OmarComing25

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 12:11 PM) Does this count if he is hurt since he is technically not in the playoffs? I guess he shouldn't count but figured he was part of that 24. Colon and Thompson (I may be missing someone else here) shouldn't technically count either because they're not on the playoff rosters.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 09:31 AM) I read where there are 24 ex-White Sox in the playoffs this year. So there is room for s***ty players on playoff rosters. I'm going to see if I can get them all. David Robertson NYY Tommy Kahnle NYY Todd Frazier NYY Jose Quintana CHC Adam Eaton WAS Alex Avila CHC Chris Sale BOS Chris Young BOS Chris Devenski HOU Austin Jackson CLE Eduardo Escobar MIN Bartolo Colon MIN Addison Reed BOS Tyler Clippard HOU Francisco Liriano HOU Brandon McCarthy LAD Trayce Thompson LAD Matt Albers WAS Gio Gonzalez WAS Alejandro De Aza WAS I'm still missing 4

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 09:43 AM) So he came in just below average. Keep in mind though that OPS overrates SLG and underrates OBP, the latter is far more important. Narvaez had a 100 wRC+ and the league average catcher had a 90 wRC+ so he was solidly above average with the bat for a catcher.

Hell of a performance by Robertson. Career high in innings, pitched more than both SP combined.

I'll be in Houston this weekend for a friend's wedding and I get in at noon on Thursday. I'm thinking of splurging for tickets for Game 1 to see Sale vs. Verlander. Decided to go for it. Got tickets near the 1st base dugout.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 2, 2017 -> 01:29 PM) For most of year I felt like this was going about as well as it could go, then the Rodon news. The bad: Rodon's shoulder Burdi's elbow Anderson's first half Fulmers first 4/5s of season Saladino The good: Improvement from virtually all pitching prospects (sans fulmer) Generally good health production way over expectations for AAA-Majors players that were not top prospects. (How many years did we bring up these players with not a lot of hype outwardly but decent AAA numbers and they just fell flat on their face. I expected a whole lot of Asche's and Jacob Mays, but everything after that was thrilling to me) We built up our prospects this year and basically had one flame out (fulmer) before becoming something to think about. That's good. Good list, I'd add Jones' injury to the bad. Before the season he was in our top 5 trade chips but now he has little to no value.

I'm a subscriber but I don't see WAR past the first decimal. And I assume your bet was just based on fWAR? Because Buxton's rWAR is 5.1.

Does anyone here watch Nathan For You? The season 4 premiere was fantastic. Might be the most convoluted scheme he's done yet.

For a shoulder surgery this is pretty much best case scenario, right?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 02:22 PM) Because, according to how they calculate "clutch," Aaron Judge has had the least clutch season of all time. Yeah but I'm not a big fan on how they calculate clutch, because they're comparing how a player performs in high leverage situations to his baseline performance. All the top "unclutch" seasons of all time are great hitters, and it makes sense that their performance would be worse in high leverage situations because opposing managers are going to be using their best relievers against them, whereas a manager might leave in a tired starter for one more batter if Alcides Escobar was at the plate. Judge's batting line in high leverage situations this year is .234/.345/.489, which is a big step down from his overall line but still pretty good. Meanwhile a guy like Kole Calhoun is batting .227/.368/.364 in high leverage situations and he has the 8th best clutch rating in baseball this year. Doesn't make much sense. It also doesn't help that the average amount of PA for players in high leverage situations per year is ~50-60 PA, which is just too small of a sample size. Adding or subtracting 1 or 2 HR from that sample would drastically alter the numbers.

QUOTE (Superstar Lamar @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 04:04 PM) any advantage to us if it is a three way tie for second (since we are teasing out all scenarios)? Tiebreaker is given to the team with the worse 2016 record, so the Phillies own the tiebreaker with us but we own the tiebreaker with the Tigers and Giants.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 12:20 PM) What do we think of the sample size though? Is it large enough to draw those conclusions? In ~1600 PA between Cuba and the minors he walked at a 13% clip, I think it's pretty safe to say that he's a guy who's going to take his fair share of walks.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 11:59 AM) Why not Delmonico? Davidson, Engel and Narvaez I certainly agree with Although Narvaez has elite plate discipline himself, if he can improve his framing I think he can be a useful future piece. Sure he has no power but he has a .375 OBP.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 11:45 AM) In all fairness, you're talking about like 2 guys in the long-run who are currently here who will likely be starters on our next good team. And one of them is known for his patience and ability to take walks.

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Sep 25, 2017 -> 12:06 AM) 4th pick would be a disappointment after that tear down. After the top3 there usually is quite a drop off in quality plus you lose a million of pool money. Don't get me wrong 4th pick isn't bad but it probably means you are looking for a 4th starter or average regular hitter rather than a star. That probably means turang and singer are off the board and those are probably the two guys that stand out. I actually looked back at the last 20 years of picks and was surprised at how much of a dropoff there was after 2, but with this upcoming draft I don't think it will be that big of a deal. There does seem to be a lack of consensus about the top guys, guys like Keith Law aren't too high on Singer (and I know stats aren't everything but his college stats this year are pretty underwhelming) and Longenhagen has said there are a lot of questions about Turang's bat and that he wouldn't take him at the top of the draft. There was a ranking posted in the minor league forum that doesn't have either of those guys in the top 5 draft prospects (Turang at #8 and Singer not in the top 10). Of course someone could break away from the pack next spring but right now this draft seems pretty deep and there doesn't seem to be much of a difference among the top group of guys.

QUOTE (turnin' two @ Sep 25, 2017 -> 01:00 PM) Depending on sources, runner on first and no out has about a 43% chance of scoring. Runner on 2nd no out is 63% (different sources have slightly different numbers, but it around 40% to around 60% seems pretty consistent (there is also about a 20 point jump for 3rd over 2nd). Obviously the CS% is a huge factor. With out doing any analysis on it, I would have to say that 80% success is excessive. If a guy is hitting on 2/3 steals that could be hugely beneficial to the team. Please, don't get too hung up on this. I know it isn't perfect. It is just an example running the numbers made up off the top of my head right now. But... For example, a guy with 600 PA and an OBP of .322 (last year's avg) would have reached base 193 times in that season. If he steals 20 bags and is caught 10 times, basically simulating that he had made an out in his PA instead of getting on, it would effect his OBP by .017 points (from .322 to .305). So, last year, league average SLG was .417. In 600 ABs that would equate to 250 total bases. Adding on those 20 stolen bases as total bases (basically moving singles to doubles) would move a player with a .417 SLG to a SLG of .450. So a guy with an OBP of .322 and SLG of .417 (OPS of 739) turns into a guys with an OBP of .305 and a SLG of .450 (755 OPS). If he is successful on 2/3 SB attempts he essentially raises his OPS .14 by virtue of those steals. In this rough draft example the risk of those SBs outweighs the risk of being caught 10 times, at least with my screwy way of accounting for things. I know game situation matters here as well. Just a rough example, but this team has a couple guys with fairly elite speed, if they could use it well enough, it could be a weapon. And this season, where win totals didn't really matter, was a great opportunity to work on base stealing skills. But OBP is more important than SLG. I'd rather have the .322 OBP and .417 SLG than the .305 OBP and .450 SLG.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Sep 25, 2017 -> 12:13 PM) No, but I bet they were not hurting their team. That was Jose Abreu's point though, it's all about the efficiency. Any base stealer stealing at a 90% clip is going to be helping his team.

Unless we go like 6-1 next week I highly doubt the Reds catch us, #4 is fine. There doesn't seem to be much separating the top 5 or so draft prospects right now anyway.

Great slide by Anderson.

15/16 for Anderson in stolen bases.

I wouldn't have minded a win on the back of a dominant Fulmer start, but damn we just got baseballed.

Hoskins with another big hit. 2-run double, Phillies up 4-2 in the 5th.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 21, 2017 -> 01:32 PM) My gut tells me somewhere around 76-79 wins. Under .500 over the first half of the season, around or above .500 in the second half. That's my hope. Let the first half play out how it will, and then when Eloy and Kopech join the team at the halfway point play competitive enough ball in the 2nd half that this can be used as a selling point to sign one of the big free agents (Arenado?) and start the competitive window in 2019.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Sep 21, 2017 -> 01:32 PM) There is absolutely no way Beer will fall outside of the top 10. He may be at the backend of that but his bat is unworldly. He won't fall far Given the recent dramatic shift in how teams value bat-only players these days I could definitely see him dropping that far.

If Astros hang on then the Sox would control their own destiny for the #1 pick.