Two-Gun Pete

Both Cease and Kopech had inferior BB/9 down in Charlotte; Cease's BB/9 here in Chicago was a vomit-inducing 5.25 this season. Cease's biggest problem isn't getting people out in MLB if he can't stop walking the yard. If he can't get his BB/9 down, he won't even be in MLB, TBH. Second to his walk issues is, as CWS said, to get more spin on his FB. Now, since 2021 is supposed to be inside the competitive window, this team can't waste time for Cease to figure it out. 2021 won't be as low-pressure for youngsters as 2019 or 2018 were. Either he gets his ass squared away, or there's a seat on a bus in Charlotte for him. And this isn't meant to "crap on" Cease or Kopech. This is simply a recognition that this team is at a different part of the window than they were just a year ago. 2021 should be about results, not potential.

The guys in bold have options, whereas Lopez does not. I think Lopez is either your cheap swingman, or 5th starter, or he's off the team. I don't think that Bauer will end up here, because he will be setting the FA market this offseason to the tune of 9 figures, and 5+ years. I'd be good with Stroman after Keuchel, and another vet ahead of Dunning to start the season.

I think we've learned from TB and especially, from LAD that having a metric fvkc-ton of SP depth is crucial. LAD have lost Greinke, Ryu, and others from their SP depth chart in recent years, and they've kept on trucking. If the SOX had lost either of a Greinke or Ryu-type in the middle of a competitive window, it would likely touch off a rebuild, not another "ho-hum, we're in the LCS again," as it has been for LAD. I think that for roster spots to start the season, its Lopez vs. Rodon, vs. Cease. Rodon's body is made out of glass, and he can't find the strike zone with his FB. At least Lopez has been upright long enough for us to see that he probably sucks. Neither Rodon, nor Lopez have options, so I believe its one or the other. IMO, it should be Lopez, because he's been available. Cease has sucked a horse's ass, and I don't know why some fall all over themselves to give him a pass. BUT, he still has an option, and maybe more competent coaching can help him find the strike zone with a road map. If the SOX can add to SPs through FA, I would ship Cease and his shitload of walks to Charlotte. Kopech is behind Lopez, Cease, AND Dunning in the depth chart at this point. He's your injury replacement call-up option for this season. In 2022 and beyond, if he can stay healthy and throw strikes, then this org can count on him. Until then, he can join Cease in Charlotte.

Why? Why would Cease get a chance over Reylo? They both have had BB/9IP > 5. They both have had HR/9IP > 1.5; I think both were among the 10 worst at those tragic numbers last season, and both have gotten worse, compared to 2019. And exactly what, apart from his "prospect status" has earned Cease another bite of the apple, exactly? He's sucked out loud at baseball, but at least Cease has an option to go get his shit sorted.

I think Cease might start in Charlotte/Schaumburg, because he still has an option. [Or is it 2 options?] Lopez does not have any options remaining, so if he stays with the SOX, it will have to be in Chicago. That aside, both have sucked, and both have gotten worse over the past few seasons. By sending Cease to MiLB to fvkcing find the fvkcing strike zone, maybe he can yet become a provider of IP, and of positive WAR.

I think that if they blow their wad on Bauer, they will have to have either of Lopez or Cease to start the year. However, since they both have strike-throwing allergies, I'm anticipating that Lopez will start the year in the rotation, and go for -1.5 fWAR, then be DFA'ed. Then, Cease would be called up, and likewise walk the yard every 5th day, and go for another -1.5 fWAR. That's how they'd get to a combined -3.0 fWAR over a 162 game season. The net outcome would be a total of 2.0 fWAR for ~$25MM+/year, assuming Bauer would provide +5.0 fWAR.

I think I agree that I like the depth moreso than the top-end quality. Beyond Bauer, there just isn't much "top-end" SP talent this offseason, IMO. I think that if you add +5 fWAR with Bauer, but have to suffer through -3.0 fWAR between Lopez/Cease, this club may not even make it to the postseason. I think that if you take Tampa's lowest 2 SPs in place of Lopez/Cease, that the 2020 SOX may have made it to the ALCS, even WITH renteria and his stupid tactical decisions. I think that Bauer's probable 9-figure contract demands will prevent this team from adding other pieces that will avoid negative WAR in other spots. [#4/5 SPs, perhaps a closer, RF, and perhaps another BP arm.] After all, the negative fWAR piles of trash at the end of the rotation limited the SOX to a mere 3.6 fWAR from the rotation this season. Most of the other top teams did NOT have the top-end performances of Giolito/Keuchel [by fWAR], yet they had more production overall from their rotations. Why? No/fewer shitty, negative WAR SPs than the SOX. As an aside, who is/was Cease's biggest supporter in the org? If it was Coop, I'm ALL IN for trading his @ss and his fvkc-ton of walks the fvkc outta here.

OK, I read this post, and many here take this to mean that the 2021 SOX need a #1, which means "BAUER OR BUST!!!" But, I look at a few teams' staffs, TOP TO BOTTOM: White Sox Rotation Tampa Bay Rotation LAD Rotation Cleveland Rotation If you look at the two WS teams, the White Sox, and what I think is the best rotation in the division, Cleveland, what jumps out to me are the following: 1. By fWAR, only Cleveland had a TOR SP to rival Giolito. The others? TB's top SP by fWAR produced less than even Keuchel, and LAD's top SP only matched Keuchel. 2. [And I think this more important] By fWAR, the SOX had more negative fWAR SPs than the other teams in this sampling. Moreover, the SOX's negative fWAR SPs were more negative than the other teams', except for LAD's one negative fWAR SP. To me, this speaks MORE to the DEPTH of the rotation/avoidance of negative value players in the 26 man roster. And, this has been a running joke with this organization, going back to the "stars-and-scrubs" teams of Sale, et. al. IOW, it isn't/wasn't the dire need for "Top Talent," so much it's the avoidance of player that outright suck at baseball. I happen to believe in Giolito as a TOR SP going forward. I happen to have little faith in Cease or Lopez. Relating this to this offseason/this team's offseason targets, I think DEPTH is the more dire need than "top talent," for top prices. Where this org has gone wrong is to target geezing geezers/"C-level FAs," and moronically thinking that Gio Gonzalez-types are better than they are. So, for me, if you take the SOX rotation from 2020, then: 1. Subtract shitty SPs Dylan Cease [-0.4 fWAR this year] and Reynaldo Lopez [-0.5 fWAR this year], 2. Add above average SPs [call them #3s?] Marcus Stroman [ZIPS 2021 Projection: 3.2 fWAR] and Jose Quintana [ZIPS 2021 Projection: 2.3 fWAR] to the returning SPs from the 2020 WHITE SOX rotation, Then, the 2021 rotation looks a LOT more like the rotations of LAD, Tampa, or Cleveland. To me, this doesn't mean "Bauer or bust." YMMV.

I think this means that Bauer will definitely set the market among SPs. I'd still go with a 3 year deal for Stroman, with somewhere between $15Mm to $18MM/per. (Edit): I previously had been against trading away comp picks to pickup FAs. But, if a comp pick will somewhat suppress Stroman's appeal (in an already-suppressed pandemic market), Im all for it. After all, if Steele Walker (46th pick) was supposedly worth the great Nomar Mazara, wouldn't a ~35th or so pick EASILY be worth Stroman? I think so.

Great work, and great thought put into this. Where I will differ is that I'd see Bauer getting a 9-figure offer, and more like 5+ years. He represents the top of the SP market, and I believe that the top FAs will get their money as usual. Also, at 30 years old, would he want to go back to FA at 34? I dunno. Spotrac had his market value at $21.7MM/per, but that was for last offseason. Bauer's reported market value a year ago. With Kluber, he's 34, and coming off a shoulder injury? [Or was it an elbow?]. NO thanks to him, or ANY geezing geezers who want to come steal money at the end of their careers. We've seen that movie before, and we know how it will end. I also don't know if McCann would take 2/$14MM. My guess is no, but its a guess. OTOH: IF Pederson can be pried away from the west coast, I'd love that contract. I also dunno if at 29 years old, that he's looking for a shorter or longer-term deal. I'd also love the Colome deal. $7MM/per would be less than what was squandered on a number of players in recent memory for the SOX. I dunno what he'll ultimately get, but Spotrac had his value at $14.7MM/per a year ago. Given what is currently available on the open FA market, I don't see other possibilties that will be as attractive as a 32 year old who still looks like he has his FB velo. I think I might go [and these are all wild guesses at this point]: Stroman 3/$54MM + option(s) [$18MM/per] Quintana 2/$24MM + option(s) [$12MM/per] Your Pederson Contract 2/$20MM [$10MM/per], or Puig 1/$7MM + KW's favorite, incentives to keep him in line + option(s) Colome, maybe 2/$24MM + options [$12MM/per] Totals: $52MM added Either way, JR will have to be talked into spending money, AND accepting the reality that no matter what, the White Sox will likely lose money, due to this pandemic. Here's hoping that he will, and that Assistant Team President TLR will approve such spending. Meanwhile, I'm sure they'll find something for RH to do.

It was a fair thought on your part, because Bochy has had some health challenges WRT cardiac conditions. And while these sorts of conditions are easily manageable, it wasn't "a nothingburger," in terms of Bochy's potential candidacy. The fvkcing problem is that there weren't any fvkcing candidates for this job, apart for TLR. Just like with Ventura or Renteria. With respect to the secondary coach hirings, they'll do fvkc-all to prevent TLR from making demands of JR that can fvkc this competitive window. Like stupid trades that are "win now" moves, but squander finite MiLB resources. I'm still in the "rage" portion of accepting White Sox stupidity, so it'll take me awhile to get to the "desolate from hope" stage.

As others have said, a comparative, competitive process in hiring allows an org to gain insight into their OWN processes, as well as industry standards, as well as finding the right person for the job. [Note the order in which these things were listed in the previous sentence.] They didn't even try to do a search. As usual. Had they interviewed TLR, Bochy, Hinch, Cora, Alomar, Quatraro, and hell, even Ozzie, they could have gotten a better sense of where THEY are as an org, and where other industry leaders are as well. But they didn't. Which will fvkc up this org about 10 different ways.

This has nothing to do with this moronic move of hiring an ancient fvkc as manager. NO offense, but it may be best to go wank off to the flag issue elsewhere. And I say this as a Vet speaking to a Vet.

No. He said that he WAS interested, but hadn't heard from the White Sox.

As you and I have detailed, this is EXACTLY what those dumb motherfvkcers do. They don't bother with a search, and they don't understand the value of it. I can't wait until the day comes that neither JR, nor KW, nor RH are involved in running this team into the ground. I eagerly await the day that modern, competent front office management comes to the South Side.

OK, so I took overnight to cool down from the RAGING FIRE of 10,000 Suns' worth of hatred of this move. And, I still fvkcing hate this shit. First of all, this is "SO White Sox." Instead of having a competitive process, they [meaning JR] decided who HE wanted as manager, and they just "named him," without so much as a comparative process. Had they interviewed: 1. TLR and Bochy ["Elder Statesmen" group], AND 2. Hinch and Cora ["Cheating Cheaters" group], AND 3. Alomar and Quatraro (sp?) ["Up-And-Comers" group], and then decided that TLR was the "best choice," then I would somewhat be at peace with it. But, by all we now know, neither Hinch, nor Cora, nor Bochy, nor anyone else was interviewed. This is the SAME moronic process that gave us Ventura and Renteria as managers. There hasn't been a competitive, comparative process since Guillen vs. Gaston, now 17 fvkcing years ago. They've learned NOTHING, and this hire will likely result in failure. Secondly, I hate what hiring a geezing geezer will do to the team and it's processes. A 76 year old man shouldn't buy green bananas, let alone think LOGICALLY about this organization's future 3 or 4 or 5 years hence. In other words, he'll think about the NOW, and ONLY the NOW, not about an entire window of competition, much like many boomers think about climate change today. At the same time, him being BFF with JR means that the organizational structure will be as convoluted as a polygamist-mormon's family tree. Basically, TLR already has the ear of JR, whereas his [nominal] boss has to ask KW to ask JR. So, if TLR gets the moronic idea to trade Kopech for Matt Carpenter, straight up, Michael Kopech will be helping St Louis for a decade. This will fvkc up this window's duration. Lastly, YES, I think a blind, drunk monkey could be better at the tactical and strategic parts of the game than RR. I think a lifelong drunken 76 year old will be better than RR as well. But I don't know if he will be the BEST possible option, and we will never know that, because those @ssholes didn't bother to interview anyone else. At the same time, we know that TLR's teams feuded with each other, and he is out of touch as well. If it hasn't been started yet, there should be a poll for who will TLR feud with, and who will he try to run out of town. Because it is inevitable, based on 30+ years of his work history. On balance, this is "SO White Sox," in that they self-sabotaged themselves. Again. Sure, they'll "be better next season" than they were last season. But, in true White Sox fashion, they failed to make THE BEST choice based on all of the available information. And, the organization will suffer as a result. I won't stop following my lifelong favorite team. But I know I probably won't get a ticket package for 2021.

Yeah, they really suck.

Who's higher/comparable to him among SPs THIS offseason? Often, what a player can achieve in FA comes down to timing, and the fact that he may be "THE BEST FA" in a given offseason. Also, Wheeler got 5/$118MM. IMO, if Bauer signs that, this club will be limited in what else they can do this offseason. For Bauer, he's 30 years old. This will likely be his one chance to cash in. For him to sign another 1 year deal is him risking his one chance to do so. Neither he, nor his agent (Boras) will give any discounts. So, he's going to want 5 or more years; any multiyear offer thats fewer than that is likely a non-starter. Given his age and where he is in his career, he shouldn't sign a shorter deal, if he wants to maximize what he can get in FA. And again, this org has yet to sign a $100MM+ offer to a FA, pitcher or not. And equally important, this org doesn't like to sign long term contracts to pitchers. For all of these reasons (and others), Bauer ain't signing here. Yes, the SOX "could," sign him. Maybe the SOX "should" sign him. And sure, for many posters, if they were JR, they "would" sign him. But it ain't gonna happen.

Yeah, I had to re-check why I didn't want him. Ozuna hadn't played RF since 2017, and in that season, he did so for all of 1.1 innings. This year, he played all of 17 innings in RF, and he graded out poorly at the position. He's not a RFer. Agreed that I'd rather spend on TWO SPs, and a closer. Looking at the FA closers list, it probably should be Colome, since I don't really see anyone else who should be worth a premium at that position.

Nah, just tired of reading the same thing every offseason about every top FA year after year after year after year. Remember, "Harpchado?" Yeah, neither of those guys signed here, and Bauer ain't signing here, either.

(Checks roster) Did he actually sign here, but change his name to Gio Gonzalez? Yeah, Bauer ain't signing here.

Hey, live in the real world, or delude yourself. Its entirely up to you. Has this org ever signed anyone to a $150MM+ contract? Does this org like long term contracts for pitchers? Just asking.

Here's your Bauer update: He ain't coming here, any more than Gerrit Cole, or Harper, or Machado. Since it is an abject waste of time discussing Bauer coming here, some want to defend a below average player.

Ok. I understand your view. But your view is either misinformed, or ill-informed. With respect to the bolded, there are two readily available defensive metrics that take into account what you are complaining about: Inside Edge Fielding Stats Here, they attempt to classify defensive plays as "Routine," "Likely," "Even," "Unlikely," "Remote," and "Impossible." Range Runs, which measures how many balls an outfielder gets to. Needless to say, Mazara has been below average on both measures. These metrics directly measure an OFer's range/ability to get to balls. With respect to the underlined, WAR directly measures whether or not a player has been average or not at his position. Here again, the metric shows that Mazara has been a below average player. That aside, no team would trade away an average starting RFer for Walker.

Yeah, after seeing geezing geezers like Gio Gonzalez and Encarnacion steal money, I've become an agist when it comes to FA. I'd say no to Kluber, unless Stroman & Q aren't available to be signed.