Two-Gun Pete

Dude, you're really contorting yourself to justify this. Picking nits isn't really that efficient, in all honesty. Its a straight-line 19% declination in WRC+ for Hernandez over a 4 season trend. Ya don't need calculus, or regression analysis to have seen this coming. And yes, even if you wanna go all "SSS," and pick at Hernandez's 1st half WRC+ numbers, he was at a 96 at the 1st half. But noting that this came with a career anomaly in HR should have raised alarms in terms of what to expect from him. EDIT: I also looked at the splits vs RHP as well: Hernandez: 83 Leury: 101 Escobar: 98 Not only is/was Cesar clearly in decline, but he actually made the lineup WORSE vs our lineup's kryptonite vs RHP.

The bolded is SSS. I too don't actually want to move Vaughn. I also don't think that we'd have a prayer of getting Lux in return for "just" Vaughn, TBH. Maybe Vaughn, + Kimbrel + cash could get Lux? But for as much as White Sox Nation believes in Vaughn, LAD believe MORE in Lux. I agree its not about opening up a slot for Sheets, but Sheets offers this lineup something than none of the other 1B/LF/DH can offer in his LH bat. To me, it isn't "Sheets vs. Vaughn." Its "Vaughn vs Jimenez," in terms of who to move/what can be gotten in return.

And where will they get the other ~60-80 IP from his spot in the rotation, assuming he doesn't (once again) get injured? And, as I mentioned, there will be additional cost to find either another SP, or another high leverage RP.

1. Let's look at the numbers: wrc+ has declined un every year since 2017, with a hiccup upwards in the short 2020 season. 2. This is the very definition of being ripe for regression. When a player is doing something that is SO far off his career norms in the 1st half, regression is often the outcome in the second half. Hed never hit as many HR as he did in the 1st half. Why should you disbelieve the entirety of his career in place of a one time anomaly? (Buying a career anomaly is how you make mistakes in the trade market.) 3. Again, WRC+ for Cesar Hernandez, by year, from the link above: 2017: 111 2018: 100 2019: 91 2020 shortened season: 112 2021: 90 Over the timeframe of 2017-2021, thats a 19% declination in WRC+. Ya don't need some crazy regression analysis to have seen this coming. Hernandez is and has been in decline on a year-over-year basis. His half-to-half splits in 2021 were ripe for regression as well.

How many IP do you think he'll get to next year? Especially, since they did jack and shit to start stretching him out in 2021?

I think that, while we all believe in Vaughn's future, he's a bit redundant in this lineup/roster. He's awesome vs LHP, but we've already got a lot of that. He also sucks ass vs RHP, and unfortunately, we've also already got a lot of that. Looking at his splits, he's been a 68 WRC+ hitter vs RHP. If he makes a 20% leap forward vs RHP, that's still only a WRC+ of ~82. A 30% improvement in WRC+ vs RHP only gets him to an 89. It would take a 50% QUANTUM LEAP forward vs RHP for Vaughn to get his WRC+ to a 102. Now, I believe he can and will get better vs RHP, but will he be able to do it in time for this competitive window? Before Hendriks ages out? Before Giolito signs elsewhere? Before TA signs elsewhere? I dunno. Also, his shitty RHP splits come attached to a guy who really can't field a position. The other 1B/LF/DH types won't return much in trade, IMO. (Eloy and his injuries, Sheets and his lack of prior prospect status, Burger and his fat ass leading him to be perma-injured.) On balance, I think I agree with Chicago White Sox, in that Vaughn might have to be moved, whether we like it or not.

I think that they recognize players at his position, at his age, and at the ~2-ish fWAR level are more commonly available than they realized before the stupid trade. I also think that they finally recognized that Cesar is/was in age-related decline; they should have been able to have seen that beforehand. Oh well.

Agreed. Now, if this org had had, say a ~2-ish fWAR 2B, controllable for awhile at the league minimum, then yes: We could maybe squint and see a way for this org to pony up the cash to secure a solid RFer. Alas, we now will have to pay what, $5-6MM to get a ~2-ish fWAR 2B, AND most likely, send some cash with Kimbrel to get any sort of return. (See, the rest of MLB already know that RH is desperate to move Kimbrell, so he's got jack and shit in terms of negotiating leverage.) Throw in arb raises to other players, and suddenly, this org is up against their likely budgetary restraints. There's also the item of replacing a SP (if Kopech can't do it), or finding another high leverage reliever to replace Kopech. Oh, and BTW, we need players that are capable vs RHP, preferably LHH. Tons of fun here.

I was told that adding an expensive closer at the TDL was going to solve the vs RHP issue in the lineup and the gaping holes in RF and 2nd Base. So no, adding an expensive closer as your centerpiece addition, if in fact this was true, then the SOX were right in their decision-making. Adding an aging 2B whose numbers were ripe for regression was the icing on the cake, amirite?

See the bolded below. Yes they are smart orgs. But any decent player is worthwhile, at the right price, for the right duration, (EDIT) and at the right timing of a team's competitive window. As it pertains to the SOX, I don't believe that either of Semien or Conforto will come at a price that makes sense for their salary structure. If Semien or Conforto "really, really" wanted to win, and would come for a cheap short term deal? Yeah, they'd both make a fuckton of sense. But here's the thing: Players don't hire Boras to be charitable to MLB orgs. They hire Boras, so that they can make every fucking dollar they can extract from the market.

Ok, two questions for the group: 1. Was last night's match our finest hour as a national team? 2. Is away to Jamaica at The Office a "trap game?"

And this is with the SOX playing Jimenez, Sheets, and Vaughn extremely deep, to try to hide their deficiencies. The eye test has been deceptive to some with respect to these three. I think its possible to hide ONE shitty defender in the OF, provided that he hits. But having 3 shitty defenders is/was a bad and dumb idea; it was ONE reason why I didn't rate the 2021 team's chances all that highly. All this said, Conforto isn't likely to be signed here, IMO. We're all right to WANT him to be signed here, but it doesn't seem to fit this FO's M.O.

Our recollections aside, Grandal's current AAV is equal to what he signed for over 1 year in Milwaukee. If the Brewers offered him a pay cut over multiple years as you suggested, then to me, that isn't much of an effort to retain him.

More like the SOX are unlikely to sign him. At the moment, Conforto is being pursued by his current team (NYM), the Braves, the Phillies, and possibly, the Brewers. The SOX tend to do their best work with top FA when there isn't as much competition; the brewers didn't seem to do much to re-sign Grandal, and it was supposedly between the SOX and the (snicker) reds, for example. Conforto doesn't match this FO's M.O, in my view. There are too many other teams interested, the salary structure won't support a longer-term deal, and Boras doesn't give out discounts. I'd be happy to be wrong, but IMO, Conforto is unlikely to sign here. When was the last time Levine reported anything that was interesting, as it pertains to our SOX? Levine sucks, as do much of the local media when it comes to covering MLB, and specifically, the SOX. Levine openly cheers from the press box for his beloved cubs. He's barely better than Mike Kiley when it comes to impartiality and professionalism.

Yes, they're exactly alike: Harper and Machado were unlikely to sign here, just as Conforto and Semien are unlikely to sign here.

First of all, the tweet came from Levine, who knows exactly Jack and Shit about anything related to baseball. He knows LESS THAN nothing about White Sox baseball. Whenever you hear him on the radio, or read his tweets, everyone around him becomes dumber for having seen or heard him. He's only good for fellating his beloved cubs, relating all baseball things to his beloved cubs, and comparing all matters relating to baseball to his beloved cubs. Why, exactly should we give a shit about what he says? What's more, why doesn't his radio station hire someone actually COMPETENT to be it's "baseball expert? I mean, Mark Gonzales was pretty good at covering both teams, and I suspect he'd do a better job than Levine at whatever Levine does. Hell, a blind, drunk monkey knows more about baseball than Levine does. Secondly, while we would all want to re-acquire Semien, I simply don't see this happening. Has anyone competent reported on this, or is this the worthless tweet from old, useless, worthless piece of shit Bruce Levine the only link? This seems like a waste of time discussing, because it seems as (un)likely as Machado signing here. [Is Comforto/Semien this year's "Harpchado?]

Thank you, Mighty Mite for your service, sir. To my brother and sister Marines, belated Happy Birthday as well.

OMFG, this. Exactly this. They had the cover needed to send Kopech down to start 2021, to wit, his injury recovery. All it would have cost was for them to sign an additional RP as a token to take Kopech's spot in the pen to start 2021. But instead, those morons couldn't do what was necessary to protect the club's interests, while helping Kopech to transition to starting. Now, we're back into "wish-and-hope" mode, hoping that he can get stretched out during ST. Now, I hope they've learned something, but I doubt it. I hope that they can find the what, ~$2-3MM to sign an additional RP, to let Crochet get stretched out in MiLB? If signing another RP for a paltry amount can help Crochet get stretched out to a cromulent starter, Crochet could easily recoup the value/dollars spent to let him go down to MiLB.

After the very real fact that Kimbrel was not going to make this team good enough to win anything in 2021, everything you just posted here was my second reason for hating that trade. Anyone could have seen this coming, if you took a look at the roster and the salary structure. It sure does, doesn't it? Squandering assets to not get good enough to win anything shortens windows. They've done this before: in 2014, the (snicker) "brain trust" in the FO took a look at their awesome 73 win team and said to themselves, "all this roster needs is Jeff Samardzija." And so, they stupidly traded a cumulative 24 years of control over 4 prospects for 1 year of mediocrity. In 2016, those same geniuses tool a look at a shitty roster/shitty manager that was starting their fall out of contention and said, "all this roster needs is James Shields!" I forgot what they gave up, but I'm sure it was nothing. After all, its "Big Game" James, amirite? This FO hasn't learned anything, and they never will. I suspect that 2022 will be somewhat disappointing, because they've fucked their financial and roster flexibility through some of the short-sighted choices they've made. By 2023, it'll be one last season before it'll be Giolito's turn to leave Chicago, and then who knows what will happen then? Enjoy this "multiple championships" window, Sox fans.

I didn't say "impossible," did I? Given the state of the team both before and after the TDL, what happened this post season was the most likely outcome. There was no RP/2B combo available @ the TDL to take this team past the others in the AL playoffs, let alone the teams in the NL. Do you disagree?

Fair point; I was trying to abbreviate a long post. Ill attempt to clarify: When it became a rumor, I hated the idea of making a big trade when the team wasn't as good as their rivals. I hated selling low on two youngsters, and squandering 10 years of control. I also hated the clowns who brought us James Shields at the TDL making such a big move in general, because I don't rate KW and RH at all. Better?

Ok, what other evidence did you need? The shitty record vs.winning teams? The shitty road record? The shitty record vs the AL playoff teams? The inferior record vs their pythagorean record? Help us out with exactly what evidence pointed towards this team winning the WS.

1. Incorrect. I hated the trade before it was made. 2. Houston was 5-2 vs the SOX before the TDL, and it wasn't even close. Sure, there were some pieces out with injury, but neither Moncada nor Eloy made the difference. Houston is/was that much better than the SOX, full stop. 3. There's incontrovertible evidence that it was doomed to failure: The SOX got their asses kicked. And it wasn't close enough for a RP, no matter HOW GOOD, to have made the difference. The only difference is that I knew it was doomed to failure beforehand, whereas you drank the kool-aid. 4. Who gives a shit what other teams wanted? The SOX needed much more to be ahead of their rivals at the TDL. LAD only needed a few minor touches to return to the WS. And while you said that RPs are usually "the most valuable pieces at the TDL," you should be MORE concerned with THIS org getting what THIS ORG needs to win. Clearly, it was never an expensive RP, and many of us knew this beforehand. 5. Here's a question for you: Are the SOX at the beginning, middle, or end of their window? If they were at "the last dance," where a Hail Mary, last-ditch trade to try to win "one more time" before the core goes and signs elsewhere, i might have been more supportive of this move. But given that I believe(d) that the SOX are/were more towards the beginning of the window, AND that this team was not as good as its post-season enemies, hated this move with the FIRE of 10,000 Arabian suns. 6. Once again, did you believe that Kimbrel ALONE would have made the difference? If so, please explain. This team was worse than Houston, worse than TB, and possibly, worse than Boston (with Sale coming back). Over in the NL, LAD and SF were flat-out better than this team. By my count, thats 6 teams in the way of a WS. A more conservative approach was warranted, and aiming for a more opportune season was the better move. 7. Well, as I knew beforehand, this team wasn't going to win the WS. And Kimbrel's only been good for ~30IP over the past 4 seasons, so he may not be "the best reliever" anymore. And he's aging, and this payroll can't support 2 expensive closers, with all the other gaping holes in the roster. Oh, and BTW, we paid 10 seasons of control for him.

Wait, so a deal that didn't work, and even IF Kimbrel was lights out, wouldn't have made the Sox better than Houston isn't "stupid?" By all means, do clarify. Because, once again, even if Kimbrel was lights out, this years SOX team was never better than this years trashstros team. And because the trashstros are/were better, this move was doomed to failure from conception. And, to your point, trading 10 years of control for 30 IP is dumb, especially at THIS point in the competitive window. But sure: tell us how this was somehow NOT a dumb trade.

Ok, I have questions: 1. A good FO understands both "talent" and "fit" in players, teams, and coaches. Although Kimbrel had talent once upon a time, where was the fit? Where was the fit for multiple expensive, veteran closers, one who has never "setup?" Where was the fit with a coaching staff that does not use modern bullpen management? 2. A good FO understands life cycles of players/teams and windows. Where was this team in terms of the competitive window, the beginning, middle, or end of the window? If this team is in the beginning of the window, was it wise to squander a decade of control over 2 young players? And where is Kimbrel, relative to HIS age cycle? 3. A good FO understands the financial model of their game and their team. How, exactly, does it make any fucking sense to squander THIS MUCH cash on a bullpen, when there are dire needs elsewhere? How does it make sense to squander money on Kimbrel, while Keuchel is aging out, Rodon will sign elsewhere, and the cupboard looks bare for MiLB SPs in this org? 4. A good FO understands the need to self-scout, and to be HONEST as to where their team is, relative to their enemies. Where, exactly is/was this team, compared to Houston, or Tampa, or LAD? Even if Kimbrel was LIGHTS OUT, was HE ALONE going to make this team better than Houston, or Tampa, or LAD? I think that's it for now. Thanks in advance for your views on the above.