OmarComing25

Remember when people thought the Rangers traded for Hamels for next season? If the current score holds, they'll be leading the West. Hurts to think we were ahead of them at the Trade Deadline.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 02:03 PM) Yeah, a quick look shows that mine didn't include Kang or Tomas, so that's part of what's different. Out of your list, >50% underperform and 25% are absolute disasters. So we did get unlucky somewhat in disasters, but that's not unexpected with odds that bad. What if you did a multi-year analysis on this? It'd be interesting to see data points beyond this year.

Trayce...

Loved the fist pump by Brantly in the bullpen there. He looked so happy.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:44 PM) It's the expected WAR there's no other way to look at it. It's like saying "oh I expect THIS lottery ticket to really pay off!" If the Sox were getting comp pick after comp pick sure, then there is a coherent strategy but this is a one off thing and it comes at a very real cost -- overpaying a 1 WAR Shark when they are already approaching max payroll. If the Sox committed to a full tear down and rebuild then HOLISTICALLY you could justify taking the comp pick as part of an internally coherent strategy but it's quite clear that is not the plan. The only way to look at these things is through the expected WAR. Yea, they could hit the jackpot but the odds are stacked against them. In my risk assesment the odds of Shark taking the QO and f***ing them for 2016 is a greater risk than the upside of picking in the 40-50 range. I mean WTF about the White Sox drafting in that pick range makes you think they are EVEN going to get that? This is the last I will post on this. Draft picks are highly, highly over valued by most fans. If the Sox could sell the the pick they'd get about 12-15 million for it at absolute most, which reflects the value of the expected WAR perfectly. Just FYI the pick would be in the mid-to-late 20s range, not 40-50. Not that it would change your valuation of it that much.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:35 PM) Samardzija deserves credit for doing his best to get the Sox a top ten pick. s*** we're 14th now? The damn Orioles are behind us now. Arizona has fallen off a bit the last two weeks too.

That now makes 9 of Jeff's last 11 starts where he's given up at least 4 runs.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:10 PM) Samardzija next year if he signs with us: 8-12, 5.00 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 195 IP, 168 K If he signs elsewhere: 16-7, 3.34 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 214 IP, 200 K I hope Jeff feels that way too.

Trayce gets an initial bad read but makes up for it with his athleticism. Also with every run Samardzija gives up it makes me more worried he won't get signed until after next year's draft. That ERA won't stop rising.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 07:36 PM) They often come from losing organizations and only have to worry about playing for a new contract. There's no pressure in August and Sept. Sounds like a bunch of psychoanalytical BS to me. Sarcasm?

Trayce! Man the ball jumps off his bat.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 07:17 PM) Guppy fuggin blows. When guys have an off-year in a White Sox uniform, they don't just regress slightly, they fall off a cliff. So annoying.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 07:27 PM) Saying they would be under .500 in the AL is a bit of a stretch, but I do think their record would be worse. Same with the Cardinals and Pirates too.

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 06:09 PM) Just a few observations, hoping they're a contending team next year. 10 of the first 13 on the road, including starting in Oakland. Hopefully that means they stay in Arizona through Saturday, and pair up with the D-backs on some exhibitions. They don't play the Tigers until June, and play all 19 games in the season series over 85 games total. Starting the second half on the West coast...that could pose a focus problem. Playing the Angels and Mariners, and immediately come home to face the Tigers, Cubs, and Twins. That's tough stuff. The final 2 weeks of the season aren't that bad. Phillies and Indians on the road. Rays and Twins at home. Could be worse. It's not a bad schedule for a team that intends to compete. This all assumes those teams stay relatively the same quality next year. A bunch of teams make big jumps in both directions every season (see the entire AL West, hell almost the entire AL). Regression, injuries, off-years, career years, surprise rookies, a lot can change a year from now.

How does Clark rate as a prospect?

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 06:28 PM) What? They play so many bad teams. The Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Reds, Brewers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks are all horrible and playing them is a guaranteed win most of the time. The bottom of the NL is indeed horrific but c'mon now. They've fared pretty well against the Giants, Mets, and Pirates.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 04:23 PM) Give Saladino ABs sure; but at the two hole? And Robin should be brought back because? I was going to make a joke about how much we've outplayed our run differential, but the disparity there isn't actually that big anymore.

How much would he cost?

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:53 PM) Is the fact the cubs strike out at an alarming rate ever going to be an issue? On average they strike out once an inning...that is on average. Good pitchers get them three times every two innings and a good closer...well you get the point. MLB rank of strikeouts by previous MLB champions: 2014: Giants - 17th 2013: Red Sox - 8th 2012: Giants - 26th 2011: Cardinals - 29th 2010: Giants - 19th 2009: Yankees - 27th 2008: Phillies - 12th 2007: Red Sox - 21st 2006: Cardinals - 25th 2005: White Sox - 17th 2004: Red Sox - 4th 2003: Marlins - 23rd 2002: Angels - 30th 2001: Diamondbacks - 20th 2000: Yankees - 22nd So it seems like in general teams that win the World Series don't strike out much, but the Red Sox did win it twice with high-strikeout offenses. Does any of this mean anything? Who knows. I'd love to find out an easy way to see how high-strikeout offenses do against good pitching in general, but I don't know where to easily find that kind of data.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:41 PM) Wow, huge win for Cardinals! Now even if the Cardinals go 11-12 to finish the year the Cubs would have to go 19-5 to match them. Also, just saw highlights of Grichuk's "throws" from CF. He cost the Cards two runs today, are they that desperate for offense? Puzzling move by Matheny. Though that botched rundown in the 1st was perhaps even more pathetic.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:12 PM) I remember raBBit saying before the deadline that KW and Hahn had different ideas on what direction the team should take, or something along those lines ( sorry if I remember incorrectly raBBit). I think there's something to be said about that and could be why JR is going to get more involved. Imo, Hahn is more in tune with the modern Baseball era and is inhibited by his immediate boss, KW. It's not always a bad thing if you have different opinions in the front office because having multiple perspectives can be a good thing, but I just feel like KW is too stubborn for this to work well for us.

Looks like the Cubs are the latest victim of Fernando Rodney's wild ride.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:13 PM) Well according to the batted ball stats Sharks' been a little unlucky on his HR/FB rate and strand rate. That said, his xFIP is still a very pedestrian 4.22. I reconsider. Johnson can give you 100% of 2015 Shark at 1/10 or less of the cost. Shark has been s***. He's really a symbol of the failed offseason and season. I'm a huge advanced stats guy and while Samardzija may have been a tad bit unlucky (though as you say his FIP still isn't good), that only really matters in projecting his future production, which hopefully won't be with us. Unlucky or not, he gave up all those runs, and so EJ doesn't really have that high of a bar to reach for next season if he wants to replace that "production".

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 02:37 PM) The 4 years 70 million is about what I figured and I also figured Shark would bet on himself (because he's Shark!...) and turn those offers down. Now, if someone gives him 2 years 40 million, he'll probably take it because he can rehab his value and get that "lifetime" 6-8 year deal he no doubt thinks he's worth and covets. Personally I will be pretty miffed if we see Shark next year at 17.1 million. They have other holes that many could go to. Insert Johnson into the rotation he'll give you 3/4 the production most likely at 1/10th the cost. I don't want to know what 3/4 the production of a 4.87 ERA is, but I hope Johnson can do much better than that.

QUOTE (Brian @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 02:21 PM) Thanks for not answering the question. My apologies. Aside from Lester, Montero has 27 ABs, David Ross has 32 AB, Fowler has 14 AB, Austin Jackson has 133 AB, Strop has 2.1 IP, Tommy Hunter has 14.1 IP, Wood has 3.1 IP, Clayton Richard has 6.1 IP (didn't realize he pitched for us in the 2008 playoffs), Rodney has 10 IP, Hammel has 15 IP, Haren has 19.1 IP.