Two-Gun Pete

Well, you tried to make it about asset allocation, so I thought I'd follow your line of argument. So let's try again: How would Kimbrel help the deficiency vs RHP? And how would Kimbrel help plug the hole in RF? I happen to believe that holes in the everyday lineup are more important than mild issues with a bullpen.

With respect to the bolded, I was on the road a bit more for work during that timeframe. That said, I promise you that if RH fucks up again, I'll make sure to thrash him, if he so warrants it. Sound good? Ok, I have questions about your post: 1. Where did I write, "Can't miss" for any of those guys? 2. If in fact I did not write "Can't miss," will you be intellectually honest enough to admit that? Here's what I wrote about those acquisitions: "...Go buy 4 cheap options that wouldn't kill their future ability to maneuver if they failed..." So again, where was the imaginary post you read where I wrote that anyone was "Can't miss?" Thanks in advance for your honesty.

No no, I've admitted that there was an issue with the pen. You listed the assets that Atlanta acquired to solve their issues. I listed the assets the SOX acquired to solve their issues. I think its entirely fair to compare which team did a better job to plug their teams holes, since you brought it to our attention. Let's review for our SOX: RF issue: Get nobody. Wish and pray and hope that Engel would finally get healthy, that the plodding 1B/LF types could be hidden there, and plug in Leury. 2B: Add Hernandez Glaring lineup deficiency vs RHP: Hope that Hernandez, a returning Grandal, and perhaps, a rookie in Sheets can stop RHP from curbstomping the lineup. Small issue with a RH setup man: Get BOTH Tepera AND an obese contract tied to a guy who, according to TLR, isn't a setup man, and who, according to Chicago White Sox, has only been good 54% of the time in recent seasons, while giving away 2 cheap pieces of the MLB roster. Vs. Atlanta: OF holes: Go buy 4 cheap options that wouldn't kill their future ability to maneuver if they failed, but if they worked, this was the result. To be fair to both sides, I also noted that the SOX had a tougher row to hoe vs a full strength McCullers, while Atlanta avoided having to face a full strength McCullers and Scherzer.

They threw enough resources at their problem that they got some solutions to stick. They also had the benefit of not having to face McCullers at full health, and not having to face Scherzer twice. By contrast, the SOX FO addressed the RF hole with nobody, the 2B hole with Hernandez, and the mild issue with the bullpen with BOTH Kimbrel AND Tepera. So yes, the asset allocation Atlanta chose to fix their issues was better than buying an obese closer contract to solve the vs RHP issue. Atlanta also were more fortunate to face McCullers and Scherzer at less than peak efficiency. I happen to think that holes in the everyday lineup >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a mild issue with the bullpen. But hey, if you can show us how Kimbrel would help this lineup solve McCullers, and how Kimbrel would solve the gaping hole in RF, I'm all ears. Thanks in advance.

Funny thing: When we were in service, the inter-service rivalry thing was a thing. Now, with the benefit of time and wisdom, I'm grateful to have the world's best services getting the job done for us... That is, except for Army dogs, since my brothers are ex-Army. ?

This only proves that Levine knows Jack and Shit, and is talking shit here. He knows fuck all about MLB , and fuck all about White Sox baseball. Its a complete and total waste of time to pay any attention to what this fucko says or tweets. 5/115 for Semien is a fucking joke.

I'll recap yesterday's discussion: Chicago White Sox was chopping up Hernandez's overall decline from 2017-2021. He attempted to agglomerate 2020 and 2021 together. However, I pointed out that 40% of Cleveland's games in 2020 were against weak opposition, which certainly made life easier for Hernandez, and inflated that year's numbers. (24/60 =.4; over 162, thats 65 free games against AAA and AAAA turds) I also noted that the reduced travel further made it easier for an aging player like Hernandez. Lastly, because there were no fans in the stands due to COVID, going on the road was less daunting for visiting players in many regards. So, on balance, Chicago White Sox wanted to point to an anomalous 2020 season to defend the Hernandez acquisition By contrast, I noted that with veteran players, you've got a body of work, and trends to help make decisions. Tying this together, RH making a closer his centerpiece acquisition, while adding a token 2 WAR guy was NOT going to enable this team to win anything. There were better options than Hernandez, given a number of factors. But buying an anomaly instead of the back of the baseball card leads a GM to fuck up.

See, I'm crazy in many regards, to include the crazy idea that an everyday player >>>>>>>>>>>> a RP, and that the lineup's needs were >>>>>>>>>>>> any needs in the pen. I thought that the pen needed "a piece," but not necessarily a "centerpiece." I also kinda sorta got sick of watching RHPs curbstomp this lineup, and that it was a far more obvious weakness than anything that was wrong with the pen. Now, I believe that WAR isn't entirely fair to RPs, because not everyone can do what they do. But OTOH, there must be a reason why the average everyday player routinely puts up more WAR than the average RP.

No doubt. Given the scarcity of resources, where this team was at the TDL, and what this team needed, this was a moronic move. I think RH is trying to salvage some return, but we'll see.

Yeah, I fear you may be right. I just didn't want him (firstly) because no one can show me how Craig Kimbrel was going to improve the OF defense, how a closer would help the lineup vs tough RHP, or would solve a hole at 2B. Beyond that, there are other issues insofar as why trading for Kimbrel was moronic, but yes, I hope they read the market correctly as well.

So, in that case, in exchange for 10 years of control over 2 players (that are @ the MLB minimum salary), PLUS whatever they paid Kimbrel, this org would get a 4.56 FIP, ZERO help for the lineup vs RHP, and ZERO solutions for RF/2B. In other words, you'd accept a punt as being a good outcome here? But the fly in the ointment is that Kimbrel sucked out loud in non-save situations, TLR admitted the same, and this coaching staff did jack and shit about it since Kimbrel took a shit on this team's chances. Plus, as Chicago White Sox told us, he's only been good in "54% of his IP" in recent years, while his obese salary consumes budget space that could be better used for more pressing needs. (Like EVERYDAY PLAYERS instead of RPs.) I guess we now know why I hated the Kimbrel trade from conception... I hope RH can miracle his way through this one somehow.

Here's hoping that ReyLo's adjustments stick, and that he can produce this year. I wished that they had sent Kopech and Crochet down to start getting them stretched out to start last season. I also wish that they would sign another RP, so that Crochet can work on a 3rd offering, and get stretched out THIS year.

I understand where you're coming from. But, even though I would have fucking fired all those fucking mouth breathing morons in the front office years ago, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt: IF they can miracle their way into getting something for a 33 year old closer in decline who can't pitch in any other situation other than closing, and who is on a $16MM contract, during a MLB labor re-negotiation, while the entirety of the industry KNOWS they need to trade him, then I'll be happy to throw roses their way. IF, however, all they get is salary relief and a low A/dominican Winter league lottery ticket, then I think we should all rightly give RH/KW yet another round of critique that they would richly deserve. Let's see first.

1. Well, all three of Jimenez, Sheets, and Vaughn are deployed the same way: deep, so as to keep everything "in front of them," and to hide their obvious deficiencies. The problem is that the defense can't support having ALL THREE, while the lineup already has plenty of LHP killers/RHP struggles. So pick one of the three, and get something. I'd rather not give up on a youngster so quickly, but RH/KW have stoopidly built a roster full of RHH 1B/LF/DH types; they've got to unfuck this. 2. Agreed that sometimes its inciteful to take the fan hat off; sometimes other posters get butthurt when you do. That said, 2021 was unfair to Vaughn, because injuries forced him into service before he should have been. Again, RH/KW fucked up in not getting some MiLB OF depth, and so Vaughn was forced up. Vaughn has some deficiencies, no doubt. I think he can improve, but I question if he can do so before Giolito and Lynn (and others) leave. This window will close, and this team needs solutions. If it means trading Jimenez or Vaughn, and it will fix this roster, then I'm all for it. See, this iine of posting isn't constructive, unless its Ron and Abreu. I dont think anyone here "hates" anyone on their favorite team, as I dont think any of us know any of the players on a personal level. If you disagree with his post, then attack his posts, not the poster. YMMV.

The 2020 season featured 60 games, due to Covid. To limit travel, 40 games were played against division opponents, 10 vs each of the 4 division foes in 3 unbalanced series. So, Cleveland got 10 stat-padding games vs Detroit, and 10 free games vs KC. And yes, there were 20 tough games vs our SOX and Minnesota, but I didn't bother to see if Cleveland had more games at home or on the road. The other 20 games would be against the NL teams from the same division. So, Cleveland had at least 4 stat padding games vs. Shittsburgh. So, at least 24 of the 60 games were vs ~.400 win % opposition. Whats more, back in 2020, with no fans in the stands, going on the road wasn't as much of a challenge as in a "normal year." In sum, it wasn't just the short season, but also, the nature of the season that made 2020 anomalous. And no, I don't take this personal. So no worries.

And you could be right. But exactly WHO in MLB believes that RH has any plans to keep Kimbrel, and have a ~$30MM closer tandem? By extension, exactly what negotiating leverage would RH have in trading Kimbrel? Especially after he shit himself with us, and has been almost as frequently bad as he has been good in recent years? Oh, and all of this at his age 33 (will be 34 next May), during a labor negotiation. If RH can move Kimbrel without giving up $5-6MM, AND he gets something useful in return, I'd be happy to give him credit. But I'm having a hard time seeing any of this taking place, given all of the above factors working against him.

Yes, let's give the 60 game 2020 season as much weight as the 2021 season. Dude was in a clear decline, and he wasn't going to replicate his 1st half numbers. It was bad and dumb to trade for him

I dont think it was indifference, so much as it was his decline at the dish cutting into his playing time, coupled with aging.

I'll subdivide your post into chunks, because I believe you deserve fair answers to your post: 1. Wait, you were the one who tried to agglomorate his 2020 numbers with his 2021 numbers, without acknowledging that 2020's 60 game season was anomalous. If anyone is contorting numbers, it would be you. 2. And he was an 83 WRC+ hitter vs RHP in 2021, with a measurable overall decline. Had his overall numbers shown more stability, I might have been more comfortable sending a division enemy a piece. 3. Sorry, I was working and on the road a bit more at the TDL. Otherwise, I would have given RH more of a beating. 4. Between the trashtros superior talent, and superior coaching, yes. I doubted their ability to beat them. Add into the many players who were ripe for regression in the SOX roster, and the questions surrounding the recovery of the injured players, yes, I further doubted their ability to beat the trashtros. And when RH addressed the RF/2B/vs RHP holes with a closer and Hernandez, I further doubted their ability to beat Houston. 5. Yes, we've covered this. Hernandez was ripe for regression because his 1st half WRC+ was supported by his anomalous HR numbers. He was the textbook definition of someone who was about to fall down to earth, performance-wise. 6. Yes, I've ripped the Kimbrel trade, because no one has shown me how an expensive closer would have helped this team do anything about McCullers (and other RHP) from curbstomping them. Adding Hernandez was clearly the wrong move, for all the reasons we've discussed here.

So you and Chicago White Sox are both going to give the 60 game 2020 season credence to rate a player? I don't. And if he was such a Golden God at the position, why didn’t anyone lose sleep about his option being declined? I suspect that its because Hernandez is "just a guy" now, IOW, a ~2-ish WAR token. Good FOs can find cromulent ~2-ish WAR tokens at the league minimum. In turn, it enables an org to pursue higher-value FAs, because good organizations don't waste signifiant resources on tokens if they can avoid it.

Yeah, I'd thought about the 2002 2-0 win v Mexico as well. But in that game, the US were fortunate that the ref missed John O'Brien's handball in the box. By contrast, last night was a 90 minute beat down of our biggest rival. We left the pitch knowing that we were the better side, even with referee numbskullery. I hope youre right about The Office being a trap game. I still have nightmares from last cycles failures.

I know, right? These numbers were just "so hard to find," amirite?

1. Copy/pasted from your previous post: ..."However, from 2020 to 2021..." "...Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100...." Anyone can justify anything, if you cut up trends into nice segments. Hernandez was in a clear, straight-line decline of 19% over the 2017-2021 time frame, full stop. And, if you want to "credit" Hernandez for having an awesome 1st half WRC+ of 96, you also have to admit that that came alongside a career anomaly in HR in the 1st half. The anomalous 1st half HR numbers made the 1st half WRC+ artificially inflated, and ripe for regression. 2. RH deserves TONS of disrespect for this move. The team needed someone to stand at 2B, but the LINEUP needed effectiveness vs RHP. Let's review the WRC+ splits vs RHP for some notable 2B from 2021: Cesar Hernandez: 83 Eduardo Escobar: 98 Leury Garcia: 101 Danny Mendick: 77 We could also go over the WAR numbers, but suffice it to say that Cesar had a negative number while in Chicago. See, if you're going to be fair, you can't just fall all over yourself to give RH plaudits at every turn. You ALSO have to give him critique when it is/was warranted. His TDL made the 2021 team WORSE, while fucking up the financial flexibility going forward. The org would have been better off had they done nothing at the TDL.

No doubt, I agree that Kopech has ability. But the most important ability is AVAILability, and whether its due to an IP limit, or injury, Kopech has a few challenges to fight through. Meanwhile, this org has to find a 2B and a high leverage RP, instead of having two guys on the league minimum at these spots. Let's do the math: Heuer and Madrigal were on $600k/yr. Assuming that they could be league average at their position, what would it take in equivalent FA salary to replace them? I'd guess ~$5-6MM for a ~2 WAR 2B to replace Madrigal, and ~$5-6MM to replace Heuer. Now, add in the fact that the entire baseball world KNOWS that RH is desperate to ship Kimbrel out the door. To get ANYTHING in return in trade, because RH has ZERO leverage to trade Kimbrell, I'm guessing that the SOX will have to eat some of th $16MM he's owed. Let's assume it'll be ~$10MM of Kimbrel's contract. Taking the ~$10MM squandered to replace league minimum cromulent pieces, PLUS a theoretical ~$10 squandered on Kimbrel gives us ~$20MM that could have been spent to upgrade other holes. Without that trade last year, Conforto could possibly fit into the salary structure of this org, using the hypothetical I listed above. Or if not Conforto, then perhaps a SP upgrade. Fun times with arithmetic.

Look, cutting up segments to contort your argument to support a signing that neither of us wanted isn't a good look. He was in decline, and his 1st half WRC+ #s were artificially inflated by a career anomaly in HRs. And as I just edited my previous post, Cesar was worse than Escobar and worse than Leury vs RHP. He ACTIVELY made our lineup's handedness weakness even weaker. This move looks worse and worse the more you study it. RH made the lineup WORSE, gave a division enemy a free asset, while taking some salary burden off Cleveland, and made it LESS likely that this team was going to win in 2021 and 2022.