't figure out access. 3) everything you ever wanted to know about Baseball is right at your fingertips. Thanks for the link to the database. Any chance someone has already done the analysis or something similar?

Sorry in advance for posting this on the Sox site, but I haven't been able to find anything on this anywhere and I thought someone here might know where to look. I'm looking for an article that might have analyzed Barry Bonds' phenomenal jump in slugging performance after 1999 (at age 36) and compared it to all the other major league players that have played until they were 40. We all know that the trend in baseball is a decline in performance after age 35, but I wonder if anyone has ever plotted out that decline for all ballplayers who have lasted long enough (and therefore been good enough) to play through age 40. One could then compare that data against Barry Bonds' dramatic increase in performance starting in the year he turned 36 (2000). Since he turned 36, in fact, he has had by far the best 4 years of what was until then a stellar career. If you look at slugging alone, the percentage increase in his performance has been phenomenal. Why do I raise this? Because I believe someone needs to do some real analysis, as Barry approaches Aaron's record, just how much steroids have helped Barry's totals since 2000. Everyone can guess, but it would be much better if it were grounded in a comparison of all other ballplayers that have ever played the game. (It would also be interesting if other clear steroid users were the only ones to have comparable late-in-career spikes.) Has such an analysis, or anything similar, already been done? If so, I'd love to find it. Thanks.

I still believe too. The bats are going to wake up again, starting tonight. GO SOX!

JM has set up his rotation for the ALDS of Loiaza, Colon, Buehrle. If there is a playoff game to get in, Loiaza will be the only one with enough rest to go. Garland would then have to start the opener, with Colon on 3 days in game 2, Buehrle on 4 days in game 3, Loiaza again on 4 days in game 4, and then Colon on 4 days in Game 5. That's not too bad. It's not enough to fear a playoff. Without a playoff, it will likely be Loiaza on 4 days, Colon on 3 days, Buehrle on 4 days, then Loiaza again on 3 days, and Colon on 4 days. But some of this presumes we use a 5th starter once more -- on the 20th.

I think you've correctly placed the critical point at a 9-4 finish. That may only yield a tie unless the Tigers get tough and decide not to set the record for losses in a season.

Those of you Sox fans who fear a Sox/Cubs WS should have more faith in our team. Sure, all the press would go to the Northsiders. But ultimately the spoils of victory would go to the Sox, and I've been waiting 33 years for that. If you think the recent Cubs/Cardinals series was intense, Sox/Cubs would be off the richter scale as sports contests go. I just spent two weeks of vacation in Chicago. My first extended time back since the mid-70s. Partly because I've been feeling that this could finally be the year. If the Sox make the Series, I'm there. If the Sox and Cubs make the Series, every one-time fan will make the exodus or watch every moment on TV or radio. Sox/Cubs would put baseball on the map again. Especially if you feel beleagured or resentful as a Sox fan, what better way to shut up Cub fans for all time than to beat them in a World Series? It would not be sweet enough to beat up the Braves or the Giants. It would be 1000 times sweeter to vanquish the Cubs!! So come out of your shells and pull for a city series. Trust me, if the Sox beat the Cubs in 7 in a WS, it will be the best sports event you'll ever witness.

I haven't lived in Chicagoland since the mid-1970's, and have been a die hard Sox fan since 1970. I switched from the Cubs after 1969 and never looked back. My distance from the city may be why I have never developed a loathing of the Cubs. Mostly, I could care less. It hurts some that Sosa made his career after leaving us, but I'm sure it hurts Cubs fans more all the guys who have prospered elsewhere (eg, Maddux, Palmeiro). That being said, I think it would be tremendous to have a Sox/Cubs World Series. Indeed, I think that would be the most earth shattering sports event in my lifetime, in ANY SPORT. It would dwarf all the other sports long shots of the last century. Plus, as a Sox fan, in a 7 game series, I like our chances against the Cubbies.

I'm certainly not a Colon basher. Come playoff time, he's going to earn his money. At one point, I would have led with him, but now I would lead with Loaiza and follow with Bartolo. Buehrle against anyone else's #3 has to have the advantage. Bartolo has had too many "bad" games this year, but he's also had a lot more "dominant" games than Mark. Loiaza started the ASG and mowed down a VERY tough lineup while the Rocket retired the bottom of the order and got all the ink. Loaiza, Colon, Buehrle. That's the only reasonable ranking of Sox starters this year.

Gammons is voting for Hudson on ESPN on the strength of 5 blown saves in Hudson started games. But what about Loaiza's 2 1-0 losses to the Tigers?? Esteban should be 20-4 already. Oakland is a media darling when it comes to awards (Tejada had no business winning MVP over A-Rod last year when A-Rod was a better player IN ALL CATEGORIES and played the same position better -- before him Giambi got the not in 2000 MVP even though Frank and the Sox were better), but Esteban is going to win.

This confirms that Minnesota, not KC, is our most serious division rival.

Interesting. So I assume Billy Koch will be on the playoff roster but someone up currently will not. I doubt if we'll do any more tinkering than that. The real question is whether to go with 10 pitchers or 11. If we do the former, Koch would likely sub for Danny Wright. If the latter, both would make it. If we added a 15th position player, who would that be? Aaron Miles? Joe Borchard? Jamie Burke? Reed?

Harris/Miles??? Egads. I hope we convince Robbie to come back.

The way I look at the 10-8 loss is that it looks a lot like the 10-9 loss the to Tigers the first game after the ASB. After that failed comeback the Sox won 13 out of 14. I think we are going to get hot again.

Cotts should get another chance, and Wright pitched great out of the pen. That is still the option that makes the most sense. If Cotts can't get it done against Texas in 5 days, then reevaluate.

If Tony Pena can't get him to play, I'm not sure JM can.

You can add my name to this bandwagon. I just hope Sox brass show him enough confidence to let him get another shot in 5 days. He'll be rested and should be much less nervous. I also think they might want to rethink having Sandy catch him. I know Sandy's the veteran and all. But sometimes I think Sandy wants to nibble the corners too much. That's not what Neal needs. He should trust his stuff and come after hitters.

I'm guessing they are hoping to get something better than Ginter. Sandy Alomar saw him on his rehab and thought he had the best arm in AAA, so it sounds like they are taking his advice. I hope they leave Adkins and Wright in the pen and give Cotts another start when he shouldn't be nearly as nervous.