OmarComing25

If we assume that both are going to sign for similar amounts (though I think Harper gets more regardless if he signs first), I'm not convinced that the 2nd one to sign is going to get more money. The theme of these chases seems to be that their are few suitors for both guys, and a signing of one is presumably going to take one of those suitors out of the running. Now the other team knows they have less competition for the other guy, and there's not really an incentive to increase their offer. I get that desperation could set in but based on how long this has dragged out thus far I'm not convinced that there would be a panic offer incoming.

If either of them sign a one year deal I will eat a baseball on video.

I agree, the $/WAR figure comes from what teams have paid for WAR on the FA market, not what they were expecting to pay. It's likely that performance of FA was less than expected by front offices, and they've adjusted their expectations accordingly with the offers in recent years. I doubt teams are/were comfortable paying $9-10 million/WAR, and from what we've seen over the past two offseasons in particular this seems to be the case.

I'm pretty "meh" on the Narvaez trade myself, but at the end of the day we're talking about a guy who had the same xwOBA in 2018 as Aaron Altherr and who despite having a 122 wRC+ at a position that is starved for offense was so bad at framing that BP thought he was replacement level.

He's at worst the 2nd best, Grandal is the only one who really has an argument over him, and that depends on how valuable you think framing is.

PECOTA has the Cubs at 82-80... Really?

I've been watching a bunch of Spanish/Mexican shows on Netflix to practice my Spanish, one show I found really fun is Club de Cuervos. It's about a wealthy family that owns a soccer team in Mexico, one of the better sports TV shows I've seen. It's got a lot of good acting, drama and humor (I particularly like the main character Chava). 4th and final season just dropped last weekend.

2018: xwOBA of .387 and wOBA of .376 2017: xwOBA of .395 and wOBA of .416 2016: xwOBA of .353 and wOBA of .343 2015: xwOBA of .415 and wOBA of .461 His "unlucky" seasons weren't actually that unlucky. His 2017 and 2015 seasons were relatively much more lucky.

The drop in innings isn't just about saving their arm, it's because a fresh reliever is more effective in the later innings than a tired starter. Also back in the 80s only a handful of relievers threw really hard, but now every team has multiple guys throwing high 90s that they can turn to. So it's not just trying to keep the arm fresh you can also blame analytics.

I didn't say anything, that was someone else. But regardless, Harper didn't get unlucky in 2016, he made a lot less hard contact that year. His xwOBA pretty much matched his wOBA.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11579&position=OF#battedball He had a lower ground ball rate in 2018 and 2015 and the exact same rate in 2017.

Both of these statements are wrong. Last year our position players didn't crack 10 WAR. Steamer also currently projects 16 WAR from our position players without Machado. With Machado it'd be ~20. Add in Joc and it's ~22.

Good deal but not sure I'd call it a huge steal, Pollock is 31, can't stay healthy and outside of one season has been more OK than great.

Machado makes so much sense for the Pirates. If they were ever a threat to actually spend money I'd be worried about them.

Yeah those splits weren’t on the player page so I had to go to the leaderboards and play with the filters there to find them. Does seem bizarre that it would be random, I was hoping to find something more definitive there.

Tim Anderson 1st half 2018: 40.6% O-Swing%, 71.3% Z-Swing%, 42.3% Zone% Tim Anderson 2nd half 2018: 39.6% O-Swing%, 74.6% Z-Swing%, 43.2% Zone% Going by those metrics his plate discipline actually slightly improved in the 2nd half, I'm guessing the 6% 1st half walk rate was just a circumstance of random luck rather than an actual change in approach.

That is my point. Their playoff roster was far from being a super team yet they still came within a couple plays of winning the World Series.

Wade Miley actually pitched a lot better than Sale in the 2018 playoffs.

I'm just talking about the 2016 playoff iteration of the Indians though. That version of the team was hardly a force. They weren't any better than Oakland last year.

I wouldn't call the Indians in 2016 a super team, they had their #2 and #3 SP injured in the playoffs and had to rely heavily on Josh freaking Tomlin to get within one win of winning the World Series. They went the farthest of any Indians playoff team in the past few years but that version was easily the worst of them due to injuries. Kind of like how the worst team of the 2008-2012 Phillies did the best in the playoffs.

Don't understand the hate either, I love that city. Have a close friend who lives there and I always enjoy visiting him. Visited my friend's cabin there one summer for the 4th and it was awesome.

I'm not sure how those odds mirror your thoughts. The Brewers had the same odds as the Yankees. 7 to 1 or 10 to 1 aren't very slim odds considering the playoffs feature 8 teams after the wild card games and that the odds are supposed to be slightly unfavorable to give the house an advantage. Even 12 to 1 isn't that crazy.

I don't think I agree. Unless you think the Twins or Angels take a big jump, the only two contenders for that will be Oakland and Tampa Bay. I know Oakland just won 97 games but their rotation is nearly as bad as ours right now (their #1 SP right now is... Mike Fiers?), I see a big drop off for them this year. Tampa Bay is a wild card itself, I could see them winning 82 games or I could see them winning 95. Either way I don't see how either of those teams are almost certainly better than Cleveland. I'd actually put the Angels above the A's right now but it'll probably come down to health.

Because with Bonds and Clemens we're talking about arguably the best position player and pitcher of all time. Sosa on the other hand would be on the lower end of Hall of Famers with his numbers, so it's easy to argue that without steroids he wouldn't be close to HOF caliber.

Walker better get in next year. Nice to see Edgar and Mussina finally get in.