Two-Gun Pete

Settlement date: June 1st. First game: June 21st. Trade Deadline: June 30th, just in time for the White Sox to trade for yet another closer, so that they can spend MORE on their bullpen than THREE teams spend on their entire payroll.

NOTE: I number your post and my reply, so that I can give you the benefit of a cogent reply, NOT to be a jerk in any way. On my phone your post looks like a wall of text, and this is how I subdivide your post easily. 1. If this is the case, this is what the TDL could be for, assuming they don't moronically squander time, money, and resources buying a fucking closer they don't fucking need. 2. To your point, the v. RHP hole is really a postseason worry. On top of this, new holes will appear between now and then. Lastly, the v RHP is dwarfed by the loss of 4.9 fEAR in the rotation. So why not handle the v. RHP deficit at the TDL? 3. Agreed, but adding Villar or Miller @ 2B at ~$3-5MM can help close the v. RHP gap a bit. Then, fewer PA by shitty batters like Hamilton/Eaton/the 2021 version of Vaughn can further close the gap. Finally, if the FO doesn't do idiotic things at the TDL, then the finishing touches can be added to the v. RHP needs. Adding Conforto at $20MM/per reduces your ability to close the 4.9 fWAR hole in the rotation. And locking in your postseason needs NOW pre-assumes that nothing at all will go contrary to plan between now and then. 4. Last offseason, I wanted them to sign another arm to give Kopech and Crochet the time and space to get stretched out. This year, they need to find another arm to give Kopech the time and space to get stretched out. Here's hoping this is job #1. 5. I agree. 6. If you agree that this org is unlikely to surpass the Luxury Tax, adding $20MM to the payroll to get Conforto makes it harder to find a post-season SP who can also close the hole caused by Rodon's departure. IOW, you're relying on luck.

Given the cavalcade of shit that's going on in Ukraine, the fucking cheerleading for Putin done by one side of American society, and the joke of the (snicker) "negotiations" between MLB and MLBPA, I think this is a tasty diversion. Here's my take on your list of needs: Given THIS, where the SOX were 6th in wrc+/10th in slg% v. RHP, I agree that this is "a need," but I don't actually think this is the top need. Also, it seems oddly specific to need v RHP power to come ONLY from RF. Why not find v. RHP power at another position? Specifically mentioning RF locks you into one guy in FA, and is a leading question when asking "what do we need." Given THIS, it shows that the SOX just lost 4.9 fWAR from the starting rotation. Honestly, this is a fucking disaster. This is a big hole blown into the hull of a ship. Losing 4.9 fWAR is a problem, and it doesn't much seem like there are any solutions in-house. To me, this is the biggest need in this team, unless you relish the idea of 30 starts from Keuchel, and wish-and-pray that Kopech can miracle his way into 140+ IP this season. Or wish-and-pray that Lopez has actually figured it out. Agreed that 2B is a desperate need. I don't want to further expend meager trade assets getting one. Just use good, old fashioned American Dollars to find cromulence here, even if its a platoon solution. Trading away Kimbrel, and ALL of the malignancy that is his obese salary, AND getting something in return probably isn't happening, in all honesty. If the roles were reversed, and the White Sox did not have a closer/were shopping for one, NONE of us would be clamoring for Kimbrel, AND all of his salary, AND give away a piece. Unless another team suffers catastrophic injuries in their bullpens, Hahn's probably gonna have to either eat some of Kimbrel's obese salary, and/OR send a piece alongside Kimbrel, and/OR accept getting Jack and Shit in return. Given THIS, I don't think that the SOX can afford to spend much more on the bullpen. WITH Kimbrel's idiotic salary on the payroll, the Sox squander 25.1% of the payroll on the bullpen. Even if Hahn works a miracle, and trades away Kimbrel and ONLY has to eat $6MM of his obese salary, the SOX will squander ~20ish% on a bullpen that was 2nd in fWAR, but 29th in IP. IOW, incredibly ineffective asset allocation. For me, I'm thinking the hierarchy of needs are: Find SP depth that can help paper over the loss of Rodon's 4.9 fWAR, the aging shittiness of Keuchel, and the ill-prepared/un-stretched-out Kopech. Sucker some other team's GM to eat as much of Kimbrel's stupid salary as possible, so that: Cromulent solutions at RF and 2B [think ~100-ish wrc+ and positive DRS] at reasonable prices that won't luxury tax-fuck this org can be found, and then: Find vs-RHP-slugging, regardless of position; it doesn't "HAVE TO" be at RF, thus opening up more and creative possibilities. Find affordable depth for the BP that doesn't further handcuff the team. Now, assuming 162 games played, AND assuming that Robert plays > 68 games, Grandal plays > 93 games, Jimenez plays > 55 games, and Leury plays < 126 games, and there are fewer non-OFers trying to play OF, some of the deficits vs RHP and shitty OF defense can be abridged a bit. But, as we read this right now, there are no in-house AND tested replacement options for Rodon's 4.9 fWAR in the rotation.

I mean, it's so fucking obvious. Without making it political, there's one side of the aisle that's all too happy to Putin's lackey and Putin's b****. It also extends to that same side's media types as well. Within a few generations, they've gone from: "Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall" To "I identify with Putin." We really need a fucking draft in this country.

Its breathtaking watching certain politicians and media types who were blaming the US & praising Putin just a few days ago, are now backtracking. As the Russians are now entering Kyiv itself, one wonders how they can live with themselves.

UCL Final Moved Congratulations to UEFA for having the moral rectitude to treat international pariah Russia as it should be treated. Thank you for having the balls that the neutered ioc never had. Really, anything less than the treatment of South Africa during apartheid is an insufficient response. Here's hoping that FIFA takes the proper stand as well.

Full disclosure: I've had a family member go through open heart surgery at a local community hospital on a Friday. They didn't bother to have a nephrologist have a look at him until the following Monday. By then, his kidneys got hit pretty hard by the surgery, and he had to undergo a few rounds of dialysis. Just before he got discharged, his kidneys "woke up" enough to where he's not [yet] on dialysis. He still has to watch his stress, his blood pressure, and his diet, and follow up with a nephrologist every 6 months. My 2 takeaways from that experience are: 1. Don't EVER willingly go to some 2nd rate community hospital for a serious surgery, if you can avoid it. Go to the "big boy" hospitals that are affiliated with a university, if you can at all help it. If not, maybe even Christ, or Alexian Bros, or Lutheran. You'd be surprised at the difference in outcomes, depending on where you go. 2. Some damaged kidneys can recover, and others don't. And, its not always immediately clear who will and who won't recover functions, and why or why not. At least, this is based on what the nephrologists told us. To your point, having your blood removed from your body, filtered, and then returned to your body is fucking harsh. It's a fucking knockout punch from Ali right in the teeth, three times a week. And so, keeping her spirits up will be important, inasmuch as looking to the future, whether it'll be a recovery, dialysis, or a transplant. People can and do get through this, but it takes a bit of a tough mind, work/coordination with the health professionals, and a lot of support from people in her life. All the best to her and to you.

Ugh, WTF didn't they start the stretching out last season? Why didn't they at least try to find out if either or both could become top SPs? That aside, I sure hope youre right WRT Kopech. Otherwise, this window closes the second Giolito hits free agency, IMO.

Well, as Ned Flanders' parents said, "We've tried nothing, man! And we're fresh outta ideas!" I get where you're coming from. But what, exactly, have they tried to teach him a 3rd pitch? How have they tried to maximize this asset/his ability? I feel like them doing Jack and Shit to even try to see if Crochet could ever fulfill his potential is yet another royal fuckup. I mean, I don't think they've even tried to give him some time in MiLB to figure his shit out; it hasn't exactly been as though the rest of the division was right on their heels, and they desperately NEED him to rescue the BP, IMO...

This is a fair point: that the margin for error to rule the ALC has narrowed. In looking at what Detroit have done in the offseason and their prospects, it sure looks like they're getting ready to be relevant again. In Cleveland, their SP assembly line is overdue to produce another significant arm or two. So yes, it was conclusively the right time to send down Kopech and Crochet last year to get stretched out. But alas, the "sugar high" of keeping them here was just too tempting, I guess. But absent a black swan event/bad injury luck, I still think a shortened season could help this team in 22. With fewer IP to cover, it won't be incumbent on Kopech and/or Crochet to miracle their asses into 120+ IP.

I'm trying to be an optimist, during this cavalcade of crap. Lets say it'll be a 60 game season in 2022. That leaves 12 starts to cover by whomever has to replace Rodon. Add in 2-3 skipped starts for each of Keuchel and Lynn for aging reasons, and the odd 1 or so skipped starts for whatever reason for Giolito and Cease. Back of the envelope, that leaves ~60ish IP for starts in the regular season for Kopech, and 35 IP for starts for Crochet. Throw in another 5-10 IP in the playoffs, and Kopech could be at ~70, while Crochet could be at 40 or so. A handful of relief appearances for Crochet, and he's up at 50 IP By 2023, Kopech could be ramped up to 120 or so IP, while Crochet is ramped up to 100, yes? Why wouldn't a shortened season be a competitive benefit for this roster?

I think this ship has already started to sail. They had every opportunity to allow these two to get stretched out last year, but alas, this organization seems hooked on the sugar high of "NOW," rather than maximizing these two. That said, I'm curious as to why you believe that a shortened season would complete the RP'ing of Kopech and Crochet?

Let's be optimists here: The SOX have done, like NOTHING to stretch out Kopech and Crochet; by my recollection, one or the other will have to be in the rotation. Also, Lynn and Keuchel are old, and any shortening of the season saves them wear and tear on their bodies. Assuming health, a shorter season could make it easier for this roster to go further in the playoffs, while lessening the acute need to manage IP on these four. So, a delayed start to the season, while painful and inconvenient, could pay dividends in November. Possibly?

Stretch!

Tex, i hope youre beating whatever health challenges you've had, so that we can argue for years to come about the SOX and other things. I genuinely like you, even though sometimes we agree, and sometimes we disagree. But on this, taking labor without compensation is fucking reprehensible. There is no value in the (snicker) "olympic movement" trying to tell you that amateurism has any value. We already know that human beings like to compete. We've known this fact for millennia. Taking labor without compensation does JACK and SHIT to further prove something we already know. I get that you've been indoctrinated to believe a lot of the bullshit that the ioc and nbc are selling you, because I heard a lot of the same bullshit for most of my life. And I also used to buy into the bullshit that somehow amateurs live to compete more than professionals. Looking at guys like Payton or Jordan or Brady, do you REALLY think that some schmuck not getting comp to bobsled wants to win less than these guys? Really? And so for me, part of being honest with oneself is to admit when previously-held beliefs are wrong. The shit they're feeding you about Amateurism is bullshit. Pros want to compete, want to win, and love what they do, full stop. So, if ANYONE is making money off someone else's efforts, and the laborers are not compensated, its wrong. The assholes at the ioc get cash. So too do the fucksticks at NBC. Seems like everyone, except for the athletes... Oh, and to your question WRT "indentured servants not being in bondage:" As an educator, you should be aware that free labor that's held in bondage is something called, "slavery;" something they had down where you live. Indenrured servants were similarly unpaid, but had the ability to move about freely. Wikipedia it.

That would be one approach. Or, (and hear me out on this), maybe cite someone with a better track record than Levine, and/or use less click-baity wording. Once again, based on Levine's track record and what he actually said, the SOX are "linked to Conforto" to the same degree that you or I are "linked" to a 25 year old Sofia Vergara.

When you're talking the difference between the SOX and Seattle, even in 1st Class its 25000 fewer miles, fewer time zone changes, and less wear and tear on your body. Every little bit helps.

True, but there's a history here. Weren't we "checking in on Semien" just a few weeks ago? How'd that go?

I'm sure the SOX do "have interest" in Conforto. They should, because he's been a good player. Just like I "have interest" in getting to know Ms America. But one wonders if the SOX having "interest" in Conforto is like the SOX "checking in on Semien." At the same time, the title of this thread isn't, "Levine says SOX are interested in Conforto." The thread title is, "Levine LINKS SOX to Conforto," which sounds like there's a fucking snowballs chance in hell of actually happening. See, whenever Levine says something, it usually means that the opposite will occur. It seems click-baity, and based on bullshit. I have no doubt that the SOX "have interest" in Conforto, just like they "have interest" in Trout. It does NOT necessarily mean that there's any meaningful link there, if there is no means or will to actually get it done. Given the luxury tax situation, Conforto's agent, and Conforto's market value, I'd be stunned if Levine had anything here. But then, blind squirrel, stuck watch, and all...

Saw this today, and I thought it was interesting: MLB Teams by miles travelled TL;DR: The SOX had the easiest travel schedule at ~23K miles in 2021. This was less than HALF of the hardest travel schedule, the mariners at ~48k miles. One wonders if the org uses this fact to recruit FAs.

Great read. That said, it likely wouldn't even cost as much as he suggests to bring in a consultant sports dietitian and a food service team to do it. Or Jake Burger. Perhaps we could have seen what he could have become years ago, had he been given a proper model to take care of his body. That said, the market often dictates these sorts of advancements. Investors are already shoveling cash at top prospects, in exchange for a percentage of their future earnings. TATIS owes an investment fund $27.5M, in exchange for cash to advance his offseason programs a few years back. But there is something of a pareto principle to what BLA do, in that they select the top prospects to fund. MLB orgs would be wise to support MiLBers system-wide. Unfortunately for us, this org seems to be laggards in adopting anything new. If MLB mandated improved treatment of MiLBers, the SOX would be in, but I doubt they'd do it of their own accord.

In thinking about this, I checked on Conforto's supposed market value. SPOTRAC has him at $19.1M/per, with a 6/$114M contract being their guess. MLBTR guesses that he'll get 1/$20M, but as he'll cost a pick, and that his agent is Boras, I doubt that a pillow contract is in the works. Today, FANGRAPHS published the ZIPS projections on Suzuki. The juicy bits are him being projected as a 125 wRC+ hitter, 23 HR, and 2.5 fWAR. ZIPS also suggests that his market value is 5/$69M; MLBTR has him at 5/$55M. A midpoint between these two is ~$12.4M/per. Now, I bring this up because, while I believe that, in isolation, Conforto and his lefty bat is the better choice for RF. But, that would ignore the gaping hole at 2B, and the SOX 's position relative to the luxury tax. That said, I think I'd rather sign Suzuki at ~$11M to $13M/per, because that would then make it possible to also add a cromulent 2B at ~$3.5-$5M/per. This would also allow for some "oops room" under the luxury tax. IOW, while Conforto would be a better gamble than Suzuki, the 'stars-and-scrubs' era White Sox taught us that Suzuki+Villar would be better than Conforto+Leury, if Conforto will command a $19M-$20M/per price tag. In any case, Levine knows fuck-all about non-cubs baseball, and he's the source for this thread. And no one's linked us to Suzuki, so it could be that neither find their way to the rate this year. We'll see.

1. I know, right? Making mention of a prospect's flaws means you hate that prospect, amirite? 2. Because of Jimenez and Vaughn and Sheets all lacking range, they position these 3 in a "no doubles " position, to hide their lack of ability. Really none of them are OFers, but I've made peace with Eloy being out there. (Does that mean that if you call Eloy a danger to others in the OF that you hate him?) Anyway, I think that landing a solid OF glove is almost as important as finding someone who can hit RHP. Partially because of the existence of Eloy, and partially to help this depleted pitching staff. 3. I dont want to trade Vaughn, unless the deal was too good to be true. I think that most of what this club needs to do can be done with just money. Equally important, trading from the shittiest MiLB system will shorten an already shortened competitive window. I'd go: Suzuki 5/$55M (solves OF Defense); Villar 2/$7M (15 HR v RHP, switch hitter, some history of being a base stealer, and positional versatility). If RH can get his stupid Kimbrel mistake the fuck off the roster, then go find a SP. But trading if you don't have to isn't what I'd want them to do. 4. I didn't believe in either of Burger or Sheets coming into 21. But Sheets in his SSS showed us something that no one else can do. For Burger, well, he got hurt again, and his fielding record in MiLB didn't inspire confidence. I'd like to have both Sheets and Vaughn as part of this clubs future, but I don't have any hopes for Burger.

Pretty much all of these things are also true about Sheets as well: faced MLB pitching for the 1st time, played OF, where he hadn't previously, didn't play in 2020, and yes, was only in MLB because of the cavalcade of injuries. The key difference is that he's a LH bat, full stop. Insofar as AV as an OFer, his lack of athleticism/lack of range is what undercuts him ever becoming an average defender. He, like Jimenez and Sheets, are all positioned extremely deep, so as to hide their weaknesses. After all, if he were truly a capable defender in the OF, why wouldn't his college have him play there, and an inferior athlete take 1B? And in no way am I doubting the man's future. I believe that he will be a big part of this club's future, post-Abreu. Its just as you said, that Sheets might be able to do what this roster desperately needs. And if they get a proper OFer for RF, there's really only room for one of them in the 26 man roster on Opening Day.

1. No one wants to make Vaughn a platoon player. But if he cannot hit RHP, there really isn't a spot for him here, in all honesty. 2. DING! DING! DING! DING! DING!!!!!!! Thats the entire crux of the argument. If (and I'll grant you that's an "If") Sheets is anywhere near the bat vs RHP he was in 21, how in GOD'S NAME can you not have him here? I get that he's an oaf, and he can't play a position. But he very well might be able to do something that NO ONE else in the roster can do. 3. I dont disagree. That is, IF he can actually hit RHP. I'll agree that he was put into an impossible situation, due to injuries in 21. But he's not an OFer, he's a guy that they have standing so deep that he's 2 steps away from the front row of the bleachers. Oh, and for him to be league-average vs RHP, he'd need a 47% quantum leap in wRC+ to go from 68 to 100. This, coupled with him not being an OFer means that he doesn't need to be here until he can improve one or both issues. 4. I've made peace with the reality that Jimenez will be in LF more often than not in 2022. Hes already signed a contract, so he's gonna be out there, for better or worse. 5. This is really silly. We're all diehards here. And NONE of us "hate" people we don't know personally; none of us "hate" any of the players on this team. I did HATE the 69 wRC+ vs RHP that Vaughn did in 21. His inferior performance hurt the team. But (and hear me out) hating a player's performance is NOT the same as hating a player. You're a better poster than that.