OmarComing25

If you include baserunning value Eaton was 46th in offensive value in baseball in 2016, that's pretty good. No one is saying Eaton was an elite offensive force but he was a solid hitter who can get on base and a great baserunner and those guys aren't easy to find, as we all know from the last decade of offensive ineptitude. To say Tilson could come close to matching that is utter nonsense.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 12:26 PM) How do you know this is Robertson's low point? But you've already said that we couldn't get anything more than a salary dump for Robertson right now. So worst case scenario is we have to eat the money if he ends up being really bad, which really isn't that big of a deal. If all we're risking is the money, then it's a risk worth taking.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 11:39 AM) I dont how it stacks up against other guys but my gut tells me its bad for a closer to give up runs in 20% of their appearances. That's 1 in 5 times he's out there struggling. Since we've been doing the Allen-Robertson comparison Allen gave up runs in 14 out of his 67 appearances, which is... 21%.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 11:26 AM) How to Talk Baseball in 2017: 1) Pull up Fangraphs leaderboards 2) Regurgitate Allen definitely isn't an elite closer, but he's also definitely better than Robertson and no WAR figure calibrated to evaluate starting pitchers will convince me otherwise. Robertson had 4 games in 2016 where he gave up more than 1 run, Allen had 3, including his own KC-esque meltdown against our very own White Sox in August. Robertson allowed a .247 wOBA in high-leverage situations (30 IP) and a .277 wOBA with runners on base. Allen allowed a .306 wOBA (23 IP) in high leverage situations and a .283 wOBA with runners on base. I think Allen is better too, but those numbers don't support your theory that Robertson doesn't have the makeup to be a closer or tends to unravel when he gets into tight situations.

Also you still haven't really explained why Robertson is so bad anyway. Yeah his walk rate was really high last year but according to Pitch F/X he actually threw more pitches in the zone in 2016 than he did in 2014 and 2015, where his walk rates were 3.22/9 and 1.85/9. Seems pretty clear he was hurt a lot by our s***ty framing catchers. He's not an elite closer, but he's still a decent reliever.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 10:50 AM) That is one massive assumption for a pitcher who is very bad. If you think he's very bad then no team is going to want him anyway, so there's little downside to holding on to him until the deadline to see if he improves even marginally. So what's the problem?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 10:26 AM) Will he rank Kopech if he thinks he's a reliever? He had Kopech ranked #45 at midseason last year, and wrote that after seeing him in the AFL that he showed top of the rotation potential, so I don't think he sees Kopech as a reliever.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 10:05 PM) There's being a front office apologist and then there's defending the Shields trade. Even Rick Hahn's dog knew that was a bad trade the instant they made it, let alone now. You guys just aren't thinking long-term enough, the Shields trade will end up being one of Hahn's best moves. Hahn knew that Shields is set to have the worst season of all-time in 2017, where he'll give up at least 4 runs in every start (with the lone exception of him inexplicably dominating the Cubs again and striking out Bryant 4 times, but thankfully we still lose due to a badly misplayed flyball by Avi) and the Sox will lose every single game he starts. On the back of Shields' historic awfulness, the Sox and Padres will be tied going into the last game of the season. Moncada goes 5-5 and hits for the cycle but Big Game James comes through in the clutch again with a 4 HR performance. Despite being so young, Tatis Jr. has surprisingly tore up the minors and has earned a September call-up. The Padres enter the 9th inning down a run but start a rally with 2 outs. Tatis Jr. becomes a White Sox hero when he knocks in two runs with the game winning single, securing the #1 overall pick for the White Sox. He goes on to become a solid regular but Sox fans quickly forget about him when Seth Beer becomes the first non-Trout AL player to lead the league in WAR in nearly a decade in his rookie year, leading the Sox to the playoffs.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 04:01 PM) I don't even need the predictions threads. If you're willing to bet that the garbage over 30's vets inundating the Sox roster will GAIN value by the deadline then you're betting on some massive performances. Betting on mild improvements from Abreu/Frazier/Robertson isn't betting on massive performances. They don't need to be MVP-level to gain value. And if you really believe these players are garbage over 30 vets, then they currently have no value anyway and won't do much to help the team win, so holding on to them until the deadline is basically a wash anyway.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 10:50 AM) Does it look like they are trading everyone still? Also it was more like a month ago that I said that. If they do still unload everyone I'll go back to thinking they could have a high 2018 draft pick, but right now this is probably a 75+ win team. I'm just confused as to how you think Frazier/Quintana by themselves are the difference between 75 wins and a potential 120 loss season. Even with Quintana projections have the Sox as the 3rd worst team in baseball at the moment. That might be a bit low considering the impact Moncada/Lopez/Giolito could have when they come up, but I don't think it's far off. This team is bad, and as things stand I'm not sure any other AL team should be considered below us, even the Twins. In the NL I think the Padres, Reds and Brewers are the only teams I'd really put us above right now, but with the relative weakness of the NL I'm not even that confident about it.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 10:43 AM) Its time to let go of this delusion. Sox will be picking ~10th again. A week ago you were saying if the Sox traded Frazier and Quintana they would challenge the 2003 Tigers' record and now you're saying with those two they'll be picking 10th?

Can someone post his writeup of Tatis?

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 04:41 PM) Q is a #1 on many but not sure most teams. I would think the heavy favorites to meet in the 2017 World Series are the Red Sox and Cubs. Q is a #3 on both of them. Well he'd definitely be the #1 on KC, Minnesota, Toronto, Baltimore, Seattle, Oakland, LAA, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Miami, San Diego, and Colorado for sure. That's already half of the teams. I'd also put him #1 for Arizona, Pittsburgh, Houston, Tampa Bay and NYY (though they each have arguments the other way) and you could make a case for Texas as well. Detroit is not out of the picture too if Verlander is more like 2014-15 than the 2016 version. I'd say he's comfortably the #1 for most teams.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 08:54 PM) One guy has a reputation as being a great teammate and one has a pretty awful one Right, and it was a verbal disagreement, who cares. It's not like Frazier shanked Eaton.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 01:42 PM) I normally agree with this but I actually think it's wrong. Three 55 FV bats seem to have much higher value on marketplace. I agree, and I think it was Fangraphs that put out an article about how if you put prospects into buckets of 10 (1-10, 11-20, etc.), pitching prospects have historically been as valuable as hitting prospects ranked in the next bucket down due to the increased risk. So a 55 FV bat might well be as valuable as a 60 FV pitcher.

I'm a peak guy too, so Pedro is easily my #1. Longevity is nice and all but for best ever I think peak should win out.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jan 22, 2017 -> 11:51 PM) Umm nope. Then there is Verlander and Carrasco who have had injuries and I'm not sure I would rather have them Putting Fulmer in the top 20 is also pretty generous. Outside of ERA there was nothing that impressive about his numbers.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 22, 2017 -> 10:30 PM) No way you can say Q is a top 10 pitcher in MLB unless you are just an all out slave to WAR. Nothing against him, but he's not that guy. Top 20 is a bit of a different story, I think I could come up with 20 pitchers I'd rather have in 2017 tbh. Ok I'll bite, name 20.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 02:05 PM) They have Altuve, Correa and Springer. The rest really aren't that enthusing. The rest will all likely have wRC+ in the range of 105-110 if not more (with the exceptions of Gurriel and McCann probably being in the 95-100 range). Even if you're not that enthused about the rest, there aren't really any weak spots either.

I don't know, as much as I want the Astros to get desperate enough to get a deal done for Q, I feel like that kind of bias is leading posters here to underrate them. Their rotation is suspect and they could definitely use Quintana, but their offense and bullpen should be near the top of the AL. The Royals' rotation is even more suspect and this will probably be their weakest bullpen in years (I'd probably put it in the bottom half of the league at this point). The Tigers are still relying on a bunch of mid-30s players and have plenty of rotation concerns themselves. The Rangers' rotation is very top heavy and even with their top 2 Darvish has health concerns and Hamels is a year older after seeing his walk rate go up significantly. I also think their offense is pretty overrated. Seattle looks interesting but I still think they have more question marks than Houston does. I just don't see why any of these teams should be favored ahead of the Astros right now.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 02:41 PM) Buehrle far and away I think. I don't think he'll get in but he does have an argument. Bill James has said that 60 WAR is kind of the threshold to reach to have a legit shot. Buehrle is sitting at 51.9 fWAR. The 214 wins is a little low for most voters (I understand wins are a pretty garbage stat for pitchers but voters still look at it) and the ERA is a little high. He does have a 117 ERA+ though that does compare favorably to many Hall of Famers and bests quite a few. He also has a few of the key moment type things voters take note of like the perfect game and no hitter, the only guy to face the minimum 27 batters 3 times, once held the batters retired streak record, the remarkable durability and the streak of 10 win, 200 IP seasons. If I were a voter for homerism might cause me to vote for Buehrle. Looking at completely objectively he falls a bit short. Had he not retired early he could have made a run at 300 wins and would have a much better case but alas that did not happen. Buehrle does have 59.2 bWAR, which I think reflects his career better than fWAR because with his defense and ability to hold runners he was able to consistently outperform his FIP. I don't think he quite deserves it (one of the leaders of the Hall of Very Good though) but he's closer than a lot might think, far closer than Konerko anyway.

I think we would easily be #1 after a Quintana trade.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 03:43 PM) So I think there is a reasonable counterfactual that Sale's return may have diminished if you factor in knowledge of continued elevated performance of Turner/Bregman/Benintendi/Swanson and a wild card like Gary Sanchez. The great timing about last year included the 2015 draft featuring teams like the Astros and Red Sox in the top ten selecting good college hitters when they both expected playoff contention the next year. We got Moncada, and that's amazing. You don't see 70 scored prospects moved much. So I'm happy as hell. For instance, Dave Cameron yesterday said if Otani came over today he'd still be rated behind Moncada. But I do think packages like Giolito/Turner or Moncada/Benintendi would have been more likely than this offseason when those players had played their way in. The Astros, of course, may have always valued Bregman this high. So I guess if you really like some of these headliners like Albies/Tucker/Meadows/etc, then you should get them while they may be attainable. But if you think this crop isn't crazy and would rather follow a fast riser in July, I guess go do that. But a lot of top ten prospects happened to be on contending teams as surplus, it was an interesting time that probably closed for a bit. I think it was Eric Longenhagen who said that, and he is Fangraphs main prospect guy, so coming from him that makes it even better.

Fangraphs currently has the White Sox projected at third worst, 1.3 WAR ahead of the Brewers and 2.3 WAR ahead of the Padres. Trading Q and Frazier would easily put us as the worst, though I would probably agree with others that the Padres projection might be too rosy, they're going to be really bad. The hope is that the NL is bad enough that the Padres will pick up a few extra wins, while the AL is tough enough that we'll pick up a few extra losses.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 09:28 AM) I think Tanaka gets dealt in June/July for prospects (if he is healthy and doing good) and then they try to bring him back next off-season. I think the Yankees are going to be in the hunt all year so I don't see this happening.