Two-Gun Pete

I can imagine if Theo ran the Pirates. He'd probably be just like Friedman, who made the Rays punch well above their weight class, before being picked up by the Dodgers. In the end, smart FO people get picked up by smart baseball organizations, who then curbstomp the mouthbreather orgs in MLB. Theo would have been no different if he ran the Pirates for a few years before a richer/smarter org scooped him up. For all the whining about shittburg and other teams that supposedly "can't compete," smarter orgs like Tampa and Milwaukee make dumbass orgs look like fools. And yes, while money is "AN advantage," it is no longer "THE SOLE advantage" it used to be. Or else, Cashman and the yankmees would simply buy championships. Nowadays, yes, money helps, but intellect in the FOs make the difference between an absolute buzzsaw like the Dodgers, and just another competitor in the Yankmees. On the other end of the economic scale, intellect is the difference between Tampa and shittburg/cincy/baltimore/other random loser orgs in MLB...

You adore ME? I'm touched and flattered, even though we've never met in person, and TBH, I don't swing that way. Never change. That said, given that I'VE been a SOX fan for far longer than any of the mouthbreathers in the FO have been with the SOX, I'm fully capable of having more than one thought at the same time. MANY of us can, in that we can "adore" the team we grew up watching, AND HATE the imbecility of the FO. It really ain't that hard to do, TBH. 1. Hey, its not a "charade," as in calling it an 'act of falsehood' on my part. I TRULY HATE the stupid shit the FO does. I TRULY believe that they're either too stupid, too weak, or just lying to you when they claimed a "multiple championships" window. So it isn't "an act," so much as I TRULY believe that I've fired more competent workers than they. I TRULY believe that if those clowns worked for a competent org, that KW and RH would be lucky to have a fucking mop job for the Rays or dodgers, for example. 2. I'm glad we agree on this part. Truly, an individual RP does not provide enough WAR to lift or to sink a team that was SO MUCH more talented than Cleveland or Minnesota. And so, for far less cash than they squandered on Kimbrel, they could have signed two ~0-1 WAR RP tokens to hold Kopech and Crochet down long enough to extend their controllable years. And as we've already discussed, the SOX's BP had the 3rd most fWAR when they acquired Kimbrel; him being added here hurt more than it helped. 3. Agreed. Since last offseason, they've traded the mid and long term for the sugar high of the short term. And posters that try to harken back to the "multiple championships" lie are stuck in 2019-era thinking. The "multiple championships" window is dead and gone. I simply pray that we can enjoy ONE ring before this group of players is split up via FA, OR Abreu/Grandal/Hendriks/Lynn get their abilities taken away by Father Time. 4. I'll disagree with you on Vaughn, and give those mouthbreathers a pass on keeping him here in 2021. There simply weren't a whole lot of other options to choose from, IMO. That said, in 2022, either Vaughn better learn how to hit RHP, OR this org better have the balls to send his ass down, if he continues to struggle v. RHP. Keeping Vaughn here for 2022 in a part time role while he struggles vs RHP further shortens this window, and harms HIS trade value.

SOX fans need to let this one go. They LIED to you when they claimed they were going for "multiple championships," unless you buy that lying lawering bullshit artist Rick Hahn. When they moronically failed to get the year of control back on Kopech, they shortened the window. When they stupidly failed to start stretching out Crochet, they shortened the window. And when they fucking added an old, expensive closer in decline to the BP w/the 3rd most FWAR, while giving up 2 league minimum pieces, they shortened the window. I recommend that posters make peace with the reality that this window is closing once TA and Giolito leave via FA. It might close earlier, if Father Time comes to take away Grandals bat speed, or Hendriks fastballs, or if Lynn's obesity starts his inevitable decline sooner than expected. At the same time, there is exactly Jack and Shit in the MiLB system to help keep this window open. So again, make peace with having to trade away MLB pieces, if this org wants to make significant trades to augment the 26 man roster. Carry on...

Oh, for them I want the mouthbreathing morons in the FO and coaching staff to stop doing impossibly imbecilic shit that makes it harder to win. Or, for all those morons to be fucking fired, and more intelligent FO types from smarter and superior orgs to replace them all. Merry Christmas.

Jessica Beale and Megan Fox Wearing nothing but their socks Is all I really want for Christmas this year!

Agreed, although the summation of the stupid additions are exactly the reason(s) why this org can't/won't spend at the top of the market. Whats frustrating is that they never seem to learn anything, but rather, they keep squandering cash on the little things, while cheaping out on the big ticket items. Subtract Kimbrel's 2021 salary/what they'll have to eat on his 2022 salary, plus whatever they'll spend on a mediocre 2B could go a long way to buying an actual difference maker. Or locking up Giolito.

1. Sure: he was -16.8 in DEF over that 3 year period, which is decidedly not "slightly below average." 2. Funny that your tout UZR/150, & not DEF. Why cherry pick one over the other? Why attack me, as opposed to the data? 3. Sorry you can't even remember YOUR OWN post, but here, I'll chop down your vomit pile of text, and quote it below. 4. Yes, you cherry picked Kimbrel being good for "54% of his innings pitched." You slice/dice, and cherry pick all the time.

Indeed. I'm capable of sharing more cogent thought than you, without the vomit-pile.

Yeah, his DEF gives me reason to pause: On the one hand, Conforto's bat should be a fit, if he adjusts to a new league and he bounces back a bit. OTOH, if his defense is as projected, he could also be another 1B/DH type. IOW, his bat should be a solution, if he doesn't follow the other NL bats that took a shit here, but if he can't field his position, he could be a problem for this roster as well. That said, if you were to attack me over Conforto, while cherry-picking stats, and posting vomit-piles of texts at me, I'd give you the title as Conforto's biggest fan here. Work on that, Ron.

See, what you do isn't "analysis, its cherry-picking. And then attempt to subsume each post with a wall of text. Whether its you telling us that Kimbrel was good in "54% of his IP since coming to Chicago," or telling us that (years ago), "Conforto played CF, it isn't really "analysis." You may not like Fangraphs' DEF as a point of data, but there it is: Conforto being among the worst at the position over multiple years.

Hey, thats fair. I do curse too much over here, although I don't direct it at my peers here. I save it for the FO, whenever they do stupid shit.

So even your slice & dice needs to be sliced and diced. Got it. IOW, when Schwarber improves YOY, it's "an outlier," but when Conforto's numbers take a giant shit/decline YOY, it's also "an outlier." Meanwhile, when FG shows that Conforto has sucked at defense in the past 3 seasons, it doesn't count, because years ago he played CF. This is what we mean by "slice and dice." And thanks. Insults really advance your viewpoint.

1. There's the slice & dice we've come to expect from you. You really need to stop doing that, as we've already stated that his CAREER OPS is very strong. 2. Here's "DEF" from FANGRAPH'S GLOSSARY. On CONFORTO'S FG PAGE, it's conveniently right next to WAR on the season stats part. Actually, on ALL MLB players' FG page, the positionally-adjusted DEF stat is conveniently next to WAR. 3. Not "every major metric." THIS has him as being 2nd to last on the positionally-adjusted DEF. And he hasn't played CF since 2019. Its not 2019 any more. And there you go again, with the slice/dice to finagle viewpoints. Schwarbers offensive numbers are improving, while Conforto's have gotten worse, and facts are facts: Schwarber's CAREER OPS numbers [READ: non-sliced/diced] v RHP are better than Conforto's. FANGRAPHS has both players as equally-shitty defenders, though Schwarber's -10 DEF comes at LF. That said, both suck at defense, but since we're finagling arguments, Schwarber's arm is plenty good enough to play in right, as he had been a catcher in the past.

I mean, if you're gonna give up defense for offense, Schwarber's career OPS v RHP is .903... That said, I think I'd rather roll dice on Suzuki.

The projections on Conforto's defense don't do him any favors; if this org is going to possibly give the franchise's largest FA contract out, I'd rather not have that even be a question, given that there will already be a DH/1B type in LF. Also, a career .873 OPS vs RHP isn't really "elite," is it? It's very good, no doubt, and would help the offense. But we've already got another 1B/DH in the OF, and that -10 DEF gives me reason to pause.

As Michael Conforto's biggest fan on these boards, I thought I'd approach you on your thread. [If this has already been covered, I apologize.] In thinking about the RF position, I think that one area that can be under-appreciated is the defensive side of things. I think that one issue with this team's OF as a whole is that there are too many non-OFers trying to play OF; if you like, too many DH/1B types that this team has playing deep, so as to hide their defensive flaws. [THINK: Sheets/Vaughn/Jimenez, and how these three play "no doubles" deep like, all the time, because they suck at defense.] So, in turning to Conforto, I noted that fangraphs doesn't THINK MUCH OF HIS DEFENSE. A -10 on DEF means that he gives up 1 full win through his defense alone. To COMPARE HIM TO HIS CONTEMPORARIES, fangraphs has him as being worse defensively than our old friends Nomar Mazara and Adam Eaton since 2019. In fact, the defensive numbers kinda make him look like yet another DH/1B type, only LHH. That said, why do we want a guy who looks like another DH/1B type, based on the numbers and projections? A DH/1B type with all of 14 HRs last season, an increasing GB% over the past 3 seasons, and an injury history? Thanks in advance.

On #1, I'm sure you have been told conflicting things hereto fore. And while I find your writing to be cogent and compelling, I wonder if your source(s) are merely using your good name to put out spin/PR. To the bolded, how can we be so confident that it'll be ~$190MM-200MM, if you don't know whats true at this point? On #2, how can we believe that a 2B, AND a SP, AND Conforto are possible, when you've been told conflicting things? Also, given this org's behaviors/recent history/recent poor choices, how are we to believe that they wont just fuck this one up? And again, in now way am I impugning you/your writing. I gotta admit, I don't know what/who you're referring to with this post. I do think its worthy to consider HOW a team with budgetary constraints spends. After all, they've got what, damn near $40MM into a bullpen, but at the same time, the only 2B in the roster is Leury Garcia, in part BECAUSE they chose to spend so richly on the BP.

I mean, if your argument begins with "should," it isn't an argument. Its wishcasting, and rendered almost wholly out of bullshit. I actually don't mind my teams having budgets and a financial model. What I find utterly moronic is when they do stoopid shit, and then can't or won't spend their way out of their moronic mistakes. Again, I'm not calling bullshit on Jimmy. I'm calling it out on the bullshitting bullshitters who bullshitted Jimmy. I suspect it was the same assclowns that made some here believe that "Harpchado" was anything more than mere fantasy. Or that "the money will be spent." And so on. Basically, Rick Hahn: You fucked up 2021, and you're on your way to fucking up 2022 and beyond. Fucking fix this.

At this point, I gotta wonder where this alleged info of the SOX spending came from. I dont doubt that Jimmy was told this, but given this org's history, I'm going to have to doubt it's veracity.

I'm shocked, SHOCKED that Semien didn't sign for the pittance that Levine claimed that he would. I mean, with all his years of experience, and all his (snicker) sources, who could have seen that coming?

1. Agreed. This FO ridiculously overvalues RPs, whether it was Billy Koch, or Craig Kimbrel. The rest of the industry has already figured out that RPs are necessary, but there's a reason why fWAR tells us that the best reliever in the AL was less valuable than 110 other players. 2. Agreed. There were downside risks to the 2021 team, and giving up 2 league minimum players for a luxury player was bad and dumb. Especially considering that 2022 or 2023 might have presented a stronger opportunity to win than 2021. 3. Agreed. Creating and maintaining a margin for error is how a FO can keep a window open. Gambling a few pieces on a volatile RP in a season where there were better teams than this one was ill-informed and ill-advised. (Cue chicago white sox to slice and dice kimbrels numbers into sss to defend a bad deal.)

Maybe, but seeing how RH addressed the vs RHP kryptonite with Hernandez, and the RF hole with NOBODY, I think RH has earned every scrap of critique. After all, these are still the geniuses that gave you James Shields and Jeff Samardzija. 1. Did the white sox need the same things as TB and LAD at the TDL? Did TB & LAD have the exact same holes as the SOX? If not, then this is a canard. We're still waiting to see how Kimbrel was going to solve the RF hole. If he was not going to solve the RF hole, then it was the wrong acquisition. And even if there was a small issue with the RH setup men, it wasn't just straight up kryptonite to this team, as it was having no solutions for RF, & scant additions to defeat RHP. 2. You yourself posted a few weeks ago that Kimbrel was only good in 54% of his innings in recent seasons. IOW, it was barely better than a coin flip that Kimbrel would be good. And again, how would Kimbrel solve RHP, or solve RF? ...just askin'...

That ship has already begun to sail, I'm afraid. Trading league minimum salary cromulent pieces for a closer that was not needed at the last TDL started the "window shortening" process. (Actually, it started when they didn't try to regain the year of control on Kopech/start to stretch him and Crochet out to start last season.) With every big contract handed out to SPs, the less likely Giolito re-signs here. With every big contract handed out to shortstops, the less likely TA re-signs here. Add into it the aging process on Hendriks/Keuchel/Abreu/Grandal and we can already see the ending of this window coming. With exactly Jack and Shit in MiLB to replace soon-to-be departing and/or aging pieces, we should probably make peace with the fact that this window ain't gonna be "5 to 7 more years." Agreed. But once you accept that this window will close (probably in 2023/4), will it really matter in 5 to 7 years? I dont "want to" trade Vaughn, but we don't have a lot of years to wait for this org to get it together. Banners fly forever.

In no way am I impugning Jimmy. But, if you're older than ~8 years old, you've seen this same song-and-dance over and over and over and over again from this FO: "We've got a seat at the table." "The money will be spent." And so on. To the bolded, what links do we have that this will actually occur, apart from Jimmy saying that they'll spend? Do we have anyone reputable saying the same? Boob saying that the SOX are looking for a SP "LIKE Ray," and a 2B "LIKE Semien" is not news. Its (as-yet) unsubstantiated speculation.

When you're a team that has some budgetary constraints, every dollar spent on a Graveman or middling veteran 2B is a dollar that can't be deployed to pursue top of the market studs. Sure, given the financial constraints, blowing what, $14MM or so on a 2-ish fWAR 2B isn't as good a fit as say, an Escobar-level contract for 2-ish fWAR. Yes, but thanks to profligate spending elsewhere in the roster, can this org make Semien's salary fit into this roster? I'm not too sure. EDIT: Just because one writer has a rumor that the SOX will spend does not mean that they actually WILL spend. When an org shows you who and what they are over and over again ad nauseum, you should believe them.