Two-Gun Pete

I have my doubts. Don't forget, in addition to Kimbrel having sucked a horse's ass for most of the past 3 or so seasons, hes old as shit. Whats more, you're placing your faith in the mouthbreathers that fucking couldn't figure out that Rodon > Kimbrel. I mean, it's the 1st day of spring training, and I'm more pissed off than during the lockout...

Incorrect. It will likely cost cash to have Kimbrel fuck off, because no one's taking all $16MM.

I would have liked Stoman @ his price, but then we have the shittiest manager in the bigs right now. And now, here we are: Kimbrel's in the roster, but we have a gaping hole in the rotation. Congratulations!

This. Stoopid shit like this is why I really would like those imbeciles fucking fired. If/when they further shorten the window by overpaying in trade for some random SP mediocrity, I'll get amped up more. Thise guys are just moronic sometimes.

Yeah, I understand that Kikuchi's projected for 2-ish fWAR. But these are the dregs you scrape up when your FO moronically trades for a closer they don't need, then picks up his obese option before a CBA war. With all the actually-good SPs gone in the pre-lockout phase of the offseason, its either sign a 2-ish fWAR guy like Kikuchi, or trust these geniuses to not shit their pants in trade. Again.

Possibly? There's more to Kikuchi than that; Seattle had a multiyear option on him that they rejected. Its possible that he wanted a change of scenery. And why would they want a "lesser pitcher than Rodon?" Because Kopech ain't gonna give you 140IP this season, and Keuchel and Lopez both probably suck. Kikuchi probably isn't as good as Rodon, but he's probably better than Keuchel and Lopez, and can get you more IP than Kopech can in 2022. Thats why.

Fuck. Hated the no-QO then, hate it now. Yusei Kikuchi, come on down, I guess.

I want no part of Castellanos; despite the bat, he's yet another 1B/DH type posing as an OFer. I'd be good with Conforto or Suzuki, but a lack of actual OFers in the roster has sucked.

Exactly what I'm thinking as the fit for this roster. And no, I don't have any info in terms of the SOX being linked to him. They'd be morons to not be at least interested, IMO.

One other thing on Suzuki being compared to Matsui: Baseball Reference shows him as having stolen 25 bases as recently as 2019, but he also got caught 16 times. Hideki Matsui never had a double-digit SB year in NPB or MLB. What this means is that Suzuki has far more footspeed and athleticism, both in the OF, and on the basepaths than Matsui, who was more station to station. So, a comp could be: a younger, more athletic Hideki Matsui with a gold glove.

This Link spells out one reason why I favor Suzuki. Here's a comp from that link: Seiya Suzuki's career NPB numbers (age 27): .316/.415/.572; .987 OPS, 170 wRC+. Hideki Matsui career NPB numbers (age 29): .304/.413/.582; .996 OPS, 168 wRC+. Pretty similar, right? Except two things: Suzuki's only 27, and unlike Godzilla, Suzuki is a Gold Glover. Matsui's lack of a glove was his Achilles heel. What would Matsui be worth if he could actually field?

Ok. Earlier you said "a sure thing," which I dont think applies to any one of the principals under consideration here. I'm just not "locked in" on "Conforto-or-bust," because he, like Suzuki, has his own inherent downside risks. I AM, however, dead-set against trading for a SP, given our system's weakness, and given what's on offer in the trade and FA markets right now. IOW, there isn't an available SP trade that is clearly superior to just using cash on a FA. Each and every one of the SPs available range from ~1.0-ish fWAR just-a-guy-types, to Rodon's projected ~3.0-ish fWAR. All of them are mid-rotation types that probably aren't going to move the needle a lot, but whose contributions lie more in Keuchel/Lopez/Stiever/Lambert avoidance, and Kopech preservation. Now, if you could convince me that there's a 4+ fWAR SP available in trade for what we now have, let us know. I just don't see it. Just use cash.

And this as well.

Ok, not to be a dick, but you set it up so perfectly: Yeah Ohtani really sucks at baseball, amirite? That aside, Suzuki is a star who is 27, not some 30+ year old who may or may not adjust. At the same time, pretending that Conforto didn't have a poor 2021, and who comes pre-injured (given our other 3 pre-injured OFers in Eloy, Robert, and Engel), and who would also have to adjust to a new league is burying the lede. Both Conforto and Suzuki come with upside potential, and downside risks. WRT Bassitt, ignoring that he's 33 years old, and that his track record is all of 2 seasons as a full time starter, and whose track record is skewed by him pitching in Oakland is similarly burying the lede. Both Bassitt and Rodon come with upside potential, and downside risks. All that said, I'd rather have Suzuki than Conforto, and just use cash instead of trading for a 33 year old whose numbers just might be artificial.

Holy shit, I just looked. JD was -1 DRS in '05, but by '07, he was -27!!! In a corner OF position.

Thats entirely a fair position. I think that Suzuki's GOLD glove and penchant for drawing walks ALONE is worth ~1.5 fWAR. I agree that there are risks in his hit-for-average and hit-for-power tools adjusting to MLB. But if he hits as ZIPs thinks he will, SURPLUS VALUE, BABY!!!!! At age 27, I think its more likely that he WILL be able to adjust than he won't; this isn't some 30+ year old like Fukudome trying to adjust to MLB. This is a star just entering his prime. (Plus, it'll fuck over bahsten and the scrubs and any other enemies that want to land Suzuki.) OTOH, if he doesn't, his smaller contract (estimated at ONLY $11MM/per) and Glove/eye mean that it won't be totally shambolic.

I'm thinking Rodon will be $20MM-ish/per, which would then mean that you'd have to go with Suzuki at ~$11MM-ish/per. I get that Rodon precludes Conforto, but I like Suzuki better in any case. But then, you also have trade assets to use at the TDL. Trading for Bassitt takes trade assets out of our pocket, and in any case, he's not all that different that players that just cost cash. Especially when he'd be pitching away from Oakland if he came here.

1. Incorrect. Justin Verlander was in the middle of a 4.1 fWAR season at age 34. He went for 5.4, 3.1, and 3.2 fWAR in the 3 seasons prior to then. So no, Verlander wasn't in any sort of decline as Shields was. 2. I think the SOX FO didn't do any sort of projections at the time, or ignored them, or a combination. Back then, KW had a maddening George Custer-like idiocy to always go for it, when prudence dictated otherwise. 3. This is outright false. Shields was traded on 4 June. In the 10 games prior to the trade, they'd gone 2-8, including a 7 game losing streak. In the 15 games before June 4, they went 5-10. They were clearly Free Fallin'. 4. In Shields' age 33 season, he went for 0.8 fWAR. That means his decline was already beginning the year before the SOX made that moronic trade. Also, he came pre-injured, which was additionally stoopid.

Here's the other part of the context of that trade: 1. James Shields was 34 years old, so he was already in decline. 2. That year's white sox team was projected for a losing season before the year started. 3. After a miraculous start to 2016, the Robin Ventura-lead 2016 White Sox were predictably in free fall in the weeks leading up to them shitting their pants in trade (again). In other words, they were clearly in regression. 4. SD's ownership was publicly ripping Shields for turning into a turd, which SHOULD HAVE trashed any negotiation leverage their FO might have had. 5. Cleveland were projected to be division leaders, and after a hesitant start, came on fire to crush the ALC, as predicted. In other words, they regressed to THEIR mean. Despite ALL OF that, they still made a moronic trade, instead of selling pieces to look to another window to add to Abreu/Sale/Q.

Thats absolutely fair, IF he'll sign for $25MM. But I believe he'll come in closer to $20MM/per. But, my back of the envelope arithmetic had the SOX having ~$15MM CBT space before the new CBA. The new CBT adds $20MM in space. Assuming it takes $10MM to get Kimbrel to fuck off, the SOX will have ~$41MM in CBT space. The SOX could use "Just Cash" to do one of the following: (Assume Tepera @ $5MM/per, and a 2B token at $2MM/per.) A. Kikuchi for $2/20MM, Suzuki for 5/$55MM, or $10MM + $11MM + $7MM = $28MM. B. Conforto for 4/$80MM, Kikuchi for $2/20MM, or $20MM + $10MM + $7MM = $37MM C. Suzuki for 5/$55MM, Rodon for 3/$60, or $11MM + $20MM + $7MM = $38MM. IMO, it can (and should) be done for "Just Cash." Just use cash. Save the trade assets for the TDL.

Just cash means that you still have trade assets to later replace HIM if need be, or to close any other holes that will inevitably appear over the course of the season. Trading away scarce trade assets means you don't have that flexibility and downside protection. Just cash is a cogent plan; trading away scarce assets leads to "hopes and wishes," as in: "I HOPE no one gets hurt." Or: "I HOPE no one underperforms." Or: "I WISH we still had trade assets to fix this new hole in our roster." Or: "I WISH we had a piece to go vulture some other team's firesale."

Re-read what was written. I didn't make the strawman argument you just posted. I wrote: See?

I'd be perfectly fine with that. LAD routinely build a rotation that has more than 5 guys start more than 10 times in a season. We need the depth, IMO.

Understood. And I've been critical of Rodon in the past, because for much of his tenure here, he looked like a two-legged hippo who didn't take care of his body. To his credit, since the surgery Rodon has looked more fit, as a professional with any sort of pride should look. But Bassitt also has downside risks to his future performance that can't be ignored. Whats more, Bassitt will cost trade assets and cash. Rodon just costs cash. Just use cash.

Fair point. But I think Rodon wearing down was more due to him being away from full time duty than any more recent injury. I'd still take him over Bassitt.