Two-Gun Pete

Couple things: 1. All bullpens are volatile, with peaks and valleys in their performances. 2. That bullpen had shown a better body of work than the collection of AAAA talents and 1B/DHs trying to play OF; this meant that the OF needed more help than the bullpen. 3. No, I didn't think they would win because there were more talented teams than they; this meant it was better to keep the trade powder dry, than to go all-in, George Custer-style. 4. They bought a closer who had never setup, not a setup man. Which means either they didn't do their homework on Kimbrel's fit, or they didn't ask Hendriks if he'd be willing to setup. So no, the numbers showed that a closer wasn't among their top needs, and what they did need, they didn't get.

I'll disagree. The numbers showed that there was no need for a closer. Or if you like, it certainly wasn't among the top ~3 or so needs. Now, if this org had had LAD's deep MiLB system, and/or LAD's deep pockets, sure: they could afford to take a gamble on Kimbrel. But this org has neither of those things. It predictably turned out as poorly as it did. And here we are, waiting for the CBA to be finished, so that Kimbrel's tumor of a contract can be removed from the payroll.

Ok. Looking at Fangraphs, the 2021 White Sox relievers pitched the fewest IP in MLB by 7/30/2021. Despite that, they had produced the 5th most fWAR in MLB. They were 10th in FIP by the time the Kimbrel trade was executed. By contrast, CWS 2B produced the 20th most fWAR by 7/30/21. CWS RFers produced the 17th most fWAR. So, in looking at the numbers, there was no need for a closer, full stop.

Maybe? Or maybe not. But really, who gives a shit? Without Kimbrel's $16MM on the payroll, they would have had the CBT space to sign Conforto already. Or add the SP that this team needs. And maybe, with Madrigal in the roster, we wouldn't be arguing over who sucks less at 2B, Villar or Miller. Actions have consequences. Stupid actions also have consequences, especially if your org has a budget.

Eh, the SOX traded 2 cheap, controllable pieces, and paid ~$8MM last year (+ whatever they'll have to pay to trade him away) for a closer that they didn't need. IOW, for a piece that wasn't a top need, and that wouldn't have made the 2021 SOX better than Houston, LAD, or SF. Meanwhile, it reduced the 2022 team's war chest for trades, while restricting the 2022 team's financial flexibility. Moreover, it revealed that this FO continues to overvalue and over-allocate resources into the BP. That this FO made this deal, this far into their tenures suggests that they haven't learned anything. In sum, it still stings that they made this deal, when it made zero baseball or business sense. It stings MORE when you consider that they easily should have known better by now. Whether or not Heuer and/or Madrigal become great is entirely immaterial. I think most of us would take an injured Heuer and a punching Judy Madrigal on this roster over Kimbrel and his obese salary right now.

A. And more cogently, theres nothing "anti Andrew Vaughn" in stating that he hasn't yet fulfilled the entirety of his potential, yet. B. Because he hasn't yet reached his potential, if he isn't the best option for the roster, yes he should finish his training in AAA. C. (And this is important) I've never said I've wanted him to be a platoon DH. Don't believe me? Feel free to search my positing history. If I haven't posted such a thing, feel free to reverse yourself. That aside, given the lack of a RFer, I'd rather not also open up a hole in LF until RF is solved first. But in no way do I endorse Vaughn or Sheets for OF at this point.

This is silly. No one is "anti Andrew Vaughn." He simply hasn't been good v RHP yet, and he isn't an OFer. There's nothing "anti" anyone about that statement.

Vaughn is yet another non-OFer that they hide by playing him inches away from the warning track. He may or may not be better than Jimenez. Also, SSS, but Vaughn's wRC+ v RHP is in the 60s; Eloy's at least league-average. But Vaughn's questionable range and questionable bat v RHP are absolutely not solutions to replace Eloy.

Blind squirrel, meet nut. Also: Kimbrel, Shields, Samardzija, Mazara, Durham, and many others, too!

Yeah, I don't like the idea of blowing a hole in the roster to "make a trade." Trading away Eloy, or moving him off LF without a proper replacement is bad business. (And no, neither Vaughn, nor Sheets are OFers.) They've already done this at another position, and we'll all feast our eyes on shitty/more expensive 2B play this season. Also, I hate the idea of trusting this FO to not get robbed in trade to begin with. YMMV.

Hey look, its Jack doomposting at 2 or 3AM! Never would have bet on that happening, amirite?

I'll agree that Rodon has performed the best out of the SPs on offer. I'll also agree that acquiring a SP for just money is exactly what they should do. Trading for one would be stupid to do, due to the lack of assets, and that they probably can't get a much better SP in trade than can be gotten in FA. I'll disagree that Rodon would automatically want to stay here. A player does NOT hire Boras if he's interested in staying with the White Sox, both due to this org's need for "hometown discounts," AND Boras' need to squeeze every penny out of every contract he can sign. I'll also agree that, given Rodon's long and enduring injury history, there are reasons for pause. Whether or not he's healthy matters more than all else, insofar as him being re-signed here.

Trading anything other than sending Kimbrel away is a bad idea for two reasons: 1. (And I can't emphasize this enough) KW/RH will get humiliated and crushed in trade. They will lose. They've proven this time and again, and yes, selling high on a piece (Sale/Q/Eaton) is not at all akin to them trying to add a piece. 2. They have next to nothing to trade away, and there will be needs this TDL, next offseason, and next TDL. Trading for things that you can buy NOW for just cash is stupid. Save your trade ammo for future gunfights. Now, I'd love the Kimbrel for Segura + idea. But, it probably won't happen, because Kimbrel has little value/is old and expensive, and KW/RH have no negotiating leverage. Unless some other team has a pile of injuries, SOX fans should get comfortable with the idea of having to eat some of Kimbrel’s salary to have him fuck off.

See, you buried the lede in a long 'graph. But I'll answer that for you: Yes, if there's a RFer signed, and both Sheets and Vaughn are here, TLR most certainly will platoon them. He still manages as if its 1985, to wit: One of the fewest IP by a bullpen; Billy Fucking Hamilton getting 135 PA; and yes, non-MLB caliber bats in Mendick and Zavala getting PA at DH. So, despite these realities, posters here want to dream that a 77 year old fossil is going to magically start managing like a 21st Century manager? Ludicrous. The only way to save TLR from himself is to remove certain players from his purview: Bring only one of Sheets OR Vaughn north. And yes, if Kopech is ever going to become a SP, get him the fuck away from TLR to start the season. TLR can't help himself. It isn't his fault, he's just too backwards in his thinking, TBH. I'll have to correct you: Sheets & Vaughn are NOT major league OFs. I dont give a fuck about "the eye test," which has decieved a lot of SOX fans. They play Sheets/Vaughn/Jimenez, and all their other non-OF mastodons extremely deep, to help hide them in the OF. And this is why a RFer has to be found, though it doesn't necessarily have to be Conforto. And, only after a ~2ish fWAR SP is found first.

Yeah, fair point. So, it was, like, totally cool to stay there, right? Say, by the way, did the state department tell Americans that it was like totally cool to stay there? Just asking...

I dont think this has fuck-all to do with the invasion, TBH. I think this more falls under, "play stoopid games, win stoopid prizes." Because if you're moronic enough to allegedly carry hashish oil into a authoritarian shithole, congratulations! You're in first place in the idiot league! If you took the conscious choice to remain in an authoritarian shithole well after the state department told you to GTFO of Russia, congrats! You're just as bright as those moron hikers in Iran, or Otto fucking Warmbier. Seriously, I feel sorry for her mother. But pity for a moron who does this? Sorry, I got none for you, sweetie.

If you keep Kopech here, he will forever remain a RP. This manager lacks the neuroplasticity necessary to come up with a creative way to stretch Kopech out at the MLB level, WHILE trying to compete. This manager will invariably prioritize winning NOW, and fuck the future, because he's pushing 80; he may not be around to watch Kopech in a year or two. At the same time, that pitching coach hasn't shown the testicular virility to control that manager's urges to overuse a favored pitcher, so as to manage his workload. See: Kimbrel in the post-season last year, and Kimbrel’s usage patterns in the 2nd half of last year as examples of this. So, the best way to balance IP management AND stretch out Kopech is for him to be away from our inept manager, IMO. And that means, send him to MiLB to start, and build his endurance. As others have said, the shortened season can further help with getting Kopech SP-ready. He's definitely a MLB-caliber pitcher right now. But he ain't a MLB-caliber STARTING pitcher, just yet. That aside, there is no talismanic power to a player starting a season in the 26 man. Im more concerned with having the best 26 man in October. So that means I'm OK with Kopech, Crochet, and yes, Vaughn being elsewhere on OD, if that's whats best for the team and the player. I always say: Mickey Mantle was sent back to MiLB after the start of his MLB career, and his career didn't die from it. And there are thousands of other players who went back to MiLB, who later had fine careers. It will be peachy-keen for any of our youngsters to go back to MiLB, if so warranted. And yeah, you could hide Miller, or any other 2B signee this offseason against less-than-ideal matchups. But they all kinda suck, whomever they get. Not a single 2B available right now will move the needle for this team. Whomever they sign just needs to get his hole shut, stay out of trouble, stay healthy, and catch the ball. Thats it, and thats all.

I dunno if I want Vaughn to be here or in Charlotte. I DO know that he doesn't do a lot of the things this team needs right now. [Corner OF defense, hit v RHP, or play a cromulent 2B] I also know that what he can do now is done already better than he by others in this roster. [Crush LHP, play 1B] So, absent a sea change in his performance, and/OR an injury, I don't think it would be a travesty for him to start in Charlotte.

Fair point on the rotation, and to be fair to you, I should clarify. I think the OD rotation does not necessarily have to be the playoff rotation. For me, my goal is to limit Kopech's IP, so that he's available for the post-season. Also, unless Keuchel finds a way to beat back the invincible Father Time for a bit, I also don't relish seeing him pitch in the post-season. I view it as: OD: Giolito, Lynn, Cease, FA SP from the above list, Keuchel. Kopech in AA or AAA slowly getting ramped up for a recall in late May/early June, one of Crochet and Lopez either in the pen, or the 6th SP in Charlotte. Post Season: Giolito, Lynn, Cease, FA SP from the above list, Kopech. Keuchel as swing man or off the Post season roster, and the best of Crochet and/or Lopez on the post season roster. On Brad Miller, he produced less fWAR in 140 games last season than the hated Nick Madrigal produced in 54 games. Yeah, he's "just a guy," which given his likely salary, kinda sucks. He's the living embodiment of "meh," TBH. Honestly, looking at the available MI on the market, they all kinda suck, unless you think this FO will splurge on Correa or Story. If you think that, I'd like some of what you're smoking. Whoever they get for 2B, should just stay out of trouble, keep their pieholes shut, stay healthy, and catch whatever's hit at them. That's all we can hope for, IMO.

I think that SP is the biggest need, as per your comment and Jimmy's article. Trading for one would be a disaster, both from the aspect of RH/KW getting humiliated once again in trade, but also given that there will be needs at the TDL. And that's with the already-depleted MiLB system. I also agree that whoever they get for 2B will be disappointing, be it Miller and him being ancient, or Villar's questionable glove. Just get a warm body that won't fuck up the clubhouse, and who can bring cromulence to the position. Honestly, in looking at what's available in the marketplace, I think we should be happy if they don't add negative WAR to the position, and/or are forced to overplay Leury. But asking this FO to first win a negotiation vs. Boras for Conforto, THEN win a negotiation against Billy Beane or a 33 year old, pre-injured Bassitt whose numbers may be artificially inflated due to pitching in Oakland is suboptimal, TBH. Especially in a shortened FA period. For SP, I'd look at: Kershaw, Greinke, Rodon, Pineda, Perez, Kikuchi, or Kim. Find the best one at the best price first. For RF, after securing a SP, I'd look at Conforto or Suzuki, or possibly Pederson; I'm more interested in someone being able to field the position/reduce wear and tear on Robert, TBH. But I wouldn't squander time chasing one of these while whatever value in the SP market is swallowed up by our enemies before we can get a SP. Lastly, for 2B, either Miller or Villar; both kinda suck, but that's what happens when your FO does stupid things.

You said this, with which I agree. There are other and cheaper ways to solve RF defense. But between better health from our starting 9, and the TDL, this FO can find v RHP solutions. (Assuming they don't do something abjectly stupid once again, getting something that they don't need.) The v RHP issue is for advancing in the playoffs. But you and I agree: The Rotation could keep this team from GETTING TO the playoffs in the first place. So, its become clear that the rotation is the bigger need. Thats why I view Conforto as "a want," while a proper ~2 fWAR SP solution is "a need."

Yes, I agree that finding another solution for SP should be the #1 priority, whenever the lockout ends. Yes, I agree that losing Rodon's production will suck forcefully. That said, I do not know if Rodon is the best solution or not, given his body of work. At the right price? Sure. I also do not want this front office to trade, especially with the Oakland FO, who have b!tch-slapped and curb-stomped the SOX FO in each and every transaction, for decades. This, going back to trading a ~3 fWAR Ray Durham for a middle relief prospect in Jon Adkins. And continued with the Koch and Samardzija robberies. I also do not want them to prioritize signing Conforto, because just as Kimbrel could not help the lineup last season, so too is Conforto unable to help the rotation. I would prefer that they use good old-fashioned American Dollars to sign a ~2-ish fWAR solution(s) for SP/swing man. This can help close the lost Rodon fWAR; the rest could be recovered through improved overall health in the roster, AND through losing Kimbrel's negative fWAR. The other virtue in NOT trading for a SP is that other holes in the roster will appear later in 2022, and 2023. Squandering trade assets NOW on something that can reasonably be acquired with JUST cash is window-shortening, and is stoopid. Once again, just buy the best SP/swing man that fits the budget, and go from there. If it precludes signing a luxury item like Conforto, so be it. Just fix the rotation as best you can first.

This is the entirety of the issue, IMO. MLB does not truly share the bulk of revenues across their league. Instead, each franchise has to make due with whatever resources [TV contracts and tickets sold especially] that they can generate locally. By extension, the entirety of the MLB owners are not in lockstep in terms of what they want. The yankmees, NYM, bahsten, scrubs and dodgers want to spend because they have better local resources than the others; the 6 teams listed want the opposite. JR just wants to make money, and will side with the small market teams. As a result, miniscule green bay is a perennial contender in the NFL, and the bucks can win the NBA championship, but milwaukee will struggle most years in MLB. Shittsburgh can compete in the NFL and NHL, but they're fetid turds in MLB. So, looking around the sporting environment in north america, MLB is behind the other major sports, insofar as how their leagues are constituted. As a result, other leagues are growing in fan interest and importance, while MLB is dying off a bit. Instead of the owners partnering with each other and with the players to fix actual issues within the game, you've got owners at war with each other, and with the players. I just hope they figure this out in time for us to enjoy what should be a good team, and perhaps, a special year for our SOX.

Yeah, by no means do I think it would be a "slam dunk" that NYM would or that they wouldn't want to re-sign Conforto. Its just that when a boomer opens his piehole like Showalter did, its worth noting. Especially given the universal DH, and whatever trading NYM will do... ...that is, whenever the lockout ends.

Maybe? Who's their DH?