OmarComing25

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Dec 4, 2015 -> 03:00 PM) Sale can only get you 31 wins. Machado has a chance to get you 162. This is real simple stuff. Not really. Say there were two lotteries, and in one you get to play it 162 times with a 10% chance of winning, and in another you get to play it 31 times with a 53% chance of winning. Your expected # of wins in Lottery A is 16.2. Your expected # of wins in Lottery B is 16.43. Even though Lottery A gave you over 5 times as many chances for a win, Lottery B has the better expected payout in terms of number of wins.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Dec 4, 2015 -> 02:53 PM) That's such an odd way to look at it. Machado impacted 162 games last year. Sale impacted 31. Why? Say the position player has on average an impact of 10% on each game. If a SP has an impact on average of 50% for each game he plays, then their impact over the course of the season is relatively equal. And once again, that's not counting the impact the SP does have on other games if he goes deep into the game and rests your bullpen. I don't know what the actual percentages are but you get the point.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Dec 4, 2015 -> 02:32 PM) What it means is that there are 80% of the games they have zero contribution to winning, whereas position players have an impact on ~95% of games. I understand the importance of good pitching, but good pitching with nothing else around it is worthless. Manny Machado had the most PA of any position player this year at 713. 74 pitchers this year faced at least 713 batters this season, position players might have an impact on more games, but their impact on each individual game is pretty marginal compared to the very high impact pitchers have on the games they do pitch. And they also do impact other games. If your starting pitcher gets pulled in the 3rd inning because he sucked then you're using up your bullpen, and will have tired arms for the next game. A SP who goes a complete game will mean you have a rested bullpen for the next game.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Dec 4, 2015 -> 01:32 PM) And then you look at the package that Cleveland got for Bartolo Colon. There are examples of one sided trades in both directions you can cite. You can see what Boston offered, you it wasn't accepted so obviously the Mariners knew it wasn't going to be enough. I have been against trading Sale up to this point, but, I don't see a way that this team improves when so much of their organizational player value is wrapped up in guys that appear in less than 40% of their games. Something needs to change. Ir has been let slip that it will take a small army to acquire Q, it will take a larger army to get Sale. If Dombroski called tomorrow and offered Rodriguez, Swihart, JBJ, Devers and Moncada thats a trade I would have a hard time justifying turning down. Just because a SP only pitches once every 5 days doesn't mean they aren't as valuable as position players. And DA is right, the days of overwhelming prospect offers are over. Everyone loves their prospects now, and GMs are going to be too gun-shy to pull the trigger on the deal it would take, especially with the general risk that pitchers have.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 10:03 PM) You could get Arenado for Sale. It won't happen, but Sale is more valuable. You certainly wouldn't have to add "the farm". I said you'd have to add the farm if it was Quintana for Arenado, not Sale.

We're not getting CarGo unless we give up at least a couple good prospects, and we're not getting Arenado unless we trade Sale or Quintana + the entire farm.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 08:19 PM) You rank Russell and Baez ahead of Schwarber? Interesting. Russell >> Schwarber, I'd be pissed if we traded Q for Schwarber, Russell I'd probably be happy with, though I think we might actually have to throw in a prospect to get it done. No way we get Russell and someone else.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 07:54 PM) Asked the guy that started the CarGo Sox rumors of there was anything going on. He replied with this: @gastelumcharlie: nothing so far, maybe at WM, but heard from a @Cubs coach that @whitesox asking about Russell or Báez for Quintana rumors Ignoring the merits of such a deal, Quintana is probably my favorite Sox player right now, and I will root for him wherever he goes if we trade him, but man it would really suck to see him in red and blue.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 06:18 PM) Why would the Sox want those 2? Dietrich's not a 3B. yea, maybe he improves. Avi, Sanchez and Micah could too (and the latter 2 are already stellar defensively). Defense has long been a huge albatross on the Sox On other matters: Lawrie's no better than average. Micah would be a fair deal for him, especially as Robbie doesn't know how to use him. Cargo be just a ridiculous trade. $20 mill a year, 2 year rent, heavily stacked Coors field stats, low OBP, lots of Ks. Sox need to build, not wish-cast. Average is fine, if the Sox could get 9 average position players that'd probably be enough with our pitching. We need more 2 WAR players, as even just that would be a big upgrade for several positions. Not sure why you think Robin didn't know how to use Micah, he wasn't given much of a chance to do it, and it's not like Micah gave him much of a choice with his horrendous defense. He also started a bunch if games in April when he was up, some posters put the blame on Robin for the strangest things.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 02:35 PM) If you are planning on rolling with a platoon of Avila and Navarro next season you are not planning on building a contender. Why? Steamer has the Avila/Navarro duo projected for a combined 2.5 WAR next year, which would have been the 9th best WAR from the catching spot in the MLB this season. The vast majority of catchers suck.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 02:53 PM) Interested to hear why so many prefer Lawrie over Prado? Age? SLG? Prado is an elite defender along with being a solid OBP guy. For my money, I think I would prefer him to Lawrie. My guess is because Prado would only be here for 2016.

Another comment on position player development, it's for sure been a rough decade but from 1990-2004 we developed Frank, Ventura, Durham, Ordonez, Lee, Rowand and Crede. That's pretty good. It's not like the White Sox have sucked at this forever. A bad decade doesn't mean they're doomed to never turn things around.

Just wait until robot umpires are calling strikes and balls, then pitch framing will cease to be a thing anyway.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 10:24 AM) Some of this data and the anomalies may also be explained by exit velocity off the bat. A line drive is a line drive whether it's going 75 MPH or 115 MPH. If he wasn't hitting the ball as hard, that would explain some regression in his BABIP. Some of those numbers have become available to the public, but I don't think all of them are yet. You are correct that, on the surface, it appears that it was a bit unlucky for Ramirez to have the season he had given the circumstances. True, and Baseball Savant only has data on that from 2015, and Fangraphs soft, medium and hard percentages aren't descriptive enough. http://baseballsavant.com/p.php?id=493351&...r&year=2015 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...n=SS#battedball Here's Alexei, his soft-hit% was up this year, but if you look at 2011 it appears he made much softer contact yet his BABIP was much higher than it was this year. For exit velocity, he was below league average, but he still looks like he got a bit unlucky, he hit .127 when his exit velocity was between 85-89 MPH (around league average), and he was 29 for 167 (.173) in the 70-90 MPH range. Compare that to Abreu, who was 30 for 109 (.275) in that same range.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 09:42 AM) I don't know it just seems like a stat that could easily be explained away. Fast guys will have higher BABIP, guys with high LD% will have higher BABIP, it then takes power and strike outs out of the equation. To me it just feels like a dumb stat That's why you look at career averages and batted ball profiles. If a guy is way off his career average and his LD% and such are unchanged, then you know he's likely due for a positive/negative regression. If a guy isn't particularly fast and hits a lot of fly balls (which have a league-wide BABIP of .207) and still has a high BABIP, then something is off there. Alexei is a good example here, his LD% in 2015 was higher than his career average (21.4% vs. 19.3%), and his FB% was lower than his career average, yet his BABIP was almost 30 points below his career average.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 09:12 AM) I just don't like it. I am not sure why I just don't. Is it because of how it's applied? You think there's less luck involved in it than people claim? What about the extremes? Don't care how good a guy is, a .380 BABIP for a hitter is not sustainable, nor is a .230 BABIP if you're a pitcher.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Dec 3, 2015 -> 09:02 AM) Lots of good points being made in here: Looking forward to seeing how a strict platoon will go. It seems weird that the very first thing the Sox did was jettison their decent catching tandem for a different decent catching tandem, but ultimately it's whatever. I would say a couple things regarding catcher defense. One, a catcher's caught stealing numbers have just as much to do with who's on the mound as with the catcher himself. Only the best throwers can overcome slow deliveries to limit the running game. I rarely look at catcher CS numbers because I feel like there's too much else going on. Two, to the guys saying "lol pitch framing who cares," read up on it, if only because there's a lot of entertaining stuff. It is absolutely a skill and some guys are better at it than others. I'm not sure it's worth >1 WAR because the umpire and the pitcher also play a role, but read some articles about it, particularly with .gifs. Look up Jeff Sullivan's worst called strikes and balls pieces on Fangraphs. The way a catcher fields pitches absolutely affects what an umpire sees. The MLB-wide OPS is 92 points lower after an 0-1 count than a 1-0 count. The difference between 2-1 and 1-2 is 350 points. Catchers can get extra strikes. And grabbing extra strikes where you can is important. Agree about pitch-framing, but looking back in past years Flowers didn't rate too highly there (2014 he was below average, 2013 only slightly above average), is this something that we can be sure is a permanent change?

Wow on /r/baseball a lot of posters hate this move, amazing how valuable Flowers suddenly is now that he's gone for some people.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 2, 2015 -> 10:09 PM) Good point. Rick Hahn never misses a chance to make a marginal offensive improvement at the cost of defensive value, only to see that offense diminish and defense stay terrible during their tenure. For example?

Anderson is far from a can't miss prospect, but I don't see the sense in trading him for two years of Lucroy with all the other holes we have right now.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 2, 2015 -> 08:33 PM) I would be very nervous about getting Lucroy after his head injury last year Agreed, we're also really not in position to sell the farm for guys who only have 2 years remaining on their contracts.

Castro is a lefty, why would we go after him when we already have Avila? We need someone who can hit LHP.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable...php?cid=1819098 According to WARP (Baseball Prospectus WAR), which incorporates pitch framing, Flowers was worth two WARP last year and ranked 21st in total defensive value in the MLB among all position players. This is my first time getting a look at this stat though, don't know how it compares to rWAR or fWAR.

Dodgers may give Greinke $210 million over 6 years. https://twitter.com/FeinsandNYDN/status/672130597423292416 Insanity, his 2015 season is the definition of fool's good and he'll be 33 next year.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 2, 2015 -> 07:10 PM) Lifetime splits: Navarro vs LHP .270/.336/.439 Avila vs RHP .251/.358/.423 That platoon makes a lot of sense I'm sold, how is Navarro defensively?