Two-Gun Pete

At $44MM/2? Agreed. But $18.9MM/1 should have been a slam dunk. Even with his injuries, because of the existence of Kopech and his IP limitations.

This is a fair argument. But let's take the example of the (non-TOR), but recently departed Carlos Rodon: His QO was what, $18.9MM? Even if he suggests a 50% loss of production, thats still 2.45 fWAR. At today's $/WAR cost in the FA market, hed still easily be worth the $18.9MM. "But what if he gets hurt," you say? Easy: You insure the contract, so you get some of the cash back, and start the year with Kopech in AAA to slowly get stretched out. (You could also have possibly recovered the year of lost control, if memory serves.) Then, you could have later brought Kopech up to replace Rodon if Rodon got hurt. That said,you are correct. A TOR SP does come with a premium that could erode cost-efficiency if things go sideways. (See: Keuchel, or Bauer)

That's exactly the point, which the book Moneyball covered a generation ago (and who got the idea from statheads long before that): RPs don't pitch enough to amass WAR in a meaningful way. On a dollar-for-dollar basis, its more efficient to allocate payroll resources into everyday players. Whats more, RPs' volatile tendencies in performance make it difficult to accurately predict who will and who won't be great bets. Yes, due to their specialized roles,RPs are necessary. But they're not the talismanic items this FO believes them to be.

Oh my God, stop "whining" about Kimbrel!

What, so you can't do arithmetic now? Also, I'm not the only one "whining" about the BP outlays. We can drink in the glory of Keuchel and Lambert starts in July, because the overallocated payroll into RPs now. Here, I'll help you out with a word problem: According to the link I've now provided to you thrice, the SOX total payroll is $173MM (not including bennies), with Kimbrel. Assuming RH works miracles, and dumps all glorious $16MM of Kimbrel: $173MM - $16MM = $157MM. From the link I've provided to you, without Kimbrel, the BP spending is at $34.5MM. $34.5MM / $157MM = 21.9% spent on the BP. League average is 11.79% Better? Enjoy your cruise.

I'd rather spend it on a TOR SP, or I dunno, Semien when he was available, or yes, Conforto or Suzuki. RPs are indeed important, but they don't produce as much fWAR as everyday players. Were they closer to say, $20-ishMM on the BP, that's still well above the league average outlay. But that would also mean that Conforto might already be here, or a proper replacement for Rodon could have been signed.

Thank you "Ceasey."

I'm glad I fill your heart with joy as you traverse the open seas. Once again, I'll provide you with the source data Courtesy of Spotrac. For argument's sake If, IF they can dump all $16MM of Kimbrel (which I doubt they can, but IF), they will spend $34.5MM, which is all of $800k less than SD. League average is $13.89MM for an entire BP. You can peruse the link, but it is clear that this org appears to be overallocated into RP salaries, even without Kimbrel.

As optiona disappeat from the market, I posed the question as a check-in. You're an educator, if memory serves. Consider my question a "mid term" of what this FO has accomplished so far. As a reminder, our enemies have made additions, both those that are inside the ALC, and across the league.

Well, the rotation is minus 4.9 fWAR from last season. I'm not seeing a whole lot of evident options to shore that up in the market. Unless Kopech is more durable than I believe him to be, I think this roster is diminished from 2021. Absent that, we're also hoping on better health from the rest of the roster, which we were doing, in any case. Oh, I like it: Answering a question with a question. I'm game. Ill tell you that their work this offseason has been heretofore disappointing. It doesn't inspire confidence that they will make a sea change in GM performance. It'll take a Suzuki or Conforto to substantially improve the overall talent level of this roster, IMO. We'll have to see. Now, as I'd asked: What do you see in the additions that leads you to believe that this roster is better than the one from 2021?

Ok. If they can remove all $16MM of Kimbrel, but then add back Kelly's $8.5MM, guess what: They're still 3rd in MLB in BP spending. Don't believe me? Here. Spotrac says so. But again, that assumes that the rest of the league believes that there's any threat of Kimbrel still being here, and thus, RH has negotiating leverage in trade What were you saying about "trolling," again? Thanks. Hope the cruise is going well.

Thats insightful. Thank you.

I know, right?

And thats fair. What do you see in the additions that leads you to believe that this roster is better than the one from 2021? Honest question.

Hey, as I said, I'm hopeful. I'm just not seeing it, yet.

1. Do we have 4 quality starters? Do we have even 5 guys all capable of 140 IP, and not shitting their pants? TBH, I'm not sure. 2. I'm not criticizing them. But, here's a novel idea: If RH/KW stop fucking up, then yes, posters can stop ripping them. But, if they keep shitting the bed, is it ok to make mention that what they've done is suboptimal? Or should we all throw a fucking ticker tape parade for everything they do?

Ok, so you don't like the way, based on the info I've provided? Is there anything else? Because honestly, thats as negative as I've ever seen you go on RH. Now: Let. It. Go. Insofar as "only having 1 SP that will pitch the whole season," how does LAD do it? Why can THEY have (if memory serves) 9 pitchers with > 10 starts, but the SOX can't? In terms of TLR/Katz altering their "strategery" WRT pitcher usage, one wonders if TLR still has the neuroplasticity at 77 years old to think differently. I doubt it, but since we all have to be positive here, I say that "I'm hopeful."

Now, I'm reminded to not question the FO. I mean: Let. It. Go. So, I won't criticize them. Rather, I'll point out that they're relying on nothing going wrong with SPs 1-3, either from injury or ineffectiveness. SP #4 is, as you say, Keuchel. SP #5 is either a guy who hasn't provided multiple IP with regularity, or the AAAA gang. So, instead of criticizing the FO, I'll hope that TLR and Katz will use this vaunted and expensive BP more than they have in 2021. Godspeed.

I like your positivity. However, TLR and Katz used the fewest IP in MLB on the BP last season. They don't use openers. They don't split starts. They'll have to really alter their "strategery" WRT usage patterns. Especially with ouchy Kopech, and a pile of AAAA types on the periphery of the rotation. Oh, and let's hope that Lance Lynn, at 35 years old, and Keuchel at 34 years old can kick Father Time's ass this year.

1. Kopech, for as talented as he is, has never shown the ability to start at this level. Rodon has, and to good effect. They're both injury risks, but you've been more emphatic about one over the other, while ignoring their track records. Not impugning you in any way, but rather, pointing out what could be a blind spot for you. 2. The 2021 SOX BP pitched the fewest IP in MLB. Yet, they're the 2nd highest compensated group in the league. The rules of asset allocation suggest that this is not efficient, regardless of their effectiveness. 3.Here you go. Hes 34 going on 35. Hes a RHH journeyman projected to provide 1.2 fWAR. His glove is middling. Hes a more expensive token. For me, if it was Miller or Villar, you could at least squint and say that those 2 are LH and SH bats, respectively. 4. They subtracted 4.9 fWAR from the starting rotation, and are (I guess) wishing on Keuchel/Lopez/Lambert/Stiever taking quantum leaps forward. They're hoping (i guess) that Kopech to not only stay healthy, but to fo something hes never done before. They're hoping that Kopech can provide a lot more IP at this level than hes ever done before. They've added a token 2B who doesn't help defensively, or hit LH. They're not done adding, but it doesn't look promising so far. I guess TL;DR; I have my doubts. Now, you were saying that you criticized exactly what, now? Thanks.

I'm curious as to exactly what you criticized, BTW. You rightly fear Rodon"s injury history, but does Kopech not also have an injury history? At least Rodon showed that he's a SP; Kopech has all of what, 8 starts to his name? And again, this is great. A 35 year old 2B, and a couple of relievers so far.

I did not criticize them. I said it was good. RH is good at this GM'ing thing. Thank God for getting more relievers.

I salute your dedication to protecting this FO at all costs. I support you, sir.

I'm not criticizing. 25% on a bullpen is good. Giving away 4.9 fWAR for free in your rotation is good. It's all good.

Nah, 25% of your payroll on a bullpen that pitches fewer IP than your peers is the way to go.