Two-Gun Pete

So here's THIS: The writer doesn't seem to think that the Phillies youngsters are ready. The writer also doesn't think much of Gregorius, and seems to think that Phila needs financial flexibility going forward. If in fact this writer has the pulse of the Phillies FO, it wouldn't seem to be a match for them to trade for Kimbrel; they wouldn't have the financial flexibility they'd want, and they'd blow a hole in their roster at the same time.

To the bolded, how can you say this, without some basis of comparison to Hahn's peers? Or to compare these acquisitions to others made at the same time?

True that that table doesn't capture efficiency, based on $ spent/WAR, nor does it compare Hahn's spending to other FOs. It also doesn't capture the opportunity cost/opportunity loss, in terms of what could have been signed INSTEAD OF these players.

Craig Kimbrel in 2021: 2.2 fWAR @ $16MM/yr Leury Garcia in 2021: 2.0 fWAR @ $3.5MM/yr RPs are necessary, no doubt. But even a heavily-used RP cannot accumulate as much WAR as a cromulent everyday position player. This is why some of us don't like spending this kind of cash on a guy who will appear in fewer innings in 2022 than the backup C, or the 4th OFer, or a utility IFer.

This is exactly who I thought of when the Graveman signing was announced. I don't much care for them allocating as many resources into the bullpen as they do. I wonder where this org's BP spending compares to other teams.

Nah, he's just awful in general at opining on any MLB topic except for his scrubs. He sucks out loud. I will agree that the boomerish ineptitude with technology is amusing.

I agree that 3 years is the least likely. That is, unless the contract contains opt outs after each year, to enable Boras to return to market if Conforto returns to a higher level of performance at some point.

I was thinking more along the lines of an old, useless, worthless piece of shit like Bruce Levine.

To the bolded, when you say, "some," does anyone credible have Conforto signing for such a relative pittance? Do you have a link?

Good catch. So, IOW, there may be what, 7 teams interested in Conforto? It doesn't seem to match this FO's M.O. for them to try to out-compete so many other teams for his signature. Similarly for Suzuki, you've got Seattle, Texas, Atlanta, SFG, and perhaps Washington and Detroit as possible suitors; the SOX seem to get in on players with fewer suitors.

According to THIS, if he does not sign before 12/1, his 30 day window would be "paused" until the CBA gets worked out.

Fair question. For me, it's a couple of iissues here. First, despite the one rumor that the SOX will spend money, I reserve the right to doubt that it will happen until it does. We once were led to believe that "Harpchado" had a chance to occur, and then it didn't. Second, this is an org that does its best work when a FA target has few suitors; to my recollection, NYM, Atlanta, Texas, Phillies, Brewers are all in on him, and perhaps the SOX. We'll have to see.

I think I'd agree with this. I think I'd prefer Suzuki at ~$7-11MM/yr for 3-5 years than Conforto @ $100MM. I think that Suzuki would be an average to above average fielder, while Conforto's DRS and UZR have been negative in recent seasons. And yes, while Conforto's a lefty, I have reasons to pause when another NL LHH coming off a down year is the target. All that said, I also agree with you that neither are likely to come here.

No idea, which is why I don't see them being in on those players, at least as things stand now. Stott is a top 100 prospect, I believe. But I think his ETA to The Show might not be until mid-season? To your question, I dunno.

My understanding is that the Phillies are trying to compete, so I question as to why Philadelphia would blow a hole in their MLB roster in exchange for Kimbrel. A quick glance at their MiLB depth chart shows that they have a couple 'spects that had their first cups of coffee @ AAA in 2021, but I don't know if Phila believe in them or not. I guess I dont see the motivation for Philadelphia to give up Segura, if they don't have alternative options at the position.

No, I've already stated that there was a small issue with a RH setup man. Whats more, I didn't see it as pressing as the OF/2B/vs RHP holes that weren't addressed at all. I wouldn't have categorized the pen as being the most important issue, and I generally see everyday players as being more important than relievers, all things being equal... Now, since they squandered cash on the pen, we may not be able to land Conforto, since the moves made will cost real money.

To the bolded, I have questions, since you said that these acquisitions would not impact the finances: A. Has the cash been spent already on Kimbrel? B. Will Madrigal and Heuer have to be replaced with players that will cost money? C. If this cash was not squandered on Kimbrel, could it (hypothetically) be spent on better players that could actually solve problems in this team? (Like Conforto) That said, Where did I say that Hernandez would be a failure? I said that the acquisition of Hernandez would be a failure, which it was. I said that Hernandez was in decline, which he is. Atlanta did acquire 2 OFers that appear in decline, but they also actually tried to address their real issues, rather than squandering resources on pieces that they didn't need. The SOX wasted the TDL on a centerpiece that was a piece of shit, and totally ignored a gaping hole in the OF.

Well, thanks for admitting that. I will apologize, if I've come off as condescending; its not at all my intention. That said, here are the numbers: Duvall's WRC+ since 2017: 96, 69, 120 (in 41 games), 115 (in the short 2020 season), and 103 this season. More injuries than straight line declination in WRC+, IMO. Pederson WRC+ since 2017: 100, 126, 126, 86 (short 2020 season), 94 this year. There's a decline of 6% from 2017-2021, with 2 fortunate years in 18/19. Given his age, I'd say he's probably a 100-ish WRC+ player than the 126 guy. Soler: 32 (35 games), 123 (61 games), 136 (2019/162 games), 108 in 2020, 100 in this season. Like Duvall, there were some injury riddled years, and a career year back in 2019. Rosario: 117, 114, 104, 111 in 2020, and 98. So, a decline here. Of the 4, I'd say that 2 were in decline, and 2 were not, although the 2 in decline were <30 years old, and thus, a better bet to bounce back than some. Whats more, actually trying to solve REAL roster problems (Atlantas OF), instead of waiting time on perceived ones (SOX need for a 2nd closer) is usually the better way to go. Even if the solutions on offer are not ideal. Now, let's review the WRC+ for the SOX RF acquisition...

Well, IMO, squandering cash ongoing Kimbrel/a 2B/a RP, and then squandering cash to send Kimbrel away will likely prevent Conforto and Semien from being seriously pursued by this FO.

Wait, you said, "Literally none of these deals had to have any affect on financial flexibility going forward. " Do you disagree with the arithmetic? That said, Atlanta traded a backup C for Duvall, a prospect 1B in High A for Pederson, and a Hi A pitcher for Soler. Of these 3, only the backup C would have to be replaced in Atlanta's 2022 payroll. So on that basis, not only did Atlanta actually attempt to address their issues, they did so without squandering future financial resources.

Can you point to where I posted that "Atlanta's pickups were not a lock to fail?" Thanks.

Ooh, so this is a great topic shift to avoid the questions surrounding the choice to overspend on a pen, while doing nothing about the lineup imbalance and OF hole, so I'll follow you. I happen to believe that the SOX have budgetary limitations, and that spending uselessly on smaller pieces impedes the future ability to buy bigger ones. Let's have some fun with arithmetic: 1. Madrigal and Heuer were on $600k/yr before they were shipped out. To replace them with garden-variety league average pieces, what would it take in salary? I'll posit ~$5-6MM for each player. So, ~$10-12MM instead of $1.2MM. 2. The SOX paid Kimbrel roughly half of his contract last year, so what, $8MM? 3. In a marketplace where the entirety of MLB knows that RH wants to sell Kimbrel (thus fucking his negotiating leverage), and after a post season where Kimbrel shat his pants, and after a few years where he's been bad as frequently as he's been good, I believe it will take sending some cash to get anything in return for Kimbrel. Especially, in his age 33/will be 34 in May season, during a CBA renegotiation. Let's use the range of $8-10MM to be sent along with Kimbrel, in order to get a piece back. 4. Back of the envelope totals: ~$10-12MM to find a high leverage RH RP + an everyday 2B, PLUS the ~$8MM already paid to Kimbrel, PLUS ~$8-10MM to ship Kimbrel out = $26 -30MM that was spent on this misadventure. Subtract out what this org COULD be paying Madrigal/Heuer/cheaper TDL pieces, and maybe we're only looking at $20MM squandered. Now, when posters want to know why this org can't bid for Semien or Comforto, point to the money squandered on smaller pieces that keep a budget-conscious org from making bigger splashes more regularly.

And you're avoiding what is/was central to the discussion: Was acquiring an obese closer contract the best thing to do, when there were multiple lineup holes, handedness lineup issues, and OF defense questions? As it pertains to asset allocation, who did better? That Atlanta addressed their issues with multiple cheap guys, vs. Getting a closer that wasn't needed, and addressing only 1 lineup hole, while fucking your financial flexibility going forward?

Because those who want to defend this FO don't want to be honest enough to address these realities. Yes, this team needed a RH setup man, but the holes elsewhere were bigger, IMO.

And the SOX plugged their RF hole with nobody, while Atlanta made an effort to address their issues with multiple guys. The SOX also addressed their vs RHP issues with just Hernandez, while overspending on a pen that did not need another obese closer contract. So, who did better at at the TDL?