QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 3, 2015 -> 11:01 AM)
It's complicated and fuzzy. It's really anyone's race. Any of the four AL Central contenders can dominate if "everything goes according to plan," but none of them are well equipped to deal with any significant issues, such as a key injury or two or a star player not living up to expectations. So the team that wins will be the one that mostly "does what they think they'll do."
The Sox biggest issues are that (1) John Danks and Hector Noesi both suck, seriously, no matter how much we want them not to suck, so they're going to have to perform significantly better than what they are likely to perform in order to not hold us back (which definitely CAN but probably won't happen), (2) we're a "stars and scrubs" team, in that we rely heavily on our core players to provide transcendent, elite level performance in order to be successful, so if one of them sucks or gets hurt, we see a huge dropoff in production in the replacement (and just by the law of averages, usually SOMEONE gets hurt), and (3) players that do what Avisail Garcia has done are usually terrible, so he's not projected well. We know he's got the tools and he could very well buck the trends, but we have to admit that historical precedent shows us that it's unlikely he does so.
It's a vague answer, but it's also the beautiful part of this sport. Anyone can take this thing. Just rest assured that this team has a real shot this year, because that's what matters most.
Don't stress, LDF, it's baseball time!
Regarding the first issue, where does Rodon fit in here? I agree that if we're relying on Danks and Noesi for the whole season we're probably doomed, but if Rodon can come in and hold down the #4 spot we should fare much better, at least that's the hope. I see that ZIPS projects Rodon to strikeout everybody but to have a ton of control issues. How should we take projections on guys that have no ML experience?