Two-Gun Pete

Unless someone else can show us otherwise, Yermin Mercedes is controllable for 6 years, according to this link. As I understand stand it, he would be under pre-arbitration control for 3 years (perhaps 2 years, if he becomes a "super 2"). Thereafter, he would be salary arbitration eligible for the next 3 years. Then, after 6 years' service on a MLB roster, Yermin Mercedes, at 34 years old, would be eligible to be a free agent. Therefore, as I understand it, this thread, and the thought of "extending Yermin" is a complete and total non-starter. (Even setting aside that the league has yet to get a good scouting report on him and adjust their approach to him, therefore making it premature to assume that this is what Mercedes will be going forward.) If anyone can show us differently about Mercedes' path to free agency to a significant degree from what I understand, I'd welcome their input. Thanks in advance.

Yeah, this is pretty much a non-starter. Yermin's 28 years old. In six years from now, He'll be 34. At which point, it won't be worthwhile to re-sign him. So why bother?

I didn't like the Lynn acquisition, because Lynn is a fat fuck on the wrong side of 33, AND [more importantly, IMO] he's a rental. I would rather that the FO go get their rentals at the TDL than in the offseason; I would have rather used mid-level FA to fill the middle/back end of the rotation, and then make a trade mid-season, if needed. That said, for 2021 [and for 2021 ONLY], at least the Lynn acquisition is defendable. The 2021 team is/was actually in their competitive window, vis a vis having a sufficient "critical mass" of good players to put themselves into position to compete. The Shields and Samardzjia trades were idiotic, moronic, dumb, and each fireable offenses for how fucking stoopid they were. While the Swisher trades were dumb, they weren't in the same zip code of dumb as the Shields and Samardzjia trades. At least it was defendable that the 2008 team finished 1st in the division with Swisher, but even a blind, drunk spider monkey who took a few hits of acid could have seen that the 2014-16 teams DESPERATELY needed to rebuild; neither mediocre SP in Shields nor Samardzjia could have miracled those craptacular teams into the post season.

1. If you can already tell that Dunning is a pedestrian pitcher this early into his career, I congratulate you for your all-seeing ability. That aside, he's still somehow been able to produce more fWAR than the awesome walk machine Dylan Cease over the course of their careers. 2. Holy shit, Chris Bassitt, he of the 1.5 fWAR before TJS, and 4.0 fWAR SINCE TJS [at the league minimum salary] could have PREVENTED the As from making the post-season? Marcus Semien, and his 17.9 fWAR he produced while in Oakland [prior to FA] would have PREVENTED the As from making the post-season?!? Exactly how? Say BTW, what Golden God did those geniuses in the SOX FO get in exchange for giving up ~20 or so fWAR between Bassitt/Semien/Phegley? Did the SOX make the post-season, or did the As make the post-season after that genius move? Did the As end up "mired in mediocrity," or did they laugh their ASSES OFF at the SOX FO? After all, Bassitt [at the league minimum], Semien [at pre-FA prices], and Phegley really fucked the As over, amirite? ...just askin'

1. It isn't just the well-moneyed orgs that do this. Supposedly cash-poor Tampa build depth and versatility into their rosters, which lead to more cost effective teams that punch well above their weight. And this is in the traditionally-tough AL East! On the other end of the spectrum, the defending WS Champs didn't rest on their laurels this offseason. They didn't assume that everyone in their roster would be back, and that everyone would perform to their expectations. They went out and added the premier SP in FA, to extend their competitive advantage over their peers. By contrast, what did KW/RH/JR do, after a whimpering elimination to the first postseason in years? Did they really correct their lack of depth? Did they fix what needed to be fixed? Did they put themselves in position to take advantage of/EXTEND this competitive window? I'm not too sure, just yet. 2. I like your turn of phrase in the bolded. It isn't just "wish casting good health" from your best players. It's also "wish casting" that your players will all perform. Or "wish casting" that Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech/Crochet will all perform, AND improve, AND stay healthy. So let's blow a pile of cash on a luxury purchase in the bullpen, instead, right? And this is something that this FO has been doing for years, wish casting that those shitty teams under Ventura could compete, IF ONLY they added Samardzjia or James Shields, for example. I feel like this is how this org got mired in mediocrity in the first place, and I wonder if they've learned anything over the years or not. 3. I know we're all excited about Rodon's performance last night. But, after half a decade of mediocrity and injury, I reserve the right to doubt him going forward. And after years of bringing up young SPs who then can't hit the broad side of a barn with their FBs, I reserve the right to doubt Cease. So, I remain cautious in my outlook for this season, because of the reality of needing depth, and the lack of this team having any. In any case, to the point of this thread, here's hoping TA gets back in the lineup soon, and starts putting up the numbers we've come to expect from him.

Yes. In a 60 game season in 2020. Because of the yawning volume of innings to be pitched in a 162 game marathon, even Tampa has recognized the need for some length in starts. Ill agree that no one is going back to the days of Lasorda running up 150+ pitch counts any more. But only getting 4IP out of your SPs will lead to ineffectiveness, injury in your bullpen, and mounting losses. Even in today's MLB.

Sure. But if you're going to waste your FA wad on a closer, you'd better be sure your rotation is solid, and that you've got some depth to fall back on. Otherwise, you look stoopid when you as a FO have to resort to the likes of Hamilton for significant playing time in a supposedly "contending year." I fucking HATED the signing, not because I think Hendriks sucks or anything like that. I hated it because it was a dumb buy, based on the glaring holes in the roster. (And, as you said, the financial constraints with this org.) One would have assumed that after moronic acquisitions of closers in the past that didn't work out, that this FO would learn their lessons. Neither Billy Koch, nor David Robertson led this team to contending. Here's hoping it works better for this org this time around. And yeah, TLR needs to use Hendriks more aggressively.

Thats true for the 60 game sprint that was 2020. However, in the 162 game 2019 season, the average was 5.2IP/start. Since that includes both CG gems and Dylan Cease/Reynaldo Lopez 1.1IP, 5BB turds, a 5ish IP start should be the average. While I agree that the game is always changing, I also don't know that it'll ever be fully free of needing a guy to take the ball every 5th day, and give his teams 5+ IP. Tampa tried bullpenning it all season long a few years ago, and it didn't work. They found that to get through 162, they needed guys who could take the ball, & get them 5IP with regularity.

3 years, $54MM to a guy who's on the wrong side of 30, and came from a pitching friendly environment. Your post illustrates why its moronic to blow piles of cash on a closer, when your team has other glaring needs. Its also revealing about this org's inability to learn anything about how the game works. And this is another reason why it was dumb to sign Hendriks. So many things have to go right for a closer to have impact on his team: The SP has to do his job, as does the middle relievers, as well as the offense. Yhen, the manager has to recognize that its not 1995 anymore. I hope to see Hendriks' name in the box score, with a save credited to him when I look up the results tomorrow morning.

Yeah, Madrigal has to turn his play up a few notches, to be sure. But I'm not nearly as concerned about his play, as I am about other things with this team.

I get that. But was it really any worse than Robert's awesome header the other day? In any case, I'm still not convinced that Madrigal is among the top 5 issues with this team.

Huh, I hadn't heard that Madrigal's range was problematic. Or, at least the sample size wasn't yet large enough to determine this. In any case, Madrigal isn't on my list of top 5 issues with this team. [shrugs]

Wait, don't you mean a BB/9IP of 5.8, a K/9IP of 5.8, and a K/BB of 1?

That's the $18MM question.

I did. But I also put more credence into the 5+ seasons of mediocrity and injury we've been treated to by Carlos Rodon, than anything anyone does in spring training. While "hope is not a plan," I'll hope for Carlos Rodon to throw enough strikes to get through 5+ IP, to give the bullpen a chance, in order to give this team a chance to win.

It would have been helpful to have someone in the starting rotation to be able to go, ya know, 5+ IP, other than Giolito. I don't care how talented your bullpen might be. If they're constantly having to carry 4+ IP each and every night, at some point the bullpen loses effectiveness. It also becomes difficult for your 76 year old manager to game plan, if you can't get 5+ IP from anyone in the starting rotation.

Yeah, hoping for Rodon to be this team's losing streak stopper is like asking ME to try to stop Gronkowski from going across the middle. That said, I won't be able to stay up late enough to watch this, so I'll hope for good news in the morning.

Oh, I agree. It would be tough for any team to replace 2 of their top 4 returning WAR position players, in an injury crisis. But, what has been vexing is that the starting rotation has been shit thus far, and has like, LESS depth than the position player side of things. We saw this as an issue back in September, and instead of addressing it, they bought high on a closer. This, even though, like NO ONE would have thought that the bullpen needed an $18MM closer.

Yeah, you beat me to the edit. And again, even as valuable as a utility guy can be, as a percentage of a team's WAR [be it bWAR or fWAR], it pales in comparison to what a starting position player provides. Or the impact of so many other parts of a team that a SP can have on his team mates, like a SP walking the yard, leading to short starts, leading to overuse of a bullpen.

To this, I say: "Correlation is NOT Causation." Some of these are nice correlations between winning and utility types. But I asked for a team that won/contended BECAUSE OF their utility guys. In other words, that a bench player paved the way for their teams to make it/win the WS. Or if you like, CAUSED THEIR TEAM to win/contend. I think we agree that depth and versatility are important. I think you and I, and really, anyone who can see trends in MLB find these things to be more important than the SOX FO think them to be. I think where you and I differ is that you want to believe that a bench player is more important than he really is. Perhaps this is due to recency bias of TA's/Eloy's injuries, and the subsequent elevation of AAAA-types into more prominent roles. No doubt, a MLB team's bench IS important, I'll agree. But take any of these teams you cite, subtract their #4/#5 SPs, and add in 2 walk machines [Cease/Lopez] and an IL HOF Person [Rodon], and I doubt that their mighty benches could have overcome a glaring deficiency. And that's the other part of that post. Kris Bryant, a utility player? Seriously?!? Bogaerts hasn't played any other position, besides SS since 2013. As the kids say, "FOH!"

Ok, so (without being a jerk), I'll ask again: Which recent WS contenders became that way, BECAUSE OF a super utility guy? I happen to agree that depth and versatility are important, and are still undervalued by much of MLB. While JR, et al b**** about not having cash to spend, Tampa and others with less financial firepower routinely skunk the SOX. At the same time, when you stupidly buy high on a closer on the wrong side of 30, whose coming from a pitching-favorable environment, instead of acquiring depth, you can't afford nice pieces like Profar and others.

Ok, I'll play along. Not that I support in any way what this FO did this offseason, BUT: Exactly which recent WS winners/contenders became contenders, solely based on the quality of their utility guys? I get that we're all pissed off right now. And it sucks to have to have a lineup that includes Hamilton and Garcia. But injuries can and do happen. To me, the bigger stories are: 1. That Grandal, Moncada, and Robert have looked ordinary, 2. That the horrific lack of rotational depth is already glaringly obvious, & 3. That the choice to squander their FA wad on a closer instead of on DESPERATELY needed depth looks like a moronic mistake. That said, its early for this season, & there's plenty of time to right the ship. I'll agree that there a lack of depth. But Leury Garcia, and players like him are seldom the reason why a team can or cannot compete.

Yeah, when a pitcher has a reputation for being a walk machine, he's generally not going to get the benefit of the doubt...

We can always count on VA to give us the unvarnished positivity this board sorely lacks.

OK, I'm game. What is this law about? I'd also like to read more about this, from someone who has worked in this area. IMO, too often the media's slant colors how a story is reported, so this is a rare opportunity for us to hear it from someone who has first-hand experience. Thanks in advance, to both of you.