Two-Gun Pete

Agreed. I would have been overjoyed if this was the offseason, and I preferred Suzuki over Conforto. Any of us could have seen the difficulty in trying market/move Kimbrel, given his shittiness here, his age, his obese option, and the labor unrest. None of what you or I or many other Soxtalk posters would have been all that different from RH's masterpiece of an offseason, from a financial standpoint. But it definitely would have strengthened the roster more than what they've done. So, it isn't cheapness, its stupidity.

Yeah, I've felt this way for a few years now. I definitely felt this way after the last TDL. Thanks for agreeing with me.

Either ego, or they thought that no one was watching what Kimbrel did with the SOX. Probably both.

Oh, now do RP contracts. Where does this FO rank in terms of big RP contracts, despite them having an established budget?

If you have, you've been less than explicit in that. That said, its silly to state that they couldn't use both. Kopech has 3 options left, so he could be (temporarily) sent to Charlotte to get slowly stretched out. Or, there is the reality that Kelly's IL stint exists, that Kopech could start in the pen, and transition to the rotation. Or, there is the reality of him being a tandem starter with Rodon or Keuchel. They simply lack the imagination to deploy their pitching assets as other teams can and do. Now, the 5th starter for a supposed contender, who has all of ~20 IP as a starter either has to miracle his ass to 140 IP this year, or he'll be used in tandem with Lopez/Velasquez. I'd much rather have a Rodon/Kopech tandem than a Kopech/Velasquez tandem. Alas, RH just had to keep Kimbrel instead.

Everyone understands Rodon's injury risk. Yet, Kopech also has missed time regularly since being traded here. Its the second part that you've not similarly acknowledged. Its also the part that is risky to this team's chances, because he's never successfully completed even 100 IP at this level. If he cannot provide enough IP for this team, that can certainly lead to more Lopez/Stiever/Lambert/Velasquez starts, which will almost certainly suck.

I think that, despite your background, people disagree with you because you speak out of both sides of your mouth. On the one hand, Rodon, who has pitched well and provided both 5 WAR & >100 IP in 2021 was "too risky" for a QO. But OTOH, the guy whose been injured out of the pen (Kopec), kept getting ouchy when they tried extending him in 2021 should be counted on in 2022. This is one reason why people disagree with you. It's a sort of blind spot for you. The other thing is that time is linear. What this means is that who is on the 26 man/rotation on OD is often different at the TDL, which can be different at the post season. IOW, had they retained Rodon, the solution would have been simple: 1. OD: Rodon in rotation, Kopech stretching out in AAA 2. Around May 31st or so, or if Rodon gets ouchy, or Keuchel starts shitting his pants: Recall Kopech Easy-peasy. Rodon and Kopech together could have provided the IP and WAR this rotation needed. Only one or the other is/was too high an injury risk. OTOH, Kimbrel provides nothing for this roster.

It IS insanity to keep a piece that solves zero problems, especially at that price. But I don't agree that you could then, or can now justify Kimbrel, when there were then and are now bigger holes to fill. RH trading for Kimbrel is like sending your kid to the store for a gallon of milk, but he stupidly buys milkduds instead. You end up not getting the thing you needed, AND your household now has fewer resources to get what it ACTUALLY needed. Keeping Kimbrel NOW is like keeping the milkduds instead of forcing your stupid kid to return them. Well, thats just wrong. For a team that clearly has a budgetary limitation, picking up the option inhibited other, and more crucial needs. There can be no defense for either the trade, or the Kimbrel/Rodon choices.

It was an issue because, for one, Kimbrel solved/solves zero problems. For two, it apparently deferred sction on other roster issues, while available options went off the board. It is and was, fucking stupid to trade for him, and then, to pickup the option. This, exactly. It seems so simple, but they make it so fucking hard on themselves. Other teams seem to be able to assemble capable bullpens without blowing $50MM, or squandering high draft picks. It takes vision, a plan, and proper allocation of resources and priorities. And yet, here we are, hoping for a last-minute miracle to salvage the offseason.

Tampa, our SOX's FO's baseball intellectual superiors, already tried this a few years ago. It didn't work. When they were trying to entirely avoid a 3rd time through a lineup for their SPs, their pen got burned out, and they fell out of contention. They discovered that you need some length, SOMEWHERE, to be able to get through 162. Given that Kopech will be IP limited, and Crochet hasn't been stretched out/tried as a multi-inning guy, it's irresponsible for them to have not included this in their now-$50MM bullpen. Also, intelligent FOs allocate resources to close holes in the roster. A cost-controlled lineup should have afforded them the opportunity to add a RFer, but here we are.

Fixed. ?

You got in before my edit, but 27% is the league high % spent on RPs. Even without Kimbrel, the theoretical 19.7% is the highest in MLB. The other thing that you're willfully ignoring is that none of the recent signees are multi-inning types that can substantially lighten the load on the starting rotation. So even the makeup of the pen is questionable, unless you trust and believe in Lopez. And thats even before you consider how TLR & Katz USE their BP. Last season, Sox Relievers pitched the fewest IP in MLB.

Unfortunately, this is what happens when you squander (currently) 27% of your budget on RPs that can't play the OF or 2B. Yes, this is far and away the highest % of RP spending in the league. Even IF RH can remove all of Kimbrel’s contract, the SOX would STILL have the highest % of team total payroll on RPs in MLB.

Holy shit, I had no idea. As you said, this is indeed worrisome. Well, this is what happens when your FO are too stupid and/or too lazy to put in the work necessary when evaluating an overall offseason strategy. Spending big on a guy with massive handedness split differences i inefficient. That said, he's basically the only option left, so we should all try to find something to like about him, I guess...

If memory serves, two things impact future injury likelihood more than other factors: 1. Prior injury history (Think: Eloy, Robert, Engel, Grandal, Kelly, and others) 2. Age (Think: Harrison, Abreu, Grandal, Lynn, Keuchel, and others) I am a man of faith, but faith without action is dead. Failing to buttress an OF with young talent, but ALSO, plenty of injury history is inviting disaster. Failing to secure a 2B who has a higher likelihood of positive WAR than a geezing geezer is inviting disaster. Failing to reinforce a rotation with plenty of age and a lack of depth is inviting disaster. I have faith, but one doesn't have to squint too much to see a repeat of AAAA types all over the OF. One doesn't have to squint too much to see too many Leury starts at 2B. And one doesn't have to squint too much to see too many Lopez/Lambert/Stiever starts. I get that we have talent, and that the offseason isn't done-yet. But we're running out of time and options. FFS, I'd praise RH if he landed Conforto and, I dunno, Teheran or Pineda? I'd be HAPPY to eat crow if they admitted their fuckups, and fixed them. We'll have to see.

So, in thinking about this, you've got a 35 year old fat fuck, another 34 year old, and 2 TJS recoveries in the rotation. Oh yeah, plus the Glory of Vincent Velasquez. In the OF, 2 of your starters have injury histories. Your 4th OFer has an injury history. Then, you've got your galloping 1B Mastodons in RF. No worries there, amirite? In the IF, you've got an older guy at 1B, but HUZZAH! Plenty of 1B depth! At 2B, a DFA candidate is the starter, and two stars at SS and 3B. The pen is well-provisioned, but I guess your one multi-inning type is Lopez, and then we're hoping for Crochet to be the other, without really having stretched him out yet. The point to ask here is not, "are we solid at 7 of 9 positions," but rather, "how close are we to having multiple AAAA-types starting?" Given the injury histories at certain positions, and given the lack of depth elsewhere, this roster isn't too many injuries or DFAs away from being ordinary. They gotta get another OFer and another SP, IMO. If they dawdle, it'll be Billy Hamilton as OF depth later. If they mosey their way further, get ready for plenty of Lambert shellings.

Yeah, you (and more importantly, RH) are wrong. They could and should have addressed the holes in the everyday lineup first. And though I agree that pitching is a priority, it should have behooved them to get a better SP, rather than a fuckton of RPs.

The scrubs are having the offseason that I had hoped the SOX to have. Yes, Jack there are questions with Villar's glove. But when you're scraping the bottom of the barrel for 2B talent, they could have gone for a glove, or for a LHH/SH bat. Given last year's OPS by SOX 2Bmen, I would have rolled dice on a LHH/SH 2B. Instead, they went for "energy," or whateverthefuck Grampian Josh has.

I dunno... Some posters saw the shitty defense, and 28th ranked OPS by this team's RFers from last year and actually want the same shit rolled out there again. I've been on Suzuki’s side since he was posted. But if this FO didn't want to bother to do the homework on him, FFS, even Pederson would have been an upgrade. Now? WTF knows...

I'm glad they looked at these numbers at the TDL, and said to themselves, "Yeah, we need a closer!" Then, before the lockout, they looked at those numbers AGAIN, and said to themselves, "Yeah, we need another RP!" They then had 99 fucking days to fully study, absorb, and comprehend those numbers. After the lockout, they once again looked at those numbers, and they then told themselves, "Yeah, we need another RP!" Look, I know you don't want to ever criticize RH, because he's such a fucking genius. But, I'm just gonna reiterate what I thought back at the TDL. That MAYBE, just MAYBE, they overvalue RPs.

I think that's even worse: They had a further 99 days to re-calibrate and to re-adjust their views on the market. And what? A pre-injured RP and a 2B who's probably a DFA candidate is all they could do? FFS, even with the initial stumbles, the 99 days should have given them time to get their heads and asses rewired.

Occam's razor mandates that they got caught with their pants down. They HAD TO have known the budget before they decided to pickup Kimbrel/not offer Rodon. Even before the new CBA, a prudent man would have known that Kimbrel's obese option could have squeezed the budget. And thus, prevented swift action on bigger priorities, such as an everyday OFer, or desperately needed SP depth. (Rodon could have been that depth if he accepted, or if he rejected, there would have been the CBT space to maneuver.) And yes, while the "ideal options" of Conforto or Bryant were going to be expensive, Suzuki was in their price range, and FFS, even $6MM for an actual MLB-caliber Pederson is fucking affordable all 30 MLB teams. Instead? Another $41MM on RP contracts, and $5.5MM on a RHH fossil for 2B is the best they could do? They did a poor job planning, they've squandered resources, and prioritized the wrong things, full stop.

Dude, just by being contrarian, they stumbled onto a market inefficiency WRT Pods and Iguchi. Costs for pitching was suppressed, and the Bullpen had a collective synchronous career year. Dye took a discount to be here based on the principle of him keeping his word, and AJP's value was suppressed after he had a tough year in SF. Neither of these things would happen today. It was the alignment of good fortune, moreso than good design, in retrospect. Don't get me wrong, I will forever be happy with the WS win. But there was scant overall FO strategy that led to that banner.

I disagree. Hes old, and Father Time is invincible. Hes not a plus glove, and he's not a better fit, given his RH bat. They didn't have to sign a top player for the position, if they were serious about improving the overall talent level of the roster. They could have chosen a glove-first type, or a LHH/SH bat to at least get a player that fit. Harrison is none of those things. Yeah, I agree. Miller OPSed .780 v RHP for a career. Villar hit 15 HR v RHP last year. If you wanted a glove, Simmons has a better defensive profile than Harrison. Kimbrel may well be traded. But the return will be scant, and/or cost cash to go with him. Every team has to sometimes pickup a reclamation project, or the odd utility player. The good FOs know when and where to get them, and how to get them at a proper price. SF just got Pederson (30 year old projected for ~1.8 FWAR) for $6MM; RH gets 34 year old Harrison (projected for 0.9 fWAR) for $5.5MM. So far this offseason, I continue to be disappointed in RH's work.

Don't disagree. But it's idiotic the way they've lavished resources on the bullpen, while not bothering to complete the OF, or to find more lineup balance, or to deepen SP depth. Other teams that are in the SOX's payroll class have fewer obvious holes. It ain't "the budget." Its pure stupidity by this FO.