OmarComing25
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Everything posted by OmarComing25
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 12:35 PM) The White Sox defense sucked last year. The OF hasn't changed as of today. QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 12:59 PM) The big uptick in ERA is odd. He's never been higher than a 3.51 in a 200IP season. The lower FIP isn't as surprising to me, as SS noted, due to the same OF defense. He's posted a FIP .5 lower than his ERA before (2014). I understand the point about the defense, but last year Quintana only had a 0.18 difference from FIP to ERA. Compare that to Danks (0.22), Sale (0.68) and Samardzija (0.73). Rodon actually is projected to have a lower ERA (3.81) than FIP (3.88). It just doesn't make sense why Quintana is projected to have the biggest FIP-ERA gap by far among all our SP (0.44), when the other starters sans Rodon all have gaps projected in the 0.20-0.25 range.
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QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:10 PM) The hitters actually look pretty realistic to me except maybe being a best case scenario for LaRoche (honestly). Assuming LaRoche doesn't see much time against LHP this year, I don't see that batting line as best case scenario.
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White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:31 AM) I wouldn't go so far as to call it lazy analysis. And I'm a guy that likes advanced statistics, but the defensive ones still leave a ton to be desired. In order for an error to be recorded, that means that a fielder: This is the problem I have with the "Well, he just has great range, and is getting to balls that most ordinary fielders wouldn't". If that were true, he wouldn't be charged with an error. He's clearly doing things.....LOTS OF THINGS...that cost BASES. At least 11 more bases than a bad Alexei year, and most likely a lot more than just 11. That's just not true. There are dozens of examples every year of plays being mistakenly marked as errors or non-errors, it's a subjective judgment call, and if a player gets to a ball that leads to an error he's not giving up extra bases if the other player doesn't even get to the ball. You're also completely ignoring throwing errors, which can easily happen on balls the defender with poorer range doesn't get to. -
White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I didn't say to ignore errors, but saying things like "he makes a lot of errors so he's not a good defender" is short-sighted. -
White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (bear_brian @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 09:52 AM) Anyway you cut it, this guy made 27 errors last year and 24 the year before that. Alexei made 16 last year, just for comparison. He is not a reliable defender, and therefore not what we need to resolve our problem. We've long moved past just looking at # of errors to determine good defense. That's just lazy analysis. -
QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:14 AM) Those ERA projections for Quintana and Rodon are laughable. Quintana's is strange not only because of the ERA, but also his projected FIP (3.29). Not sure why the projection has such a big gap between the two numbers, especially considering Quintana's career ERA (3.46) is almost identical to his career FIP (3.45).
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Projected numbers: Sale: 2.99 ERA Quintana: 3.73 ERA Rodon: 3.81 ERA Johnson: 4.70 ERA Danks: 4.88 ERA Beck: 5.38 ERA Carroll: 5.35 ERA Turner: 5.98 ERA Frazier: .255/.318/.449 Eaton: .277/.352/.400 Abreu: .285/.352/.505 Lawrie: .255/.310/.406 Saladino: .232/.290/.347 Navarro: .259/.314/.385 Avila: .203/.321/.336 Melky: .281/.325/.403 LaRoche: .226/.317/.401 Garcia: .265/.311/.394 Anderson: .257/.283/.369
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White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
From yesterday's Fangraphs After Dark Chat: -
QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 02:34 PM) I prefer to think positive. Avi has had one full season under hs belt. He is a talented young player. I said himself towards the end of the season he knew he had to work on hs hitting. I stress that point because too many young players don't pay attention to their hitting coach and can't self assess their weaknesses as ballplayers. We could be in for a pleasant surprise in 2016 with Avi Garcia Depends on what your definition of pleasant surprise is. If he produces a non-negative WAR in 2016 that will be a pleasant surprise for me.
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Dexter Fowler as a secondary option
OmarComing25 replied to blackmooncreeping's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 01:52 PM) Still think it's closer to $25 million...we'll see. I don't think you'd want players who are resenting the feeling they are underpaid...but maybe that's the sting of motivation both guys would need. We know that Fowler is still likely to be overpaid despite the QO attached. As far as Desmond vs. Anderson, one of them could see more time at DH or in the outfield...but you have this entire season to assess. Basically, getting some positional flexibility and speed/athleticism at two additional spots, compared to Avi's physical potential which is largely untapped or underutilized. What's best case scenario for the AAV for Jackson and Desmond? Jackson at $8 million AAV and Desmond at $14-15 million AAV? -
Dexter Fowler as a secondary option
OmarComing25 replied to blackmooncreeping's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:38 PM) [/b] He averages about 2 WAR per year. I'd say that's a little better than average. He's just about to turn 30, too. He still has some good years left, plus the eye test tells me he's a bit better defensively than broken defensive metrics. 2 WAR is pretty average. Look at the median WAR by position for 2015 (using only qualified hitters): C: 2.4 1B: 3.0 2B: 2.4 SS: 1.7 3B: 3.9 LF: 2.6 RF: 2.4 CF: 2.8 Those obviously are missing a lot of players (there were less than 20 qualified players on average for each position, so all 30 teams aren't going to be represented in each sample), but if you factor those in the median still likely falls in the 2 WAR range. It's nothing that special, unless you are upgrading from a black hole, which we are. -
QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:27 PM) Haha I think everyone would be. Yep, which is a pretty good sign the Dodgers wouldn't be.
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I doubt the Rockies would want a flyball pitcher like Johnson anyway.
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How much did Rick Hahn improve the catching position?
OmarComing25 replied to Quin's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:04 PM) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-beginni...-pitch-framing/ Article on pitch framing. Interesting article, thanks for the link. I don't think there's been something I've changed my mind on so many times like I have on pitch framing. I really don't know where to stand. A couple comments in that article stood out to me. First, is there data on which umpires are more susceptible to pitch framing? That'd be interesting to see. Second, "I’d like to see swing rate on borderline pitches vs known pitch framers each year. Don’t forget hitters adapt too." That'd be very cool to see too, it'd be interesting to know if hitters change their approach at all with a known pitch framer behind the plate. -
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 10:46 AM) Neither are we, though. Having another team in the division that's equally as good is a substantial obstacle. No disagreement there
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I really think people are overrating the Tigers. Even with Upton I don't see them as much more than an 81-84 win team right now.
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White Sox rotation ranked 6th in the majors
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I'm really hesitant to rank our rotation until I see Erik Johnson pitch for a couple months first. -
Dexter Fowler as a secondary option
OmarComing25 replied to blackmooncreeping's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 08:18 AM) Where was I "completely wrong?" I asked what is the cost to the A's for Gray "this year". I'm not disagreeing with anything you posted (agree 100% about the value gap shrinking over time), but: 1. Not a point anyone was making 2. If he continues to perform at current levels he's still more "bang for buck" value, particularly since he has virtually no impact on a team's payroll. I think it's because we disagree on how to determine value. Let's say both pitchers live up to their projections by Steamer next year. Gray at 3.5 WAR certainly beats out Sale at 6 WAR if you look at value as salary/WAR. But by that same logic Erik Johnson at 0.5 WAR would be more valuable than Sale, which is just silly. If instead you look at the surplus value each pitcher provides beyond their contract, then it's easy to see why Sale would be more valuable (6 WAR would be $42-48 million in value, vs. ~$25 million for 3.5 WAR, going by the idea that 1 WAR = $7-8 million). -
White Sox rotation ranked 6th in the majors
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I'd put the Indians rotation #2 behind the Mets. Carrasco and Salazar are as underrated as Quintana is. -
White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jan 25, 2016 -> 09:31 PM) When you have to use 1/2 season stats to justify major investments, it kind of makes my point. Not to mention Desmond's defense is less than exemplary. I wouldn't have gotten either one of them. And a bad 2nd half wasn't the only reason I didn't want Frazier (bad splits; Sox terrible historical track record with NL sluggers; we had 3B hole filled adequately; Frazier cost 3 good ML ready prospects). Not getting one of the big 3 OF is a big miss. If we take Hahn at his word that he wants to build this org. so it consistently wins, you have to use the FA market, esp. one who wouldn't cost a draft pick. And when KW puts forth this artificial 3 year window, which is now year 2, when OF was as big a problem as 3B (bigger defensively last year), and yet they let these players pass, it speaks loudly of lack of coherent front office strategy. I'm not just using half a season to justify Desmond. Here are his last 8 half seasons: 2015 2nd half: 1.9 WAR 2015 1st half: -0.1 WAR 2014 2nd half: 1.9 WAR 2014 1st half: 2.0 WAR 2013 2nd half: 1.6 WAR 2013 1st half: 3.1 WAR 2012 2nd half: 1.9 WAR 2012 1st half: 2.8 WAR Seems to me there's one clear outlier, and it's not the half season I wrote about in my last post. -
QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 25, 2016 -> 05:44 PM) I'm getting this same feeling and it's making me sick to my stomach. If he starts 2016 as our RF, then I want Rick Hahn to be accountable if/when he fails. You don't tell your fanbase you're serious about competing and then trot out one of the worst players in baseball last year at a position where numerous upgrades were available. Until Avi learns how to field & run, the chances of him becoming a productive OF are slim to none. And quite frankly, it's nearly impossible to coach up a lack of instincts & stupidity. Agreed, with the bountiful OF market going into this offseason, I had zero doubt in my mind that Hahn would find someone to replace Avi, but now as each day goes by the fear of Avi as our 2016 starting RF is looking more and more likely. And if that happens I can't see that as anything other than a colossal mistake by Hahn.
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White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 25, 2016 -> 04:44 PM) In the 2nd half last season, his average was 262 and had an OPS over 770. Yeah for a poster who likes to harp on Frazier's 2nd half stats, Desmond had a higher WAR after the All-Star Break than the likes of Anthony Rizzo, JD Martinez, and Justin Upton, and was equal to Nolan Arenado. -
White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 10:21 PM) Heyward - like 25.5 (if you consider the 3 years and all signing bonus money even if its deferred) Cespedes - 25 Gordon - 18 Upton - 22 Basically a shade under what everyone is expecting with big shocker being years. I have no sympathy for the comments like "so you want them to pay X $25 million per YEAR?!?!". No, I didn't , but when they rely on Free Agency to acquire talent and claim to want to compete right way, that they actually engage that market with realistic expectations of cost. None of these guys are "overpaid", they are paid what top level free agent outfielders will continue to get. I would agree with you if Gordon had signed with the Angels and Cespedes had signed with the Orioles. But 2 of the Big 3 stayed with their original teams, and the third reportedly had no interest in coming here. It wasn't a case of being unwilling to pay what they ultimately got paid, because we would have had to significantly outbid the other offers to have a chance. According to reports both Gordon and Cespedes had higher offers on the table, who says the Sox didn't bid more on both of them? If that was the case it seems like the Sox were well aware of the cost needed to acquire them, but it wasn't going to be enough to get them. -
White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 07:37 PM) Would I pay him $30M a year? No, but only because I didn't win that PowerBall from a couple of weeks ago; otherwise, I might have been tempted!! Would I be ok with Jerry Reinsdorf digging into his coffeiurs and outbidding the Mets of all teams, who are in far greater financial dire straits than the Sox, for the services of Cespedes? Oh, you betcha! You betcha. We currently have a modest payroll at best, so bringing in Cespedes would not have broken the bank. Meanwhile, Cespedes would have put us in a far greater position to compete next year and return to the postseason. Instead, we still have the two sub-par players manning the OF corners, and now the discussions are focusing on bringing in guys like Fowler and Jackson, who aren't much better than the incumbents themselves. Big time, missed opportunity this week by the geniuses in the front office, the same guys who brought us Cabrera and Avi to begin with. So you're mad at ownership for not paying Cespedes more money than every other position player in the league? -
White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond
OmarComing25 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 07:11 PM) It was absolutely a no-brainer to have brought Cespedes in, for exactly the reasons you stated. And yet we were outbid by the Madoff-challenged Mets to do so. This was a colossal failure for this front office, to be sure. And now we find ourselves in discussions about the free agent market leftovers, guys like Fowler, who is a table scrap from the Cubs made expendable by them because they DID acquire a premium available outfielder this offseason. Fowler, this year's Melky Cabrera: decent hitter, sub par defender. That sound like Cespedes to you? So would you have paid Cespedes $30 million this year? Because that's the minimum it would have taken to pry him away from the Mets. And I'm still not sure that would have been enough.