Here is how I see the suitors for each guy as of now:
Machado: White Sox/Phillies/Yankees/mystery team
Harper: White Sox/Dodgers/Phillies/mystery team
Algebraically, 1/4 X 1/4 = 1/16 which is 6.25%. That isn't entirely accurate because there are other factors involved like you mentioned, but the Sox have as much, if not more money to spend than the competition and have the luxury of waiting it out. I'm liking the odds of the Sox getting one of them if nothing else, but getting both still isn't out of the question for me.